A method for setting the size of plant conservation target areas

Realistic time frames in which management decisions are made often preclude the completion of the detailed analyses necessary for conservation planning. Under these circumstances, efficient alternatives may assist in approximating the results of more thorough studies that require extensive resources and time. We outline a set of concepts and formulas that may be used in lieu of detailed population viability analyses and habitat modeling exercises to estimate the protected areas required to provide desirable conservation outcomes for a suite of threatened plant species. We used expert judgment of parameters and assessment of a population size that results in a specified quasiextinction risk based on simple dynamic models The area required to support a population of this size is adjusted to take into account deterministic and stochastic human influences, including small-scale disturbance deterministic trends such as habitat loss, and changes in population density through processes such as predation and competition. We set targets for different disturbance regimes and geographic regions. We applied our methods to Banksia cuneata, Boronia keysii, and Parsonsia dorrigoensis, resulting in target areas for conservation of 1102, 733, and 1084 ha, respectively. These results provide guidance on target areas and priorities for conservation strategies.

Small area population disease burden

Small area health statistics has assumed increasing importance as the focus of population and public health moves to a more individualised approach of smaller area populations. Small populations and low event occurrence produce difficulties in interpretation and require appropriate statistical methods, including for age adjustment. There are also statistical questions related to multiple comparisons. Privacy and confidentiality issues include the possibility of revealing information on individuals or health care providers by fine cross-tabulations. Interpretation of small area population differences in health status requires consideration of migrant and Indigenous composition, socio-economic status and rural-urban geography before assessment of the effects of physical environmental exposure and services and interventions. Burden of disease studies produce a single measure for morbidity and mortality - disability adjusted life year (DALY) - which is the sum of the years of life lost (YLL) from premature mortality and the years lived with disability (YLD) for particular diseases (or all conditions). Calculation of YLD requires estimates of disease incidence (and complications) and duration, and weighting by severity. These procedures often mean problematic assumptions, as does future discounting and age weighting of both YLL and YLD. Evaluation of the Victorian small area population disease burden study presents important cross-disciplinary challenges as it relies heavily on synthetic approaches of demography and economics rather than on the empirical methods of epidemiology. Both empirical and synthetic methods are used to compute small area mortality and morbidity, disease burden, and then attribution to risk factors. Readers need to examine the methodology and assumptions carefully before accepting the results.

Detecting insomnia: comparison of four self-report measures of sleep in a young adult population

The sensitivity and specificity of four self-report measures of disordered sleep - the Sleep Impairment Index (SII), the Sleep Disorders Questionnaire (SDQ), the Dysfunctional Beliefs and Attitudes About Sleep Scale (DBAS) and the Sleep-Wake Activity Inventory (SWAI) - were compared in subjects with insomnia and normal sleep. Nineteen young adult subjects met DSM-IV criteria for primary insomnia and another 19 were normal control subjects. Discriminatory characteristics of each measure were assessed using receiver operator characteristic curve analyses. Discriminatory power was maximised for each measure to produce cut-scores applicable for identification of individuals with insomnia. The DBAS, SII and SDQ psychiatric DIMS subscale were found to correlate, and discriminated well between the two groups. The SWAI nocturnal sleep subscale was not found to be an accurate discriminator. The results suggest differences in the measures in their ability to detect insomnia, and offer guidelines as to the optimal use of test scores to identify young adults suspected of insomnia.

The relationship between cannabis use and other substance use in the general population

This study examined if (1) there is an association in the general population between cannabis use, DSM-IV abuse and dependence, and other substance use and DSM-IV substance abuse/dependence; (2) if so, is it explained by demographic characteristics or levels of neuroticism? It used data from the Australian National Survey of Mental Health and Well-Being (NSMHWB), a stratified, multistage probability sample of 10641 adults, representative of the general population. DSM-IV diagnoses of substance abuse and dependence were derived using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). There was a strong bivariate association between involvement with cannabis use in the past 12 months and other substance use, abuse and dependence. In particular, cannabis abuse and dependence were highly associated with increased risks of other substance dependence. These associations remained after including other variables in multiple regression. Cannabis use without disorder was strongly related to other drug use, an association that was not explained by other variables considered here. The high likelihood of other substance use and substance use disorders needs to be considered among persons seeking treatment for cannabis use problems. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cervical screening: population-based comparisons between self-reported survey and registry-derived Pap test rates

Objective: To compare self-reported cervical screening rates, as recorded in the 1998 NSW Health Survey, with registry-based cervical screening rates for NSW for the same period; and to examine factors associated with over-estimates of cervical screening rates by self-report. Methods: Self-reported cervical screening data was extracted from the 1998 NSW Health Survey, biennial screening rates estimated and compared with biennial cervical screening rates for 1997-98, as recorded on the NSW Pap Test Register (PTR). Rates and differences were related to socio-demographic characteristics of the 17 Area Health Services of NSW. Results: According to the 1998 NSW Health Survey, 74% of women reported having a Pap test during the previous two years. The equivalent rate recorded on the NSW PTR for 1997-98 was 62% (p

Decreased perinatal sunshine duration is associated with increased non-affective but not affective psychosis birth rates

We have previously found an association between variations in schizophrenia birth rates and varyinglevels of perinatal sunshine duration. This study examines whether such an association can also be found for Ža. affective psychosis, and Žb. broadly defined nonaffective psychoses. Data for individuals born between 1931 and 1970 in Australia with ICD9 Other PsychosisŽ295–299.were obtained from the Queensland Mental Health Statistical System. ‘Affective psychosis’ included affective psychosis, schizo-affective psychosis, and depressive and excitative non-organic psychoses. ‘Non-affective psychosis’ included chizophrenia, paranoid disorders and other non-organic psychoses. Those receiving both affective and non-affective psychotic diagnoses were excluded. Rates per 10,000 live monthly general population births were calculated. For each month, we assessed the agreementŽusing the kappa statistic. between trends in Ža. birth rates and Žb. long-term trends in seasonally adjusted perinatal sunshine duration. The analyses were performed separately for males and females. There were 6265 with non-affective psychosis ŽMs3964 rate 66r10,000; Fs2299 44r10,000. and 2858 with affective psychosisŽMs1392 24r10,000; Fs1466 28r10,000.. There were no significant associations between Ža. affective psychosis birth rates for either males or females and Žb. sunshine duration. There was a significant association between nonaffective psychosis birth rates for males only and Žb. sunshine duration Žkappas0.15 p-0.001.. This suggests that, as a risk factor, the effect of reduced perinatal sunshine is specifically associated with males who develop non-affective psychosis. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

The Las Campanas/AAT Rich Cluster Survey - II. The environmental dependence of galaxy colours in clusters at z similar to 0.1

We present a photometric investigation of the variation in galaxy colour with environment in 11 X-ray-luminous clusters at 0.07 less than or equal to z less than or equal to 0.16 taken from the Las Campanas/AAT Rich Cluster Survey. We study the properties of the galaxy populations in individual clusters, and take advantage of the homogeneity of the sample to combine the clusters together to investigate weaker trends in the composite sample. We find that modal colours of galaxies lying on the colour-magnitude relation in the clusters become bluer by d(B - R)/dr(p) = -0.022 +/- 0.004 from the cluster core out to a projected radius of r(p) = 6 Mpc, further out in radius than any previous study. We also examine the variation in modal galaxy colour with local galaxy density, 2, for galaxies lying close to the colour-magnitude relation, and find that the median colour shifts bluewards by d(B - R)/d log(10)(Sigma) = -0.076 +/- 0.009 with decreasing local density across three orders of magnitude. We show that the position of the red envelope of galaxies in the colour-magnitude relation does not vary as a function of projected radius or density within the clusters, suggesting that the change in the modal colour results from an increasing fraction of bluer galaxies within the colour-magnitude relation, rather than a change in the colours of the whole population. We show that this shift in the colour-magnitude relations with projected radius and local density is greater than that expected from the changing morphological mix based on the local morphology-density relation. We therefore conclude that we are seeing a real change in the properties of galaxies on the colour-magnitude relation in the outskirts of clusters. The simplest interpretation of this result (and similar constraints in local clusters) is that an increasing fraction of galaxies in the lower density regions at large radii within clusters exhibit signatures of star formation in the recent past, signatures which are not seen in the evolved galaxies in the highest density regions.

Mortality and recurrent cardiac events after coronary artery bypass graft: long term outcomes in a population study

Objective: To determine 30 day mortality, long term survival, and recurrent cardiac events after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) in a population. Design: Follow up study of patients prospectively entered on to a cardiothoracic surgical database. Record linkages were used to obtain data on readmissions and deaths. Patients: 8910 patients undergoing isolated first CABG between 1980 and 1993 in Western Australia. Main outcome measures: 30 day and long term survival, readmission for cardiac event (acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty or reoperative CABG). Results: There were 3072 deaths to mid 1999. 30 day and long term survival were significantly better in patients treated in the first five years than during the following decade. The age of the patients, proportion of female patients, and number of grafts increased over time. An urgent procedure (odds ratio 3.3), older age (9% per year) and female sex (odds ratio 1.5) were associated with increased risk for 30 day mortality, while age (7% per year) and a recent myocardial infarction (odds ratio 1.16) influenced long term survival. Internal mammary artery grafts were followed by better short and long term survival, though there was an obvious selection bias in favour of younger male patients. Conclusions: This study shows worsening crude mortality at 30 days after CABG from the mid 1980s, associated with the inclusion of higher risk patients. Older age, an acute myocardial infarction in the year before surgery, and the use of sephenous vein grafts only were associated with poorer long term survival and greater risk of a recurrent cardiac event. Female sex predicted recurrent events but not long term survival.

Intragenomic variation in ITS2 rDNA in the louse of humans, Pediculus humanus: ITS2 is not a suitable marker for population studies in this species

The two internal transcribed spacers (ITS) of ribosomal DNA are often used as markers of populations of insects. We studied the ITS2 of the head lice and body lice of humans, to determine whether this gene is a suitable marker of populations of these insects. ITS2 sequences were amplified by PCR from lice from four different countries: Australia, China, Japan and the USA. Direct cycle-sequencing of some of these PCR products gave equivocal nucleotide chromatograms. This indicated that some lice had more than one ITS2 sequence, so we cloned PCR products from these lice. Temperature gradient gel electrophoresis (TGGE) revealed that 50 of the 67 clones we screened had different nucleotide sequences. All lice had several ITS2 types, including those with unequivocal chromatograms. A phylogenetic tree of 15 different ITS2 sequences showed that the sequences from individual lice were not monophyletic. We conclude that the ITS2 is not a useful marker of populations for Pediculus humanus.

Aspects of the biology of the yabby Trypea australiensis (Dana) (Decapoda : Thalassinidea) and the potential of burrow counts as an indirect measure of population density

The thalassinidean shrimp Trypea australiensis (the yabby) commonly occurs on intertidal sandflats and subtidal regions of sheltered embayments and estuaries along the east coast of Australia and is harvested commercially and recreationally for use as bait by anglers. The potential for counts of burrow openings to provide a reliable indirect estimate of the abundance of yabbies was examined on intertidal sandflats on North Stradbroke Island (Queensland, Australia). The relationship between the number of burrow openings and the abundance of yabbies was generally poor and also varied significantly through time, casting doubt on previous estimates of abundance for this species based on unvalidated hole counts. Spatial and temporal variation in population density, the size at maturity and the reproductive period of the yabby were also assessed. Except for an initial peak in abundance as a result of recruitment, the density of yabbies was constant throughout the study but considerably less than that estimated from a previous study in the same area. Ovigerous females were recorded at 3 mm carapace length (CL) which is smaller than previously recorded for this species and thalassinideans in general. Small ovigerous females were found throughout the study, including the summer months, which is unusual for thalassinideans in the intertidal zone. It was hypothesised that in the intertidal zone, small female yabbies may be able to balance the metabolic demands of reproduction and respiration at higher temperatures than can larger females allowing them to reproduce in the warmer months.

Patterns of co-morbidity between alcohol use and other substance use in the Australian population

The present study describes patterns of co-morbidity between alcohol use and other substance use problems in the Australian population using data from the 1997 National Survey of Mental Health and Well-Being. Multiple regression analyses examined whether the observed associations between alcohol and other drug use disorders were explained by other variables, including demographic characteristics and neuroticism. We also assessed whether the presence of co-morbid substance use disorders affected treatment seeking for a mental health problem. Alcohol use was related strongly to the use of other substances. Those who did not report alcohol use within the past 12 months were less likely to report using tobacco, cannabis, sedatives, stimulants or opiates. Higher rates again were observed among those with alcohol use disorders: half (51%) of those who were alcohol-dependent were regular tobacco smokers, one-third had used cannabis (32%); 15% reported other drug use; 15% met criteria for a cannabis use disorder and 7% met criteria for another drug use disorder. These associations were not accounted for by the demographic and other variables considered here. Co-morbid substance use disorders (sedatives, stimulants or opioids) predicted a high likelihood of seeking treatment for a mental health problem among alcohol-dependent people.