Market reform and fiscal laxity in Communist and post-Communist Hungary: A path-dependent approach

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a conceptual framework in order to analyse and understand the twin developments of successful microeconomic reform on the one hand and failed macroeconomic stabilisation attempts on the other hand in Hungary. The case study also attempts to explore the reasons why Hungarian policymakers were willing to initiate reforms in the micro sphere, but were reluctant to initiate major changes in public finances both before and after the regime change of 1989/1990. Design/methodology/approach – The paper applies a path-dependent approach by carefully analysing Hungary's Communist and post-Communist economic development. The study restricts itself to a positive analysis but normative statements can also be drawn accordingly. Findings – The study demonstrates that the recent deteriorating economic performance of Hungary is not a recent phenomenon. By providing a path-dependent explanation, it argues that both Communist and post-Communist governments used the general budget as a buffer to compensate the losers of economic reforms, especially microeconomic restructuring. The gradualist success of the country – which dates back to at least 1968 – in the field of liberalisation, marketisation and privatisation was accompanied by a constant overspending in the general government. Practical implications – Hungary has been one of the worst-hit countries of the 2008/2009 financial crisis, not just in Central and Eastern Europe but in the whole world. The capacity and opportunity for strengthening international investors' confidence is, however, not without doubts. The current deterioration is deeply rooted in failed past macroeconomic management. The dissolution of fiscal laxity and state paternalism in a broader context requires, therefore, an all-encompassing reform of the general government, which may trigger serious challenges to the political regime as well. Originality/value – The study aims to show that a relatively high ratio of redistribution, a high and persistent public deficit and an accelerated indebtedness are not recent phenomena in Hungary. In fact, these trends characterised the country well before the transformation of 1989/1990, and have continued in the post-socialist years, too. To explain such a phenomenon, the study argues that in the last couple of decades the hardening of the budget constraint of firms have come at the cost of maintaining the soft budget constraint of the state.

Megtakarítások és külső finanszírozás az amerikai gazdaságban. A hitelpiaci válság háttere (1997-2007) (Savings and external financing in the American economy. The background to the credit-market crisis (1997–2007))

A tanulmány nem az aktuális hitelpiaci válság enyhítésének kérdésével foglalkozik, hanem az amerikai gazdaság elmúlt négy évtizedének általános és az utolsó tíz évének konkrét beruházási-megtakarítási és növekedési tendenciáit igyekszik feltárni. Azt vizsgálja, hogy milyen mélyebb, belföldi eredetű szerkezeti okai vannak a nemzetközivé dagadt jelzáloghitel-válságnak. A cikk a nyitott gazdaság külső finanszírozással összefüggő mérlegazonosságainak alapján arra a következtetésre jut, hogy az ingatlanpiaci visszaesés és a kibocsátás zsugorodása az Egyesült Államok gazdaságában már több mint másfél évtizede kialakult kedvezőtlen, de még tovább romló belföldi megtakarítási folyamatok következménye. A jelzálogpiac krízise és a lakásépítés drámai visszaesése a túlfogyasztásra és túlhitelezésre ösztönző pénzügyi környezet eredménye. A lakáspiaci és a hitelezési ciklusok pénzügyi innovációkkal történő megnyújtása inkább növelte, mint csökkentette a kibocsátásingadozás érzékenységét. A legfőbb hitelezők Kína, Japán, Németország inkább dolláralapú amerikai vállalati felvásárlásokkal ellensúlyozták a dollárgyengülésből elszenvedett veszteségeiket. 1997-2007 között az Amerikából külföldön befektetett dolláraktívák - javarészt a valuta leértékelődése nyomán - jelentős hozamemelkedést élveztek, és számottevően tompították a belföldön képződött jövedelmek csökkenését. A dollárleértékelődés az eszköz- (és nemcsak az áruexport) oldalon is előnyöket hozott számos nagyvállalatnak. / === / Rather than dealing with the immediate policy steps to dampen the crisis, this paper attempts to reveal the worsening savings/consumption pattern of the US economy over the last ten years. Based on the closed logic of open-economy GDP-accounting, it argues that the current crisis is deeply rooted in shrinking public and private savings trends discernible as early as 1997. The current mortgage-market crisis and deep fall in new residential housing are products of a distorted financial environment that encourages over-borrowing and over-consumption. Expansion of the credit cycle through successive financial innovations has increased, not decreased output volatility. But the main foreign lenders to the US—Japan, China and Germany—have managed to offset their losses on US securities by buying into US companies. Large US firms have also benefited from rapid dollar depreciation as USD-denominated yields on their foreign assets experienced strong run-ups. The weak dollar has also helped American firms with large assets on foreign markets. So there were strong benefits for the US, not just on the goods-export side, but on the asset side, an aspect rarely emphasized.

Közjavak optimális előállítása (Optimal production of public goods)

A közjavak közgazdaságilag optimális szintjének előállítása piaci körülmények között általában nehézségekbe ütközik. Napjainkban számos országban többféle közjószág áll rendelkezésre, a szakirodalomban pedig például a nyugdíjrendszer egyes elemeinek közjószágjellegével kapcsolatos felvetések is megjelentek már. Ezzel összefüggésben is érdekes a kérdés, milyen körülmények között fordulhat elő, hogy racionális egyéni döntéshozók egyénileg optimális döntéseikkel valamely közjószág optimális szintjét hozzák létre. Jelen tanulmány ezzel a kérdéssel foglalkozik. / === / It is difficult to produce the economically optimal level of public goods in a market environment. There are many different types of public goods, and today even some aspects of the pension system are considered as such. Still, it is an interesting question if individually optimal decisions made by rational individuals could lead to an optimal level of public goods. The paper attempts to analyze this question.

Felsőoktatási intézmények közbeszerzési sajátosságai = Public Procurement Characteristics of Higher Education Institutions

A kutatók a 2000-es évek eleje óta foglalkoznak a közbeszerzés és a versenyképesség kapcsolatával. A két terület közötti összefüggés egyértelmű, melyet vizsgálatainak is megerősítenek. Az Európai Unió tagállamainak jogalkotón folyamatos a nyomás, hogy a közbeszerzést különböző célokra használják fel. Mindez segít a közbeszerzés értelmezési körének kitágításában, de felhívja a figyelmet arra, hogy a jogalkotóknak elsősorban néhány kiemelt témára kell összpontosítaniuk, mint az innováció vagy a fenntarthatóság. A felsőoktatási intézmények közbeszerzésben betöltött szerepén túl fontosságuk a konzorciális beszerzések, a közbeszerzés képzés, továbbá az innovatív termékek, technológiák beszerzési gyakorlatában betöltött szerepük miatt kiemelkedő. Hazánkban ez az első alkalom, hogy feltárjuk kifejezetten nagy közbeszerző felsőoktatási intézményeik piaci szerepét és elemezzük közbeszerzési gyakorlatuk sajátosságait, viszonyítjuk eddigi kutatási eredményeinkhez. ______ Researchers have focused on the relation between public procurement and competitiveness since the early 2000s. The relation between corporate competitiveness and public procurement is beyond doubt, evidenced by our research findings. There is growing pressure on the legislators of EU Member States to use public procurement for certain purposes. This helps to widen the scope of procurement, but the regulators have to focus on several priorities like innovation and sustainability. The importance of universities in the development of consortial purchasing, purchasing education, procurement of innovative goods and technologies is unquestionable. It is the first opportunity in Hungary to analyze the role of large contracting authorities, participants of the higher educational market in public procurement and to explore the characteristics of their public procurement practice in order to make comparison between universities and other public procurement market players.

A közbeszerzés jogi és hatékonysági aspektusai (The legal and efficiency aspects of public procurement)

A közpénzelköltés hatékonyságát hazai viszonylatban az éves közpénzköltés nagyságával és az alkalmazott eljárástípusok, beszerzési tárgyak számával, értékével kapcsolatosan van lehetősége a hivatalos statisztikák elemzése során az érdeklődőnek vizsgálni. A törvény preambulumában található „a közpénzek ésszerű felhasználása átláthatóságának és széles körű nyilvános ellenőrizhetőségének megteremtése, továbbá a közbeszerzések során a verseny tisztaságának biztosítása” célrendszer csak részben érvényesül. A tanulmány arra kíván rávilágítani, hogy a hazai közbeszerzés-kutatás eredményei alapján milyen elképzelés van a GDP közel 5%-án hatékony elköltéséről Magyarországon. Vajon valódi akadálya-e a közbeszerzés a tisztességtelen versenynek, s elősegíti-e a piaci folyamatok érvényesülését annak szabályozása. A szerző válaszai rávilágítanak a közbeszerzési piaci folyamatok, gyengeségek, kevésbé hatékony megnyilvánulások és kritikus vélemények okaira, melyek közvetlen kapcsolatban vannak a közbeszerzés válságos helyzetével, s azonosítják azokat a kritikus pontokat, melyeken érdemes változtatni egy reménybeli hatékonyabb állapot, piaci egyensúlyi helyzet kialakítása érdekében. _______ The analysis of public spending can be based on official statistics showing the figures of annual public spending and the value and number of different procedures and purchased items. However, public procurement spending an annual amount of 1600-1800 billion HUF of public money in an ever changing legal environment, are intended to ensure not only some efficiency in public spending, but to reach several other aims as well. Although the preamble of the public procurement law states, that “a legal environment ought to be created, where the transparency and public accountability of spending public money and fair competition regarding public procurement procedures is ensured”, these requirements are only partially met. This study, based on the results of recent analyses concerning public procurement, wishes to represent our ideas about how to spend efficiently nearly 5% of the Hungarian GDP. Is it really true, that public procurement can be regarded as a genuine means against unfair competition, and can we really foster market processes by regulating public procurement? The author answers highlight the causes of the weaknesses of public procurement procedures, inefficient practices and critical opinions, which are closely connected to the present dire state of public procurement. This study also identifies the crucial elements to be changed in order to achieve a hopefully more efficient state and a preferable market balance.

Az egyéni teljesítményértékelési rendszer működésének tapasztalatai a magyar közigazgatásban (Operating experiences of the individual performance appraisal system in the Hungarian public sector)

A tanulmány – egy 2005 végén lefolytatott, országosan reprezentatív kérdőíves felmérés empirikus bázisán – a magyar közigazgatási dolgozók körében 2002-től bevezetett egyéni teljesítményértékelési rendszert vizsgálja. A rendszer egészét tekintve a vizsgálat végkövetkeztetései nem túl rózsásak: az eredmények arra utalnak, hogy a rendszer mint egész nem képes kitűzött fő célját, a munkateljesítmények javítását elérni. Az egyes részrendszerek, szervezettípusok szintjén differenciáltabb eredményeket kapunk, míg a minisztériumokban a rendszer egésze a szándékolttól alapvetően különböző célokat látszik szolgálni, addig a többi szervezettípusnál inkább „csak” a rendszer tökéletlen működéséről beszélhetünk. ____ On the basis of a questionnaire survey of a nationally representative sample of Hungarian civil servants, the study attempts to give a preliminary evaluation of the individual performance assessment system introduced in 2002 throughout the Hungarian civil service. The general conclusion of the analysis is that the performance assessment system is unlikely to reach its goals: its central element, the performance related pay incentives are overly dispersed and, on the average, insignificant in size, meanwhile the objectivity of performance assessments is also questionable. Moreover, comparative analysis of responses from different administrative branches reveals an interesting idiosyncrasy characteristic for central government ministries. Here, the main function of the incentive system seems to be ensuring the labor market competitiveness of the ministries as employers by enabling them to pay higher-than-usual salaries for employees having certain types of expertise.

Public price of climate change

Aim of the paper: The purpose is to gather the practices and to model the impacts of climate change on fiscal spending and revenues, responsibilities and opportunities, balance and debt related to climate change (CC). Methodology of the paper: The methodology will distinguish fiscal cost of mitigation and adaptation, besides direct and indirect costs. It will also introduce cost benefit analyses to evaluate the propensity of policy makers for action or passivity. Several scenarios will be drafted to see the different outcomes. The scenarios shall contain the possible losses in the natural and artificial environment and resources. Impacts on public budget are based on damage of income opportunities and capital/wealth/natural assets. There will be a list of actions when the fiscal correction of market failures will be necessary. Findings: There will be a summary and synthesis of estimation models on CC impacts on public finances, and morals of existing/existed budgeting practices on mitigation. The model will be based on damages (and maybe benefits) from CC, adjusted with probabilities of sce-narios and policy making propensity for action. Findings will cover the way of funding of fiscal costs. Practical use, value added: From the synthesis of model, the fiscal cost of mitigation and adaptation can be estimated for any developed, emerging and developing countries. The paper will try to reply, also, for the challenge how to harmonize fiscal and developmental sustainability.

Schizophrenic public administration reform in Hungary. Tension between anti-NPM systemic and pro-NPM organizational reforms

The aim of the paper is to highlight the main characteristics of the recent Hungarian public administration reform, as well as to reveal the inconsistent nature of some of its elements and to describe the connected risks. The starting point of the article is the Magyary Zoltán public administration development programme. The reform steps are compared to the ideal type NPM approach. The Hungarian public administration reform can be characterized by strong centralization and the revitalization of Hungarian anti-liberal traditions at macro level, and by the support of the enhancement of market rules and management at micro level.

Formalization of the informal venture capital market - Business angel networks and syndicates

Business angels are natural persons who provide equity financing for young enterprises and gain ownership in them. They are usually anonym investors and they operate in the background of the companies. Their important feature is that over the funding of the enterprises based on their business experiences they can contribute to the success of the companies with their special expertise and with strategic support. As a result of the asymmetric information between the angels and the companies their matching is difficult (Becsky-Nagy – Fazekas 2015), and the fact, that angel investors prefer anonymity makes it harder for entrepreneurs to obtain informal venture capital. The primary aim of the different type of business angel organizations and networks is to alleviate this matching process with intermediation between the two parties. The role of these organizations is increasing in the informal venture capital market compared to the individually operating angels. The recognition of their economic importance led many governments to support them. There were also public initiations that aimed the establishment of these intermediary organizations that led to the institutionalization of business angels. This study via the characterization of business angels focuses on the progress of these informational intermediaries and their ways of development with regards to the international trends and the current situation of Hungarian business angels and angel networks.

Private higher education policy in Ohio, 1980--2006: A case study demonstrating the usefulness of Zumeta's public policy posture model

This study describes the case of private higher education in Ohio between 1980 and 2006 using Zumeta's (1996) model of state policy and private higher education. More specifically, this study used case study methodology and multiple sources to demonstrate the usefulness of Zumeta's model and illustrate its limitations. Ohio served as the subject state and data for 67 private, 4-year, degree-granting, Higher Learning Commission-accredited institutions were collected. Data sources for this study included the National Center for Education Statistics Integrated Postsecondary Data System as well as database information and documents from various state agencies in Ohio, including the Ohio Board of Regents. ^ The findings of this study indicated that the general state context for higher education in Ohio during the study time period was shaped by deteriorating economic factors, stagnating population growth coupled with a rapidly aging society, fluctuating state income and increasing expenditures in areas such as corrections, transportation and social services. However, private higher education experienced consistent enrollment growth, an increase in the number of institutions, widening involvement in state-wide planning for higher education, and greater fiscal support from the state in a variety of forms such as the Ohio Choice Grant. This study also demonstrated that private higher education in Ohio benefited because of its inclusion in state-wide planning and the state's decision to grant state aid directly to students. ^ Taken together, this study supported Zumeta's (1996) classification of Ohio as having a hybrid market-competitive/central-planning policy posture toward private higher education. Furthermore, this study demonstrated that Zumeta's model is a useful tool for both policy makers and researchers for understanding a state's relationship to its private higher education sector. However, this study also demonstrated that Zumeta's model is less useful when applied over an extended time period. Additionally, this study identifies a further limitation of Zumeta's model resulting from his failure to define "state mandate" and the "level of state mandates" that allows for inconsistent analysis of this component. ^

Small farmer market knowledge and specialty coffee commodity chains in Western Highlands Guatemala

For producers motivated by their new status as self-employed, landowning, capitalist coffee growers, specialty coffee presents an opportunity to proactively change the way they participate in the international market. Now responsible for determining their own path, many producers have jumped at the chance to enhance the value of their product and participate in the new "fair trade" market. But recent trends in the international coffee price have led many producers to wonder why their efforts to produce a certified Fair Trade and organic product are not generating the price advantage they had anticipated. My study incorporates data collected in eighteen months of fieldwork, including more than 45 interviews with coffee producers and fair trade roasters, 90 surveys of coffee growers, and ongoing participant observation to understand how fair trade certification, as both a market system and development program, meets the expectations of the coffee growers. By comparing three coffee cooperatives that have engaged the Fair Trade system to disparate ends, the results of this investigation are three case studies that demonstrate how global processes of certification, commodity trade, market interaction, and development aid effect social and cultural change within communities. This study frames several lessons learned in terms of (1) socioeconomic impacts of fair trade, (2) characteristics associated with positive development encounters, and (3) potential for commodity producers to capture value further along their global value chain. Commodity chain comparisons indicate the Fair Trade certified cooperative receives the highest per-pound price, though these findings are complicated by costs associate with certification and producers' perceptions of an "unjust" system. Fair trade-supported projects are demonstrated as more "successful" in the eyes of recipients, though their attention to detail can just as easily result in "failure". Finally, survey results reveal just how limited is the market knowledge of producers in each cooperative, though fair trade does, in fact, provide a rare opportunity for producers to learn about consumer demand for coffee quality. Though bittersweet, the fair trade experiences described here present a learning opportunity for a wide range of audiences, from the certified to the certifiers to the concerned public and conscientious consumer.

A comprehensive study of bankruptcy prediction: Accounting ratios, market variables, and microstructure

Bankruptcy prediction has been a fruitful area of research. Univariate analysis and discriminant analysis were the first methodologies used. While they perform relatively well at correctly classifying bankrupt and nonbankrupt firms, their predictive ability has come into question over time. Univariate analysis lacks the big picture that financial distress entails. Multivariate discriminant analysis requires stringent assumptions that are violated when dealing with accounting ratios and market variables. This has led to the use of more complex models such as neural networks. While the accuracy of the predictions has improved with the use of more technical models, there is still an important point missing. Accounting ratios are the usual discriminating variables used in bankruptcy prediction. However, accounting ratios are backward-looking variables. At best, they are a current snapshot of the firm. Market variables are forward-looking variables. They are determined by discounting future outcomes. Microstructure variables, such as the bid-ask spread, also contain important information. Insiders are privy to more information that the retail investor, so if any financial distress is looming, the insiders should know before the general public. Therefore, any model in bankruptcy prediction should include market and microstructure variables. That is the focus of this dissertation. The traditional models and the newer, more technical models were tested and compared to the previous literature by employing accounting ratios, market variables, and microstructure variables. Our findings suggest that the more technical models are preferable, and that a mix of accounting and market variables are best at correctly classifying and predicting bankrupt firms. Multi-layer perceptron appears to be the most accurate model following the results. The set of best discriminating variables includes price, standard deviation of price, the bid-ask spread, net income to sale, working capital to total assets, and current liabilities to total assets.

Public Service Motivation in Public and Nonprofit Service Providers: The Cases of Belarus and Poland

The work motivation construct is central to the theory and practice of many social science disciplines. Yet, due to the novelty of validated measures appropriate for a deep cross-national comparison, studies that contrast different administrative regimes remain scarce. This study represents an initial empirical effort to validate the Public Service Motivation (PSM) instrument proposed by Kim and colleagues (2013) in a previously unstudied context. The two former communist countries analyzed in this dissertation—Belarus and Poland— followed diametrically opposite development strategies: a fully decentralized administrative regime in Poland and a highly centralized regime in Belarus. The employees (n = 677) of public and nonprofit organizations in the border regions of Podlaskie Wojewodstwo (Poland) and Hrodna Voblasc (Belarus) are the subjects of study. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed three dimensions of public service motivation in the two regions: compassion, self-sacrifice, and attraction to public service. The statistical models tested in this dissertation suggest that nonprofit sector employees exhibit higher levels of PSM than their public sector counterparts. Nonprofit sector employees also reveal a similar set of values and work attitudes across the countries. Thus, the study concludes that in terms of PSM, employees of nonprofit organizations constitute a homogenous group that exists atop the administrative regimes. However, the findings propose significant differences between public sector agencies across the two countries. Contrary to expectations, data suggest that organization centralization in Poland is equal to—or for some items even higher than—that of Belarus. We can conclude that the absence of administrative decentralization of service provision in a country does not necessarily undermine decentralized practices within organizations. Further analysis reveals strong correlations between organization centralization and PSM for the Polish sample. Meanwhile, in Belarus, correlations between organization centralization items and PSM are weak and mostly insignificant. The analysis indicates other factors beyond organization centralization that significantly impact PSM in both sectors. PSM of the employees in the studied region is highly correlated with their participation in religious practices, political parties, or labor unions as well as location of their organization in a capital and type of social service provided.

Access to better education: The school choice experience of families served by low-performing elementary public schools in Miami-Dade County

Public school choice education policy attempts to create an education marketplace. Although school choice research has focused on the parent role in the school choice process, little is known about parents served by low-performing schools. Following market theory, students attending low-performing schools should be the primary students attempting to use school choice policy to access high performing schools rather than moving to a better school. However, students remain in these low-performing schools. This study took place in Miami-Dade County, which offers a wide variety of school choice options through charter schools, magnet schools, and open-choice schools. ^ This dissertation utilized a mixed-methods design to examine the decision-making process and school choice options utilized by the parents of students served by low-performing elementary schools in Miami-Dade County. Twenty-two semi-structured interviews were conducted with the parents of students served by low-performing schools. Binary logistic regression models were fitted to the data to compare the demographic characteristics, academic achievement and distance from alternative schooling options between transfers and non-transfers. Multinomial logistic regression models were fitted to the data to evaluate how demographic characteristics, distance to transfer school, and transfer school grade influenced the type of school a transfer student chose. A geographic analysis was conducted to determine how many miles students lived from alternative schooling options and the miles transfer students lived away from their transfer school. ^ The findings of the interview data illustrated that parents’ perceived needs are not being adequately addressed by state policy and county programs. The statistical analysis found that students from higher socioeconomic social groups were not more likely to transfer than students from lower socioeconomic social groups. Additionally, students who did transfer were not likely to end up at a high achieving school. The findings of the binary logistic regression demonstrated that transfer students were significantly more likely to live near alternative school options.^

Public-Private Partnership Design for Inclusive Cocoa Global Value Chains in Ghana

Within 10 years, there could be a severe global shortage in the supply of cocoa, according to industry practitioners and other experts. Due to global population growth and the emergence of a growing global middle class, by 2025 the cocoa crop would need to increase by nearly 50 per cent to keep up with projected demand. A potential shortage of supply is a direct threat to the business model of lead firms – including cocoa grinders and processors, chocolate confectioners, and retail distributors. But these international firms – the ones that will suffer the most if there is a shortage of cocoa supply – are helping create the market failure that is stifling sustainability. Functioning as a two-tiered consolidated oligopoly with a combined market share of approximately 89%, these firms enjoy the largest portion of value capture in the cocoa-chocolate global value chain (GVC). The smallholder cocoa producers, conversely, are trapped in low value-add segments of the GVC. In fact, most smallholder farmers survive on less than $1.00 per day per capita, on average in many cocoa exporting countries. In Ghana - the second largest producer of cocoa in the world - the government has accomplished little to help these smallholders upgrade and make cocoa an attractive sector for the next generation to inherit. The result – both in Ghana and around the world – is a lack of sustainability of the supply of cocoa. Demand is already beginning to outstrip supply. As a result of these underlying circumstances, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has posed the following policy question: "Under what conditions could USAID, as a development agency, support and enhance potential public-private partnerships in order to improve the bargaining power (and financial wherewithal) of smallholder organizations and farmers in the context of the global value chain for cocoa in Ghana?"