959 resultados para Prediction systems
Resumo:
This paper is devoted to the problems of finding the load flow feasibility, saddle node, and Hopf bifurcation boundaries in the space of power system parameters. The first part contains a review of the existing relevant approaches including not-so-well-known contributions from Russia. The second part presents a new robust method for finding the power system load flow feasibility boundary on the plane defined by any three vectors of dependent variables (nodal voltages), called the Delta plane. The method exploits some quadratic and linear properties of the load now equations and state matrices written in rectangular coordinates. An advantage of the method is that it does not require an iterative solution of nonlinear equations (except the eigenvalue problem). In addition to benefits for visualization, the method is a useful tool for topological studies of power system multiple solution structures and stability domains. Although the power system application is developed, the method can be equally efficient for any quadratic algebraic problem.
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We use the finite element method to solve the coupled problem between convective pore-fluid flow, heat transfer and mineralization in layered hydrothermal systems with upward throughflow. In particular, we present the improved rock alteration index (IRAI) concept for predicting the most probable precipitation and dissolution regions of gold (Au) minerals in the systems. To validate the numerical method used in the computation, analytical solutions to a benchmark problem have been derived. After the numerical method is validated, it is used to investigate the pattern of pore-fluid Aom, the distribution of temperature and the mineralization pattern of gold minerals in a layered hydrothermal system with upward throughflow. The related numerical results have demonstrated that the present concept of IRAI is useful and applicable for predicting the most probable precipitation and dissolution regions of gold (Au) minerals in hydrothermal systems. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.
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We show that an arbitrary system described by two dipole moments exhibits coherent superpositions of internal states that can be completely decoupled fi om the dissipative interactions (responsible for decoherence) and an external driving laser field. These superpositions, known as dark or trapping states, can he completely stable or can coherently interact with the remaining states. We examine the master equation describing the dissipative evolution of the system and identify conditions for population trapping and also classify processes that can transfer the population to these undriven and nondecaying states. It is shown that coherent transfers are possible only if the two systems are nonidentical, that is the transitions have different frequencies and/or decay rates. in particular, we find that the trapping conditions can involve both coherent and dissipative interactions, and depending on the energy level structure of the system, the population can be trapped in a linear superposition of two or more bare states, a dressed state corresponding to an eigenstate of the system plus external fields or, in some cases. in one of the excited states of the system. A comprehensive analysis is presented of the different processes that are responsible for population trapping, and we illustrate these ideas with three examples of two coupled systems: single V- and Lambda-type three-level atoms and two nonidentical tao-level atoms, which are known to exhibit dark states. We show that the effect of population trapping does not necessarily require decoupling of the antisymmetric superposition from the dissipative interactions. We also find that the vacuum-induced coherent coupling between the systems could be easily observed in Lambda-type atoms. Our analysis of the population trapping in two nonidentical atoms shows that the atoms can be driven into a maximally entangled state which is completely decoupled from the dissipative interaction.
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In this paper we present a model of specification-based testing of interactive systems. This model provides the basis for a framework to guide such testing. Interactive systems are traditionally decomposed into a functionality component and a user interface component; this distinction is termed dialogue separation and is the underlying basis for conceptual and architectural models of such systems. Correctness involves both proper behaviour of the user interface and proper computation by the underlying functionality. Specification-based testing is one method used to increase confidence in correctness, but it has had limited application to interactive system development to date.
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An extensive research program focused on the characterization of various metallurgical complex smelting and coal combustion slags is being undertaken. The research combines both experimental and thermodynamic modeling studies. The approach is illustrated by work on the PbO-ZnO-Al2O3-FeO-Fe2O3-CaO-SiO2 system. Experimental measurements of the liquidus and solidus have been undertaken under oxidizing and reducing conditions using equilibration, quenching, and electron probe X-ray microanalysis. The experimental program has been planned so as to obtain data for thermodynamic model development as well as for pseudo-ternary Liquidus diagrams that can be used directly by process operators. Thermodynamic modeling has been carried out using the computer system FACT, which contains thermodynamic databases with over 5000 compounds and evaluated solution models. The FACT package is used for the calculation of multiphase equilibria in multicomponent systems of industrial interest. A modified quasi-chemical solution model is used for the liquid slag phase. New optimizations have been carried out, which significantly improve the accuracy of the thermodynamic models for lead/zinc smelting and coal combustion processes. Examples of experimentally determined and calculated liquidus diagrams are presented. These examples provide information of direct relevance to various metallurgical smelting and coal combustion processes.
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The objective of the present study was to evaluate the performance of a new bioelectrical impedance instrument, the Soft Tissue Analyzer (STA), which predicts a subject's body composition. A cross-sectional population study in which the impedance of 205 healthy adult subjects was measured using the STA. Extracellular water (ECW) volume (as a percentage of total body water, TBW) and fat-free mass (FFM) were predicted by both the STA and a compartmental model, and compared according to correlation and limits of agreement analysis, with the equivalent data obtained by independent reference methods of measurement (TBW measured by D2O dilution, and FFM measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry). There was a small (2.0 kg) but significant (P < 0.02) difference in mean FFM predicted by the STA, compared with the reference technique in the males, but not in the females (-0.4 kg) or in the combined group (0.8 kg). Both methods were highly correlated. Similarly, small but significant differences for predicted mean ECW volume were observed. The limits of agreement for FFM and ECW were -7.5-9.9 and -4.1-3.0 kg, respectively. Both FFM and ECW (as a percentage of TBW) are well predicted by the STA on a population basis, but the magnitude of the limits of agreement with reference methods may preclude its usefulness for predicting body composition in an individual. In addition, the theoretical basis of an impedance method that does not include a measure of conductor length requires further validation. (C) Elsevier Science Inc. 2000.
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The substitution reactions of SMe2 by phosphines (PMePh2, PEtPh2, PPh3, P(4-MeC6H4)(3), P(3-MeC6H4)(3), PCy3) on Pt-IV complexes having a cyclometalated imine ligand, two methyl groups in a cis-geometrical arrangement, a halogen, and a dimethyl sulfide as ligands, [Pt(CN)(CH3)(2)(X)(SMe2)], have been studied as a function of temperature, solvent, and electronic and steric characteristics of the phosphines and the X and CN ligands. In all cases, a limiting dissociative mechanism has been found, where the dissociation of the SMe2 ligand corresponds to the rate-determining step. The pentacoordinated species formed behaves as a true pentacoordinated Pt-IV compound in a steady-state concentration, given the solvent independence of the rate constant. The X-ray crystal structures of two of the dimethyl sulfide complexes and a derivative of the pentacoordinate intermediate have been determined. Differences in the individual rate constants for the entrance of the phosphine ligand can only be estimated as reactivity ratios. In all cases an effect of the phosphine size is detected, indicating that an associative step takes place from the pentacoordinated intermediate. The nature of the (CN) imine and X ligands produces differences in the dimethyl sulfide dissociation reactions rates, which can be quantified by the corresponding DeltaS double dagger values (72, 64, 48, 31, and 78 J K-1 mol(-1) for CN/X being C6H4CHNCH2C6H5/Br, C6H4CHNCH2-(2,4,6-(CH3)(3))C6H2/Br, C6H4CHNCH2C6H5/Cl, C6Cl4CHNCH2C6H5/Cl, and C6W4CH2NCHC6H5/ Pr, respectively). As a whole, the donor character of the coordinated C-aromatic and X atoms have the greatest influence on the dissociativeness of the rate-determining step.
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Objectives. The present study was designed to test the diathesis-stress components of Beck's cognitive theory of depression and the reformulated learned helplessness model of depression in the prediction of postpartum depressive symptomatology. Design and methods. The research used a two-wave longitudinal design-data were collected from 65 primiparous women during their third trimester of pregnancy and then 6 weeks after the birth. Cognitive vulnerability and initial depressive symptomatology were assessed at Time 1, whereas stress and postpartum depressive symptomatology were assessed at Time 2. Results. There was some support for the diathesis-stress component of Beck's cognitive theory, to the extent that the negative relationship between both general and maternal-specific dysfunctional attitudes associated with performance evaluation and Time 2 depressive symptomatology was strongest for women who reported high levels of parental stress. In a similar vein, the effects of dysfunctional attitudes (general and maternal-specific) associated with performance evaluation and need for approval (general measure only) on partner ratings of emotional distress were evident only among those women whose infants were rated as being temperamentally difficult. Conclusion. There was no support for the diathesis-stress component of the reformulated learned helplessness model of depression; however, there was some support for the diathesis-stress component of Beck's cognitive theory.
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The fine structure of a directed triple system of index lambda is the vector (c(1), c(2),...,C-lambda), where c(i) is the number of directed triples appearing precisely i times in the system. We determine necessary and sufficient conditions for a vector to be the fine structure of a directed triple system of index 3 for upsilon = 2 (mod 3).
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The reported experimental work on the systems Fe-Zn-O and Fe-Zn-Si-O in equilibrium with metallic iron is part of a wider research program that combines experimental and thermodynamic computer modeling techniques to characterize zinc/lead industrial slags and sinters in the system PbO-ZnO-SiO2-CaO-FeO-Fe2O3. Extensive experimental,investigations using high-temperature equilibration and quenching techniques followed by electron probe X-ray microanalysis (EPMA) were carried out. Special experimental; procedures were developed to enable accurate measurements in these ZnO-containing systems to be performed in equilibrium with metallic iron; The systems Fe-Zn-O and FeZn-Si-O were experimentally investigated in equilibrium with metallic iron in the temperature ranges 900 degreesC to 1200 degreesC (1173 to 1473 K) and from 1000 degreesC to 1350 degreesC (1273 to 1623 K), respectively. The liquidus surface in the system Fe-Zn-Si-O in equilibrium with metallic iron was characterized in the composition ranges 0 to 33 wt pet ZnO and 0 to 40 wt pet SiO2. The wustite (Fe,Zn)O, zincite (Zn,Fe)O, willemite (Zn,Fe)(2)SiO4, arid fayalite: (Fe,Zn)(2)SiO4 solid solutions in equilibrium with metallic iron were measured.
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Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.
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Two integrable quantum spin ladder systems will be introduced associated with the fundamental su(2 \2) solution of the Yang-Baxter equation. The first model is a generalized quantum Ising system with Ising rung interactions. In the second model the addition of extra interactions allows us to impose Heisenberg rung interactions without violating integrability. The existence of a Bethe ansatz solution for both models allows us to investigate the elementary excitations for antiferromagnetic rung couplings. We find that the first model does not show a gap whilst in the second case there is a gap for all positive values of the rung coupling.
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The simultaneous design of the steady-state and dynamic performance of a process has the ability to satisfy much more demanding dynamic performance criteria than the design of dynamics only by the connection of a control system. A method for designing process dynamics based on the use of a linearised systems' eigenvalues has been developed. The eigenvalues are associated with system states using the unit perturbation spectral resolution (UPSR), characterising the dynamics of each state. The design method uses a homotopy approach to determine a final design which satisfies both steady-state and dynamic performance criteria. A highly interacting single stage forced circulation evaporator system, including control loops, was designed by this method with the goal of reducing the time taken for the liquid composition to reach steady-state. Initially the system was successfully redesigned to speed up the eigenvalue associated with the liquid composition state, but this did not result in an improved startup performance. Further analysis showed that the integral action of the composition controller was the source of the limiting eigenvalue. Design changes made to speed up this eigenvalue did result in an improved startup performance. The proposed approach provides a structured way to address the design-control interface, giving significant insight into the dynamic behaviour of the system such that a systematic design or redesign of an existing system can be undertaken with confidence.
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This paper discusses an object-oriented neural network model that was developed for predicting short-term traffic conditions on a section of the Pacific Highway between Brisbane and the Gold Coast in Queensland, Australia. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated through a time-lag recurrent network (TLRN) which was developed for predicting speed data up to 15 minutes into the future. The results obtained indicate that the TLRN is capable of predicting speed up to 5 minutes into the future with a high degree of accuracy (90-94%). Similar models, which were developed for predicting freeway travel times on the same facility, were successful in predicting travel times up to 15 minutes into the future with a similar degree of accuracy (93-95%). These results represent substantial improvements on conventional model performance and clearly demonstrate the feasibility of using the object-oriented approach for short-term traffic prediction. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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We describe a population of compact objects in the centre of the Fornax Cluster which were discovered as part of our 2dF Fornax Spectroscopic Survey. These objects have spectra typical of old stellar systems, but are unresolved on photographic sky survey plates. They have absolute magnitudes - 13 < M-B