Calcoli di sezioni d'urto efficaci di riflettore in sistemi PWR di terza generazione

La corretta modellizzazione della zona del riflettore dei sistemi GEN III+ è un passaggio fondamentale per un’accurata predizione dei parametri di cella il cui valore influenza direttamente la distribuzione di potenza su tutto il nocciolo. Tale esigenza si è resa ancora più stringente dopo la constatazione che il fenomeno del “tilt power” risulta essere più amplificato nei noccioli nucleari equipaggiati con un riflettore pesante. Per tali ragioni, nel presente lavoro di tesi si è dedicata particolare attenzione alle metodiche di modellizzazione ed alla generazione delle sezioni d’urto efficaci omogenee ed agli assembly discontinuity factors (ADF) nella zona di riflessione. Il codice deterministico utilizzato per il calcolo è SCALE 6.1.3. La notevole differenza nelle proprietà neutroniche associata ad un’elevata eterogeneità geometrica tra un nocciolo ed un riflettore hanno suggerito di effettuare un’analisi preliminare sul sistema riflettente GEN II proposto nel benchmark NEA-NSC-DOC (2013) per testare la capacità di SCALE 6.1.3 di effettuare un corretto calcolo di cella adottando una modellizzazione monodimensionale assembly/riflettore. I risultati ottenuti sono confrontati con quelli presentati nel benchmark e e con quelli valutati attraverso il codice Monte Carlo SERPENT 2.0 confermando la capacità di calcolo di SCALE 6.1.3. L’analisi sulla modellizzazione dei sistemi riflettenti GEN III+ è stata effettuata ricavando il valore dei parametri di cella per configurazioni omogenee ed una serie di configurazioni geometriche esatte che comprendono tutte le modellizzazioni del sistema riflettente lungo la direzione angolare del riflettore. Si è inoltre effettuata un’analisi di sensitività su parametri operativi e sui parametri di codice. Si è infine effettuato un calcolo in color-set per indagare l’influenza degli effetti 2-D sui parametri di cella. I risultati prodotti rappresentano un contributo migliorativo nella conoscenza dei parametri di cella di riflettore e potranno essere utilizzati per una più precisa valutazione del fenomeno del tilt nei sistemi GEN III+.

Transmission dynamics of Chlamydia trachomatis affect the impact of screening programmes

To assess the impact of screening programmes in reducing the prevalence of Chlamydia trachomatis, mathematical and computational models are used as a guideline for decision support. Unfortunately, large uncertainties exist about the parameters that determine the transmission dynamics of C. trachomatis. Here, we use a SEIRS (susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-susceptible) model to critically analyze the turnover of C. trachomatis in a population and the impact of a screening programme. We perform a sensitivity analysis on the most important steps during an infection with C. trachomatis. Varying the fraction of the infections becoming symptomatic as well as the duration of the symptomatic period within the range of previously used parameter estimates has little effect on the transmission dynamics. However, uncertainties in the duration of temporary immunity and the asymptomatic period can result in large differences in the predicted impact of a screening programme. We therefore analyze previously published data on the persistence of asymptomatic C. trachomatis infection in women and estimate the mean duration of the asymptomatic period to be longer than anticipated so far, namely 433 days (95% CI: 420-447 days). Our study shows that a longer duration of the asymptomatic period results in a more pronounced impact of a screening programme. However, due to the slower turnover of the infection, a substantial reduction in prevalence can only be achieved after screening for several years or decades.

Stress and Strain Adaptation in Load-Dependent Remodeling of the Embryonic Left Ventricle

Altered pressure in the developing left ventricle (LV) results in altered morphology and tissue material properties. Mechanical stress and strain may play a role in the regulating process. This study showed that confocal microscopy, three-dimensional reconstruction, and finite element analysis can provide a detailed model of stress and strain in the trabeculated embryonic heart. The method was used to test the hypothesis that end-diastolic strains are normalized after altered loading of the LV during the stages of trabecular compaction and chamber formation. Stage-29 chick LVs subjected to pressure overload and underload at stage 21 were reconstructed with full trabecular morphology from confocal images and analyzed with finite element techniques. Measured material properties and intraventricular pressures were specified in the models. The results show volume-weighted end-diastolic von Mises stress and strain averaging 50–82% higher in the trabecular tissue than in the compact wall. The volume-weighted-average stresses for the entire LV were 115, 64, and 147Pa in control, underloaded, and overloaded models, while strains were 11, 7, and 4%; thus, neither was normalized in a volume-weighted sense. Localized epicardial strains at mid-longitudinal level were similar among the three groups and to strains measured from high-resolution ultrasound images. Sensitivity analysis showed changes in material properties are more significant than changes in geometry in the overloaded strain adaptation, although resulting stress was similar in both types of adaptation. These results emphasize the importance of appropriate metrics and the role of trabecular tissue in evaluating the evolution of stress and strain in relation to pressure-induced adaptation.

Deglaciation records of 17O-excess in East Antarctica: reliable reconstruction of oceanic relative humidity from coastal sites

We measured δ17O and δ18O in two Antarctic ice cores at EPICA Dome C (EDC) and TALDICE (TD), respectively and computed 17O-excess with respect to VSMOW. The comparison of our 17O-excess data with the previous record obtained at Vostok (Landais et al., 2008) revealed differences up to 35 ppm in 17O-excess mean level and evolution for the three sites. Our data showed that the large increase depicted at Vostok (20 ppm) during the last deglaciation, is a regional and not a general pattern in the temporal distribution of 17O-excess in East Antarctica. The EDC data display an increase of 13 ppm, whereas the TD data show no significant variation from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Early Holocene (EH). Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic revealed very different source regions for Vostok and EDC compared to TD. These findings combined with the results of a sensitivity analysis, using a Rayleigh-type isotopic model, suggest that relative humidity (RH) at the oceanic source region (OSR) are a determining factor for the spatial differences of 17O-excess in East Antarctica. However, 17O-excess in remote sites of continental Antarctica (e.g. Vostok) may be highly sensitive to local effects. Hence, we consider 17O-excess in coastal East Antarctic ice cores (TD) to be more reliable as a proxy for RH at the OSR.

Effects of drilling and stress release on hydraulic properties and porewater chemistry of crystalline rocks

The experimental verification of matrix diffusion in crystalline rocks largely relies on indirect methods performed in the laboratory. Such methods are prone to perturbations of the rock samples by collection and preparation and therefore the laboratory-derived transport properties and fluid composition might not represent in situ conditions. We investigated the effects induced by the drilling process and natural rock stress release by mass balance considerations and sensitivity analysis of analytical out-diffusion data obtained from originally saturated, large-sized drillcore material from two locations drilled using traced drilling fluid. For in situ stress-released drillcores of quartz-monzodiorite composition from the Aspo HRL, Sweden, tracer mass balance considerations and 1D and 2D diffusion modelling consistently indicated a contamination of <1% of the original pore water. This chemically disturbed zone extends to a maximum of 0.1 mm into the drillcore (61.8 mm x 180.1 mm) corresponding to about 0.66% of the total pore volume (0.77 vol.%). In contrast, the combined effects of stress release and the drilling process, which have influenced granodioritic drillcore material from 560 m below surface at Forsmark. Sweden, resulted in a maximum contamination of the derived porewater Cl(-) concentration of about 8%. The mechanically disturbed zone with modified diffusion properties covers the outermost similar to 6 mm of the drillcore (50 mm x 189 mm), whereas the chemically disturbed zone extends to a maximum of 0.3 mm based on mass balance considerations, and to 0.15 mm to 0.2 mm into the drillcore based on fitting the observed tracer data. This corresponds to a maximum of 2.4% of the total pore volume (0.62 vol.%) being affected by the drilling-fluid contamination. The proportion of rock volume affected initially by drilling fluid or subsequently with experiment water during the laboratory diffusion and re-saturation experiments depends on the size of the drillcore material and will become larger the smaller the sample used for the experiment. The results are further in support of matrix diffusion taking place in the undisturbed matrix of crystalline rocks at least in the cm range.

Resurgence of HIV infection among men who have sex with men in Switzerland: mathematical modelling study

Background New HIV infections in men who have sex with men (MSM) have increased in Switzerland since 2000 despite combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The objectives of this mathematical modelling study were: to describe the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in MSM in Switzerland using national data; to explore the effects of hypothetical prevention scenarios; and to conduct a multivariate sensitivity analysis. Methodology/Principal Findings The model describes HIV transmission, progression and the effects of cART using differential equations. The model was fitted to Swiss HIV and AIDS surveillance data and twelve unknown parameters were estimated. Predicted numbers of diagnosed HIV infections and AIDS cases fitted the observed data well. By the end of 2010, an estimated 13.5% (95% CI 12.5, 14.6%) of all HIV-infected MSM were undiagnosed and accounted for 81.8% (95% CI 81.1, 82.4%) of new HIV infections. The transmission rate was at its lowest from 1995–1999, with a nadir of 46 incident HIV infections in 1999, but increased from 2000. The estimated number of new infections continued to increase to more than 250 in 2010, although the reproduction number was still below the epidemic threshold. Prevention scenarios included temporary reductions in risk behaviour, annual test and treat, and reduction in risk behaviour to levels observed earlier in the epidemic. These led to predicted reductions in new infections from 2 to 26% by 2020. Parameters related to disease progression and relative infectiousness at different HIV stages had the greatest influence on estimates of the net transmission rate. Conclusions/Significance The model outputs suggest that the increase in HIV transmission amongst MSM in Switzerland is the result of continuing risky sexual behaviour, particularly by those unaware of their infection status. Long term reductions in the incidence of HIV infection in MSM in Switzerland will require increased and sustained uptake of effective interventions.

Deglaciation records of 17O-excess in East Antarctica: reliable reconstruction of oceanic normalized relative humidity from coastal sites

We measured δ17O and δ18O in two Antarctic ice cores at EPICA Dome C (EDC) and TALDICE (TD), respectively, and computed 17O-excess with respect to VSMOW. The comparison of our 17O-excess data with the previous record obtained at Vostok (Landais et al., 2008a) revealed differences up to 35 ppm in 17O-excess mean level and evolution for the three sites. Our data show that the large increase depicted at Vostok (20 ppm) during the last deglaciation is a regional and not a general pattern in the temporal distribution of 17O-excess in East Antarctica. The EDC data display an increase of 12 ppm, whereas the TD data show no significant variation from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Early Holocene (EH). A Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic revealed very different source regions for Vostok and EDC compared to TD. These findings combined with the results of a sensitivity analysis, using a Rayleigh-type isotopic model, suggest that normalized relative humidity (RHn) at the oceanic source region (OSR) is a determining factor for the spatial differences of 17O-excess in East Antarctica. However, 17O-excess in remote sites of continental Antarctica (e.g. Vostok) may be highly sensitive to local effects. Hence, we consider 17O-excess in coastal East Antarctic ice cores (TD) to be more reliable as a proxy for RHn at the OSR.

Simulating the impact of four control strategies on the population dynamics of Neospora caninum infection in Swiss dairy cattle

A dynamic deterministic simulation model was developed to assess the impact of different putative control strategies on the seroprevalence of Neospora caninum in female Swiss dairy cattle. The model structure comprised compartments of "susceptible" and "infected" animals (SI-model) and the cattle population was divided into 12 age classes. A reference model (Model 1) was developed to simulate the current (status quo) situation (present seroprevalence in Switzerland 12%), taking into account available demographic and seroprevalence data of Switzerland. Model 1 was modified to represent four putative control strategies: testing and culling of seropositive animals (Model 2), discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows (Model 3), chemotherapeutic treatment of calves from seropositive cows (Model 4), and vaccination of susceptible and infected animals (Model 5). Models 2-4 considered different sub-scenarios with regard to the frequency of diagnostic testing. Multivariable Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of uncertainty in input parameters. A policy of annual testing and culling of all seropositive cattle in the population reduced the seroprevalence effectively and rapidly from 12% to <1% in the first year of simulation. The control strategies with discontinued breeding with offspring from all seropositive cows, chemotherapy of calves and vaccination of all cattle reduced the prevalence more slowly than culling but were still very effective (reduction of prevalence below 2% within 11, 23 and 3 years of simulation, respectively). However, sensitivity analyses revealed that the effectiveness of these strategies depended strongly on the quality of the input parameters used, such as the horizontal and vertical transmission factors, the sensitivity of the diagnostic test and the efficacy of medication and vaccination. Finally, all models confirmed that it was not possible to completely eradicate N. caninum as long as the horizontal transmission process was not interrupted.

A Mechanistic Latent Variable Model for Estimating Drug Concentrations in the Male Genital Tract

The purpose of this study is to develop statistical methodology to facilitate indirect estimation of the concentration of antiretroviral drugs and viral loads in the prostate gland and the seminal vesicle. The differences in antiretroviral drug concentrations in these organs may lead to suboptimal concentrations in one gland compared to the other. Suboptimal levels of the antiretroviral drugs will not be able to fully suppress the virus in that gland, lead to a source of sexually transmissible virus and increase the chance of selecting for drug resistant virus. This information may be useful selecting antiretroviral drug regimen that will achieve optimal concentrations in most of male genital tract glands. Using fractionally collected semen ejaculates, Lundquist (1949) measured levels of surrogate markers in each fraction that are uniquely produced by specific male accessory glands. To determine the original glandular concentrations of the surrogate markers, Lundquist solved a simultaneous series of linear equations. This method has several limitations. In particular, it does not yield a unique solution, it does not address measurement error, and it disregards inter-subject variability in the parameters. To cope with these limitations, we developed a mechanistic latent variable model based on the physiology of the male genital tract and surrogate markers. We employ a Bayesian approach and perform a sensitivity analysis with regard to the distributional assumptions on the random effects and priors. The model and Bayesian approach is validated on experimental data where the concentration of a drug should be (biologically) differentially distributed between the two glands. In this example, the Bayesian model-based conclusions are found to be robust to model specification and this hierarchical approach leads to more scientifically valid conclusions than the original methodology. In particular, unlike existing methods, the proposed model based approach was not affected by a common form of outliers.

Healthcare and patient costs of a proactive chlamydia screening programme: the Chlamydia Screening Studies project

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Most economic evaluations of chlamydia screening do not include costs incurred by patients. The objective of this study was to estimate both the health service and private costs of patients who participated in proactive chlamydia screening, using mailed home-collected specimens as part of the Chlamydia Screening Studies project. METHODS: Data were collected on the administrative costs of the screening study, laboratory time and motion studies and patient-cost questionnaire surveys were conducted. The cost for each screening invitation and for each accepted offer was estimated. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the effects of variations in patient costs and the number of patients accepting the screening offer. RESULTS: The time and costs of processing urine specimens and vulvo-vaginal swabs from women using two nucleic acid amplification tests were similar. The total cost per screening invitation was 20.37 pounds (95% CI 18.94 pounds to 24.83). This included the National Health Service cost per individual screening invitation 13.55 pounds (95% CI 13.15 pounds to 14.33) and average patient costs of 6.82 pounds (95% CI 5.48 pounds to 10.22). Administrative costs accounted for 50% of the overall cost. CONCLUSIONS: The cost of proactive chlamydia screening is comparable to those of opportunistic screening. Results from this study, which is the first to collect private patient costs associated with a chlamydia screening programme, could be used to inform future policy recommendations and provide unique primary cost data for economic evaluations.

Cost-effectiveness of pharmacogenetic testing to predict treatment response to angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the potential cost-effectiveness of testing patients with nephropathies for the I/D polymorphism before starting angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor therapy, using a 3-year time horizon and a healthcare perspective. METHODS: We used a combination of a decision analysis and Markov modeling technique to evaluate the potential economic value of this pharmacogenetic test by preventing unfavorable treatment in patients with nephropathies. The estimation of the predictive value of the I/D polymorphism is based on a systematic review showing that DD carriers tend to respond well to ACE inhibitors, while II carriers seem not to benefit adequately from this treatment. Data on the ACE inhibitor effectiveness in nephropathy were derived from the REIN (Ramipril Efficacy in Nephropathy) trial. We calculated the number of patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) prevented and the differences in the incremental costs and incremental effect expressed as life-years free of ESRD. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the robustness of the results. RESULTS: Compared with unselective treatment, testing patients for their ACE genotype could save 12 patients per 1000 from developing ESRD during the 3 years covered by the model. As the mean net cost savings was euro 356,000 per 1000 patient-years, and 9 life-years free of ESRD were gained, selective treatment seems to be dominant. CONCLUSION: The study suggests that genetic testing of the I/D polymorphism in patients with nephropathy before initiating ACE therapy will most likely be cost-effective, even if the risk for II carriers to develop ESRD when treated with ACE inhibitors is only 1.4% higher than for DD carriers. Further studies, however, are required to corroborate the difference in treatment response between ACE genotypes, before genetic testing can be justified in clinical practice.

Relation of white matter anisotropy to visual memory in 17 healthy subjects

We performed a Rey visual design learning test (RVDLT) in 17 subjects and measured intervoxel coherence (IC) by DTI as an indication of connectivity to investigate if visual memory performance would depend on white matter structure in healthy persons. IC considers the orientation of the adjacent voxels and has a better signal-to-noise ratio than the commonly used fractional anisotropy index. Voxel-based t-test analysis of the IC values was used to identify neighboring voxel clusters with significant differences between 7 low and 10 high test performers. We detected 9 circumscribed significant clusters (p< .01) with lower IC values in low performers than in high performers, with centers of gravity located in left and right superior temporal region, corpus callosum, left superior longitudinal fascicle, and left optic radiation. Using non-parametric correlation analysis, IC and memory performance were significantly correlated in each of the 9 clusters (r< .61 to r< .81; df=15, p< .01 to p< .0001). The findings provide in vivo evidence for the contribution of white matter structure to visual memory in healthy people.

Hydrologic monitoring of an integrated low impact development (LID) underdrained stormwater management system

In 2005, Wetland Studies and Solutions, Inc. (WSSI) installed an extensive Low Impact Development (LID) stormwater management system on their new office site in Gainesville, Virginia. The 4-acre site is serviced by a network of LID components: permeable pavements (two proprietary and one gravel type), bioretention cell / rain garden, green roof, vegetated swale, rainwater harvesting and drip irrigation, and slow-release underground detention. The site consists of heavy clay soils, and the LID components are mostly integrated by a series of underdrain pipes. A comprehensive monitoring system has been designed and installed to measure hydrologic performance throughout the LID, underdrained network. The monitoring system measures flows into and out of each LID component independently while concurrently monitoring rainfall events. A sensitivity analysis and laboratory calibration has been performed on the flow measurement system. Field data has been evaluated to determine the hydrologic performance of the LID features. Finally, hydrologic models amenable to compact, underdrained LID sites have been reviewed and recommended for future modeling and design.

DEVELOPMENT OF AN OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR BIOFUEL FACILITY SIZE AND LOCATION AND A SIMULATION MODEL FOR DESIGN OF A BIOFUEL SUPPLY CHAIN

A range of societal issues have been caused by fossil fuel consumption in the transportation sector in the United States (U.S.), including health related air pollution, climate change, the dependence on imported oil, and other oil related national security concerns. Biofuels production from various lignocellulosic biomass types such as wood, forest residues, and agriculture residues have the potential to replace a substantial portion of the total fossil fuel consumption. This research focuses on locating biofuel facilities and designing the biofuel supply chain to minimize the overall cost. For this purpose an integrated methodology was proposed by combining the GIS technology with simulation and optimization modeling methods. The GIS based methodology was used as a precursor for selecting biofuel facility locations by employing a series of decision factors. The resulted candidate sites for biofuel production served as inputs for simulation and optimization modeling. As a precursor to simulation or optimization modeling, the GIS-based methodology was used to preselect potential biofuel facility locations for biofuel production from forest biomass. Candidate locations were selected based on a set of evaluation criteria, including: county boundaries, a railroad transportation network, a state/federal road transportation network, water body (rivers, lakes, etc.) dispersion, city and village dispersion, a population census, biomass production, and no co-location with co-fired power plants. The simulation and optimization models were built around key supply activities including biomass harvesting/forwarding, transportation and storage. The built onsite storage served for spring breakup period where road restrictions were in place and truck transportation on certain roads was limited. Both models were evaluated using multiple performance indicators, including cost (consisting of the delivered feedstock cost, and inventory holding cost), energy consumption, and GHG emissions. The impact of energy consumption and GHG emissions were expressed in monetary terms to keep consistent with cost. Compared with the optimization model, the simulation model represents a more dynamic look at a 20-year operation by considering the impacts associated with building inventory at the biorefinery to address the limited availability of biomass feedstock during the spring breakup period. The number of trucks required per day was estimated and the inventory level all year around was tracked. Through the exchange of information across different procedures (harvesting, transportation, and biomass feedstock processing procedures), a smooth flow of biomass from harvesting areas to a biofuel facility was implemented. The optimization model was developed to address issues related to locating multiple biofuel facilities simultaneously. The size of the potential biofuel facility is set up with an upper bound of 50 MGY and a lower bound of 30 MGY. The optimization model is a static, Mathematical Programming Language (MPL)-based application which allows for sensitivity analysis by changing inputs to evaluate different scenarios. It was found that annual biofuel demand and biomass availability impacts the optimal results of biofuel facility locations and sizes.