922 resultados para POPULATION-GROWTH


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Soil degradation threatens agricultural production and food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. In the coming decades, soil degradation, in particular soil erosion, will become worse through the expansion of agriculture into savannah and forest and changes in climate. This study aims to improve the understanding of how land use and climate change affect the hydrological cycle and soil erosion rates at the catchment scale. We used the semi-distributed, time-continuous erosion model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) to quantify runoff processes and sheet and rill erosion in the Upper Ouémé River catchment (14500 km**2, Central Benin) for the period 1998-2005. We could then evaluate a range of land use and climate change scenarios with the SWAT model for the period 2001-2050 using spatial data from the land use model CLUE-S and the regional climate model REMO. Field investigations were performed to parameterise a soil map, to measure suspended sediment concentrations for model calibration and validation and to characterise erosion forms, degraded agricultural fields and soil conservation practices. Modelling results reveal current "hotspots" of soil erosion in the north-western, eastern and north-eastern parts of the Upper Ouémé catchment. As a consequence of rapid expansion of agricultural areas triggered by high population growth (partially caused by migration) and resulting increases in surface runoff and topsoil erosion, the mean sediment yield in the Upper Ouémé River outlet is expected to increase by 42 to 95% by 2025, depending on the land use scenario. In contrast, changes in climate variables led to decreases in sediment yield of 5 to 14% in 2001-2025 and 17 to 24% in 2026-2050. Combined scenarios showed the dominance of land use change leading to changes in mean sediment yield of -2 to +31% in 2001-2025. Scenario results vary considerably within the catchment. Current "hotspots" of soil erosion will aggravate, and a new "hotspot" will appear in the southern part of the catchment. Although only small parts of the Upper Ouémé catchment belong to the most degraded zones in the country, sustainable soil and plant management practices should be promoted in the entire catchment. The results of this study can support planning of soil conservation activities in Benin.

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A total of 51,074 archaeological sites from the early Neolithic to the early Iron Age (c. 8000-500 BC), with a spatial extent covering most regions of China (c. 73-131°E and c. 20-53°N), were analysed over space and time in this study. Site maps of 25 Chinese provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, published in the series 'Atlas of Chinese Cultural Relics', were used to extract, digitalise and correlate its archaeological data. The data were, in turn, entered into a database using a self-developed mapping software that makes the data, in a dynamic way, analysable as a contribution to various scientific questions, such as population growth and migrations, spread of agriculture and changes in subsistence strategies. The results clearly show asynchronous patterns of changes between the northern and southern parts of China (i.e. north and south of the Yangtze River, respectively) but also within these macro-regions. In the northern part of China (i.e. along the Yellow River and its tributaries and in the Xiliao River basin), the first noticeable increase in the concentration of Neolithic sites occurred between c. 5000 and 4000 BC; however, highest site concentrations were reached between c. 2000 and 500 BC. Our analysis shows a radical north-eastern shift of high site-density clusters (over 50 sites per 100 * 100 km grid cell) from the Wei and middle/lower Yellow Rivers to the Liao River system sometime between 2350 BC and 1750 BC. This shift is hypothetically discussed in the context of the incorporation of West Asian domesticated animals and plants into the existing northern Chinese agricultural system. In the southern part of China, archaeological sites do not show a noticeable increase in the absolute number of sites until after c. 1500 BC, reaching a maximum around 1000 BC.

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"The series of monographs on 'The General Pattern of Local Government in the Penjerdel Region' ... were made possible by the mutual effort ... of Penjerdel ... the Pennsylvania Economy League ... the University of Delaware; and Rutgers ..."

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En el presente artículo, elaborado con el propósito de abrir un debate sobre la urbanización en el Brasil, se postula que esta se caracteriza por estar consolidada y ser, paradójicamente, mutable. Este supuesto se basa es la evidencia de una nueva cuestión urbana; de la cuasisustitución del crecimiento demográfico producto de la emigración del campo a la ciudad por una compleja relación socioespacial intraurbana; de su corroboración; del desarrollo y uso de indicadores cada vez más precisos en cuanto síntesis de los cambios que se dan en el espacio construido, y de señales de la sustitución de criterios cuantitativos por otros, de carácter cualitativo, para evaluar la oferta de servicios e infraestructura en las ciudades. El marco temporal de las referencias teóricas es el período 1970-2010. La argumentación está estructurada fundamentalmente a partir de una bibliografía seleccionada; el estudio de las variables utilizadas en los censos demográficos, su incremento y sus variaciones, y el examen de las políticas de saneamiento y vivienda social en el período considerado en la investigación.

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Population growth, urban development, and increased commercial and industrial activity in the south-central Puget Lowlands of Washington State has led to an increased demand for groundwater. The Vashon till is a glacially consolidated, low-permeability unit comprising unstratified clay, silt, cobbles and boulders with ubiquitous coarse-grained lenses and is an extensive surficial unit throughout the south-central Puget Lowland. Thus, understanding the physical and hydrological characteristics – specifically, the hydraulic conductivity – of this unit is a necessary component of a groundwater model. This study provides (1) a record of the physical characteristics of Vashon till deposits within the study area; and (2) an estimate of the highest, lowest, and average value of saturated hydraulic conductivity based on the grain-size distribution of Vashon till samples collected from six field sites in the Puyallup River Watershed. Analysis shows that the average moisture content ranges between about 1 and 6%, average dry bulk density is about 2.20 g/cm3, and average porosity is about 17%. Grain-size distributions show that half of the samples analyzed are well graded, while the other half is poorly graded. Grain-size distributions also show an average d10 value of about 0.20 mm, and average ff values ≤ 16%, which are key values in estimating the saturated hydraulic conductivity of over-consolidated glacial deposits. Based on these observed values, the estimates of hydraulic conductivity range from a minimum of 0.02 m/d to a maximum of 1.38 m/d in within the general Vashon till.

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Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

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Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

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The houbara bustard, Chlamydotis undulata, is a declining cryptic desert bird whose range extends from North Africa to Central Asia. Three subspecies are currently recognized by geographical distribution and morphology: C.u.fuertaventurae, C.u.undulata and C.u.macqueenii. We have sequenced 854 bp of mitochondrial control region from 73 birds to describe their population genetic structure with a particular sampling focus on the connectivity between C.u.fuertaventurae and C.u.undulata along the Atlantic seaboard of North Africa. Nucleotide and haplotypic diversity varied among the subspecies being highest in C.u.undulata, lowest in C.u.fuertaventurae and intermediate in C.u.macqueenii. C.u.fuertaventurae and C.u.undulata are paraphyletic and an average nucleotide divergence of 2.08% splits the later from C.u.macqueenii. We estimate that C.u.fuertaventurae and C.u.undulata split from C.u.macqueenii approximately 430 000 years ago. C.u.fuertaventurae and C.u.undulata are weakly differentiated (F-ST = 0.27, N-m = 1.3), indicative of a recent shared history. Archaeological evidence indicates that houbara bustards have been present on the Canary Islands for 130-170 000 years. However, our genetic data point to a more recent separation of C.u.fuertaventurae and C.u.undulata at around 20-25 000 years. Concordant archaeological, climatic opportunities for colonization and genetic data point to a scenario of: (i) initial colonization of the Canary Islands about 130 000 years ago; (ii) a period of secondary contact 19-30 000 years ago homogenizing any pre-existing genetic structure followed by; (iii) a period of relative isolation that persists today.

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This study analysed 21 translocations of the vulnerable black-faced impala (Aepyceros melampus petersi) to 20 Namibian game farms that occurred between 1970 and 2001, seeking characteristics of the translocated populations and the release sites that significantly correlated with the success of the translocations. Characteristics considered were: initial population size; presence of cheetah and leopard; area; habitat type; occurrence within the historical range of the subspecies and occurrence of trophy hunting. Success of translocations was described by whether the population had a positive growth rate. The success rate of translocations of black-faced impala (62%) was higher than shown in other studies of vertebrate translocations. Initial population size was paramount to the success of translocations. Releases of larger populations were more likely to lead to positive population growth rates than were releases of small populations. The presence of cheetah also influenced the success of translocated populations. In the presence of cheetah, small populations translocated to game farms were significantly less likely to be viable than larger populations. Recommendations for the management of this vulnerable antelope include introducing large initial populations, ideally more than 15 animals, rather than attempting to eliminate cheetah following translocations of impala. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Objective: To determine trends in use of Australian acute hospital inpatient services by older patients. Design and data sources: Secondary analysis of hospital data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare in the period 1993-94 to 2001-02, with population data for this period from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Outcome measures: Population-based rates of hospital separations and bed utilisation. Results: The Australian aged population (65 years and older) increased by 18% compared with total population growth of 10%, yet the proportion of hospital beds occupied by older patients remained stable at 47%. The most substantial changes were observed in the population aged 75 years and older, with separations increasing by 89%, length of stay reducing by 35% and bed utilisation increasing by 23%. However, rates of bed utilisation (in relation to population) declined among older groups (10% decline in per capita use in population 75 years and older), but increased in the younger population (1% increase in per capita use in people younger than 65 years). Conclusion: Important trends in use of inpatient services were identified in this study. These trends are contrary to common perception. Ageing of the Australian population was not associated with an increase in the proportion of hospital beds used by older patients.

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The acid soils of the uplands of Southeast Asia have resisted intensive agricultural use for centuries. In recent decades, however, due to rapid population growth, escalating market demand for agricultural produce, and govemment policies for land development and settlement, the acid uplands have become the focus of more intensive land-use systems, placing greater demands on farmers and requiring the development and dissemination of improved practices for soil management. In order to develop appropriate soil management technologies and plan effective interventions to facilitate their adoption, it is important to understand the goals and circumstances of farmers in the acid uplands, the range of farming systems they have developed, and the variety of socio-economic factors and trends influencing the evolution of these farming systems. Building on Boserup's model of agrarian change, an evolutionary framework is developed and applied to five case studies: a long-fallow (shifting) cultivation system in Sarawak, Malaysia; a short-fallow system in South Kalimantan, Indonesia; a continuous cropping system in Bukidnon, Philippines; a tree crop (with intercropping) system in Southern Thailand; a livestock grazing system in Daclac, Vietnam. The framework provides a useful tool to interpret and categorise farmers' evolving soil management strategies and to plan more effective soil management research and interventions. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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1. Management decisions regarding invasive plants often have to be made quickly and in the face of fragmentary knowledge of their population dynamics. However, recommendations are commonly made on the basis of only a restricted set of parameters. Without addressing uncertainty and variability in model parameters we risk ineffective management, resulting in wasted resources and an escalating problem if early chances to control spread are missed. 2. Using available data for Pinus nigra in ungrazed and grazed grassland and shrubland in New Zealand, we parameterized a stage-structured spread model to calculate invasion wave speed, population growth rate and their sensitivities and elasticities to population parameters. Uncertainty distributions of parameters were used with the model to generate confidence intervals (CI) about the model predictions. 3. Ungrazed grassland environments were most vulnerable to invasion and the highest elasticities and sensitivities of invasion speed were to long-distance dispersal parameters. However, there was overlap between the elasticity and sensitivity CI on juvenile survival, seedling establishment and long-distance dispersal parameters, indicating overlap in their effects on invasion speed. 4. While elasticity of invasion speed to long-distance dispersal was highest in shrubland environments, there was overlap with the CI of elasticity to juvenile survival. In shrubland invasion speed was most sensitive to the probability of establishment, especially when establishment was low. In the grazed environment elasticity and sensitivity of invasion speed to the severity of grazing were consistently highest. Management recommendations based on elasticities and sensitivities depend on the vulnerability of the habitat. 5. Synthesis and applications. Despite considerable uncertainty in demography and dispersal, robust management recommendations emerged from the model. Proportional or absolute reductions in long-distance dispersal, juvenile survival and seedling establishment parameters have the potential to reduce wave speed substantially. Plantations of wind-dispersed invasive conifers should not be sited on exposed sites vulnerable to long-distance dispersal events, and trees in these sites should be removed. Invasion speed can also be reduced by removing seedlings, establishing competitive shrubs and grazing. Incorporating uncertainty into the modelling process increases our confidence in the wide applicability of the management strategies recommended here.

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Essential hypertension is one of the most common diseases in the Western world, affecting about 26.4% of the adult population, and it is increasing (1). Its causes are heterogeneous and include genetic and environmental factors (2), but several observations point to an important role of the kidney in its genesis (3). In addition to variations in tubular transport mechanisms that could, for example, affect salt handling, structural characteristics of the kidney might also contribute to hypertension. The burden of chronic kidney disease is also increasing worldwide, due to population growth, increasing longevity, and changing risk factors. Although single-cause models of disease are still widely promoted, multideterminant or multihit models that can accommodate multiple risk factors in an individual or in a population are probably more applicable (4,5). In such a framework, nephron endowment is one potential determinant of disease susceptibility. Some time ago, Brenner and colleagues (6,7) proposed that lower nephron numbers predispose both to essential hypertension and to renal disease. They also proposed that hypertension and progressive renal insufficiency might be initiated and accelerated by glomerular hypertrophy and intraglomerular hypertension that develops as nephron number is reduced (8). In this review, we summarize data from recent studies that shed more light on these hypotheses. The data supply a new twist to possible mechanisms of the Barker hypothesis, which proposes that intrauterine growth retardation predisposes to chronic disease in later life (9). The review describes how nephron number is estimated and its range and some determinants and morphologic correlates. It then considers possible causes of low nephron numbers. Finally, associations of hypertension and renal disease with reduced nephron numbers are considered, and some potential clinical implications are discussed.

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An expanding human population and associated demands for goods and services continues to exert an increasing pressure on ecological systems. Although the rate of expansion of agricultural lands has slowed since 1960, rapid deforestation still occurs in many tropical countries, including Colombia. However, the location and extent of deforestation and associated ecological impacts within tropical countries is often not well known. The primary aim of this study was to obtain an understanding of the spatial patterns of forest conversion for agricultural land uses in Colombia. We modeled native forest conversion in Colombia at regional and national-levels using logistic regression and classification trees. We investigated the impact of ignoring the regional variability of model parameters, and identified biophysical and socioeconomic factors that best explain the current spatial pattern and inter-regional variation in forest cover. We validated our predictions for the Amazon region using MODIS satellite imagery. The regional-level classification tree that accounted for regional heterogeneity had the greatest discrimination ability. Factors related to accessibility (distance to roads and towns) were related to the presence of forest cover, although this relationship varied regionally. In order to identify areas with a high risk of deforestation, we used predictions from the best model, refined by areas with rural population growth rates of > 2%. We ranked forest ecosystem types in terms of levels of threat of conversion. Our results provide useful inputs to planning for biodiversity conservation in Colombia, by identifying areas and ecosystem types that are vulnerable to deforestation. Several of the predicted deforestation hotspots coincide with areas that are outstanding in terms of biodiversity value.