The bias in reversing the Box-Cox transformation in time series forecasting: An empirical study based on neural networks

The Box-Cox transformation is a technique mostly utilized to turn the probabilistic distribution of a time series data into approximately normal. And this helps statistical and neural models to perform more accurate forecastings. However, it introduces a bias when the reversion of the transformation is conducted with the predicted data. The statistical methods to perform a bias-free reversion require, necessarily, the assumption of Gaussianity of the transformed data distribution, which is a rare event in real-world time series. So, the aim of this study was to provide an effective method of removing the bias when the reversion of the Box-Cox transformation is executed. Thus, the developed method is based on a focused time lagged feedforward neural network, which does not require any assumption about the transformed data distribution. Therefore, to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, numerical simulations were conducted and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error, the Theil Inequality Index and the Signal-to-Noise ratio of 20-step-ahead forecasts of 40 time series were compared, and the results obtained indicate that the proposed reversion method is valid and justifies new studies. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Combined active and semi-supervised learning using particle walking temporal dynamicscombined active and semi-supervised learning using particle walking temporal dynamics

Both Semi-Supervised Leaning and Active Learning are techniques used when unlabeled data is abundant, but the process of labeling them is expensive and/or time consuming. In this paper, those two machine learning techniques are combined into a single nature-inspired method. It features particles walking on a network built from the data set, using a unique random-greedy rule to select neighbors to visit. The particles, which have both competitive and cooperative behavior, are created on the network as the result of label queries. They may be created as the algorithm executes and only nodes affected by the new particles have to be updated. Therefore, it saves execution time compared to traditional active learning frameworks, in which the learning algorithm has to be executed several times. The data items to be queried are select based on information extracted from the nodes and particles temporal dynamics. Two different rules for queries are explored in this paper, one of them is based on querying by uncertainty approaches and the other is based on data and labeled nodes distribution. Each of them may perform better than the other according to some data sets peculiarities. Experimental results on some real-world data sets are provided, and the proposed method outperforms the semi-supervised learning method, from which it is derived, in all of them.

Comparação das técnicas semi-quantitativa e quantitativa nas infecções relacionadas a cateter em neonatos e determinação da resistência à oxacilina nos Staphylococcus spp

Study the semi-quantitative and quantitative technique in the diagnosis of catheter-related infections in newborns and to determine oxacillin resistance in Staphylococcus isolated. It was analyzed 353 catheter tips from 273 newborns in the Neonatal Unit of Hospital FMB. To confirm the diagnosis of infection, were analyzed the clinical data of newborns, the presence of at least one positive blood culture and growth of ≥ 1000 CFU/mL on quantitative culture and/or ³15 UFC on semiquantitative culture, with the same microorganism isolation (species and drug sensitivity) in blood culture and no other focus of infection except the catheter. The disk diffusion technique was used to check similarity of strains and resistance to oxacillin. Of the 353 tips analyzed, 39 were included in this study as the inclusion criteria. The semiquantitative culture was positive in 26 (66.7%) catheters and quantitative culture was positive in 24 (61.5%). Of 273 patients, 19 (6.9%) had a diagnosis of catheter-related bloodstream Infection (CR-BSI). Of the 19 episodes of CR-BSI, S. epidermidis was the predominant etiological agent (84.2%). The resistance to the antibiotic methicillin was found in 14 (73.7%) strains of Staphylococcus. The semiquantitative method was more sensitive (79%) compared with the quantitative method (63%). The use of antibiotics may have influenced the sensitivity of the quantitative method as the microorganisms present in the lumen are exposed to higher concentrations of antibiotics administered via the catheter

Estimation of Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Height and Distribution in Nova Avanhandava Reservoir (São Paulo State, Brazil) Using Bio-Optical Modeling

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Ser professor e a relação ensino-aprendizagem: uma contribuição piagetiana

Pós-graduação em Educação - FFC

Orientação semi-automática de uma sequência de pares de imagens frontais por fototriangulação a partir de fotocoordenadas extraídas pelo SIFT

Pós-graduação em Ciências Cartográficas - FCT

Morphological effects of neem (Azadirachta indica A. Juss) seed oil with known azadirachtin concentrations on the oocytes of semi-engorged Rhipicephalus sanguineus ticks (Acari: Ixodidae)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Particle competition and cooperation for semi-supervised learning with label noise

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Using ionic liquid combined with HPLC-DAD to analyze semi-permanent hair dyes in commercial formulations

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Percepções de professoras e professores sobre a violência que viveram na família e na escola: analisando a violência da escola

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Control of red-gum lerp psyllid with formulated mycoinsecticides under semi-field conditions

This study evaluated the potential use of commercial mycoinsecticide formulations against red-gum lerp psyllid Glycaspis brimblecombei Moore in semi-field conditions. Eucalypt seedlings infested with psyllid nymphs were sprayed with different formulations and two concentrations of each product. Conidial deposits were evaluated after spraying for control efficiency. The conidial deposit was affected by the pathogen species and by formulation types. Higher conidial deposits were associated with mycoinsecticide formulation concentrates of lower granulometry and oil dispersion. However, some products with low deposits of conidia were highly efficient against psyllid nymphs. The results showed that the use of entomopathogenic fungi is a promising alternative method for controlling the red-gum lerp psyllid.

Pseudomecânica: partículas de spins inteiros, semi-inteiros e fracionários

Pós-graduação em Física - IFT

A importância da mediação: a situação do professor mediador escolar e comunitário na Rede Estadual Paulista de Ensino

This study aims to analyze the implementation of mediation in the school environment of São Paulo State Education Network through the figure of Teacher School and Community Mediator (PMEC). Mediation arises, as an alternative and effective method for conflict resolution from existing interpersonal relationships at school. The methodology used was the exploratory and empirical research literature on the subject mediation and the analysis of the resolutions of the Secretariat of São Paulo State Education establishing the School Protection System (SPE) and made possible the performance of the PMEC within that environment. Authors like Bonafé-Schmitt (2010); Caetano, Freire and Ferreira (2009); Calcaterra (2002); Freire (2010); Jares (2002); Lederach (1996); Littlejohn and Domenici (1999); Morgado and Oliveira (2009); Torremorell (2008) and Vecchi and Greco (1999) were selected in order to provide greater familiarity with the subject mediation and conflict mediation later in the school environment. The concept of mediation, mediation templates and profiles of mediators will be explained as well as PMEC function features as regards the selection methods training main assisted cases, assignments that are stipulated by the guiding documents and what actually happens in daily practice verified the reports obtained through a semi-structured interview. Finally, we present the PMEC situation regarding the review by the leaders and attended school community and the acceptance of their work within that environment

A importância da mediação: a situação do professor mediador escolar e comunitário na Rede Estadual Paulista de Ensino

This study aims to analyze the implementation of mediation in the school environment of São Paulo State Education Network through the figure of Teacher School and Community Mediator (PMEC). Mediation arises, as an alternative and effective method for conflict resolution from existing interpersonal relationships at school. The methodology used was the exploratory and empirical research literature on the subject mediation and the analysis of the resolutions of the Secretariat of São Paulo State Education establishing the School Protection System (SPE) and made possible the performance of the PMEC within that environment. Authors like Bonafé-Schmitt (2010); Caetano, Freire and Ferreira (2009); Calcaterra (2002); Freire (2010); Jares (2002); Lederach (1996); Littlejohn and Domenici (1999); Morgado and Oliveira (2009); Torremorell (2008) and Vecchi and Greco (1999) were selected in order to provide greater familiarity with the subject mediation and conflict mediation later in the school environment. The concept of mediation, mediation templates and profiles of mediators will be explained as well as PMEC function features as regards the selection methods training main assisted cases, assignments that are stipulated by the guiding documents and what actually happens in daily practice verified the reports obtained through a semi-structured interview. Finally, we present the PMEC situation regarding the review by the leaders and attended school community and the acceptance of their work within that environment

Food Competition in a Semi-Free-Ranging Cebus apella Group

The competitive regime faced by individuals is fundamental to modelling the evolution of social organization. In this paper, we assess the relative importance of contest and scramble food competition on the social dynamics of a provisioned semi-free-ranging Cebus apella group (n=18). Individuals competed directly for provisioned and clumped foods. Effects of indirect competition were apparent with individuals foraging in different areas and with increased group dispersion during periods of low food abundance. We suggest that both forms of competition can act simultaneously and to some extent synergistically in their influence on social dynamics; the combination of social and ecological opportunities for competition and how those opportunities are exploited both influence the nature of the relationships within social groups of primates and underlie the evolved social structure. Copyright (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel