Essays in macroeconomy and dynamic term-structure models

This thesis is composed of three articles with the subjects of macroeconomics and - nance. Each article corresponds to a chapter and is done in paper format. In the rst article, which was done with Axel Simonsen, we model and estimate a small open economy for the Canadian economy in a two country General Equilibrium (DSGE) framework. We show that it is important to account for the correlation between Domestic and Foreign shocks and for the Incomplete Pass-Through. In the second chapter-paper, which was done with Hedibert Freitas Lopes, we estimate a Regime-switching Macro-Finance model for the term-structure of interest rates to study the US post-World War II (WWII) joint behavior of macro-variables and the yield-curve. We show that our model tracks well the US NBER cycles, the addition of changes of regime are important to explain the Expectation Theory of the term structure, and macro-variables have increasing importance in recessions to explain the variability of the yield curve. We also present a novel sequential Monte-Carlo algorithm to learn about the parameters and the latent states of the Economy. In the third chapter, I present a Gaussian A ne Term Structure Model (ATSM) with latent jumps in order to address two questions: (1) what are the implications of incorporating jumps in an ATSM for Asian option pricing, in the particular case of the Brazilian DI Index (IDI) option, and (2) how jumps and options a ect the bond risk-premia dynamics. I show that jump risk-premia is negative in a scenario of decreasing interest rates (my sample period) and is important to explain the level of yields, and that gaussian models without jumps and with constant intensity jumps are good to price Asian options.

O milhão restante, o Brasil e a evolução da proteção internacional a refugiados (1946-1952)

Quando a II Guerra Mundial chegou ao fim, calcula-se que havia até 40 milhões de europeus deslocados de seu local de origem. Inicialmente, coube à Agência das Nações Unidas para Auxílio e Restabelecimento (ANUAR) repatriar essas pessoas. Diante da crescente resistência de muitas em retornar para casa, foi criada pela ONU a Organização Internacional de Refugiados (OIR). De 1947 a 1951, quando foi substituída pelo ACNUR, foi responsável por reassentar mais de 1 milhão de pessoas em diferentes países. O Brasil foi um deles. Diante deste quadro, a presente dissertação busca compreender, em primeiro lugar, a construção do maquinário internacional de proteção de refugiados surgido no pós-guerra no âmbito da ONU. Em seguida, analisar de que maneira o Brasil se inseriu nele. Qual o papel que teve na criação do regime? Quais interesses tinha em vista ao receber os refugiados? São algumas das perguntas para as quais o presente estudo procurou encontrar respostas.

Theory and practice of industrial policy: evidence from the Latin American experience

Includes bibliography

"Tra centro e periferia" Istituzioni e processi di industrializzazione nella Sicilia del secondo dopoguerra

In Sicilia lo strumento principale che ha caratterizzato le modalità d’intervento dei poteri pubblici in economia è stato quello della partecipazione diretta o indiretta, quello cioè della Regione che si propone come ente fautore del sostegno allo sviluppo dell’industria e successivamente come soggetto imprenditore. Le formule organizzative attraverso le quali si è concretizzato l’intervento regionale in economia furono la società per azioni a partecipazione regionale, l’azienda autonoma regionale e l’ente pubblico regionale1. La storia dello sviluppo economico siciliano nel secondo dopoguerra conferma come il ricorso allo strumento dell’ente pubblico economico sia stato molto frequente nella realtà locale come, peraltro, anche in altre Regioni d’Italia. Tracce, queste, di una vicenda storica che intuiamo subito avere complesse implicazioni tali da generare la necessità di interrogarsi sul modo nel quale le istituzioni politiche hanno influito sulle dinamiche economiche siciliane nel secondo dopoguerra; per quanto noti e approfonditi siano stati infatti gli elementi caratterizzanti e i percorsi peculiari dello sviluppo economico siciliano, rimangono scarsamente approfonditi il tenore dei rapporti e i nessi politici, istituzionali ed economici tra centro e periferia, in altre parole rimane ancora parzialmente inesplorata quella parte dell’indagine inerente l’evoluzione dei processi di industrializzazione della Sicilia nel secondo dopoguerra attuata parallelamente dalle autorità regionali e dallo Stato attraverso i loro enti e strumenti. È lecito chiedersi quali siano stati i tempi, le modalità, gli ostacoli e gli eventuali risultati delle azioni di pianificazione intraprese dai poteri pubblici centrali e regionali nella prospettiva dello sviluppo economico del territorio; il coordinamento delle azioni di promozione del progresso industriale si presentava in tal senso, sin dall’inizio, come una delle sfide fondamentali per un adeguato e consistente rilancio economico delle aree più arretrate del Mezzogiorno italiano; ecco che lo studio dei provvedimenti legislativi emanati rappresenta un approfondimento indispensabile e obiettivo primario di questo lavoro.

Das deutsche Kriegsgefangenenwesen 1939 - 1945

Zusammenfassung: Die vorliegende Untersuchung zum deutschen Kriegsgefangenenwesen (KGW) im Zweiten Weltkrieg schließt eine wichtige Lücke innerhalb der geschichtswissenschaftlichen Forschungen zum Themenkreis der Kriegsgefangenschaft in deutschem Gewahrsam. Bisherige Studien (bis einschließlich 1997) behandeln vor allem sozial- und kulturgeschichtliche Aspekte der Kriegsgefangenen (Kgf.), der Lagergesellschaft und dem Alltag von Soldaten in Kriegsgefangenschaft. Der Verfasser indes legt mit seiner Magisterarbeit erstmals eine Organisations- und Strukturgeschichte des deutschen Kriegsgefangenenwesens von 1939 bis 1945 vor, welche fundamentale Grundlagen der deutschen militärischen Lagerorganisation und Verwaltung dokumentiert. So wird die Entwicklung von den Vorkriegsplanungen bis zum Kriegsende anhand der zentralen Dienststellen herausgearbeitet und im Kontext des Genfer Kriegsgefangenenabkommens von 1929 und völkerrechtlicher Implikationen gewichtet. Hiermit untrennbar verbundene Einflußnahmen nichtmilitärischer Stellen in die Entscheidungsgewalt der Streitkräfte im Heimatkriegsgebiet und in den Wehrmachtbefehlshaberbereichen werden nicht zuletzt auch anhand mehrerer Organigramme veranschaulicht. Zudem dokumentiert und analysiert die Untersuchung die im Kriegsverlauf stetig verschärften Maßnahmen zur Fluchtprävention und der konzertierten Fahndung nach geflohenen Kriegsgefangenen: Die Machterosion des Oberkommandos der Wehrmacht (OKW) zugunsten des Reichsführers-SS, des Reichssicherheitshauptamts und nicht zuletzt der Parteikanzlei der NSDAP wird so augenfällig. Trotz eminenter Schriftgutverluste kann der Verfasser vor allem anhand einer nahezu vollständig erhaltenen Schlüsselquelle die Stellenbesetzung und Organisationsstruktur der mit Kriegsgefangenenfragen befassten Stellen im OKW rekonstruieren. Die Auswertung dieser Sammelmitteilungen / Befehlssammlung für das Kriegsgefangenenwesen sowie an anderer Stelle überlieferter Organisationsbefehle ermöglicht wichtige Änderungen am derzeitigen Forschungsstand. Darüber hinaus beschäftigt sich die vorliegende Untersuchung mit dem Arbeitseinsatz Kriegsgefangener in der deutschen Wirtschaft als in der zweiten Kriegshälfte zentralem Element der Kriegsgefangenschaft. Außerdem wird beleuchtet, welche politischen, (rassen)ideologischen oder reziprok konnotierten Faktoren den Stellenwert gefangener Soldaten unterschiedlicher Nationalität innerhalb der Gefangenenhierarchie im deutschen Kriegsgefangenenwesen bestimmten. Inhalt: 1. Einführung; 2. Die Entwicklung des Kriegsvölkerrechts und das Genfer Kriegsgefangenenabkommen von 1929; 3. Einleitende Bemerkungen zum deutschen Kriegsgefangenenwesen: Quellenlage, Grundlagen; 4. Organisationsstruktur und Aufgaben des KGW: Zuständigkeiten für Kgf. in OKW und OKH, Abt. Wehrmachtverluste und Kriegsgefangene, der General z.b.V. für das KGW 1939 bis Ende 1941, Allgemeine und Organisationsabteilung seit Januar 1942, Generalinspekteur und Inspekteur des KGW von Juli 1943 bis Oktober 1944, das Kriegsgefangenenwesen unter Himmler seit Oktober 1944; 5. Die Kriegsgefangenenlager: Lagertypen, Anzahl und Verwendung, die Gesamtzahl Kgf. und Belegstärken ausgewählter Lager; 6. Richtlinien für KGL: Die Sammelmitteilungen / Befehlssammlung für das KGW, Lagerorganisation und Behandlung Kriegsgefangener; 7. Die Post der Kriegsgefangenen: Tätigkeit von Auslandsbriefprüfstelle, Abwehr III Referat Kgf. und Abwehrstellen der Wehrkreise, Vorgaben für Postüberwachung und Stimmungsberichte der Asten, Befehle zur Kgf-Post und Kooperation mit Hilfsorganisationen und Schutzmächten; 8. Fluchtprävention: Bestimmungen und Maßnahmen zur Fluchtvereitelung, der Fluchterlass vom 22.09.1942, der Sonderfahndungsplan der Sicherheitspolizei und des SD vom 28.09.1942, Erlass zur Kriegsfahndung vom 5.12.1942, der Fluchterlaß vom 02.07.1943, der Erlaß zur Mitarbeit NSDAP bei Groß- und Kriegsfahndungen vom 10.07.1943, Schulung zur Fluchtprävention auf Wehrkreisebene 1944, Preisausschreiben "Wie verhindere ich Fluchten?" vom 09.04.1945, Anwerbung von V-Leuten durch die Abwehr; 9. Arbeitseinsatz Kriegsgefangener in der deutschen Wirtschaft und beteiligte Stellen; 10. Der Status Kriegsgefangener unterschiedlicher Nationalitäten im Vergleich; 11. Schluss

Isolated Islands? Memory of the Holocaust in Formal and Non-Formal Education. The Case Study of Post-Communist Poland

Existing studies revealed several conflicts around the memory of the Holocaust in Poland: between understanding the need to teach about the Holocaust and indifference toward anti-Jewish graffiti; a conflict around the perception of Polish help to Jews; and the competing images of Polish and Jewish suffering during World War II. Those conflicts will be addressed in the paper as reflecting educational gaps in the Polish education system (lack of bad memory). This paper will look at the consciousness of young Poles, in terms of attitudes toward Jews, the Holocaust and memory of the Holocaust. The data presented are the preliminary results of the author’s longitudinal study „Attitudes of Young Poles toward the Jews and the Holocaust”. Quantitative and qualitative studies include field studies and participant observation of educational projects in Tykocin, Treblinka, Warsaw, Lublin, Bodzentyn and Kielce. The paper will present some components of the development of education about the Holocaust in Poland. There is a need to evaluate the attempt to bring back the memory of Jewish neighbours in some of the states of Central and Eastern Europe, a process with an ongoing effort to renovate monuments, destroyed cemeteries and synagogues. The number and scope of such initiatives in Poland indicate that civic institutions and individuals are intensifying their efforts to teach their fellow citizens about the Holocaust, however their impact should be assessed in detail.

Catching Reality or Bowing Disciplines: How to Move the Study of Citizenship

In his contribution, Joppke justifies his selection of foundational scholars by linking each to what he sees as the three key facets of citizenship: status, rights and identity. Maarten Vink explicitly links his research agenda to the first, status, and outlines why it is so important. In identifying three facets of citizenship, Joppke acknowledges that some academics would include political participation, but he ultimately decides against it. But here we can, and should, broaden citizenship studies by bringing in insights from the behavioral politics tradition in domestic politics - when and why people engage in political acts - and from the social movements literature in sociology. I believe that the American debate on immigration reform, admittedly stalled, would not have advanced as far as it has without the social movement activism of DREAMers - unauthorized young people pushing for a path to citizenship - and the belief that Barack Obama won re-election in part because of the Latino vote. Importantly, one type of political activism demands formal citizenship, the other does not. As many contributors note, the “national models” approach has had a significant impact on citizenship studies. Whether one views such models through a cultural, institutional or historical lens, this tends to be a top-down, macro-level framework. What about immigrants’ agency? In Canada, although the ruling Conservative government is shifting citizenship discourse to a more traditional language - as Winter points out - it has not reduced immigration, ended dual citizenship, or eliminated multiculturalism, all goals of the Reform Party that the current prime minister once helped build. “Lock-in” effects (or policy feedback loops) based on high immigrant naturalization and the coming of age of a second-generation with citizenship also d emands study, in North America and elsewhere. Much of the research thus far suggests that political decisions over citizenship status and rights do not seem linked to immigrants’ political activism. State-centered decision-making may have characterized policy in the early post-World War II period in Europe (and East Asia?), but does it continue to hold today? Majority publics and immigrant-origin residents are increasingly politicized around citizenship and immigration. Does immigrant agency extend citizenship status, rights and identity to those born outside the polity? Is electoral power key, or is protest necessary? How is citizenship practiced, and contested, irrespective of formal status? These are important and understudied empirical questions, ones that demand theoretical creativity - across sub-fields and disciplines - in conceptualizing and understanding citizenship in contemporary times.

Road to 1966 : caminos hacia "complejidad y contradicción en la arquitectura", en la cultura arquitectónica de la segunda posguerra en EE.UU

Complejidad y contradicción en la arquitectura ha resultado ser una de las referencias capitales más aludidas, citadas y reproducidas de la literatura arquitectónica de los tiempos recientes. No en vano, en la introducción de la propia obra, Vincent Scully afirmó que «probablemente es el texto más importante sobre arquitectura desde ‘Vers une Architecture’, escrito por Le Corbusier en 1923». Sin embargo, sus fuentes parece que están inexploradas o, al menos, no examinadas. Por ello, Road to 1966 se plantea como un trabajo de investigación con tres objetivos de partida fundamentales: (1) el interés en estudiar el debate arquitectónico candente, creado con las fricciones surgidas entre los protagonistas de unos años que cambiaron el estado de lo que se consideraba una obra legítima en arquitectura; (2) se pretende ampliar la cronología del desarrollo intelectual de un texto, el de Venturi, que marcó la segunda mitad del siglo xx, de manera retroactiva hasta los años de la II Guerra Mundial, cuando parece que empezaban a ser coherentes y reconocibles unas nuevas posiciones desde las que aproximarse a las cuestiones de la práctica, la teoría y la historia de la arquitectura; (3) poder ofrecer una nueva interpretación de dicho texto de Venturi, entendido no como el origen primigenio de parte de las grandes transformaciones de la arquitectura reciente (de los últimos cincuenta años), sino como el resultado necesario de esa cronología intelectual previa. La arquitectura norteamericana de estos años de posguerra ha resultado ser crucial en su posterior desarrollo, y, especialmente, en relación al libro de Venturi. De hecho, Scully en la introducción de la edición original de Complejidad y contradicción, señalaba que «el principal argumento del libro está expuesto a finales de los cincuenta». Que la arquitectura del siglo xx tiene en la Norteamérica de los años sesenta -cuando se consolida la figura de Venturi- uno de sus capítulos más decisivos, frecuentemente asumido como el paso siguiente a la importada modernidad heroica europea, hoy parece no ser discutido por casi nadie. Ahora bien: ¿qué ocurre con los años intermedios? ¿Qué acontece entre el final de la II Guerra Mundial y esos años sesenta? La posible carencia de una postura dominante y clara quizás haya sumido esta etapa en un cierto olvido o descuido por parte de historiadores y críticos. Así, este trabajo se estructura alrededor del papel que ocupa el texto venturiano, sin ser éste su único protagonista. Tomado más bien como excusa, la tesis va profundizando de manera deductiva en el conjunto de circunstancias que pudieron llevar a su autor hacia las conclusiones que desarrolló, detectando los ambientes biográficos y formativos, pensamientos compartidos e influencias epistemológicas y profesionales mutuas, que justificarían una novedosa interpretación de dicho texto como el corolario necesario de un panorama de crisis y cambios - éste sí protagonista en este trabajo-, al contrario de cómo habitualmente se ha venido entendiendo dicha obra. La investigación se centra predominantemente en el rastreo de las fuentes citadas por el propio Venturi en su libro, así como de los textos de mayor difusión (generalmente revistas profesionales no exclusivamente académicas, además de libros, catálogos de exposiciones, actas de simposios…), y no tanto en las obras construidas o proyectadas; sí, quizás, en los términos en los que dichas obras fueron publicadas, comentadas o reseñadas. Así, se ha adoptado una aproximación concebida sub specie bibliotecae, donde se han aplicado unos métodos de trabajo caracterizados por su componente cronológica, y, después, analítico-comparativa: dicho de otro modo, un método historiográfico-periodístico capaz de relacionar las historias o cursos de ciertas ideas o nociones, dentro de un contexto general más amplio en sus derivadas arquitectónicas, estéticas, socio-generacionales, culturales, filosóficas, científicas, políticas, literarias… Con ello, se pretende establecer una relectura del primer libro de Venturi y sus años de gestación desde unas nuevas concepciones, más modernas que postmodern(ist)as, proponiendo una posible evolución en la arquitectura más reciente cuyas raíces, a fin de cuentas, tendrían su origen en la Norteamérica de 1946 a 1966. ABSTRACT Complexity and Contradiction in Architecture has proved to be one of the capital, alluded references cited and reproduced in the architectural literature of the recent times. Not surprisingly, in the Introduction to the book, Vincent Scully wrote that "yet it is probably the most important writing on the making of architecture since Le Corbusier´s ‘Vers une Architecture’, of 1923". However, its sources seem to be unexplored or at least not examined. Therefore, Road to 1966 is presented as a research with three fundamental starting objectives: (1) first, the interest in studying the burning architectural debate, created within the arising frictions among the protagonists of the years that changed the status of what was considered a legitimate work in architecture; (2) second, it seeks to extend the chronology of the intellectual background of the book written by Venturi, which marked the second half of the twentieth century, in a retroactive manner to the years of the World War II, when it seems that some new positions from which to approach the issues of practice, theory and history of architecture began to be consistent and recognizable; (3) lastly, to offer a new interpretation of Venturi’s text, now understood not as the primal source of the great transformations of the recent architecture (of the last fifty years), but as the necessary result of that background intellectual chronology. The American architecture of these post-war years has proved to be crucial in its later stages, and especially in relation to the book of Robert Venturi. In fact, Scully in the Introduction to the first edition of Complexity and Contradiction, noted that "the major argument of this book was laid out in the late fifties". The fact that the architecture of the twentieth century –when the leading figure of Venturi was consolidated- has in the North America of the sixties one of its most decisive chapters, (often assumed as the next step to the imported European heroic modernism) today seems to be discussed by almost anyone. Now, what about the intervening years? What happens between the end of the World War II and the sixties? The potential lack of a clear dominant position of this stage may have plunged it into oblivion or oversight by historians and critics. Thus, this research is structured around the role that occupies Venturi’s work, whereas this is not its only subject. Rather taken as an excuse, the thesis deepens deductively in the set of circumstances that could lead its author to the conclusions he developed in 1966, detecting biographical and academic environments, shared thoughts and epistemological and mutual professional influences, that would justify a new interpretation of this book as a necessary corollary of an outlook of crisis and change (this major and center subject in this dissertation), contrary to what has been commonly understood upon this work. The research focuses predominantly on tracing the sources cited by Venturi himself in his book, as well as other texts of wider dissemination and outreach (usually professional journals not exclusively academic, as well as books, catalogs of exhibitions, symposia proceedings...), and not so much in the buildings or unbuilt projects; but also, perhaps, it is focused in the terms in which these works were published, commented or reviewed. Hence an approach conceived sub specie bibliotecae has been adopted, with working methods characterized by their chronological component, and then the analytical-comparative one: in other words, a historiographicaljournalistic method able to relate stories or courses of certain ideas or notions, within a broader general context in its architectural, aesthetic, sociological-generational, cultural, philosophical, scientific, political, literary... sides. This approach intends to establish a re-reading of Venturi’s first book and its years of gestation, from some new understandings, more modern than postmodern(ist), proposing a possible evolution of the latest architecture whose roots, after all, would have their origin in the North America of 1946-1966.

On the Edge of the World: Trauma and Twinship Selfobject Needs in Mrs. Dalloway

Alienation and aloneness appear as common themes in the experience of those impacted by trauma. Self psychology theorists, including contemporary proponents of intersubjectivity theory, have also discussed the ways in which alienation and disconnection from others permeate the experience of post-traumatic stress disorder. This discussion has highlighted the importance and centrality of twinship selfobject needs in providing a relational home for the emotional pain associated with trauma. These phenomena are especially apparent when one encounters the experiences of those combat veterans who have attempted to readjust to society upon returning home from military service. Using self psychology and intersubjectivity theory, this paper explores the ways that fiction, specifically Virginia Woolf's Mrs. Dalloway, can illuminate the ways that trauma negatively impacts twinship selfobject needs in combat veterans. In examining the character of Septimus Smith, this paper illustrates the estrangement, singularity, and alienation associated with post-traumatic stress, and how this state of being can collude with societal misunderstanding and repression to shatter the self's sense of belongingness with and connection to others.

Migration and War Memory in a European Perspective A Case-Study on Displaced Persons in Belgium. Natolin Research Paper 05/2011

In the aftermath of World War II, about 20,000 people who had experienced displacement entered Belgium.1 Among those there were about 350 soldiers serving in the Polish armed forces in the West, and about 4,000 ostarbeiterinnen - young female Soviet citizens who were deported to Nazi Germany to do forced labour. All the soldiers and Soviet women married Belgian citizens, and most settled in the home town or city of their spouses. This paper focuses on the war memories of these migrants in post-war life, memories that were arguably shaped not only by the characteristics of their war experiences themselves, but also by the changing positions which they held within their home and host societies. Following the migrants from their moment of settlement until today, the article highlights the changing dynamics of their war memories over time, starting during the Cold War era and ending up in present day Europe. As such, the study finds itself on the crossroads of memory and migration studies, two academic disciplines that only recently started to dialogue with each other.2 Before analysing the arrival, settlement and war memories of the Displaced Persons at study, I give an interpretation of academic literature on memory of World War II from the perspective of migration studies.

The peak of the load; the waiting months on the hilltop from the entrance of the Stars and Stripes to the second victory of the Marne.

Mode of access: Internet.

Pearl Harbor attack. Hearings before the Joint Committee on the Investigation of the Pearl Harbor Attack, Congress of the United States, Seventy-ninth Congress, first [-second] session, pursuant to S. Con. Res. 27 ..

Hearings held Nov. 15, 1945-May 31, 1946.

Bibliographies of the world at war: no.I-X.

̲̲ ̲̲̲̲S̲upplement ... no.1- Apr./Dec., 1942- Washington, D. C., 1943- v. 27 cm.

Source records of the great war : a comprehensive and readable source record of the world's great war, emphasizing the more important events, and presenting these as complete narratives in the actual words of the chief officials and most eminent leaders ... presenting documents from government archives and other authoritative sources, with outline narratives, indices, chronologies, and courses of reading on sociological movements and individual national activities /

"The war with Germany, a statistical summary by Leonard P. Ayres ... chief of the Statistics branch of the General staff": v. 7, 153 p. at end.