967 resultados para Railroad safety, Bayesian methods, Accident modification factor, Countermeasure selection


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Background: Universities worldwide are seeking objective measures for the assessment of their faculties` research products to evaluate them and to attain prestige. Despite concerns, the impact factors (IF) of journals where faculties publish have been adopted. Research objective: The study aims to explore conditions created within five countries as a result of policies requiring or not requiring faculty to publish in high IF journals, and the extent to which these facilitated or hindered the development of nursing science. Design: The design was a multiple case study of Brazil, Taiwan, Thailand (with IF policies, Group A), United Kingdom and the United States (no IF policies, Group B). Key informants from each country were identified to assist in subject recruitment. Methods: A questionnaire was developed for data collection. The study was approved by a human subject review committee. Five faculty members of senior rank from each country participated. All communication occurred electronically. Findings: Groups A and B countries differed on who used the policy and the purposes for which it was used. There were both similarities and differences across the five countries with respect to hurdles, scholar behaviour, publishing locally vs. internationally, views of their science, steps taken to internationalize their journals. Conclusions: In group A countries, Taiwan seemed most successful in developing its scholarship. Group B countries have continued their scientific progress without such policies. IF policies were not necessary motivators of scholarship; factors such as qualified nurse scientists, the resource base in the country, may be critical factors in supporting science development.

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Motivation: Understanding the patterns of association between polymorphisms at different loci in a population ( linkage disequilibrium, LD) is of fundamental importance in various genetic studies. Many coefficients were proposed for measuring the degree of LD, but they provide only a static view of the current LD structure. Generative models (GMs) were proposed to go beyond these measures, giving not only a description of the actual LD structure but also a tool to help understanding the process that generated such structure. GMs based in coalescent theory have been the most appealing because they link LD to evolutionary factors. Nevertheless, the inference and parameter estimation of such models is still computationally challenging. Results: We present a more practical method to build GM that describe LD. The method is based on learning weighted Bayesian network structures from haplotype data, extracting equivalence structure classes and using them to model LD. The results obtained in public data from the HapMap database showed that the method is a promising tool for modeling LD. The associations represented by the learned models are correlated with the traditional measure of LD D`. The method was able to represent LD blocks found by standard tools. The granularity of the association blocks and the readability of the models can be controlled in the method. The results suggest that the causality information gained by our method can be useful to tell about the conservability of the genetic markers and to guide the selection of subset of representative markers.

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The motivation for this research is to make a comparison between dynamic results of a free railway wheelset derailment and safety limits. For this purpose, a numerical simulation of a wheelset derailment submitted to increasing lateral force is used to compare with the safety limit, using different criteria. A simplified wheelset model is used to simulate derailments with different adhesion conditions. The contact force components, including the longitudinal and spin effects, are identified in a steady-state condition on the verge of a derailment. The contact force ratios are used in a three-dimensional (3D) analytical formula to calculate the safety limits. Simulation results obtained with two contact methods were compared with the published results and the safety limit was identified with the two criteria. Results confirm Nadal`s conservative aspect and show that safety 3D analytical formula presents slightly higher safety limits for lower friction coefficients and smaller limits for high friction, in comparison with the simulation results with Fastsim.

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The purpose of this article is to present a quantitative analysis of the human failure contribution in the collision and/or grounding of oil tankers, considering the recommendation of the ""Guidelines for Formal Safety Assessment"" of the International Maritime Organization. Initially, the employed methodology is presented, emphasizing the use of the technique for human error prediction to reach the desired objective. Later, this methodology is applied to a ship operating on the Brazilian coast and, thereafter, the procedure to isolate the human actions with the greatest potential to reduce the risk of an accident is described. Finally, the management and organizational factors presented in the ""International Safety Management Code"" are associated with these selected actions. Therefore, an operator will be able to decide where to work in order to obtain an effective reduction in the probability of accidents. Even though this study does not present a new methodology, it can be considered as a reference in the human reliability analysis for the maritime industry, which, in spite of having some guides for risk analysis, has few studies related to human reliability effectively applied to the sector.

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This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.

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Background and objective: Patients with COPD can have impaired diaphragm mechanics. A new method of assessing the mobility of the diaphragm, using ultrasound, has recently been validated. This study evaluated the relationship between pulmonary function and diaphragm mobility, as well as that between respiratory muscle strength and diaphragm mobility, in COPD patients. Methods: COPD patients with pulmonary hyperinflation (n = 54) and healthy subjects (n = 20) were studied. Patients were tested for pulmonary function, maximal respiratory pressures and diaphragm mobility using ultrasound to measure the craniocaudal displacement of the left branch of the portal vein. Results: COPD patients had less diaphragm mobility than did healthy individuals (36.5 +/- 10.9 mm vs 46.3 +/- 9.5 mm, P = 0.001). In COPD patients, diaphragm mobility correlated strongly with pulmonary function parameters that quantify air trapping (RV: r = -0.60, P < 0.001; RV/TLC: r = -0.76, P < 0.001), moderately with airway obstruction (FEV1: r = 0.55, P < 0.001; airway resistance: r = -0.32, P = 0.02) and weakly with pulmonary hyperinflation (TLC: r = -0.28, P = 0.04). No relationship was observed between diaphragm mobility and respiratory muscle strength (maximal inspiratory pressure: r = -0.11, P = 0.43; maximal expiratory pressure: r = 0.03, P = 0.80). Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that the reduction in diaphragm mobility in COPD patients is mainly due to air trapping and is not influenced by respiratory muscle strength or pulmonary hyperinflation.

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Objective-Nitro-fatty acids (NO(2)-FAs) are emerging as a new class of cell signaling mediators. Because NO(2)-FAs are found in the vascular compartment and their impact on vascularization remains unknown, we aimed to investigate the role of NO(2)-FAs in angiogenesis. Methods and Results-The effects of nitrolinoleic acid and nitrooleic acid were evaluated on migration of endothelial cell (EC) in vitro, EC sprouting ex vivo, and angiogenesis in the chorioallantoic membrane assay in vivo. At 10 mu mol/L, both NO(2)-FAs induced EC migration and the formation of sprouts and promoted angiogenesis in vivo in an NO-dependent manner. In addition, NO(2)-FAs increased intracellular NO concentration, upregulated protein expression of the hypoxia inducible factor-1 alpha (HIF-1 alpha) transcription factor by an NO-mediated mechanism, and induced expression of HIF-1 alpha target genes, such as vascular endothelial growth factor, glucose transporter-1, and adrenomedullin. Compared with typical NO donors such as spermine-NONOate and deta-NONOate, NO(2)-FAs were slightly less potent inducers of EC migration and HIF-1 alpha expression. Short hairpin RNA-mediated knockdown of HIF-1 alpha attenuated the induction of vascular endothelial growth factor mRNA expression and EC migration stimulated by NO(2)-FAs. Conclusion-Our data disclose a novel physiological role for NO(2)-FAs, indicating that these compounds induce angiogenesis in an NO-dependent mechanism via activation of HIF-1 alpha. (Arterioscler Thromb Vasc Biol. 2011;31:1360-1367.)

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Infections caused by Corynebacterium diphtheriae frequently induce situations in which very small doses of antigens injected intradermally can cause strong inflammatory reactions. This bacterium secretes the diphtheria toxin (DT), a virulence factor that can be lethal to the human organism at doses below 0.1 mu g/kg of body weight. The present work proposes alternative methods of DT purification using affinity chromatography and of DT detoxification through conjugating with the polymer methoxypolyethylene glycol activated (mPEG). Tests were performed to evaluate: the formation of edemas and the presence of dermonecrotic activity, in vitro cytotoxicity to Vero cells, the neutralizing activity of serum from guinea pigs immunized with the diphtheria toxoid inactivated with mPEG, and the immunogenic activity of the purified and modified toxin. The results indicated that purification with Blue Sepharose was an efficient method, yielding antigen purity equivalent to 2600 Lf/mg of protein nitrogen. The modification of the Purified Toxin with mPEG did not result in the formation of edema or necrosis although it was immunogenic and stimulated the formation of antibodies that could neutralize the Purified Toxin. The toxoid obtained from the purified toxin maintained its immunogenic characteristics, inducing antibodies with neutralizing activity; edema and necrosis were still observed, however. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Farnesol (FOH) is a non-sterol isoprenoid produced by dephosphorylation of farnesyl pyrophosphate, a catabolite of the cholesterol biosynthetic pathway. These isoprenoids inhibit proliferation and induce apoptosis. It has been shown previously that FOH triggers morphological features characteristic of apoptosis in the filamentous fungus Aspergillus nidulans. Here, we investigate which pathways are influenced through FOH by examining the transcriptional profile of A. nidulans exposed to this isoprenoid. We observed decreased mRNA abundance of several genes involved in RNA processing and modification, transcription, translation, ribosomal structure and biogenesis, amino acid transport and metabolism, and ergosterol biosynthesis. We also observed increased mRNA expression of genes encoding a number of mitochondrial proteins and characterized in detail one of them, the aifA, encoding the Apoptosis-Inducing Factor (AIF)-like mitochondrial oxidoreductase. The Delta aifA mutant is more sensitive to FOH (about 8.0% and 0% survival when exposed to 10 and 100 mu M FOH respectively) than the wild type (about 97% and 3% survival when exposed to 10 and 100 mu M FOH respectively). These results suggest that AifA is possibly important for decreasing the effects of FOH and reactive oxygen species. Furthermore, we showed an involvement of autophagy and protein kinase C in A. nidulans FOH-induced apoptosis.

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Some of the world's most devastating diseases are transmitted by arthropod vectors. Attempts to control these arthropods are currently being challenged by the widespread appearance of insecticide resistance. It is therefore desirable to develop alternative strategies to complement existing methods of vector control. In this review, Charles Beard, Scott O'Neill, Robert Tesh, Frank Richards and Serap Aksoy present an approach for introducing foreign genes into insects in order to confer refractoriness to vector populations, ie. the inability to transmit disease-causing agents. This approach aims to express foreign anti-parasitic or anti-viral gene products in symbiotic bacteria harbored by insects. The potential use of naturally occurring symbiont-based mechanisms in the spread of such refractory phenotypes is also discussed.

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Background and aims-The colons of patients with pneumatosis cystoides coli produce excessive H-2. Exposure to alkyl halides could explain this. Six consecutive patients who had pneumatosis cystoides coli while taking chloral hydrate (1-5+ g/day) are reported. Patients 2 and 3 were investigated after they had ceased chloral hydrate treatment. One produced methane, the other did not. (Pneumatosis cystoides coli patients are non-methanogenic according to the literature.) Both had overnight fasting breath H-2 of less than 10 ppm. A literature review disclosed just one patient who was using chloral at the time of diagnosed pneumatosis cystoides coli, but an epidemic of the disease in workers exposed to trichloroethylene. Methods-(i) In vitro experiments with human faeces: chloral or closely related alkyl halides were added to anaerobic faecal cultures derived from four methane-producing and three non-methanogenic human subjects. H-2 and CH4 gases were measured. (ii) In vivo animal experiment: chloral hydrate was added to drinking water of four Wistar rats, and faecal HI compared with control rats. Results-Alkyl halides increased H-2 up to 900 times in methanogenic and 10 times in non-methanogenic faecal cultures. The K-i of chloral was 0.2 mM. Methanogenesis was inhibited in concert with the increase in net H-2. In the rat experiment, chloral hydrate increased H-2 10 times, but did not cause pneumatosis. Conclusions-Chloral and trichloroethylene are alkyl halides chemically similar to chloroform, a potent inhibitor of H-2 consumption by methanogens and acetogens. These bacteria are the most important H-2-consuming species in the colon. It is postulated that exposure to these alkyl halides increases net H-2 production, which sets the scene for counterperfusion supersaturation and the formation of gas cysts. In recent times, very low prescribing rates for chloral have caused primary pneumatosis cystoides to become extremely rare. As with primary pneumatosis, secondary pneumatosis cystoides, which occurs if there is small bowel bacterial overgrowth distal to a proximally located gut obstruction, is predicted by counterperfusion supersaturation. Inherent unsaturation due to metabolism of O-2 is a safety factor, which could explain why gas bubbles do not form more often in tissue with high H-2 tension.

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Depending on the size and shape of the materials, methods employed to achieve effective fluidization during fluid bed drying varies from use of simple hole distributors for small, light weight materials to special techniques for lager and/or moist materials. This paper reviews common air distributors used in fluidized bed drying of food particulates. Also it reviews special methods of fluidizing larger irregular food particulates.

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Background: Epidemiological studies suggest that raised plasma concentrations of total homocysteine (tHcy) may be a common, causal and treatable risk factor for atherothromboembolic ischaemic stroke. Although tHcy can be lowered effectively with small doses of folic acid, vitamin B-12 and vitamin B-6, it is not known whether lowering tHcy, by means of multivitamin therapy, can prevent stroke and other major atherothromboembolic vascular events. Purpose: To determine whether vitamin supplements (folic acid 2 mg, B-6 25 Mg, B-12 500 mug) reduce the risk of stroke, and other serious vascular events, in patients with recent stroke or transient ischaemic attacks of the brain or eye (TIA). Methods: An international, multi-centre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial. Results: As of November 2001, more than 1,400 patients have been randomised from 10 countries in four continents. Conclusion: VITATOPS aims to recruit and follow up 8,000 patients between 2000 and 2004, and provide a reliable estimate of the safety and effectiveness of dietary supplementation with folic acid, vitamin B-12, and vitamin B-6 in reducing recurrent serious vascular events among a wide range of patients with TIA and stroke. Copyright (C) 2002 S. Karger AG, Basel.

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Background. A decline in muscle mass and muscle strength characterizes normal aging. As clinical and animal studies show it relationship between higher cytokine levels and low muscle mass, the aim of this study was to investigate whether markers, of inflammation are associated with muscle mass and strength in well-functioning elderly persons. Methods. We Used baseline data (1997-1998) of the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study on 3075 black and white men and women aged 70-79 years. Midthigh muscle cross-sectional area (computed tomography), appendicular muscle mass (dual-energy x-ray ab absorptiometry). isokinetic knee extensor strength (KinCom). and isometric inip strength were measured. plasma levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) were assessed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Results. Higher cytokine levels were generally associated with lower muscle mass and lower muscle strength. The most consistent relationship across the gender and race groups was observed for IL-6 and grip strength: per SD increase in IL-6, grip strength was 1.1 to 2.4 kg lower (p < .05) after adjustment for age, clinic Site. health status, medications, physical activity. smoking. height. and body fat. Ail overall measure of elevated cytokine level was created by combining the levels of IL-6 and TNF-alpha. With the exception of white men, elderly persons having high levels of IL-6 (> 1.80 pg/ml) as well as high levels of TNF-alpha (> 3.20 pg/ml) had a smaller muscle area, less appendicular mass. a lower knee extensor strength. and a lower grip strength compared to those with low levels of both cytokines. Conclusions. Higher plasma concentrations of IL-6 and TNF-alpha are associated with lower muscle mass and lower muscle strength in well-functioning older men and women. Higher cytokine levels. as often observed in healthy older persons. may contribute to the loss Of muscle mass and strength that accompanies aging.

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This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.