Code assessment and modelling for Design Basis Accident Analysis of the European sodium fast reactor design. Part I: System description, modelling and benchmarking

The new reactor concepts proposed in the Generation IV International Forum (GIF) are conceived to improve the use of natural resources, reduce the amount of high-level radioactive waste and excel in their reliability and safe operation. Among these novel designs sodium fast reactors (SFRs) stand out due to their technological feasibility as demonstrated in several countries during the last decades. As part of the contribution of EURATOM to GIF the CP-ESFR is a collaborative project with the objective, among others, to perform extensive analysis on safety issues involving renewed SFR demonstrator designs. The verification of computational tools able to simulate the plant behaviour under postulated accidental conditions by code-to-code comparison was identified as a key point to ensure reactor safety. In this line, several organizations employed coupled neutronic and thermal-hydraulic system codes able to simulate complex and specific phenomena involving multi-physics studies adapted to this particular fast reactor technology. In the “Introduction” of this paper the framework of this study is discussed, the second section describes the envisaged plant design and the commonly agreed upon modelling guidelines. The third section presents a comparative analysis of the calculations performed by each organisation applying their models and codes to a common agreed transient with the objective to harmonize the models as well as validating the implementation of all relevant physical phenomena in the different system codes.

High-resolution spatial modelling of greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change to energy crops in the United Kingdom

Funded by Energy Technologies Institute EPSRC-Supergen. Grant Number: EP/M013200/1

Quantifying pursuit-diving seabirds’ associations with fine-scale physical features in tidal streamenvironments

Acknowledgements James J. Waggitt was funded by a NERC Case studentship supported by OpenHydro Ltd and Marine Scotland Science (NE/J500148/1). Vessel-based transects were funded by a NERC (NE/J004340/1) and a Scottish National Heritage (SNH) grant. FVCOM modelling was funded by a NERC grant (NE/J004316/1). Marine Scotland Science provided time on the FRV Alba-na-Mara as part as the Marine Collaboration Research Forum (MarCRF). The bathymetry data used in hydrodynamic models (HI 1122 Sanday Sound to Westray Firth) was collected by the Maritime & Coastguard Agency (MCA) as part of the UK Civil Hydrography Programme. We wish to thank Christina Bristow, Matthew Finn and Jennifer Norris at the European Marine Energy Centre (EMEC); Marianna Chimienti, Ciaran Cronin, Tim Sykes and Stuart Thomas for performing vessel-based transects; Marine Scotland Science staff Eric Armstrong, Ian Davies, Mike Robertson, Robert Watret and Michael Stewart for their assistance; Shaun Fraser, Pauline Goulet, Alex Robbins, Helen Wade and Jared Wilson for invaluable discussions; Thomas Cornulier, Alex Douglas, James Grecian and Samantha Patrick for their help with statistical analysis; and Gavin Siriwardena, Leigh Torres, Mark Whittingham and Russell Wynn for their constructive comments on earlier versions of this manuscript.

Modelling and testing volatility spillovers in oil and financial markets for USA, UK and China

The primary purpose of the paper is to analyze the conditional correlations, conditional covariances, and co-volatility spillovers between international crude oil and associated financial markets. The paper investigates co-volatility spillovers (namely, the delayed effect of a returns shock in one physical or financial asset on the subsequent volatility or co-volatility in another physical or financial asset) between the oil and financial markets. The oil industry has four major regions, namely North Sea, USA, Middle East, and South-East Asia. Associated with these regions are two major financial centers, namely UK and USA. For these reasons, the data to be used are the returns on alternative crude oil markets, returns on crude oil derivatives, specifically futures, and stock index returns in UK and USA. The paper will also analyze the Chinese financial markets, where the data are more recent. The empirical analysis will be based on the diagonal BEKK model, from which the conditional covariances will be used for testing co-volatility spillovers, and policy recommendations. Based on these results, dynamic hedging strategies will be suggested to analyze market fluctuations in crude oil prices and associated financial markets.

Drivers of Agricultural Physical Capital Development: Theoretical Framework and Hypotheses. Factor Markets Working Paper No. 18, February 2012

This paper aims to identify drivers of physical capital adjustments in agriculture. It begins with a review of some of the most important theories and modelling approaches regarding firms’ adjustments of physical capital, ranging from output-based models to more recent approaches that consider irreversibility and uncertainty. Thereafter, it is suggested that determinants of physical capital adjustments in agriculture can be divided into three main groups, namely drivers related to: i) expected (risk-adjusted) profit, ii) expected societal benefits and costs and iii) expected private nonpecuniary benefits and costs. The discussion that follows focuses on the determinants belonging to the first group and covers aspects related to product market conditions, technological conditions, financial conditions and the role of firm structure and organization. Furthermore, the role of subjective beliefs is emphasized. The main part of this paper is concerned with the demand side of the physical capital market and one section also briefly discusses some aspects related to supply of farm assets.

Modelling the input-output behaviour of piezoelectric structural health monitoring systems for composite plates

This paper investigates the input-output characteristics of structural health monitoring systems for composite plates based on permanently attached piezoelectric transmitter and sensor elements. Using dynamic piezoelectricity theory and a multiple integral transform method to describe the propagating and scattered flexural waves an electro-mechanical model for simulating the voltage input-output transfer function for circular piezoelectric transmitters and sensors adhesively attached to an orthotropic composite plate is developed. The method enables the characterization of all three physical processes, i.e. wave generation, wave propagation and wave reception. The influence of transducer, plate and attached electrical circuit characteristics on the voltage output behaviour of the system is examined through numerical calculations, both in frequency and the time domain. The results show that the input-output behaviour of the system is not properly predicted by the transducers' properties alone. Coupling effects between the transducers and the tested structure have to be taken into account, and adding backing materials to the piezoelectric elements can significantly improve the sensitivity of the system. It is shown that in order to achieve maximum sensitivity, particular piezoelectric transmitters and sensors need to be designed according to the structure to be monitored and the specific frequency regime of interest.

Numerical modelling of radiating superorbital flows

Experimental aerodynamic studies of the flows around new aerocapture spacecraft configurations are presently being done in the superorbital expansion tubes at The University of Queensland. Short duration flows at speeds of 10--13 km/s are produced in the expansion tube facility and are then applied to the model spacecraft. Although high-temperature effects, such as molecular dissociation, have long been a part of the computational modelling of the expansion tube flows for speeds below 10 km/s, radiation may now be a significant mechanism of energy transfer within the shock layer on the model. This paper will study the coupling of radiation energy transport for an optically thin gas to the flow dynamics in order to obtain accurate predictions of thermal loads on the spacecraft. The results show that the effect of radiation on the flowfields of subscale models for expansion tube experiments can be assessed by measurements of total heat transfer and radiative heat transfer.

A way forward for land-use planning to achieve policy goals by using spatial modelling scenarios

This paper investigates how demographic (socioeconomic) and land-use (physical and environmental) data can be integrated within a decision support framework to formulate and evaluate land-use planning scenarios. A case-study approach is undertaken with land-use planning scenarios for a rapidly growing coastal area in Australia, the Shire of Hervey Bay. The town and surrounding area require careful planning of the future urban growth between competing land uses. Three potential urban growth scenarios are put forth to address this issue. Scenario A ('continued growth') is based on existing socioeconomic trends. Scenario B ('maximising rates base') is derived using optimisation modelling of land-valuation data. Scenario C ('sustainable development') is derived using a number of social, economic, and environmental factors and assigning weightings of importance to each factor using a multiple criteria analysis approach. The land-use planning scenarios are presented through the use of maps and tables within a geographical information system, which delineate future possible land-use allocations up until 2021. The planning scenarios are evaluated by using a goal-achievement matrix approach. The matrix is constructed with a number of criteria derived from key policy objectives outlined in the regional growth management framework and town planning schemes. The authors of this paper examine the final efficiency scores calculated for each of the three planning scenarios and discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the three land-use modelling approaches used to formulate the final scenarios.

Matching conditional moments in PDF modelling of nonpremixed combustion

The rate of generation of fluctuations with respect to the scalar values conditioned on the mixture fraction, which significantly affects turbulent nonpremixed combustion processes, is examined. Simulation of the rate in a major mixing model is investigated and the derived equations can assist in selecting the model parameters so that the level of conditional fluctuations is better reproduced by the models. A more general formulation of the multiple mapping conditioning (MMC) model that distinguishes the reference and conditioning variables is suggested. This formulation can be viewed as a methodology of enforcing certain desired conditional properties onto conventional mixing models. Examples of constructing consistent MMC models with dissipation and velocity conditioning as well as of combining MMC with large eddy simulations (LES) are also provided. (c) 2005 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modelling cell lifespan and proliferation: is likelihood to die or to divide independent of age?

In cell lifespan studies the exponential nature of cell survival curves is often interpreted as showing the rate of death is independent of the age of the cells within the population. Here we present an alternative model where cells that die are replaced and the age and lifespan of the population pool is monitored until a, steady state is reached. In our model newly generated individual cells are given a determined lifespan drawn from a number of known distributions including the lognormal, which is frequently found in nature. For lognormal lifespans the analytic steady-state survival curve obtained can be well-fit by a single or double exponential, depending on the mean and standard deviation. Thus, experimental evidence for exponential lifespans of one and/or two populations cannot be taken as definitive evidence for time and age independence of cell survival. A related model for a dividing population in steady state is also developed. We propose that the common adoption of age-independent, constant rates of change in biological modelling may be responsible for significant errors, both of interpretation and of mathematical deduction. We suggest that additional mathematical and experimental methods must be used to resolve the relationship between time and behavioural changes by cells that are predominantly unsynchronized.

Modelling photo-detectors in quantum optics

Photo-detection plays a fundamental role in experimental quantum optics and is of particular importance in the emerging field of linear optics quantum computing. Present theoretical treatment of photo-detectors is highly idealized and fails to consider many important physical effects. We present a physically motivated model for photo-detectors which accommodates for the effects of finite resolution, bandwidth and efficiency, as well as dark counts and dead-time. We apply our model to two simple well-known applications, which illustrates the significance of these characteristics.

Multidimensional modelling to investigate interspecies hydrogen transfer in anaerobic biofilms

Anaerobic digestion is a multistep process, mediated by a functionally and phylogenetically diverse microbial population. One of the crucial steps is oxidation of organic acids, with electron transfer via hydrogen or formate from acetogenic bacteria to methanogens. This syntrophic microbiological process is strongly restricted by a thermodynamic limitation on the allowable hydrogen or formate concentration. In order to study this process in more detail, we developed an individual-based biofilm model which enables to describe the processes at a microbial resolution. The biochemical model is the ADM1, implemented in a multidimensional domain. With this model, we evaluated three important issues for the syntrophic relationship: (i) is there a fundamental difference in using hydrogen or formate as electron carrier? (ii) Does a thermodynamic-based inhibition function produced substantially different results from an empirical function? and; (iii) Does the physical colocation of acetogens and methanogens follow directly from a general model. Hydrogen or formate as electron carrier had no substantial impact on model results. Standard inhibition functions or thermodynamic inhibition function gave similar results at larger substrate field grid sizes (> 10 mu m), but at smaller grid sizes, the thermodynamic-based function reduced the number of cells with long interspecies distances (> 2.5 mu m). Therefore, a very fine grid resolution is needed to reflect differences between the thermodynamic function, and a more generic inhibition form. The co-location of syntrophic bacteria was well predicted without a need to assume a microbiological based mechanism (e.g., through chemotaxis) of biofilm formation.

Stochastic modelling and simulations for solute transport in porous media

A stochastic model for solute transport in aquifers is studied based on the concepts of stochastic velocity and stochastic diffusivity. By applying finite difference techniques to the spatial variables of the stochastic governing equation, a system of stiff stochastic ordinary differential equations is obtained. Both the semi-implicit Euler method and the balanced implicit method are used for solving this stochastic system. Based on the Karhunen-Loeve expansion, stochastic processes in time and space are calculated by means of a spatial correlation matrix. Four types of spatial correlation matrices are presented based on the hydraulic properties of physical parameters. Simulations with two types of correlation matrices are presented.