A practical approach to a multi-level analysis with a sparse binary outcome within a large surgical trial

Objectives: To assess the potential source of variation that surgeon may add to patient outcome in a clinical trial of surgical procedures. Methods: Two large (n = 1380) parallel multicentre randomized surgical trials were undertaken to compare laparoscopically assisted hysterectomy with conventional methods of abdominal and vaginal hysterectomy; involving 43 surgeons. The primary end point of the trial was the occurrence of at least one major complication. Patients were nested within surgeons giving the data set a hierarchical structure. A total of 10% of patients had at least one major complication, that is, a sparse binary outcome variable. A linear mixed logistic regression model (with logit link function) was used to model the probability of a major complication, with surgeon fitted as a random effect. Models were fitted using the method of maximum likelihood in SAS((R)). Results: There were many convergence problems. These were resolved using a variety of approaches including; treating all effects as fixed for the initial model building; modelling the variance of a parameter on a logarithmic scale and centring of continuous covariates. The initial model building process indicated no significant 'type of operation' across surgeon interaction effect in either trial, the 'type of operation' term was highly significant in the abdominal trial, and the 'surgeon' term was not significant in either trial. Conclusions: The analysis did not find a surgeon effect but it is difficult to conclude that there was not a difference between surgeons. The statistical test may have lacked sufficient power, the variance estimates were small with large standard errors, indicating that the precision of the variance estimates may be questionable.

Assessment of long chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid status and clinical outcome in adults receiving home parenteral nutrition

Background & aims: Long term parenteral nutrition rarely supplies the long chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), docosapentaenoic acid (DPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA). The aim of this study was to assess long chain n-3 PUFA status in patients receiving home parenteral. nutrition (HPN). Methods: Plasma phospholipid fatty acids were measured in 64 adult HPN patients and compared with 54 age, sex and BMI matched controls. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors related to plasma fatty acid fractions in the HPN patients, and to identify factors associated with the risk of clinical. complications. Results: Plasma phospholipid fractions of EPA, DPA and DHA were significantly tower in patients receiving HPN. Factors independently associated with tow fractions included high parenteral energy provision, tow parenteral lipid intake, tow BMI and prolonged duration of HPN. Long chain n-3 PUFA fractions were not associated with incidence of either central venous catheter associated infection or central venous thrombosis. However, the fraction of EPA were inversely associated with plasma alkaline phosphatase concentrations. Conclusions: This study demonstrates abnormal long chain n-3 PUFA profiles in patients receiving HPN. Reduced fatty acid intake may be partly responsible. Fatty acid metabolism may also be altered. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Controlled trial of the short- and long-term effect of psychological treatment of post-partum depression 2. Impact on the mother-child relationship and child outcome

Background: Postnatal depression is associated with adverse child cognitive and socio-emotional outcome. It is not known whether psychological treatment affects the quality of the mother-child relationship and child outcome. Aims: To evaluate the effect of three psychological treatments on the mother-child relationship and child outcome. Method: Women with post-partum depression (n=193) were assigned randomly to routine primary care, non-directive counselling, cognitive-behavioural therapy or psychodynamic therapy The women and their children, were assessed at 43, [8 and 60 months post-partum. Results: Indications of a positive benefit were limited. All three treatments had a significant benefit on maternal reports of early difficulties in relationships with the infants, counselling gave better infant emotional and behaviour ratings at 18 months and more sensitive early mother-infant interactions. The treatments had no significant impact on maternal management of early infant behaviour problems, security of infant-mother attachment. Infant cognitive development or any child outcome at 5 years. Conclusions: Early intervention was of short-term benefit to the mother-child relationship and infant behaviour problems. More-prolonged intervention may be needed. Health visitors could deliver this.

Does repairing a cleft lip neonatally have any effect on the longer-term attractiveness of the repair?

Objective: To determine whether attractiveness and success of surgical outcome differ according to the timing of cleft lip repair. Design: Three experiments were conducted: (1) surgeons rated postoperative medical photographs of infants having either neonatal or 3-month lip repair; (2) lay panelists rated the same photographs; (3) lay panelists rated dynamic video displays of the infants made at 12 months. Normal comparison infants were also rated. The order of stimuli was randomized, and panelists were blind to timing of lip repair and the purposes of the study. Setting: Four U.K. regional centers for cleft lip and palate. Participants: Infants with isolated clefts of the lip, with and without palate. Intervention: Early lip repair was conducted at median age 4 days (inter-quartile range [IQR] = 4), and late repair at 104 days (IQR = 57). Main Outcome Measures: Ratings of surgical outcome (Experiment 1 only) and attractiveness (all experiments) on 5-point Likert scales. Results: In Experiment 1 success of surgical outcome was comparable for early and late repair groups (difference = -0.08; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.43 to 0.28; p = .66). In all three experiments, attractiveness ratings were comparable for the two groups. Differences were, respectively, 0.10 (95% CI = -2.3 to 0.44, p = .54); -0.11 (95% CI = -0.42 to -0.19, p = .54); and 0.08 (95% CI = -0.11 to 0.28, p =.41). Normal infants were rated more attractive than index infants (difference = 0.38; 95% CI = 0.24 to 0.52; p < .001). Conclusion: Neonatal repair for cleft of the lip confers no advantage over repair at 3 months in terms of perceived infant attractiveness or success of surgical outcome.

Treatment of child anxiety. an exploratory study of the role of maternal anxiety and behaviours in treatment outcome

Anxiety disorders are common among parents of anxious children and have been found to impede child treatment outcomes, yet it is unclear whether it is parental anxiety that needs to be targeted in therapy or associated parental behaviours. Twenty-two children (6-12 years) with a current anxiety disorder and their mothers received cognitive-behavioural treatment (CBT) for child anxiety. In addition, of the 12 mothers who met criteria for a current anxiety disorder, 6 received CBT for their own disorder. Assessments were made of the mother-child interaction. The main findings were: (1) children did less well from treatment where their mothers had a current anxiety disorder; (2) treatment of maternal anxiety disorder did not improve child treatment outcome; and (3) maternal overinvolvement and expression of fear was associated with child treatment outcome. The results suggest that in the context of maternal anxiety disorder, child treatment outcome may be improved by specifically targeting parenting behaviours. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Analysis of the Fugl-Meyer outcome measures assessing the effectiveness of robot-mediated stroke therapy

Robot-mediated therapies offer a new approach to neurorehabilitation. This paper analyses the Fugl-Meyer data from the Gentle/S project and finds that the two intervention phases (sling suspension and robot mediated therapy) have approximately equal value to the further recovery of chronic stroke subjects (on average 27 months post stroke). Both sling suspension and robot mediated interventions show a recovery over baseline and further work is needed to establish the common factors in treatment, and to establish intervention protocols for each that will give individual subjects a maximum level of recovery.

Multivariate analysis of the Fugl-Meyer outcome measures assessing the effectiveness of GENTLE/S robot-mediated stroke therapy

Background: Robot-mediated therapies offer entirely new approaches to neurorehabilitation. In this paper we present the results obtained from trialling the GENTLE/S neurorehabilitation system assessed using the upper limb section of the Fugl-Meyer ( FM) outcome measure. Methods: We demonstrate the design of our clinical trial and its results analysed using a novel statistical approach based on a multivariate analytical model. This paper provides the rational for using multivariate models in robot-mediated clinical trials and draws conclusions from the clinical data gathered during the GENTLE/S study. Results: The FM outcome measures recorded during the baseline ( 8 sessions), robot-mediated therapy ( 9 sessions) and sling-suspension ( 9 sessions) was analysed using a multiple regression model. The results indicate positive but modest recovery trends favouring both interventions used in GENTLE/S clinical trial. The modest recovery shown occurred at a time late after stroke when changes are not clinically anticipated. Conclusion: This study has applied a new method for analysing clinical data obtained from rehabilitation robotics studies. While the data obtained during the clinical trial is of multivariate nature, having multipoint and progressive nature, the multiple regression model used showed great potential for drawing conclusions from this study. An important conclusion to draw from this paper is that this study has shown that the intervention and control phase both caused changes over a period of 9 sessions in comparison to the baseline. This might indicate that use of new challenging and motivational therapies can influence the outcome of therapies at a point when clinical changes are not expected. Further work is required to investigate the effects arising from early intervention, longer exposure and intensity of the therapies. Finally, more function-oriented robot-mediated therapies or sling-suspension therapies are needed to clarify the effects resulting from each intervention for stroke recovery.

Nutritional status and clinical outcome in elderly female surgical orthopaedic patients

The possible relationship between nutritional status and clinical outcome following orthopaedic hip surgery was investigated. The nutritional status of 60 elderly female patients admitted for elective total hip replacement (THR) and emergency fractured neck of femur surgery (FNF) was measured over time. Specific measures of clinical outcome, including well-being and functional status, were monitored during hospital stay and at 4, 8 and 26 weeks following discharge. Patients were allocated to a high nutritional risk group where any three of the following were less than the 5th percentile value: serum albumin, haemoglobin, triceps skinfold thickness, mid-upper arm muscle circumference and body weight. Using this definition, malnutrition was present in 4% of THR patients and 41% of FNF patients. It was found that the high risk patients had significantly longer convalescence periods, (median stay27.5 days compared with 0 days, P < 0.0009), and a greater proportion were dependent upon walking frames at 6 months (46% compared with 11%, P < 0.01). Fifty percent of the high risk patients had been living independently prior to admission, in contrast only 29% had returned to their homes at 6 months after discharge. The results indicate an apparent link between clinical outcome and nutritional status based upon the allocation procedure employed, which has the potential for ensuring cost-effective nutritional intervention.

Codon and mRNA sequence optimization of microdystrophin transgenes improves expression and physiological outcome in dystrophic mdx mice following AAV2/8 gene transfer

Duchenne muscular dystrophy is a fatal muscle-wasting disorder. Lack of dystrophin compromises the integrity of the sarcolemma and results in myofibers that are highly prone to contraction-induced injury. Recombinant adenoassociated virus (rAAV)-mediated dystrophin gene transfer strategies to muscle for the treatment of Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) have been limited by the small cloning capacity of rAAV vectors and high titers necessary to achieve efficient systemic gene transfer. In this study, we assess the impact of codon optimization on microdystrophin (ΔAB/R3-R18/ΔCT) expression and function in the mdx mouse and compare the function of two different configurations of codon-optimized microdystrophin genes (ΔAB/R3-R18/ΔCT and ΔR4-R23/ΔCT) under the control of a muscle-restrictive promoter (Spc5-12). Codon optimization of microdystrophin significantly increases levels of microdystrophin mRNA and protein after intramuscular and systemic administration of plasmid DNA or rAAV2/8. Physiological assessment demonstrates that codon optimization of ΔAB/R3-R18/ΔCT results in significant improvement in specific force, but does not improve resistance to eccentric contractions compared with noncodon-optimized ΔAB/ R3-R18/ΔCT. However, codon-optimized microdystrophin ΔR4-R23/ΔCT completely restored specific force generation and provided substantial protection from contraction-induced injury. These results demonstrate that codon optimization of microdystrophin under the control of a muscle-specific promoter can significantly improve expression levels such that reduced titers of rAAV vectors will be required for efficient systemic administration.

Factors contributing to fecal incontinence in older people and outcome of routine management in home, hospital and nursing home settings

Objective: Fecal loading, cognitive impairment, loose stools, functional disability, comorbidity and anorectal incontinence are recognized as factors contributing to loss of fecal continence in older adults. The objective of this project was to assess the relative distribution of these factors in a variety of settings along with the outcome of usual management. Methods: One hundred and twenty adults aged 65 years and over with fecal incontinence recruited by convenience sampling from four different settings were studied. They were either living at home or in a nursing home or receiving care on an acute or rehabilitation elderly care ward. A structured questionnaire was used to elicit which factors associated with fecal incontinence were present from subjects who had given written informed consent or for whom assent for inclusion in the study had been obtained. Results: Fecal loading (Homes 6 [20%]; Acute care wards 17 [57%]; Rehabilitation wards 19 [63%]; Nursing homes 21 [70%]) and functional disability (Homes 5 [17%]; Acute care wards 25 [83%]; Rehabilitation wards 25 [83%]; Nursing homes 20 [67%]) were significantly more prevalent in the hospital and nursing home settings than in those living at home (P < 0.01). Loose stools were more prevalent in the hospital setting than in the other settings (Homes 11 [37%]; Acute care wards 20 [67%]; Rehabilitation wards 17 [57%]; Nursing homes 6 [20%]) (P < 0.01). Cognitive impairment was significantly more common in the nursing home than in the other settings (Nursing homes 26 [87%], Homes 5 [17%], Acute care wards 13 [43%], Rehabilitation wards 14 [47%]) (P < 0.01). Loose stools were the most prevalent factor present at baseline in 13 of the 19 (68%) subjects whose fecal incontinence had resolved at 3 months. Conclusion: The distribution of the factors contributing to fecal incontinence in older people living at home differs from those cared for in nursing home and hospital wards settings. These differences need to be borne in mind when assessing people in different settings. Management appears to result in a cure for those who are not significantly disabled with loose stools as a cause for their fecal incontinence, but this would need to be confirmed by further research.

Expected value, reward outcome, and temporal difference error representations in a probabilistic decision task

In probabilistic decision tasks, an expected value (EV) of a choice is calculated, and after the choice has been made, this can be updated based on a temporal difference (TD) prediction error between the EV and the reward magnitude (RM) obtained. The EV is measured as the probability of obtaining a reward x RM. To understand the contribution of different brain areas to these decision-making processes, functional magnetic resonance imaging activations related to EV versus RM (or outcome) were measured in a probabilistic decision task. Activations in the medial orbitofrontal cortex were correlated with both RM and with EV and confirmed in a conjunction analysis to extend toward the pregenual cingulate cortex. From these representations, TD reward prediction errors could be produced. Activations in areas that receive from the orbitofrontal cortex including the ventral striatum, midbrain, and inferior frontal gyrus were correlated with the TD error. Activations in the anterior insula were correlated negatively with EV, occurring when low reward outcomes were expected, and also with the uncertainty of the reward, implicating this region in basic and crucial decision-making parameters, low expected outcomes, and uncertainty.

Resistance to the anticoagulant rodenticides – the deployment of the new molecular methodology to identify mutations of the VKORC1 ‘resistance gene’, and understanding their potential impact on treatment outcome

Anticoagulants rodenticides have already known for over half a century, as effective and safe method of rodent control. However, discovered in 1958 anticoagulant resistance has given us a very important problem for their future long-term use. Laboratory tests provide the main method for identification the different types of anticoagulant resistances, quantify the magnitude of their effect and help us to choose the best pest control strategy. The main important tests are lethal feeding period (LFP) and blood clotting response (BCR) tests. These tests can now be used to quantify the likely effect of the resistance on treatment outcome by providing an estimate of the ‘resistance factor’. In 2004 the gene responsible for anticoagulant resistance (VKORC1) was identified and sequenced. As a result, a new molecular resistance testing methodology has been developed, and a number of resistance mutations, particularly in Norway rats and house mice. Three mutations of the VKORC1 gene in Norway rats have been identified to date that confer a degree of resistance to bromadiolone and difenacoum, sufficient to affect treatment outcome in the field.

Data-driven treatment selection for seamless phase II/III trials incorporating early-outcome data

Seamless phase II/III clinical trials are conducted in two stages with treatment selection at the first stage. In the first stage, patients are randomized to a control or one of k > 1 experimental treatments. At the end of this stage, interim data are analysed, and a decision is made concerning which experimental treatment should continue to the second stage. If the primary endpoint is observable only after some period of follow-up, at the interim analysis data may be available on some early outcome on a larger number of patients than those for whom the primary endpoint is available. These early endpoint data can thus be used for treatment selection. For two previously proposed approaches, the power has been shown to be greater for one or other method depending on the true treatment effects and correlations. We propose a new approach that builds on the previously proposed approaches and uses data available at the interim analysis to estimate these parameters and then, on the basis of these estimates, chooses the treatment selection method with the highest probability of correctly selecting the most effective treatment. This method is shown to perform well compared with the two previously described methods for a wide range of true parameter values. In most cases, the performance of the new method is either similar to or, in some cases, better than either of the two previously proposed methods.