An adaptive approach to implementing bivariate group sequential clinical trial designs

In clinical trials, situations often arise where more than one response from each patient is of interest; and it is required that any decision to stop the study be based upon some or all of these measures simultaneously. Theory for the design of sequential experiments with simultaneous bivariate responses is described by Jennison and Turnbull (Jennison, C., Turnbull, B. W. (1993). Group sequential tests for bivariate response: interim analyses of clinical trials with both efficacy and safety endpoints. Biometrics 49:741-752) and Cook and Farewell (Cook, R. J., Farewell, V. T. (1994). Guidelines for monitoring efficacy and toxicity responses in clinical trials. Biometrics 50:1146-1152) in the context of one efficacy and one safety response. These expositions are in terms of normally distributed data with known covariance. The methods proposed require specification of the correlation, ρ between test statistics monitored as part of the sequential test. It can be difficult to quantify ρ and previous authors have suggested simply taking the lowest plausible value, as this will guarantee power. This paper begins with an illustration of the effect that inappropriate specification of ρ can have on the preservation of trial error rates. It is shown that both the type I error and the power can be adversely affected. As a possible solution to this problem, formulas are provided for the calculation of correlation from data collected as part of the trial. An adaptive approach is proposed and evaluated that makes use of these formulas and an example is provided to illustrate the method. Attention is restricted to the bivariate case for ease of computation, although the formulas derived are applicable in the general multivariate case.

The effect of selective decontamination of the digestive tract on mortality in multiple trauma patients: a multicenter randomized controlled trial

Objective: Evaluation of selective decontamination of the digestive tract (SDD) on late mortality in ventilated trauma patients in an intensive care unit (ICU). Methods: A multicenter, randomized controlled trial was undertaken in 401 trauma patients with Hospital Trauma Index-Injury Severity Score of 16 or higher. Patients were randomized to control (n = 200) or SDD (n = 201), using polymyxin E, tobramycin, and amphotericin B in throat and gut throughout ICU treatment combined with cefotaxime for 4 days. Primary endpoint was late mortality excluding early death from hemorrhage or craniocerebral injury. Secondary endpoints were infection and organ dysfunction. Results: Mortality was 20.9% with SDD and 22.0% in controls. Overall late mortality was 15.3% (57/372) as 29 patients died from cerebral injury, 16 SDD and 13 control. The odds ratio (95% confidence intervals) of late mortality for SDD relative to control was 0.75 (0.40-1.37), corresponding to estimates of 13.4% SDD and 17.2% control. The overall infection rate was reduced in the test group (48.8% vs. 61.0%). SDD reduced lower airway infections (30.9% vs. 50.0%) and bloodstream infections due to aerobic Gram-negative bacilli (2.5% vs. 7.5%). No difference in organ dysfunction was found. Concluson: This study demonstrates that SDD significantly reduces infection in multiple trauma, although this RCT in 401 patients was underpowered to detect a mortality benefit.

Decision-making in a phase II clinical trial: a new approach combining Bayesian and frequentist concepts

The aim of a phase H clinical trial is to decide whether or not to develop an experimental therapy further through phase III clinical evaluation. In this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to the phase H trial, although we assume that subsequent phase III clinical trials will hat,e standard frequentist analyses. The decision whether to conduct the phase III trial is based on the posterior predictive probability of a significant result being obtained. This fusion of Bayesian and frequentist techniques accepts the current paradigm for expressing objective evidence of therapeutic value, while optimizing the form of the phase II investigation that leads to it. By using prior information, we can assess whether a phase II study is needed at all, and how much or what sort of evidence is required. The proposed approach is illustrated by the design of a phase II clinical trial of a multi-drug resistance modulator used in combination with standard chemotherapy in the treatment of metastatic breast cancer. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An illustration of the modelling of cost and efficacy data from a clinical trial

Health care providers, purchasers and policy makers need to make informed decisions regarding the provision of cost-effective care. When a new health care intervention is to be compared with the current standard, an economic evaluation alongside an evaluation of health benefits provides useful information for the decision making process. We consider the information on cost-effectiveness which arises from an individual clinical trial comparing the two interventions. Recent methods for conducting a cost-effectiveness analysis for a clinical trial have focused on the net benefit parameter. The net benefit parameter, a function of costs and health benefits, is positive if the new intervention is cost-effective compared with the standard. In this paper we describe frequentist and Bayesian approaches to cost-effectiveness analysis which have been suggested in the literature and apply them to data from a clinical trial comparing laparoscopic surgery with open mesh surgery for the repair of inguinal hernias. We extend the Bayesian model to allow the total cost to be divided into a number of different components. The advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches are discussed. In January 2001, NICE issued guidance on the type of surgery to be used for inguinal hernia repair. We discuss our example in the light of this information. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Using historical lesion volume data in the design of a new phase II clinical trial in acute stroke

Background and Purpose-Clinical research into the treatment of acute stroke is complicated, is costly, and has often been unsuccessful. Developments in imaging technology based on computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging scans offer opportunities for screening experimental therapies during phase II testing so as to deliver only the most promising interventions to phase III. We discuss the design and the appropriate sample size for phase II studies in stroke based on lesion volume. Methods-Determination of the relation between analyses of lesion volumes and of neurologic outcomes is illustrated using data from placebo trial patients from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive. The size of an effect on lesion volume that would lead to a clinically relevant treatment effect in terms of a measure, such as modified Rankin score (mRS), is found. The sample size to detect that magnitude of effect on lesion volume is then calculated. Simulation is used to evaluate different criteria for proceeding from phase II to phase III. Results-The odds ratios for mRS correspond roughly to the square root of odds ratios for lesion volume, implying that for equivalent power specifications, sample sizes based on lesion volumes should be about one fourth of those based on mRS. Relaxation of power requirements, appropriate for phase II, lead to further sample size reductions. For example, a phase III trial comparing a novel treatment with placebo with a total sample size of 1518 patients might be motivated from a phase II trial of 126 patients comparing the same 2 treatment arms. Discussion-Definitive phase III trials in stroke should aim to demonstrate significant effects of treatment on clinical outcomes. However, more direct outcomes such as lesion volume can be useful in phase II for determining whether such phase III trials should be undertaken in the first place. (Stroke. 2009;40:1347-1352.)

A Bayesian approach for dose-escalation in a phase I clinical trial incorporating pharmacodynamic endpoints

Bayesian decision procedures have already been proposed for and implemented in Phase I dose-escalation studies in healthy volunteers. The procedures have been based on pharmacokinetic responses reflecting the concentration of the drug in blood plasma and are conducted to learn about the dose-response relationship while avoiding excessive concentrations. However, in many dose-escalation studies, pharmacodynamic endpoints such as heart rate or blood pressure are observed, and it is these that should be used to control dose-escalation. These endpoints introduce additional complexity into the modeling of the problem relative to pharmacokinetic responses. Firstly, there are responses available following placebo administrations. Secondly, the pharmacodynamic responses are related directly to measurable plasma concentrations, which in turn are related to dose. Motivated by experience of data from a real study conducted in a conventional manner, this paper presents and evaluates a Bayesian procedure devised for the simultaneous monitoring of pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic responses. Account is also taken of the incidence of adverse events. Following logarithmic transformations, a linear model is used to relate dose to the pharmacokinetic endpoint and a quadratic model to relate the latter to the pharmacodynamic endpoint. A logistic model is used to relate the pharmacokinetic endpoint to the risk of an adverse event.

Flavonoids and cognitive function: a review of human randomized controlled trial studies and recommendations for future studies

Evidence in support of the neuroprotective effects of flavonoids has increased significantly in recent years, although to date much of this evidence has emerged from animal rather than human studies. Nonetheless, with a view to making recommendations for future good practice, we review 15 existing human dietary intervention studies that have examined the effects of particular types of flavonoid on cognitive performance. The studies employed a total of 55 different cognitive tests covering a broad range of cognitive domains. Most studies incorporated at least one measure of executive function/working memory, with nine reporting significant improvements in performance as a function of flavonoid supplementation compared to a control group. However, some domains were overlooked completely (e.g. implicit memory, prospective memory), and for the most part there was little consistency in terms of the particular cognitive tests used making across study comparisons difficult. Furthermore, there was some confusion concerning what aspects of cognitive function particular tests were actually measuring. Overall, while initial results are encouraging, future studies need to pay careful attention when selecting cognitive measures, especially in terms of ensuring that tasks are actually sensitive enough to detect treatment effects.

A randomised clinical trial to assess the effect of total enteral and total parenteral nutritional support on metabolic, inflammatory and oxidative markers in patients with predicted severe acute pancreatitis (APACHE II >= 66)

Background: Total enteral nutrition (TEN) within 48 h of admission has recently been shown to be safe and efficacious as part of the management of severe acute pancreatitis. Our aim was to ascertain the safety of immediate TEN in these patients and the effect of TEN on systemic inflammation, psychological state, oxidative stress, plasma glutamine levels and endotoxaemia. Methods: Patients admitted with predicted severe acute pancreatitis (APACHE II score 15) were randomised to total enteral (TEN; n = 8) or total parenteral nutrition (TPN; n = 9). Measurements of systemic inflammation (C-reactive protein), fatigue ( visual analogue scale), oxidative stress ( plasma thiobarbituric acid- reactive substances), plasma glutamine and anti-endotoxin IgG and IgM antibody concentrations were made on admission and repeated on days 3 and 7 thereafter. Clinical progress was monitored using APACHE II score. Organ failure and complications were recorded. Results: All patients tolerated the feeding regime well with few nutrition-related complications. Fatigue improved in both groups but more rapidly in the TEN group. Oxidative stress was high on admission and rose by similar amounts in both groups. Plasma glutamine concentrations did not change significantly in either group. In the TPN group, 3 patients developed respiratory failure and 3 developed non-respiratory single organ failure. There were no such complications in the TEN group. Hospital stay was shorter in the TEN group [ 7 (4-14) vs. 10 (7-26) days; p = 0.05] as was time to passing flatus and time to opening bowels [1 (0-2) vs. 2 (1-5) days; p = 0.01]. The cost of TEN was considerably less than of TPN. Conclusion: Immediate institution of nutritional support in the form of TEN is safe in predicted severe acute pancreatitis. It is as safe and as efficacious as TPN and may be beneficial in the clinical course of this disease. Copyright (C) 2003 S. Karger AG, Basel and IAP.

Can a short period of micronutrient supplementation in older institutionalized people improve response to influenza vaccine? A randomized, controlled trial

OBJECTIVES: To test the hypothesis that a micronutrient supplement can improve seroconversion after influenza immunization in older institutionalized people. DESIGN: Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study. SETTING: Nursing and residential homes in Liverpool, United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: One hundred sixty-four residents aged 60 and older from 31 homes were initially randomized; of these, 119 (72.6%) completed the study. INTERVENTION: Participants were randomized to receive a micronutrient supplement providing the reference nutrient intake for all vitamins and trace elements or identical placebo. Tablets were taken over an 8-week period during September and October 2000; influenza vaccine was administered 4 weeks after their commencement. MEASUREMENTS: The hemagglutination-inhibiting antibody response as defined by a fourfold or greater titer rise over 4 weeks and assessed separately for each of the three antigens contained in the 2000/2001 influenza vaccine (A/New Caledonia/20/99 (H1N1), A/Moscow/10/99 (H3N2), B/Beijing/184/93 (B)). RESULTS: Despite a significant increase in serum concentrations of vitamins A, C, D-3, E, folate, and selenium in the supplemented group, there was no significant difference between groups (supplemented vs placebo, respectively) in the proportion of participants seroconverting to H1N1 (41% vs 49%, P=.374), H3N2 (49% vs 58%, P=.343), or B (41% vs 40%, P=.944). CONCLUSION: A micronutrient supplement providing the reference nutrient intake administered over 8 weeks had no beneficial effect on antibody response to influenza vaccine in older people living in long-term care.

Cognitive behaviour therapy for low self-esteem: A preliminary randomized controlled trial in a primary care setting

Background and Objectives Low self-esteem (LSE) is associated with psychiatric disorder, and is distressing and debilitating in its own right. Hence, it is frequent target for treatment in cognitive behavioural interventions, yet it has rarely been the primary focus for intervention. This paper reports on a preliminary randomized controlled trial of cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) for LSE using Fennell’s (1997) cognitive conceptualisation and transdiagnostic treatment approach ( [Fennell, 1997] and [Fennell, 1999]). Methods Twenty-two participants were randomly allocated to either immediate treatment (IT) (n = 11) or to a waitlist condition (WL) (n = 11). Treatment consisted of 10 sessions of individual CBT accompanied by workbooks. Participants allocated to the WL condition received the CBT intervention once the waitlist period was completed and all participants were followed up 11 weeks after completing CBT. Results The IT group showed significantly better functioning than the WL group on measures of LSE, overall functioning and depression and had fewer psychiatric diagnoses at the end of treatment. The WL group showed the same pattern of response to CBT as the group who had received CBT immediately. All treatment gains were maintained at follow-up assessment. Limitations The sample size is small and consists mainly of women with a high level of educational attainment and the follow-up period was relatively short. Conclusions These preliminary findings suggest that a focused, brief CBT intervention can be effective in treating LSE and associated symptoms and diagnoses in a clinically representative group of individuals with a range of different and co-morbid disorders.

Acute ingestion of beetroot bread increases endothelium-independent vasodilation and lowers diastolic blood pressure in healthy men: a randomized controlled trial

Dietary nitrate, from beetroot, has been reported to lower blood pressure (BP) by the sequential reduction of nitrate to nitrite and further to NO in the circulation. However, the impact of beetroot on microvascular vasodilation and arterial stiffness is unknown. In addition, beetroot is consumed by only 4.5% of the UK population, whereas bread is a staple component of the diet. Thus, we investigated the acute effects of beetroot bread (BB) on microvascular vasodilation, arterial stiffness, and BP in healthy participants. Twenty-three healthy men received 200 g bread containing 100 g beetroot (1.1 mmol nitrate) or 200 g control white bread (CB; 0 g beetroot, 0.01 mmol nitrate) in an acute, randomized, open-label, controlled crossover trial. The primary outcome was postprandial microvascular vasodilation measured by laser Doppler iontophoresis and the secondary outcomes were arterial stiffness measured by Pulse Wave Analysis and Velocity and ambulatory BP measured at regular intervals for a total period of 6 h. Plasma nitrate and nitrite were measured at regular intervals for a total period of 7 h. The incremental area under the curve (0-6 h after ingestion of bread) for endothelium-independent vasodilation was greater (P = 0.017) and lower for diastolic BP (DBP; P = 0.032) but not systolic (P = 0.99) BP after BB compared with CB. These effects occurred in conjunction with increases in plasma and urinary nitrate (P < 0.0001) and nitrite (P < 0.001). BB acutely increased endothelium-independent vasodilation and decreased DBP. Therefore, enriching bread with beetroot may be a suitable vehicle to increase intakes of cardioprotective beetroot in the diet and may provide new therapeutic perspectives in the management of hypertension.

Apolipoprotein e genotype has a modest impact on the postprandial plasma response to meals of varying fat composition in healthy men in a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND:Apolioprotein E (APOE) genotype is reported to influence a person's fasting lipid profile and potentially the response to dietary fat manipulation. The impact of APOE genotype on the responsiveness to meals of varying fat composition is unknown. OBJECTIVE:We examined the effect of meals containing 50 g of fat rich in saturated fatty acids (SFAs), unsaturated fatty acids (UNSATs), or SFAs with fish oil (SFA-FO) on postprandial lipemia. METHOD:A randomized, controlled, test meal study was performed in men recruited according to the APOE genotype (n = 10 APOE3/3, n = 11 APOE3/E4). RESULTS:For the serum apoE response (meal × genotype interaction P = 0.038), concentrations were on average 8% lower after the UNSAT than the SFA-FO meal in APOE4 carriers (P = 0.015) only. In the genotype groups combined, there was a delay in the time to reach maximum triacylglycerol (TG) concentration (mean ± SEM: 313 ± 25 vs. 266 ± 27 min) and higher maximum nonesterified fatty acid (0.73 ± 0.05 vs. 0.60 ± 0.03 mmol/L) and glucose (7.92 ± 0.22 vs. 7.25 ± 0.22 mmol/L) concentrations after the SFA than the UNSAT meal, respectively (P ≤ 0.05). In the Svedberg flotation rate 60-400 TG-rich lipoprotein fraction, meal × genotype interactions were observed for incremental area under the curve (IAUC) for the TG (P = 0.038) and apoE (P = 0.016) responses with a 58% lower apoE IAUC after the UNSAT than the SFA meal (P = 0.017) in the E4 carriers. CONCLUSIONS:Our data indicate that APOE genotype had a modest impact on the postprandial response to meals of varying fat composition in normolipidemic men. The physiologic importance of greater apoE concentrations after the SFA-rich meals in APOE4 carriers may reflect an impact on TG-rich lipoprotein clearance from the circulation. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01522482.