“Policy Scepticism” and the Impact of London-based Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) on the economy of England: Accounting for Alternative Uses of Public Expenditure

This paper replicates the analysis of Scottish HEIs in Hermannsson et al (2010a) for the case of London-based HEIs’ impact on the English economy in order to provide a self-contained analysis that is readily accessible by those whose primary concern is with the regional impacts of London HEIs. A “policy scepticism” has emerged that challenges the results of conventional regional HEI impact analyses. This denial of the importance of the expenditure impacts of HEIs appears to be based on a belief in either a binding regional resource constraint or a regional public sector budget constraint. In this paper we provide a systematic critique of this policy scepticism. However, while rejecting the extreme form of policy scepticism, we argue that it is crucial to recognise the importance of alternative uses of public expenditure, and show how conventional impact analyses can be augmented to accommodate this. While our results suggest that conventional impact studies overestimate the expenditure impacts of HEIs, they also demonstrate that the policy scepticism that treats these expenditure effects as irrelevant neglects some key aspects of HEIs, in particular their export intensity.

Entorns col•laboratius virtuals asíncrons basats en Web i enfocats en la gestió del coneixement = Web-based Asynchronous Collaborative Environments Focused on Knowledge Management

Report for the scientific sojourn at the University of California at Berkeley, USA, from september 2007 until july 2008. Communities of Learning Practice is an innovative paradigm focused on providing appropriate technological support to both formal and especially informal learning groups who are chiefly formed by non-technical people and who lack of the necessary resources to acquire such systems. Typically, students who are often separated by geography and/or time have the need to meet each other after classes in small study groups to carry out specific learning activities assigned during the formal learning process. However, the lack of suitable and available groupware applications makes it difficult for these groups of learners to collaborate and achieve their specific learning goals. In addition, the lack of democratic decision-making mechanisms is a main handicap to substitute the central authority of knowledge presented in formal learning.

Tackling Chronic Disease - A Policy Framework for the Management of Chronic Diseases

Tackling Chronic Disease – A Policy Framework for the Management of Chronic Diseases Chronic diseases are recognised as a major health challenge. In the healthcare system, they represent the major component of service activity and expenditure, as well as the major contributor to mortality and ill-health in this country. Given the population projections which predict a doubling of the elderly population over the next 30 years, this will give rise to a significant increase in chronic diseases with the consequent burden on society, the healthcare system and individuals. Click here to download PDF 1.8mb

Policy Diffusion: An Agent-Based Approach

Methods like Event History Analysis can show the existence of diffusion and part of its nature, but do not study the process itself. Nowadays, thanks to the increasing performance of computers, processes can be studied using computational modeling. This thesis presents an agent-based model of policy diffusion mainly inspired from the model developed by Braun and Gilardi (2006). I first start by developing a theoretical framework of policy diffusion that presents the main internal drivers of policy diffusion - such as the preference for the policy, the effectiveness of the policy, the institutional constraints, and the ideology - and its main mechanisms, namely learning, competition, emulation, and coercion. Therefore diffusion, expressed by these interdependencies, is a complex process that needs to be studied with computational agent-based modeling. In a second step, computational agent-based modeling is defined along with its most significant concepts: complexity and emergence. Using computational agent-based modeling implies the development of an algorithm and its programming. When this latter has been developed, we let the different agents interact. Consequently, a phenomenon of diffusion, derived from learning, emerges, meaning that the choice made by an agent is conditional to that made by its neighbors. As a result, learning follows an inverted S-curve, which leads to partial convergence - global divergence and local convergence - that triggers the emergence of political clusters; i.e. the creation of regions with the same policy. Furthermore, the average effectiveness in this computational world tends to follow a J-shaped curve, meaning that not only time is needed for a policy to deploy its effects, but that it also takes time for a country to find the best-suited policy. To conclude, diffusion is an emergent phenomenon from complex interactions and its outcomes as ensued from my model are in line with the theoretical expectations and the empirical evidence.Les méthodes d'analyse de biographie (event history analysis) permettent de mettre en évidence l'existence de phénomènes de diffusion et de les décrire, mais ne permettent pas d'en étudier le processus. Les simulations informatiques, grâce aux performances croissantes des ordinateurs, rendent possible l'étude des processus en tant que tels. Cette thèse, basée sur le modèle théorique développé par Braun et Gilardi (2006), présente une simulation centrée sur les agents des phénomènes de diffusion des politiques. Le point de départ de ce travail met en lumière, au niveau théorique, les principaux facteurs de changement internes à un pays : la préférence pour une politique donnée, l'efficacité de cette dernière, les contraintes institutionnelles, l'idéologie, et les principaux mécanismes de diffusion que sont l'apprentissage, la compétition, l'émulation et la coercition. La diffusion, définie par l'interdépendance des différents acteurs, est un système complexe dont l'étude est rendue possible par les simulations centrées sur les agents. Au niveau méthodologique, nous présenterons également les principaux concepts sous-jacents aux simulations, notamment la complexité et l'émergence. De plus, l'utilisation de simulations informatiques implique le développement d'un algorithme et sa programmation. Cette dernière réalisée, les agents peuvent interagir, avec comme résultat l'émergence d'un phénomène de diffusion, dérivé de l'apprentissage, où le choix d'un agent dépend en grande partie de ceux faits par ses voisins. De plus, ce phénomène suit une courbe en S caractéristique, poussant à la création de régions politiquement identiques, mais divergentes au niveau globale. Enfin, l'efficacité moyenne, dans ce monde simulé, suit une courbe en J, ce qui signifie qu'il faut du temps, non seulement pour que la politique montre ses effets, mais également pour qu'un pays introduise la politique la plus efficace. En conclusion, la diffusion est un phénomène émergent résultant d'interactions complexes dont les résultats du processus tel que développé dans ce modèle correspondent tant aux attentes théoriques qu'aux résultats pratiques.

Will climate change drive alien invasive plants into areas of high protection value? An improved model-based regional assessment to prioritise the management of invasions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) studies suggest that, without control measures, the distribution of many alien invasive plant species (AIS) will increase under climate and land-use changes. Due to limited resources and large areas colonised by invaders, management and monitoring resources must be prioritised. Choices depend on the conservation value of the invaded areas and can be guided by SDM predictions. Here, we use a hierarchical SDM framework, complemented by connectivity analysis of AIS distributions, to evaluate current and future conflicts between AIS and high conservation value areas. We illustrate the framework with three Australian wattle (Acacia) species and patterns of conservation value in Northern Portugal. Results show that protected areas will likely suffer higher pressure from all three Acacia species under future climatic conditions. Due to this higher predicted conflict in protected areas, management might be prioritised for Acacia dealbata and Acacia melanoxylon. Connectivity of AIS suitable areas inside protected areas is currently lower than across the full study area, but this would change under future environmental conditions. Coupled SDM and connectivity analysis can support resource prioritisation for anticipation and monitoring of AIS impacts. However, further tests of this framework over a wide range of regions and organisms are still required before wide application.

Policy gradient based Reinforcement Learning for real autonomous underwater cable tracking

This paper proposes a field application of a high-level reinforcement learning (RL) control system for solving the action selection problem of an autonomous robot in cable tracking task. The learning system is characterized by using a direct policy search method for learning the internal state/action mapping. Policy only algorithms may suffer from long convergence times when dealing with real robotics. In order to speed up the process, the learning phase has been carried out in a simulated environment and, in a second step, the policy has been transferred and tested successfully on a real robot. Future steps plan to continue the learning process on-line while on the real robot while performing the mentioned task. We demonstrate its feasibility with real experiments on the underwater robot ICTINEU AUV

Dynamic bandwidth management as part of an integrated network management system based on distributed agents

We present a system for dynamic network resource configuration in environments with bandwidth reservation and path restoration mechanisms. Our focus is on the dynamic bandwidth management results, although the main goal of the system is the integration of the different mechanisms that manage the reserved paths (bandwidth, restoration, and spare capacity planning). The objective is to avoid conflicts between these mechanisms. The system is able to dynamically manage a logical network such as a virtual path network in ATM or a label switch path network in MPLS. This system has been designed to be modular in the sense that in can be activated or deactivated, and it can be applied only in a sub-network. The system design and implementation is based on a multi-agent system (MAS). We also included details of its architecture and implementation

Plasmodium falciparum gametocyte carriage, sex ratios and asexual parasite rates in Nigerian children before and after a treatment protocol policy change instituting the use of artemisinin-based combination therapies

The effects of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) on transmission of Plasmodium falciparum were evaluated after a policy change instituting the use of ACTs in an endemic area. P. falciparum gametocyte carriage, sex ratios and inbreeding rates were examined in 2,585 children at presentation with acute falciparum malaria during a 10-year period from 2001-2010. Asexual parasite rates were also evaluated from 2003-2010 in 10,615 children before and after the policy change. Gametocyte carriage declined significantly from 12.4% in 2001 to 3.6% in 2010 (@@χ² for trend = 44.3, p < 0.0001), but sex ratios and inbreeding rates remained unchanged. Additionally, overall parasite rates remained unchanged before and after the policy change (47.2% vs. 45.4%), but these rates declined significantly from 2003-2010 (@@χ² for trend 35.4, p < 0.0001). Chloroquine (CQ) and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) were used as prototype drugs before and after the policy change, respectively. AL significantly shortened the duration of male gametocyte carriage in individual patients after treatment began compared with CQ (log rank statistic = 7.92, p = 0.005). ACTs reduced the rate of gametocyte carriage in children with acute falciparum infections at presentation and shortened the duration of male gametocyte carriage after treatment. However, parasite population sex ratios, inbreeding rates and overall parasite rate were unaffected.

Effectiveness of two interventions based on improving patient-practitioner communication on diabetes self-management in patients with low educational level: study protocol of a clustered randomized trial in primary care.

BACKGROUND In the last decades the presence of social inequalities in diabetes care has been observed in multiple countries, including Spain. These inequalities have been at least partially attributed to differences in diabetes self-management behaviours. Communication problems during medical consultations occur more frequently to patients with a lower educational level. The purpose of this cluster randomized trial is to determine whether an intervention implemented in a General Surgery, based in improving patient-provider communication, results in a better diabetes self-management in patients with lower educational level. A secondary objective is to assess whether telephone reinforcement enhances the effect of such intervention. We report the design and implementation of this on-going study. METHODS/DESIGN The study is being conducted in a General Practice located in a deprived neighbourhood of Granada, Spain. Diabetic patients 18 years old or older with a low educational level and inadequate glycaemic control (HbA1c > 7%) were recruited. General Practitioners (GPs) were randomised to three groups: intervention A, intervention B and control group. GPs allocated to intervention groups A and B received training in communication skills and are providing graphic feedback about glycosylated haemoglobin levels. Patients whose GPs were allocated to group B are additionally receiving telephone reinforcement whereas patients from the control group are receiving usual care. The described interventions are being conducted during 7 consecutive medical visits which are scheduled every three months. The main outcome measure will be HbA1c; blood pressure, lipidemia, body mass index and waist circumference will be considered as secondary outcome measures. Statistical analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of the interventions will include multilevel regression analysis with three hierarchical levels: medical visit level, patient level and GP level. DISCUSSION The results of this study will provide new knowledge about possible strategies to promote a better diabetes self-management in a particularly vulnerable group. If effective, this low cost intervention will have the potential to be easily incorporated into routine clinical practice, contributing to decrease health inequalities in diabetic patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION Clinical Trials U.S. National Institutes of Health, NCT01849731.

Perioperative anemia management in colorectal cancer patients: A pragmatic approach.

Anemia, usually due to iron deficiency, is highly prevalent among patients with colorectal cancer. Inflammatory cytokines lead to iron restricted erythropoiesis further decreasing iron availability and impairing iron utilization. Preoperative anemia predicts for decreased survival. Allogeneic blood transfusion is widely used to correct anemia and is associated with poorer surgical outcomes, increased post-operative nosocomial infections, longer hospital stays, increased rates of cancer recurrence and perioperative venous thromboembolism. Infections are more likely to occur in those with low preoperative serum ferritin level compared to those with normal levels. A multidisciplinary, multimodal, individualized strategy, collectively termed Patient Blood Management, minimizes or eliminates allogeneic blood transfusion. This includes restrictive transfusion policy, thromboprophylaxis and anemia management to improve outcomes. Normalization of preoperative hemoglobin levels is a World Health Organization recommendation. Iron repletion should be routinely ordered when indicated. Oral iron is poorly tolerated with low adherence based on published evidence. Intravenous iron is safe and effective but is frequently avoided due to misinformation and misinterpretation concerning the incidence and clinical nature of minor infusion reactions. Serious adverse events with intravenous iron are extremely rare. Newer formulations allow complete replacement dosing in 15-60 min markedly facilitating care. Erythropoiesis stimulating agents may improve response rates. A multidisciplinary, multimodal, individualized strategy, collectively termed Patient Blood Management used to minimize or eliminate allogeneic blood transfusion is indicated to improve outcomes.

Améliorer la prise en charge de l'hypertension arterielle en favorisant la collaboration avec les pharmaciens et les infirmières [Team-based care involving pharmacists and nurses to improve the management of hypertension].

Only half of hypertensive patients has controlled blood pressure. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is also associated with low blood pressure control, 25-30% of CKD patients achieving adequate blood pressure. The Community Preventive Services Task Force has recently recommended team-based care to improve blood pressure control. Team-based care of hypertension involves facilitating coordination of care among physician, pharmacist and nurse and requires sharing clinical data, laboratory results, and medications, e.g., electronically or by fax. Based on recent studies, development and evaluation of team-based care of hypertensive patients should be done in the Swiss healthcare system.

Evidence-based Economic Policy - Three Essays in Applied Microeconometrics

Over thirty years ago, Leamer (1983) - among many others - expressed doubts about the quality and usefulness of empirical analyses for the economic profession by stating that "hardly anyone takes data analyses seriously. Or perhaps more accurately, hardly anyone takes anyone else's data analyses seriously" (p.37). Improvements in data quality, more robust estimation methods and the evolution of better research designs seem to make that assertion no longer justifiable (see Angrist and Pischke (2010) for a recent response to Leamer's essay). The economic profes- sion and policy makers alike often rely on empirical evidence as a means to investigate policy relevant questions. The approach of using scientifically rigorous and systematic evidence to identify policies and programs that are capable of improving policy-relevant outcomes is known under the increasingly popular notion of evidence-based policy. Evidence-based economic policy often relies on randomized or quasi-natural experiments in order to identify causal effects of policies. These can require relatively strong assumptions or raise concerns of external validity. In the context of this thesis, potential concerns are for example endogeneity of policy reforms with respect to the business cycle in the first chapter, the trade-off between precision and bias in the regression-discontinuity setting in chapter 2 or non-representativeness of the sample due to self-selection in chapter 3. While the identification strategies are very useful to gain insights into the causal effects of specific policy questions, transforming the evidence into concrete policy conclusions can be challenging. Policy develop- ment should therefore rely on the systematic evidence of a whole body of research on a specific policy question rather than on a single analysis. In this sense, this thesis cannot and should not be viewed as a comprehensive analysis of specific policy issues but rather as a first step towards a better understanding of certain aspects of a policy question. The thesis applies new and innovative identification strategies to policy-relevant and topical questions in the fields of labor economics and behavioral environmental economics. Each chapter relies on a different identification strategy. In the first chapter, we employ a difference- in-differences approach to exploit the quasi-experimental change in the entitlement of the max- imum unemployment benefit duration to identify the medium-run effects of reduced benefit durations on post-unemployment outcomes. Shortening benefit duration carries a double- dividend: It generates fiscal benefits without deteriorating the quality of job-matches. On the contrary, shortened benefit durations improve medium-run earnings and employment possibly through containing the negative effects of skill depreciation or stigmatization. While the first chapter provides only indirect evidence on the underlying behavioral channels, in the second chapter I develop a novel approach that allows to learn about the relative impor- tance of the two key margins of job search - reservation wage choice and search effort. In the framework of a standard non-stationary job search model, I show how the exit rate from un- employment can be decomposed in a way that is informative on reservation wage movements over the unemployment spell. The empirical analysis relies on a sharp discontinuity in unem- ployment benefit entitlement, which can be exploited in a regression-discontinuity approach to identify the effects of extended benefit durations on unemployment and survivor functions. I find evidence that calls for an important role of reservation wage choices for job search be- havior. This can have direct implications for the optimal design of unemployment insurance policies. The third chapter - while thematically detached from the other chapters - addresses one of the major policy challenges of the 21st century: climate change and resource consumption. Many governments have recently put energy efficiency on top of their agendas. While pricing instru- ments aimed at regulating the energy demand have often been found to be short-lived and difficult to enforce politically, the focus of energy conservation programs has shifted towards behavioral approaches - such as provision of information or social norm feedback. The third chapter describes a randomized controlled field experiment in which we discuss the effective- ness of different types of feedback on residential electricity consumption. We find that detailed and real-time feedback caused persistent electricity reductions on the order of 3 to 5 % of daily electricity consumption. Also social norm information can generate substantial electricity sav- ings when designed appropriately. The findings suggest that behavioral approaches constitute effective and relatively cheap way of improving residential energy-efficiency.