Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

The thalamocortical projection systems in primate: an anatomical support for multisensory and sensorimotor interplay.

Multisensory and sensorimotor integrations are usually considered to occur in superior colliculus and cerebral cortex, but few studies proposed the thalamus as being involved in these integrative processes. We investigated whether the organization of the thalamocortical (TC) systems for different modalities partly overlap, representing an anatomical support for multisensory and sensorimotor interplay in thalamus. In 2 macaque monkeys, 6 neuroanatomical tracers were injected in the rostral and caudal auditory cortex, posterior parietal cortex (PE/PEa in area 5), and dorsal and ventral premotor cortical areas (PMd, PMv), demonstrating the existence of overlapping territories of thalamic projections to areas of different modalities (sensory and motor). TC projections, distinct from the ones arising from specific unimodal sensory nuclei, were observed from motor thalamus to PE/PEa or auditory cortex and from sensory thalamus to PMd/PMv. The central lateral nucleus and the mediodorsal nucleus project to all injected areas, but the most significant overlap across modalities was found in the medial pulvinar nucleus. The present results demonstrate the presence of thalamic territories integrating different sensory modalities with motor attributes. Based on the divergent/convergent pattern of TC and corticothalamic projections, 4 distinct mechanisms of multisensory and sensorimotor interplay are proposed.

Building hippocampal circuits to learn and remember: insights into the development of human memory

The hippocampal formation is essential for the processing of episodic memories for autobiographical events that happen in unique spatiotemporal contexts. Interestingly, before 2 years of age, children are unable to form or store episodic memories for recall later in life, a phenomenon known as infantile amnesia. From 2 to 7 years of age, there are fewer memories than predicted based on a forgetting function alone, a phenomenon known as childhood amnesia. Here, we discuss the postnatal maturation of the primate hippocampal formation with the goal of characterizing the development of the neurobiological substrates thought to subserve the emergence of episodic memory. Distinct regions, layers and cells of the hippocampal formation exhibit different profiles of structural and molecular development during early postnatal life. The protracted period of neuronal addition and maturation in the dentate gyrus is accompanied by the late maturation of specific layers in different hippocampal regions that are located downstream from the dentate gyrus, particularly CA3. In contrast, distinct layers in several hippocampal regions, particularly CA1, which receive direct projections from the entorhinal cortex, exhibit an early maturation. In addition, hippocampal regions that are more highly interconnected with subcortical structures, including the subiculum, presubiculum, parasubiculum and CA2, mature even earlier. These findings, together with our studies of the development of human spatial memory, support the hypothesis that the differential maturation of distinct hippocampal circuits might underlie the differential emergence of specific "hippocampus-dependent" memory processes, culminating in the emergence of episodic memory concomitant with the maturation of all hippocampal circuits.

Response to comment on "Climatic niche shifts are rare among terrestrial plant invaders"

Webber et al. take a critical view of our findings that niche expansions are rare in plant invaders, arguing mainly that we did not include nonanalog climates in our analyses. Yet, their concerns include misunderstandings and go beyond the scope of our study, which was purposely restricted to analog climates. We further explain why our results remain robust to other factors of niche dynamics in the native range. We conclude that the implications of our findings remain valid for projections of niche models in analog climates and that projections in nonanalog climates should be undertaken with care.

Free-breathing 3D coronary MRA: the impact of "isotropic" image resolution.

During conventional x-ray coronary angiography, multiple projections of the coronary arteries are acquired to define coronary anatomy precisely. Due to time constraints, coronary magnetic resonance angiography (MRA) usually provides only one or two views of the major coronary vessels. A coronary MRA approach that allowed for reconstruction of arbitrary isotropic orientations might therefore be desirable. The purpose of the study was to develop a three-dimensional (3D) coronary MRA technique with isotropic image resolution in a relatively short scanning time that allows for reconstruction of arbitrary views of the coronary arteries without constraints given by anisotropic voxel size. Eight healthy adult subjects were examined using a real-time navigator-gated and corrected free-breathing interleaved echoplanar (TFE-EPI) 3D-MRA sequence. Two 3D datasets were acquired for the left and right coronary systems in each subject, one with anisotropic (1.0 x 1.5 x 3.0 mm, 10 slices) and one with "near" isotropic (1.0 x 1.5 x 1.0 mm, 30 slices) image resolution. All other imaging parameters were maintained. In all cases, the entire left main (LM) and extensive portions of the left anterior descending (LAD) and the right coronary artery (RCA) were visualized. Objective assessment of coronary vessel sharpness was similar (41% +/- 5% vs. 42% +/- 5%; P = NS) between in-plane and through-plane views with "isotropic" voxel size but differed (32% +/- 7% vs. 23% +/- 4%; P < 0.001) with nonisotropic voxel size. In reconstructed views oriented in the through-plane direction, the vessel border was 86% more defined (P < 0.01) for isotropic compared with anisotropic images. A smaller (30%; P < 0.001) improvement was seen for in-plane reconstructions. Vessel diameter measurements were view independent (2.81 +/- 0.45 mm vs. 2.66 +/- 0.52 mm; P = NS) for isotropic, but differed (2.71 +/- 0.51 mm vs. 3.30 +/- 0.38 mm; P < 0.001) between anisotropic views. Average scanning time was 2:31 +/- 0:57 minutes for anisotropic and 7:11 +/- 3:02 minutes for isotropic image resolution (P < 0.001). We present a new approach for "near" isotropic 3D coronary artery imaging, which allows for reconstruction of arbitrary views of the coronary arteries. The good delineation of the coronary arteries in all views suggests that isotropic 3D coronary MRA might be a preferred technique for the assessment of coronary disease, although at the expense of prolonged scan times. Comparative studies with conventional x-ray angiography are needed to investigate the clinical utility of the isotropic strategy.

Why microalgal biofuels won't save the internal combustion machine

Proponents of microalgae biofuel technologies often claim that the world demand of liquid fuels, about 5 trillion liters per year, could be supplied by microalgae cultivated on only a few tens of millions of hectares. This perspective reviews this subject and points out that such projections are greatly exaggerated, because (1) the pro- ductivities achieved in large-scale commercial microalgae production systems, operated year-round, do not surpass those of irrigated tropical crops; (2) cultivating, harvesting and processing microalgae solely for the production of biofuels is simply too expensive using current or prospective technology; and (3) currently available (limited) data suggest that the energy balance of algal biofuels is very poor. Thus, microalgal biofuels are no panacea for depleting oil or global warming, and are unlikely to save the internal combustion machine.

Hypocretin (orexin) biology and the pathophysiology of narcolepsy with cataplexy.

The discovery of hypocretins (orexins) and their causal implication in narcolepsy is the most important advance in sleep research and sleep medicine since the discovery of rapid eye movement sleep. Narcolepsy with cataplexy is caused by hypocretin deficiency owing to destruction of most of the hypocretin-producing neurons in the hypothalamus. Ablation of hypocretin or hypocretin receptors also leads to narcolepsy phenotypes in animal models. Although the exact mechanism of hypocretin deficiency is unknown, evidence from the past 20 years strongly favours an immune-mediated or autoimmune attack, targeting specifically hypocretin neurons in genetically predisposed individuals. These neurons form an extensive network of projections throughout the brain and show activity linked to motivational behaviours. The hypothesis that a targeted immune-mediated or autoimmune attack causes the specific degeneration of hypocretin neurons arose mainly through the discovery of genetic associations, first with the HLA-DQB1*06:02 allele and then with the T-cell receptor α locus. Guided by these genetic findings and now awaiting experimental testing are models of the possible immune mechanisms by which a specific and localised brain cell population could become targeted by T-cell subsets. Great hopes for the identification of new targets for therapeutic intervention in narcolepsy also reside in the development of patient-derived induced pluripotent stem cell systems.

Predicting current and future spatial community patterns of plant functional traits

Community-level patterns of functional traits relate to community assembly and ecosystem functioning. By modelling the changes of different indices describing such patterns - trait means, extremes and diversity in communities - as a function of abiotic gradients, we could understand their drivers and build projections of the impact of global change on the functional components of biodiversity. We used five plant functional traits (vegetative height, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nitrogen content and seed mass) and non-woody vegetation plots to model several indices depicting community-level patterns of functional traits from a set of abiotic environmental variables (topographic, climatic and edaphic) over contrasting environmental conditions in a mountainous landscape. We performed a variation partitioning analysis to assess the relative importance of these variables for predicting patterns of functional traits in communities, and projected the best models under several climate change scenarios to examine future potential changes in vegetation functional properties. Not all indices of trait patterns within communities could be modelled with the same level of accuracy: the models for mean and extreme values of functional traits provided substantially better predictive accuracy than the models calibrated for diversity indices. Topographic and climatic factors were more important predictors of functional trait patterns within communities than edaphic predictors. Overall, model projections forecast an increase in mean vegetation height and in mean specific leaf area following climate warming. This trend was important at mid elevation particularly between 1000 and 2000 m asl. With this study we showed that topographic, climatic and edaphic variables can successfully model descriptors of community-level patterns of plant functional traits such as mean and extreme trait values. However, which factors determine the diversity of functional traits in plant communities remains unclear and requires more investigations.

Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.

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Past and current climate change has already induced drastic biological changes. We need projections of how future climate change will further impact biological systems. Modeling is one approach to forecast future ecological impacts, but requires data for model parameterization. As collecting new data is costly, an alternative is to use the increasingly available georeferenced species occurrence and natural history databases. Here, we illustrate the use of such databases to assess climate change impacts on mountain flora. We show that these data can be used effectively to derive dynamic impact scenarios, suggesting upward migration of many species and possible extinctions when no suitable habitat is available at higher elevations. Systematically georeferencing all existing natural history collections data in mountain regions could allow a larger assessment of climate change impact on mountain ecosystems in Europe and elsewhere.

Issue review : fiscal year 2011 general fund budget projection.

This issue review provides an overall summary of Iowa's general fund budget. This issue review provides projections for the 2010 fiscal year and fiscal year 2011 budgets based on the October 7, 2009 revenue estimating conference's (REC) revenue estimate. The projection also includes the impact of the Governor's 10 percent across-the-board reduction to fiscal year 2010 general fund appropriations, and the Legislative Services Agency's most recent estimates of built-in and anticipated expenditures for fiscal year 2011.

2006 Cancer in Iowa Report, 2006

In 2006, an estimated 6,300 Iowans will die from cancer, 14 times the number caused by auto fatalities. Cancer is second only to heart disease as a cause of death. These projections are based upon mortality data the State Health Registry of Iowa receives from the Iowa Department of Public Health. The Registry has been recording the occurrence of cancer in Iowa since 1973, and is one of fourteen population-based registries and three supplementary registries nationwide providing data to the National Cancer Institute. In 2006 an estimated 16,000 cancers will be newly diagnosed among Iowa residents. With 2006 Cancer in Iowa the Registry makes a general report to the public on the status of cancer.

2012 Cancer in Iowa Report: A Focus on Lung Cancer, 2012

Cancer is a reportable disease as stated in the Iowa Administrative Code. Cancer data are collected by the State Health Registry of Iowa, located at The University of Iowa in the College of Public Health’s Department of epidemiology. The staff includes more than 50 people. Half of them, situated throughout the state, regularly visit hospitals, clinics, and medical laboratories in Iowa and neighboring states to collect cancer data. A follow-up program tracks more than 99 percent of the cancer survivors diagnosed since 1973. This program provides regular updates for follow-up and survival. The Registry maintains the confidentiality of the patients, physicians, and hospitals providing data. In 2012 data will be collected on a projected 17,500 new cancers among Iowa residents. In situ cases of bladder cancer are included in the projections for bladder cancer, to be in agreement with the definition of reportable cases of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program of the NCI. Since 1973 the Iowa Registry has been funded by the SEER Program of the NCI. Iowa represents rural and Midwestern populations and provides data included in many NCI publications. Beginning in 1990 about 5-10 percent of the Registry’s annual operating budget has been provided by the state of Iowa. Beginning in 2003, the University of Iowa has also been providing cost-sharing funds. The Registry also receives funding through grants and contracts with university, state, and national researchers investigating cancer-related topics.

Iowa’s Bridge and Highway Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Pilot, HEPN-707, 2015

The Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) is responsible for approximately 4,100 bridges and structures that are a part of the state’s primary highway system, which includes the Interstate, US, and Iowa highway routes. A pilot study was conducted for six bridges in two Iowa river basins—the Cedar River Basin and the South Skunk River Basin—to develop a methodology to evaluate their vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather. The six bridges had been either closed or severely stressed by record streamflow within the past seven years. An innovative methodology was developed to generate streamflow scenarios given climate change projections. The methodology selected appropriate rainfall projection data to feed into a streamflow model that generated continuous peak annual streamflow series for 1960 through 2100, which were used as input to PeakFQ to estimate return intervals for floods. The methodology evaluated the plausibility of rainfall projections and credibility of streamflow simulation while remaining consistent with U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) protocol for estimating the return interval for floods. The results were conveyed in an innovative graph that combined historical and scenario-based design metrics for use in bridge vulnerability analysis and engineering design. The pilot results determined the annual peak streamflow response to climate change likely will be basin-size dependent, four of the six pilot study bridges would be exposed to increased frequency of extreme streamflow and would have higher frequency of overtopping, the proposed design for replacing the Interstate 35 bridges over the South Skunk River south of Ames, Iowa is resilient to climate change, and some Iowa DOT bridge design policies could be reviewed to consider incorporating climate change information.

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolution and geographic extent. Here, we assess whether climate-change induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10x10' grid cells) are also predicted from local scale data and modeling (25x25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10x10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.