Risk management in build-operate-transfer projects

Construction projects are risky. A build-operate-transfer (BOT) project is recognised as one of the most risky project schemes. This scheme has been employed rather frequently in the past few decades, in both developed and developing countries. However, because of its risky nature, there have been failures as well as successes. Risk analysis in an appropriate way is desirable in implementing BOT projects. There are various tools and techniques applicable to risk analysis. The application of these risk analysis tools and techniques (RATTs) to BOT projects depends on an understanding of the contents and contexts of BOT projects, together with a thorough understanding of RATTs. This paper studies key points in their applications through reviews of relevant literatures and discusses the application of RATTs to BOT projects. The application to BOT projects is considered from the viewpoints of the major project participants, i.e. government, lenders and project companies. Discussion is also made with regard to political risks, which are very important in BOT projects. A flow chart has been introduced to select an appropriate tool for risk management in BOT projects. This study contributes to the establishment of a framework for systematic risk management in BOT projects.

Decision support system for risk management:a case study

This study demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through analytic hierarchy process and decision tree analysis. All the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability and severity, and various alternative responses are generated with cost implication for mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are then derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis aids the decision process in managing risks. The entire methodology is explained through a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India and its effectiveness in project management is demonstrated.

Managing risk in software development projects:a case study

Purpose - The main objective of the paper is to develop a risk management framework for software development projects from developers' perspective. Design/methodology/approach - This study uses a combined qualitative and quantitative technique with the active involvement of stakeholders in order to identify, analyze and respond to risks. The entire methodology has been explained using a case study on software development project in a public sector organization in Barbados. Findings - Analytical approach to managing risk in software development ensures effective delivery of projects to clients. Research limitations/implications - The proposed risk management framework has been applied to a single case. Practical implications - Software development projects are characterized by technical complexity, market and financial uncertainties and competent manpower availability. Therefore, successful project accomplishment depends on addressing those issues throughout the project phases. Effective risk management ensures the success of projects. Originality/value - There are several studies on managing risks in software development and information technology (IT) projects. Most of the studies identify and prioritize risks through empirical research in order to suggest mitigating measures. Although they are important to clients for future projects, these studies fail to provide any framework for risk management from software developers' perspective. Although a few studies introduced framework of risk management in software development, most of them are presented from clients' perspectives and very little effort has been made to integrate this with the software development cycle. As software developers absorb considerable amount of risks, an integrated framework for managing risks in software development from developers' perspective is needed. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

A model of service performance enhancement:the role of transactional and transformational leadership

This paper is concerned with the ways in which transactional and transformational leadership styles can improve the service performance of front-line staff. Past literature on services marketing has indicated the importance of leadership but has largely ignored the parallel literature in which leadership styles have been conceptualized and operationalized (e.g., sales management, organizational psychology). This paper seeks to build upon existing services marketing theory by introducing the role of leadership styles in enhancing service performance. Consequently, a conceptual framework of the effect of transactional and transformational leadership styles on service performance, anchored in a crossdisciplinary literature review, is developed. Managerial implications and future research directions are also discussed.

Diagnosis of type 2 diabetes:A qualitative analysis of patients' emotional reactions and views about information provision

Research about diagnosis of chronic illness indicates this is an emotional time for patients. Information provision is especially salient for diabetes management. Yet current orthodoxy suggests that too much information at the time of diagnosis is unhelpful for patients. In this study, we used in-depth interviews with 40 newly diagnosed type 2 diabetic (T2DM) patients in Scotland, to explore their emotional reactions about diagnosis, and their views about information provision at the time of diagnosis. Data were analysed using a thematic approach. Our results showed three main 'routes' to diagnosis: 'suspected diabetes' route; 'illness' route; and 'routine' route. Those within the 'routine' route described the most varied emotional reactions to their diagnosis. We found that most patients, irrespective of their route to diagnosis, wanted more information about diabetes management at the time of diagnosis. We suggest that practitioners would benefit from being sensitive to the route patients follow to diagnosis, and prompt, simple but detailed advice about T2DM management would be helpful for newly diagnosed patients. © 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Blood glucose self-monitoring in non-insulin-treated type 2 diabetes:a qualitative study of patients' perspectives

Background: Self-monitoring of blood glucose is controversial in the management of type 2 diabetes. Some research suggests that self-monitoring improves glycaemic control, whereas other research is sceptical about its value for people with type 2 diabetes who are not on insulin. Although blood glucose meters are widely available and used by this group, patients' own views are absent from the debate. Aim: To explore the pros and cons of glucose monitoring from the patients' perspectives. Design of study: Qualitative repeat-interview study. Setting: Patients were recruited from 16 general practices and three hospital clinics within four local healthcare cooperatives in Lothian, Scotland. Method: Interview data from 40 patients diagnosed with type 2 diabetes within the previous 6 months were analysed using thematic analysis informed by grounded theory. We report findings from round 1 and round 2 interviews. Results: Glucose monitoring can heighten patients' awareness of the impact of lifestyle; for example, dietary choices, on blood glucose levels. Glucose monitoring amplifies a sense of 'success' or 'failure' about self-management, often resulting in anxiety and self-blame if glucose readings remain consistently high. Moreover, monitoring can negatively effect patients' self-management when readings are counter-intuitive. Conclusion: Our analysis highlights the importance of understanding the meanings that newly diagnosed patients attach to glucose self-monitoring. To maximise the positive effects of self-monitoring, health professionals should ensure that patients understand the purpose of monitoring and should clarify with patients how readings should be interpreted. © British Journal of General Practice.

A two-factor model of the U.K. yield curve

I model the forward premium in the U.K. gilt-edged market over the period 1982–96 using a two-factor general equilibrium model of the term structure of interest rates. The model permits the decomposition of the forward premium into separate components representing interest rate expectations, the risk premia associated with each of the underlying factors, and terms capturing the direct impact of the variances of the factors on the shape of the forward curve.

Establishing a framework for dynamic risk management in 'intelligent' aero-engine control

The behaviour of control functions in safety critical software systems is typically bounded to prevent the occurrence of known system level hazards. These bounds are typically derived through safety analyses and can be implemented through the use of necessary design features. However, the unpredictability of real world problems can result in changes in the operating context that may invalidate the behavioural bounds themselves, for example, unexpected hazardous operating contexts as a result of failures or degradation. For highly complex problems it may be infeasible to determine the precise desired behavioural bounds of a function that addresses or minimises risk for hazardous operation cases prior to deployment. This paper presents an overview of the safety challenges associated with such a problem and how such problems might be addressed. A self-management framework is proposed that performs on-line risk management. The features of the framework are shown in context of employing intelligent adaptive controllers operating within complex and highly dynamic problem domains such as Gas-Turbine Aero Engine control. Safety assurance arguments enabled by the framework necessary for certification are also outlined.

An examination of the management of Russian civil society

This thesis begins by examining the concepts of civil society and social capital. Specifically, it outlines the role of health and education third sector organisations (TSOs) in building civil society and generating social capital which is conducive to democratisation. Following this, the thesis presents literature on civil society development in the context of the Russian Federation, highlighting a void in our understanding of health and education TSOs in this context. The literature review examines cultural-historic antecedents and their impact on civil society development. These antecedents result in three constraints which limit TSOs ability to establish civil society as an autonomous space. In light of these constraints, the thesis explores the present day realities faced by Russian TSOs and proposes that the all-dominant nature of the Russian state leads to managed civil society arrangements. Consequently the thesis addresses the question of how a managed civil society manifests itself in the context of the Russian Federation. Using a qualitative research design, the thesis investigates the control mechanisms created by legislative framework, the ability of third sector organisations to substitute for the state, and the organisational characteristics of TSOs within a managed civil society space. Based on interview data from 82 TSOs across three geographical regions, the empirical chapters explore these three aspects in-depth. Firstly, the thesis demonstrates how a specific legislative framework is used as a legally mandated method to manage civil society. Secondly, the thesis explores more subtle attempts by the state to manage civil society. And thirdly, the thesis highlights ways in which the state controls TSOs and coerces them to mimic marionette organisations. Overall, the evidence presented throughout the thesis highlights the idiosyncratic nature of managed civil society arrangements in Russia in which the state is able to control and direct civil society

A comparative study of hospital management in Great Britain and Brazil : cost information use

In Great Britain and Brazil healthcare is free at the point of delivery and based study only on citizenship. However, the British NHS is fifty-five years old and has undergone extensive reforms. The Brazilian SUS is barely fifteen years old. This research investigated the middle management mediation role within hospitals comparing managerial planning and control using cost information in Great Britain and Brazil. This investigation was conducted in two stages entailing quantitative and qualitative techniques. The first stage was a survey involving managers of 26 NHS Trusts in Great Britain and 22 public hospitals in Brazil. The second stage consisted of interviews, 10 in Great Britain and 22 in Brazil, conducted in four selected hospitals, two in each country. This research builds on the literature by investigating the interaction of contingency theory and modes of governance in a cross-national study in terms of public hospitals. It further builds on the existing literature by measuring managerial dimensions related to cost information usefulness. The project unveils the practice involved in planning and control processes. It highlights important elements such as the use of predictive models and uncertainty reduction when planning. It uncovers the different mechanisms employed on control processes. It also depicts that planning and control within British hospitals are structured procedures and guided by overall goals. In contrast, planning and control processes in Brazilian hospitals are accidental, involving more ad hoc actions and a profusion of goals. The clinicians in British hospitals have been integrated into the management hierarchy. Their use of cost information in planning and control processes reflects this integration. However, in Brazil, clinicians have been shown to operate more independently and make little use of cost information but the potential signalled for cost information use is seen to be even greater than that of their British counterparts.

The derivation and application of risk tolerability criteria

This research involves a study of the questions, "what is considered safe", how are safety levels defined or decided, and according to whom. Tolerable or acceptable risk questions raise various issues: about values and assumptions inherent in such levels; about decision-making frameworks at the highest level of policy making as well as on the individual level; and about the suitability and competency of decision-makers to decide and to communicate their decisions. The wide-ranging topics covering philosophical and practical concerns examined in the literature review reveal the multi-disciplined scope of this research. To support this theoretical study empirical research was undertaken at the European Space Research and Technology Centre (ESTEC) of the European Space Agency (ESA). ESTEC is a large, multi-nationality, high technology organisation which presented an ideal case study for exploring how decisions are made with respect to safety from a personal as well as organisational aspect. A qualitative methodology was employed to gather, analyse and report the findings of this research. Significant findings reveal how experts perceive risks and the prevalence of informal decision-making processes partly due to the inadequacy of formal methods for deciding risk tolerability. In the field of occupational health and safety, this research has highlighted the importance and need for criteria to decide whether a risk is great enough to warrant attention in setting standards and priorities for risk control and resources. From a wider perspective and with the recognition that risk is an inherent part of life, the establishment of tolerability risk levels can be viewed as cornerstones indicating our progress, expectations and values, of life and work, in an increasingly litigious, knowledgeable and global society.

Concepts and methods of quantitative assessment of risk to groundwater resources

This work presents a two-dimensional approach of risk assessment method based on the quantification of the probability of the occurrence of contaminant source terms, as well as the assessment of the resultant impacts. The risk is calculated using Monte Carlo simulation methods whereby synthetic contaminant source terms were generated to the same distribution as historically occurring pollution events or a priori potential probability distribution. The spatial and temporal distributions of the generated contaminant concentrations at pre-defined monitoring points within the aquifer were then simulated from repeated realisations using integrated mathematical models. The number of times when user defined ranges of concentration magnitudes were exceeded is quantified as risk. The utilities of the method were demonstrated using hypothetical scenarios, and the risk of pollution from a number of sources all occurring by chance together was evaluated. The results are presented in the form of charts and spatial maps. The generated risk maps show the risk of pollution at each observation borehole, as well as the trends within the study area. This capability to generate synthetic pollution events from numerous potential sources of pollution based on historical frequency of their occurrence proved to be a great asset to the method, and a large benefit over the contemporary methods.

From practice to field:a multi-level model of practice-driven institutional change

This article develops a model of practice-driven institutional change - or change that originates in the everyday work of individuals but results in a shift in field-level logic. In demonstrating how improvisations at work can generate institutional change, we attend to the earliest moments of change, which extant research has neglected; and we contrast existing accounts that focus on active entrepreneurship and the contested nature of change. We outline the specific mechanisms by which change emerges from everyday work, becomes justified, and diffuses within an organization and field, as well as precipitating and enabling dynamics that trigger and condition these mechanisms. © Academy of Management Journal.

Development of a probabilistic graphical structure from a model of mental health clinical expertise

This thesis explores the process of developing a principled approach for translating a model of mental-health risk expertise into a probabilistic graphical structure. Probabilistic graphical structures can be a combination of graph and probability theory that provide numerous advantages when it comes to the representation of domains involving uncertainty, domains such as the mental health domain. In this thesis the advantages that probabilistic graphical structures offer in representing such domains is built on. The Galatean Risk Screening Tool (GRiST) is a psychological model for mental health risk assessment based on fuzzy sets. In this thesis the knowledge encapsulated in the psychological model was used to develop the structure of the probability graph by exploiting the semantics of the clinical expertise. This thesis describes how a chain graph can be developed from the psychological model to provide a probabilistic evaluation of risk that complements the one generated by GRiST’s clinical expertise by the decomposing of the GRiST knowledge structure in component parts, which were in turned mapped into equivalent probabilistic graphical structures such as Bayesian Belief Nets and Markov Random Fields to produce a composite chain graph that provides a probabilistic classification of risk expertise to complement the expert clinical judgements