Survey of prenatal screening policies in Europe for structural malformations and chromosome anomalies, and their impact on detection and termination rates for neural tube defects and Down's syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: To 'map' the current (2004) state of prenatal screening in Europe. DESIGN: (i) Survey of country policies and (ii) analysis of data from EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) population-based congenital anomaly registers. SETTING: Europe. POPULATION: Survey of prenatal screening policies in 18 countries and 1.13 million births in 12 countries in 2002-04. METHODS: (i) Questionnaire on national screening policies and termination of pregnancy for fetal anomaly (TOPFA) laws in 2004. (ii) Analysis of data on prenatal detection and termination for Down's syndrome and neural tube defects (NTDs) using the EUROCAT database. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Existence of national prenatal screening policies, legal gestation limit for TOPFA, prenatal detection and termination rates for Down's syndrome and NTD. RESULTS: Ten of the 18 countries had a national country-wide policy for Down's syndrome screening and 14/18 for structural anomaly scanning. Sixty-eight percent of Down's syndrome cases (range 0-95%) were detected prenatally, of which 88% resulted in termination of pregnancy. Eighty-eight percent (range 25-94%) of cases of NTD were prenatally detected, of which 88% resulted in termination. Countries with a first-trimester screening policy had the highest proportion of prenatally diagnosed Down's syndrome cases. Countries with no official national Down's syndrome screening or structural anomaly scan policy had the lowest proportion of prenatally diagnosed Down's syndrome and NTD cases. Six of the 18 countries had a legal gestational age limit for TOPFA, and in two countries, termination of pregnancy was illegal at any gestation. CONCLUSIONS: There are large differences in screening policies between countries in Europe. These, as well as organisational and cultural factors, are associated with wide country variation in prenatal detection rates for Down's syndrome and NTD.

Waste management policies for industrial symbiosis development: case studies in European countries

Industrial symbiosis (IS) emerged as a self-organizing business strategy among firms that are willing to cooperate to improve their economic and environmental performance. The adoption of such cooperative strategies relates to increasing costs of waste management, most of which are driven by policy and legislative requirements. Development of IS depends on an enabling context of social, informational, technological, economical and political factors. The power to influence this context varies among the agents involved such as the government, businesses or coordinating entities. Governmental intervention, as manifested through policies, could influence a wider range of factors; and we believe this is an area which is under-researched. This paper aims to critically appraise the waste policy interventions from supra-national to sub-national levels of government. A case study methodology has been applied to four European countries i.e. Denmark, the UK, Portugal and Switzerland, in which IS emerged or is being fostered. The findings suggest that there are commonalities in policy instruments that may have led to an IS enabling context. The paper concludes with lessons learnt and recommendations on shaping the policy context for IS development.

Optimal stop-loss reinsurance: a dependence analysis

The stop-loss reinsurance is one of the most important reinsurance contracts in the insurance market. From the insurer point of view, it presents an interesting property: it is optimal if the criterion of minimizing the variance of the cost of the insurer is used. The aim of the paper is to contribute to the analysis of the stop-loss contract in one period from the point of view of the insurer and the reinsurer. Firstly, the influence of the parameters of the reinsurance contract on the correlation coefficient between the cost of the insurer and the cost of the reinsurer is studied. Secondly, the optimal stop-loss contract is obtained if the criterion used is the maximization of the joint survival probability of the insurer and the reinsurer in one period.

On optimal dividend strategies with deficit or incomplete information

Rapport de synthèse Cette thèse consiste en trois essais sur les stratégies optimales de dividendes. Chaque essai correspond à un chapitre. Les deux premiers essais ont été écrits en collaboration avec les Professeurs Hans Ulrich Gerber et Elias S. W. Shiu et ils ont été publiés; voir Gerber et al. (2006b) ainsi que Gerber et al. (2008). Le troisième essai a été écrit en collaboration avec le Professeur Hans Ulrich Gerber. Le problème des stratégies optimales de dividendes remonte à de Finetti (1957). Il se pose comme suit: considérant le surplus d'une société, déterminer la stratégie optimale de distribution des dividendes. Le critère utilisé consiste à maximiser la somme des dividendes escomptés versés aux actionnaires jusqu'à la ruine2 de la société. Depuis de Finetti (1957), le problème a pris plusieurs formes et a été résolu pour différents modèles. Dans le modèle classique de théorie de la ruine, le problème a été résolu par Gerber (1969) et plus récemment, en utilisant une autre approche, par Azcue and Muler (2005) ou Schmidli (2008). Dans le modèle classique, il y a un flux continu et constant d'entrées d'argent. Quant aux sorties d'argent, elles sont aléatoires. Elles suivent un processus à sauts, à savoir un processus de Poisson composé. Un exemple qui correspond bien à un tel modèle est la valeur du surplus d'une compagnie d'assurance pour lequel les entrées et les sorties sont respectivement les primes et les sinistres. Le premier graphique de la Figure 1 en illustre un exemple. Dans cette thèse, seules les stratégies de barrière sont considérées, c'est-à-dire quand le surplus dépasse le niveau b de la barrière, l'excédent est distribué aux actionnaires comme dividendes. Le deuxième graphique de la Figure 1 montre le même exemple du surplus quand une barrière de niveau b est introduite, et le troisième graphique de cette figure montre, quand à lui, les dividendes cumulés. Chapitre l: "Maximizing dividends without bankruptcy" Dans ce premier essai, les barrières optimales sont calculées pour différentes distributions du montant des sinistres selon deux critères: I) La barrière optimale est calculée en utilisant le critère usuel qui consiste à maximiser l'espérance des dividendes escomptés jusqu'à la ruine. II) La barrière optimale est calculée en utilisant le second critère qui consiste, quant à lui, à maximiser l'espérance de la différence entre les dividendes escomptés jusqu'à la ruine et le déficit au moment de la ruine. Cet essai est inspiré par Dickson and Waters (2004), dont l'idée est de faire supporter aux actionnaires le déficit au moment de la ruine. Ceci est d'autant plus vrai dans le cas d'une compagnie d'assurance dont la ruine doit être évitée. Dans l'exemple de la Figure 1, le déficit au moment de la ruine est noté R. Des exemples numériques nous permettent de comparer le niveau des barrières optimales dans les situations I et II. Cette idée, d'ajouter une pénalité au moment de la ruine, a été généralisée dans Gerber et al. (2006a). Chapitre 2: "Methods for estimating the optimal dividend barrier and the probability of ruin" Dans ce second essai, du fait qu'en pratique on n'a jamais toute l'information nécessaire sur la distribution du montant des sinistres, on suppose que seuls les premiers moments de cette fonction sont connus. Cet essai développe et examine des méthodes qui permettent d'approximer, dans cette situation, le niveau de la barrière optimale, selon le critère usuel (cas I ci-dessus). Les approximations "de Vylder" et "diffusion" sont expliquées et examinées: Certaines de ces approximations utilisent deux, trois ou quatre des premiers moments. Des exemples numériques nous permettent de comparer les approximations du niveau de la barrière optimale, non seulement avec les valeurs exactes mais également entre elles. Chapitre 3: "Optimal dividends with incomplete information" Dans ce troisième et dernier essai, on s'intéresse à nouveau aux méthodes d'approximation du niveau de la barrière optimale quand seuls les premiers moments de la distribution du montant des sauts sont connus. Cette fois, on considère le modèle dual. Comme pour le modèle classique, dans un sens il y a un flux continu et dans l'autre un processus à sauts. A l'inverse du modèle classique, les gains suivent un processus de Poisson composé et les pertes sont constantes et continues; voir la Figure 2. Un tel modèle conviendrait pour une caisse de pension ou une société qui se spécialise dans les découvertes ou inventions. Ainsi, tant les approximations "de Vylder" et "diffusion" que les nouvelles approximations "gamma" et "gamma process" sont expliquées et analysées. Ces nouvelles approximations semblent donner de meilleurs résultats dans certains cas.

Handbook for the design of intercultural policies: summary of the original Spanish version

Local governments need minimum common criteria to manage the social dynamics of diversity. This Handbook defends the strategy of interculturality as a public political approach, based on a way to interpret interculturality as a positive resource, as a public cultural and a collective good. It is an approach that promotes the equitative interaction as a way to generate a cohesive common public space. This Handbook provides the reader with the conceptual and practical instruments to help (and inspire) those territories which would like to integrate interculturality as an urban project.It aims to serve as a ground for discussion to jointly work in local administrations and other government levels, fororganizations and institutions, as well as for cultural, political and citizens collectives. Results are presented asan action by the Red de Ciudades Interculturales (RECI), within the Intercultural Cities framework by the Councilof Europe, with the collaboration of Obra Social "La Caixa".

Optimal use of SSR markers for varietal identification of upland cotton

Abstract: The objective of this work was to identify polymorphic simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers for varietal identification of cotton and evaluation of the genetic distance among the varieties. Initially, 92 SSR markers were genotyped in 20 Brazilian cotton cultivars. Of this total, 38 loci were polymorphic, two of which were amplified by one primer pair; the mean number of alleles per locus was 2.2. The values of polymorphic information content (PIC) and discrimination power (DP) were, on average, 0.374 and 0.433, respectively. The mean genetic distance was 0.397 (minimum of 0.092 and maximum of 0.641). A panel of 96 varieties originating from different regions of the world was assessed by 21 polymorphic loci derived from 17 selected primer pairs. Among these varieties, the mean genetic distance was 0.387 (minimum of 0 and maximum of 0.786). The dendrograms generated by the unweighted pair group method with arithmetic average (UPGMA) did not reflect the regions of Brazil (20 genotypes) or around the world (96 genotypes), where the varieties or lines were selected. Bootstrap resampling shows that genotype identification is viable with 19 loci. The polymorphic markers evaluated are useful to perform varietal identification in a large panel of cotton varieties and may be applied in studies of the species diversity.

The effects of regional educational policies on school failure in Spain

This paper presents a regional analysis of the effects of educational policies implemented in Spain between 1992 and 2003, focusing specifically on school failure rates. We consider the impact of expenditure per pupil, class size, and pupil-teacher ratio on dropout rates at the end of compulsory education and on the proportion of early school-leavers in the 18-24 year age group. Our results indicate that higher levels of educational expenditure per pupil and lower class sizes and pupil-teacher ratios reduce rates of dropout and early school-leaving (although class-size is not always significant). However, the magnitude of the effects of these variables is small at the average level.