A Gradient-Type Method For Real-Time State Estimation Of Water Distribution Networks

Drinking water distribution networks risk exposure to malicious or accidental contamination. Several levels of responses are conceivable. One of them consists to install a sensor network to monitor the system on real time. Once a contamination has been detected, this is also important to take appropriate counter-measures. In the SMaRT-OnlineWDN project, this relies on modeling to predict both hydraulics and water quality. An online model use makes identification of the contaminant source and simulation of the contaminated area possible. The objective of this paper is to present SMaRT-OnlineWDN experience and research results for hydraulic state estimation with sampling frequency of few minutes. A least squares problem with bound constraints is formulated to adjust demand class coefficient to best fit the observed values at a given time. The criterion is a Huber function to limit the influence of outliers. A Tikhonov regularization is introduced for consideration of prior information on the parameter vector. Then the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is applied that use derivative information for limiting the number of iterations. Confidence intervals for the state prediction are also given. The results are presented and discussed on real networks in France and Germany.

Fatores associados ao controle metabólico em pacientes com diabetes melito tipo 2 não usuários de insulina

Introdução: a obtenção de um bom controle metabólico é essencial para a prevenção das complicações crônicas do Diabetes Melito (DM). O tratamento é complexo e depende da implementação efetiva das diferentes estratégias terapêuticas disponíveis. Para que isso seja possível, é necessário que o paciente entenda os princípios terapêuticos e consiga executá-los. A precária educação em diabetes é percebida como um dos obstáculos para o alcance das metas terapêuticas. Objetivo: analisar, os fatores associados ao controle metabólico, em pacientes com DM tipo 2 (DM2) não usuários de insulina. Métodos: foi realizado um estudo transversal em pacientes com DM2 não usuários de insulina, selecionados ao acaso entre aqueles que consultavam nos ambulatórios de Medicina Interna, Endocrinologia e Enfermagem do Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre. Os pacientes foram submetidos à avaliação clínica, laboratorial e responderam um questionário que incluía o tipo de tratamento realizado para DM, outros medicamentos e co-morbidades, pesquisa de complicações em ano prévio e avaliação do conhecimento sobre DM. Os pacientes foram classificados em dois grupos, com bom ou mau controle glicêmico, de acordo com o valor da glico-hemoglobina de 1 ponto % acima do limite superior do método utilizado. As comparações entre variáveis contínuas, com distribuição normal, foram analisadas pelo teste t de Student para amostras não-pareadas e para as variáveis de distribuição assimétrica ou com variância heterogênea o teste U de Mann-Whitney. A comparação entre percentagem foi feita pelo teste de qui-quadrado ou exato de Fisher. Foi realizada uma análise logística múltipla para identificar os fatores mais relevantes associados ao controle metabólico (variável dependente). As variáveis independentes com um nível de significância de P < 0,1 na análise bivariada, foram incluídas no modelo. Resultados: foram avaliados 143 pacientes com DM2, idade de 59,3 ± 10,1 anos, duração conhecida do DM 7,5 ± 6,3 anos, índice de massa corporal (IMC) de 29,7 ± 5,2 kg/m².Destes, 94 pacientes (65,73%) apresentavam bom controle glicêmico. Os pacientes com mau controle glicêmico usavam mais anti-hiperglicemiantes orais como monoterapia (OR = 9,37; IC = 2,60-33,81; P=0,004) ou associados (OR = 31,08; IC = 7,42-130,15; P < 0,001). Da mesma maneira, não fizeram dieta em dias de festa (OR = 3,29; IC = 1,51-7,16; P = 0,012). A inclusão do conhecimento sobre diabetes não foi diferente entre os pacientes com bom ou mau controle glicêmico (OR = 1,08; IC = 0,97 - 1,21; P = 0,219). A análise multivariada demonstrou que a consulta com a enfermeira educadora (OR = 0,24; IC = 0,108-0,534; P = 0,003), com o endocrinologista (OR = 0,15 ; IC = 0,063-0,373; P = 0,001) e o uso de hipolipemiantes (OR = 0,10; IC = 0,016 - 0,72; P = 0,054) foram associados ao bom controle glicêmico, ajustados para a não realização de dieta em festas, uso de anti-hiperglicemiantes orais e conhecimento sobre diabetes. Conclusão: o controle metabólico em pacientes DM2 é influenciado pelas atividades de educação com enfermeira e endocrinologista. O tratamento do DM2 deve incluir atividades de educação de forma sistemática.

Bounds on functionals of the distribution treatment effects

Bounds on the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with known marginal distributions obtained by Makarov (1981) can be used to bound the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) of individual treatment effects. Identification of the distribution of individual treatment effects is important for policy purposes if we are interested in functionals of that distribution, such as the proportion of individuals who gain from the treatment and the expected gain from the treatment for these individuals. Makarov bounds on the c.d.f. of the individual treatment effect distribution are pointwise sharp, i.e. they cannot be improved in any single point of the distribution. We show that the Makarov bounds are not uniformly sharp. Specifically, we show that the Makarov bounds on the region that contains the c.d.f. of the treatment effect distribution in two (or more) points can be improved, and we derive the smallest set for the c.d.f. of the treatment effect distribution in two (or more) points. An implication is that the Makarov bounds on a functional of the c.d.f. of the individual treatment effect distribution are not best possible.

Volatility Triggered Range Forward (VTRF): an instrument for protection against volatility fluctuations in the BRL/USD pair

Este trabalho propõe um instrumento capaz de absorver choques no par BRL/USD, garantindo ao seu detentor a possibilidade de realizar a conversão entre essas moedas a uma taxa observada recentemente. O Volatility Triggered Range Forward assemelha-se a um instrumento forward comum, cujo preço de entrega não é conhecido inicialmente, mas definido no momento em que um nível de volatilidade pré-determinado for atingido na cotação das moedas ao longo da vida do instrumento. Seu cronograma de ajustes pode ser definido para um número qualquer de períodos. Seu apreçamento e controle de riscos é baseado em uma árvore trinomial ponderada entre dois possíveis regimes de volatilidade. Esses regimes são determinados após um estudo na série BRL/USD no período entre 2003 e 2009, basedo em um modelo Switching Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (SWARCH).

A Framework supporting collaboration on the distributed design of integrated systems

The work described in this thesis aims to support the distributed design of integrated systems and considers specifically the need for collaborative interaction among designers. Particular emphasis was given to issues which were only marginally considered in previous approaches, such as the abstraction of the distribution of design automation resources over the network, the possibility of both synchronous and asynchronous interaction among designers and the support for extensible design data models. Such issues demand a rather complex software infrastructure, as possible solutions must encompass a wide range of software modules: from user interfaces to middleware to databases. To build such structure, several engineering techniques were employed and some original solutions were devised. The core of the proposed solution is based in the joint application of two homonymic technologies: CAD Frameworks and object-oriented frameworks. The former concept was coined in the late 80's within the electronic design automation community and comprehends a layered software environment which aims to support CAD tool developers, CAD administrators/integrators and designers. The latter, developed during the last decade by the software engineering community, is a software architecture model to build extensible and reusable object-oriented software subsystems. In this work, we proposed to create an object-oriented framework which includes extensible sets of design data primitives and design tool building blocks. Such object-oriented framework is included within a CAD Framework, where it plays important roles on typical CAD Framework services such as design data representation and management, versioning, user interfaces, design management and tool integration. The implemented CAD Framework - named Cave2 - followed the classical layered architecture presented by Barnes, Harrison, Newton and Spickelmier, but the possibilities granted by the use of the object-oriented framework foundations allowed a series of improvements which were not available in previous approaches: - object-oriented frameworks are extensible by design, thus this should be also true regarding the implemented sets of design data primitives and design tool building blocks. This means that both the design representation model and the software modules dealing with it can be upgraded or adapted to a particular design methodology, and that such extensions and adaptations will still inherit the architectural and functional aspects implemented in the object-oriented framework foundation; - the design semantics and the design visualization are both part of the object-oriented framework, but in clearly separated models. This allows for different visualization strategies for a given design data set, which gives collaborating parties the flexibility to choose individual visualization settings; - the control of the consistency between semantics and visualization - a particularly important issue in a design environment with multiple views of a single design - is also included in the foundations of the object-oriented framework. Such mechanism is generic enough to be also used by further extensions of the design data model, as it is based on the inversion of control between view and semantics. The view receives the user input and propagates such event to the semantic model, which evaluates if a state change is possible. If positive, it triggers the change of state of both semantics and view. Our approach took advantage of such inversion of control and included an layer between semantics and view to take into account the possibility of multi-view consistency; - to optimize the consistency control mechanism between views and semantics, we propose an event-based approach that captures each discrete interaction of a designer with his/her respective design views. The information about each interaction is encapsulated inside an event object, which may be propagated to the design semantics - and thus to other possible views - according to the consistency policy which is being used. Furthermore, the use of event pools allows for a late synchronization between view and semantics in case of unavailability of a network connection between them; - the use of proxy objects raised significantly the abstraction of the integration of design automation resources, as either remote or local tools and services are accessed through method calls in a local object. The connection to remote tools and services using a look-up protocol also abstracted completely the network location of such resources, allowing for resource addition and removal during runtime; - the implemented CAD Framework is completely based on Java technology, so it relies on the Java Virtual Machine as the layer which grants the independence between the CAD Framework and the operating system. All such improvements contributed to a higher abstraction on the distribution of design automation resources and also introduced a new paradigm for the remote interaction between designers. The resulting CAD Framework is able to support fine-grained collaboration based on events, so every single design update performed by a designer can be propagated to the rest of the design team regardless of their location in the distributed environment. This can increase the group awareness and allow a richer transfer of experiences among them, improving significantly the collaboration potential when compared to previously proposed file-based or record-based approaches. Three different case studies were conducted to validate the proposed approach, each one focusing one a subset of the contributions of this thesis. The first one uses the proxy-based resource distribution architecture to implement a prototyping platform using reconfigurable hardware modules. The second one extends the foundations of the implemented object-oriented framework to support interface-based design. Such extensions - design representation primitives and tool blocks - are used to implement a design entry tool named IBlaDe, which allows the collaborative creation of functional and structural models of integrated systems. The third case study regards the possibility of integration of multimedia metadata to the design data model. Such possibility is explored in the frame of an online educational and training platform.

Changes in test scores distribution for students of the fourth grade in Brazil: a relative distribution analysis for the years 1997 to 2005

To assess the quality of school education, much of educational research is concerned with comparisons of test scores means or medians. In this paper, we shift this focus and explore test scores data by addressing some often neglected questions. In the case of Brazil, the mean of test scores in Math for students of the fourth grade has declined approximately 0,2 standard deviation in the late 1990s. But what about changes in the distribution of scores? It is unclear whether the decline was caused by deterioration in student performance in upper and/or lower tails of the distribution. To answer this question, we propose the use of the relative distribution method developed by Handcock and Morris (1999). The advantage of this methodology is that it compares two distributions of test scores data through a single distribution and synthesizes all the differences between them. Moreover, it is possible to decompose the total difference between two distributions in a level effect (changes in median) and shape effect (changes in shape of the distribution). We find that the decline of average-test scores is mainly caused by a worsening in the position of all students throughout the distribution of scores and is not only specific to any quantile of distribution.

Estratégias internacionais de organizações híbridas: estudo de caso da Petrobras no âmbito da distribuição

Esta pesquisa investigou estratégias internacionais no âmbito da distribuição da Petrobras. A investigação deu especial atenção a processos e contextos de não-mercado do âmbito de estratégias internacionais desta organização híbrida no setor de distribuição de derivados de petróleo por meio de uma perspectiva crítica que promove a aproximação da literatura de gestão ao contexto das economias emergentes e de debates acerca do capitalismo contemporâneo. Utilizou-se a metodologia de estudo de caso para explorar a experiência da Petrobras no seu estabelecimento no mercado paraguaio, com início no ano de 2006. A pesquisa mostrou que a Petrobras vive uma constante tensão entre seu lado técnico e seu contraponto político. Constatou-se que se trata de uma dimensão central no âmbito das estratégias internacionais da organização. A pesquisa mostrou que falta, em alguns momentos, uma orientação mais clara do governo para a Petrobras no que diz respeito ao desenvolvimento de ações e estratégias que privilegiem aspectos políticos, geopolíticos, sociais e de desenvolvimento econômico nacional e regional. Corroborou-se a central importância do lado econômico ou de mercado para o lado do não-mercado em contextos que se afastam dos pressupostos do capitalismo gerencial e se aproximam de diferentes versões de capitalismo de estado em escala global. O estudo de caso revelou que o segmento de distribuição, apesar de ser visto como de menor importância pela literatura de gestão, tem sido de central importância no novo framework de estratégia internacional da Petrobras para viabilizar objetivos de legitimação e de territorialização da empresa na América Latina. O sucesso da dimensão econômica da Petrobras no Paraguai, assim como a dimensão de (geo)política, evidencia que é possível a coexistência equilibrada de aspectos estado-mercado-empresa-(geo)política. A pesquisa mostrou que é viável atender às expectativas dos shareholders, mantendo benéfico relacionamento com uma extensa gama de stakeholders. No aspecto geopolítico, o estudo de caso caracterizou que a presença e a gestão local da Petrobras estão alinhadas aos objetivos da política exterior do Brasil para o Paraguai. A manutenção de um ambiente saudável nas fronteiras brasileiras continua sendo um objetivo importante para o Brasil e a atuação da Petrobras no Paraguai tem colaborado para isso, fomentando o desenvolvimento ampliado do país guarani.

The distribution of average and marginal effective tax rates in European Union member states

Macro-based summary indicators of effective tax burdens do not capture differences in effective tax rates facing different sub-groups of the population. They also cannot provide information on the level or distribution of the marginal effective tax rates thought to influence household behaviour. I use EUROMOD, an EU-wide tax-benefit microsimulation model, to compute distributions of average and marginal effective tax rates across the household population in fourteen European Union Member States. Using different definitions of ‘net taxes’, the tax base and the unit of analysis I present a range of measures showing the contribution of the tax-benefit system to household incomes, the average effective tax rates applicable to income from labour and marginal effective tax rates faced by working men and women. In a second step, effective tax rates are broken down to separately show the influence of each type of tax-benefit instrument. The results show that measures of effective tax rates vary considerably depending on incomes, labour market situations and family circumstances. Using single averages or macro-based indicators will therefore provide an inappropriate picture of tax burdens faced by large parts of the population.

Bayesian analysis of extreme events with threshold estimation

The aim of this paper is to analyze extremal events using Generalized Pareto Distributions (GPD), considering explicitly the uncertainty about the threshold. Current practice empirically determines this quantity and proceeds by estimating the GPD parameters based on data beyond it, discarding all the information available be10w the threshold. We introduce a mixture model that combines a parametric form for the center and a GPD for the tail of the distributions and uses all observations for inference about the unknown parameters from both distributions, the threshold inc1uded. Prior distribution for the parameters are indirectly obtained through experts quantiles elicitation. Posterior inference is available through Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Simulations are carried out in order to analyze the performance of our proposed mode1 under a wide range of scenarios. Those scenarios approximate realistic situations found in the literature. We also apply the proposed model to a real dataset, Nasdaq 100, an index of the financiai market that presents many extreme events. Important issues such as predictive analysis and model selection are considered along with possible modeling extensions.

Ecologia do fitoplâncton impactado por cultivo de tilápia do Nilo, oreochromis niloticus, em tanques-rede no açude Ministro João Alves, Parelhas, Rio Grande do Norte

The dams are limnic ecosystems of great importance for its multiple uses, among them, water supply for the public and to culture of artisanal fish are most relevant. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the physical-chemical characteristics and the phytoplankton community in two chosen sites (Point 1 littoral zone of point source; Point 2 pelagic zone of non-point source) of the Minister João Alves dam, which is also known as Boqueirão de Parelhas/RN. This represents the spatial distribution of the phytoplankton species in order to understand any possible alterations of the water quality and the phytoplankton composition in relation to the water quality originating from the impact of the tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus, culture. The study period also encompasses temporal variations exhibited in two seasons of an annual cycle, one during the dry season (Oct, Nov and Dec of 2008 and Jan of 2009), and the other rainy season (Mar, Apr, May and June of 2008) to extend the observation. The physicalchemical parameters, such as pH, temperature, electrical conductivity, concentration of dissolved oxygen were measured in situ and the values of the inorganic nutrients (nitrate, ammonium and orto-phosfato) and chlorophyll in the laboratory. The quali-quantitative analyses of the phytoplankton had been carried through sedimentation technique and the enumeration of the random of 400 cells, colonies and filaments counted using Sedgwick-Rafter counting chamber. The results of pH varied widely from the acidic to alkaline range with the minimum of 5.8 (± 0.8) and the maximum of 9.2 (± 0.7-0.8), at point 1 and 2. The dissolved oxygen content was higher in the rainy period than that in the dry period. The maximum electrical conductivity was of 1409 μScm-1 in point 1 and 431 minim of μScm-1, in point 2. There was a considerable alteration in the levels of inorganic nutrients such as nitrate-nitrogen, ammoniacal nitrogen and orthophosphate during the two cycles of study period. Phytoplankton assemblages presented a picture of alternate dominance among species Cyanobacteria, Bacillariophyceae and Chlorophyceae. The trophic state index diagnosed to the category of mesotrophic, which is based on the values of chlorophyll, total phosphorus and Secchi-disc measurements. The wind driven turbulence of the water column and the fresh inflow of water (flushing and dilution) during rainy season acted as constraint and did-not allow an exaggerated growth of the species of cyanobacteria. On the basis of the present we conclude that the culture of tilapias in cage-culture fails to produce pollution load that could compromise the quality of the water of the dam, probably be due to small dimension of the culture in relation to the size, volume of the water and the reservoir capacity support its own environment

Coptotermes gestroi (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae) in Brazil: possible origins inferred by mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase II gene sequences

The Asian subterranean termite, Coptotermes gestroi, originally from northeast India through Burma, Thailand, Malaysia, and the Indonesian archipelago, is a major termite pest introduced in several countries around the world, including Brazil. We sequenced the mitochondrial COII gene from individuals representing 23 populations. Phylogenetic analysis of COII gene sequences from this and other studies resulted in two main groups: (1) populations of Cleveland (USA) and four populations of Malaysia and (2) populations of Brazil, four populations of Malaysia, and one population from each of Thailand, Puerto Rico, and Key West (USA). Three new localities are reported here, considerably enlarging the distribution of C. gestroi in Brazil: Campo Grande (state of Mato Grosso do Sul), Itajai (state of Santa Catarina), and Porto Alegre (state of Rio Grande do Sul).

Formação de particulas submicrometricas de pmma por cristalização termica de solução polimérica

Polymer particles in the nanometer range are of fundamental interest today, especially when used as carrier systems in the controlled release of drugs, cosmetics and nutraceuticals, as well as in coating materials with magnetic properties. The main objective of the present study concerns the production of submicron particles of poly (methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) by crystallization of a polymer solution by thermally controlled cooling. In this work, PMMA solutions in ethanol and 1-propanol were prepared at different concentrations (1% to 5% by weight) and crystallized at different cooling rates (0.2 to 0.8 ° C / min) controlled linearly. Analysis of particle size distribution (DLS / CILAS) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) were performed in order to evaluate the morphological characteristics of the produced particles. The results demonstrated that it is possible to obtain submicron polymer perfectly spherical particles using the technique discussed in this study. It was also observed that, depending on the cooling rate and the concentration of the polymer solution, it is possible to achieve high yield in the formation of submicron particles. In addition, preliminary tests were performed in order to verify the ability of this technique to form particulated carrier material with magnetic properties. The results showed that the developed technique can be an interesting alternative to obtain polymer particles with magnetic properties

Effects of environrnental conditions on the radon daughters spatial distribution

The influence of environmental conditions on the indoor radon daughters spatial distribution is studied both theoretically and experimentally. Simple theoretical calculations indicate that ventilation and variation in the size distribution of aerosols should play an important role influencing the spatial distribution of indoor radon decay products, but experimental results indicate that these environmental factors have little influence on the spatial distribution of radon daughters near the walls of indoor environments. We have observed that the maximum effective range of the plate-out effect varies only between I and 3 cm in typical dwellings. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Self-assembling of phenothiazine compounds investigated by small-angle X-ray scattering and electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) have been carried out to investigate the structure of the self-aggregates of two phenothiazine drugs, chlorpromazine (CPZ) and trifluoperazine (TFP), in aqueous solution. In the SAXS studies, drug solutions of 20 and 60 mM, at pH 4.0 and 7.0, were investigated and the best data fittings were achieved assuming several different particle form factors with a homogeneous electron density distribution in respect to the water environment. Because of the limitation of scattering intensity in the q range above 0.15 angstrom(-1), precise determination of the aggregate shape was not possible and all of the tested models for ellipsoids, cylinders, or parallelepipeds fitted the experimental data equally well. The SAXS data allows inferring, however, that CPZ molecules might self-assemble in a basis set of an orthorhombic cell, remaining as nanocrystallites in solution. Such nanocrystals are composed of a small number of unit cells (up to 10, in c-direction), with CPZ aggregation numbers of 60-80. EPR spectra of 5- and 16-doxyl stearic acids bound to the aggregates were analyzed through simulation, and the dynamic and magnetic parameters were obtained. The phenothiazine concentration in EPR experiments was in the range of 5-60 mM. Critical aggregation concentration of TFP is lower than that for CPZ, consistent with a higher hydrophobicity of TFP. At acidic pH 4.0 a significant residual motion of the nitroxide relative to the aggregate is observed, and the EPR spectra and corresponding parameters are similar to those reported for aqueous surfactant micelles. However, at pH 6.5 a significant motional restriction is observed, and the nitroxide rotational correlation times correlate very well with those estimated for the whole aggregated particle from SAXS data. This implies that the aggregate is densely packed at this pH and that the nitroxide is tightly bound to it producing a strongly immobilized EPR spectrum. Besides that, at pH 6.5 the differences in motional restriction observed between 5- and 16-DSA are small, which is different from that observed for aqueous surfactant micelles.

Caracterização do repertório acústico do botocinza, sotalia guianensis, e impacto de embarcações no nordeste do brasil

The wide distribution along the Brazilian coast of specie Sotalia guianensis has been growing interest in searchers on the ecology of this species, addition to commercial interests by whalewatching. This work described the accoustic repertory of S. guianensis and their behavior associated and found if underwater noises affect this repertorie in Pipa-RN. It were analyzed 18:49h of recordings maked between april and june/2009. It were found 3258 whistles, 289 calls, 873 clicks and no gargle. The frequencies range of guiana dolphins was 1 a 48kHz and may be related to system response recorder and population s regionalization. The frequencies overlaps the noise made by motorboats, schooners and water bomb. The behavior travelling ocurred siletly in 72,58% and socialization presented no sound (56,4%) and presence of sound (43,6%). This great absence of sound may be relacioned to saving energy, probably because in this behaviors they can use physical and visual contacts. The foraging presented highest records of all class noise with 46,84% clicks, 33,84% whistles and 9,02% calls. All this sounds occurred differently in each behavior (travelling: x2 = 134,35 df = 3 p = 0,0001; foraging: x2 = 19,83 df = 3 p= 0,00018 and socialization x2 = 60,35 df = 3 p = 0,0001). It was possible to determine that underwater noise cause changes in the repertorie and does a considerable increase in whistle s number and reduce clicks. Also occurs changes in some whistles (FI: t=2,42, p=0,015; FF: t= -2,22, p=0,025), calls (FMI: t= -3,13, p=0,001; FMA: t= -3,49, p=0,0005; FD: t= -2,21, p=0,027; D: t=2,89, p=0,004) and clicks parameters (D: t= -3,85, p=0,0001; I: t= -5,32, p=0,0001) during presence of noise. These changes may be a strategy of these animals to win this sound barrier. We can not say which noise has more impact, ix however the water bomb seems to affect more the clicks and the motorboats seems to affect the others sounds. Little is know about auditive sensibility of this specie, but daily exposure to this noise may cause damage and this specie appears to have residence. The specie conservation is necessary because the population already seems to suffer damage as decrease in length of stay, number of individuals entering the inlet and the apparent diminution in the foragind during vessels presence and control standards and ambiental education can help. So, we can advance in knowledge about the ecology of this specie especially when it come to bioacoustics and their behaviors associated and reveals some of the impacts that the noise have brought to this population