994 resultados para Normal Accident Theory


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This paper reports on the analysis of tidal breathing patterns measured during noninvasive forced oscillation lung function tests in six individual groups. The three adult groups were healthy, with prediagnosed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and with prediagnosed kyphoscoliosis, respectively. The three children groups were healthy, with prediagnosed asthma, and with prediagnosed cystic fibrosis, respectively. The analysis is applied to the pressure-volume curves and the pseudophase-plane loop by means of the box-counting method, which gives a measure of the area within each loop. The objective was to verify if there exists a link between the area of the loops, power-law patterns, and alterations in the respiratory structure with disease. We obtained statistically significant variations between the data sets corresponding to the six groups of patients, showing also the existence of power-law patterns. Our findings support the idea that the respiratory system changes with disease in terms of airway geometry and tissue parameters, leading, in turn, to variations in the fractal dimension of the respiratory tree and its dynamics.

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The expression of iron regulated proteins (IRPs) in vitro has been obtained in the past by adding iron chelators to the culture after bacterial growth, in the presence of an organic iron source. We have investigated aspects concerning full expression of the meningococcal IRPs during normal growth, in defined conditions using Catlin medium, Mueller Hinton and Tryptic Soy Broth (TSB). The expression of IRPs varied between different strains with respect to Ethylenediamine Di-ortho-Hidroxy-phenyl-acetic acid (EDDA) concentrations, and according to culture medium, and also between different lots of TSB. For each strain, a specific set of IRPs were expressed and higher EDDA concentrations, or addition of glucose, or use of different culture media did not resulted in a differential expression of IRPs. We were not able to grow N. meningitidis under normal growth conditions using Desferal. We looked for a good yield of outer membrane vesicles (OMVs) expressing IRPs in iron-deficient Catlin medium containing EDDA and Hemin. Culture for 32 h at 30ºC after growing for 16 h at 37ºC supported good bacterial growth. Bacterial lysis was noted after additional 24 h at 30ºC. Approximately 4 times more OMVs was recoverable from a culture supernatant after 24 h at 30ºC than from the cells after 16 h at 37ºC. The IRP were as well expressed in OMVs from culture supernatant obtained after 24 h at 30ºC as from the cells after 16 h at 37ºC.

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Over the last fifty years mobility practices have changed dramatically, improving the way travel takes place, the time it takes but also on matters like road safety and prevention. High mortality caused by high accident levels has reached untenable levels. But the research into road mortality stayed limited to comparative statistical exercises which go no further than defining accident types. In terms of sharing information and mapping accidents, little progress has been mad, aside from the normal publication of figures, either through simplistic tables or web pages. With considerable technological advances on geographical information technologies, research and development stayed rather static with only a few good examples on dynamic mapping. The use of Global Positioning System (GPS) devices as normal equipments on automobile industry resulted in a more dynamic mobility patterns but also with higher degrees of uncertainty on road traffic. This paper describes a road accident georeferencing project for the Lisbon District involving fatalities and serious injuries during 2007. In the initial phase, individual information summaries were compiled giving information on accidents and its majour characteristics, collected by the security forces: the Public Safety Police Force (Polícia de Segurança Pública - PSP) and the National Guard (Guarda Nacional Republicana - GNR). The Google Earth platform was used to georeference the information in order to inform the public and the authorities of the accident locations, the nature of the location, and the causes and consequences of the accidents. This paper also gives future insights about augmented reality technologies, considered crucial to advances to road safety and prevention studies. At the end, this exercise could be considered a success because of numerous consequences, as for stakeholders who decide what to do but also for the public awareness to the problem of road mortality.

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Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

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Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for degree of Master in Statistics and Information Management.

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Complex industrial plants exhibit multiple interactions among smaller parts and with human operators. Failure in one part can propagate across subsystem boundaries causing a serious disaster. This paper analyzes the industrial accident data series in the perspective of dynamical systems. First, we process real world data and show that the statistics of the number of fatalities reveal features that are well described by power law (PL) distributions. For early years, the data reveal double PL behavior, while, for more recent time periods, a single PL fits better into the experimental data. Second, we analyze the entropy of the data series statistics over time. Third, we use the Kullback–Leibler divergence to compare the empirical data and multidimensional scaling (MDS) techniques for data analysis and visualization. Entropy-based analysis is adopted to assess complexity, having the advantage of yielding a single parameter to express relationships between the data. The classical and the generalized (fractional) entropy and Kullback–Leibler divergence are used. The generalized measures allow a clear identification of patterns embedded in the data.

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Fungi have been considered a potential source of natural anticancer drugs. However, studies on these organisms have mainly focused on compounds present in the sporocarp and mycelium. The aim of this study was to assess the anticancer potential of fungal spores using a bioassay-guided fractionation with cancer and normal cell lines. Crude extracts from spores of the basidiomycetous fungus Pisolithus tinctorius were prepared using five solvents/solvent mixtures in order to select the most effective crude extraction procedure. A dichloromethane/methanol (DCM/MeOH) mixture was found to produce the highest extraction yield, and this extract was fractionated into 11 fractions. Crude extracts and fractions were assayed for cytotoxicity in the human osteocarcinoma cell line MG63, the human breast carcinoma cell line T47D, the human colon adenocarcinoma cell line RKO, and the normal human brain capillary endothelial cell line hCMEC/D3. Cytotoxicity was assessed by the 3-(4,5-dimethyl-2-thiazolyl)-2,5-diphenyl-2H-tetrazolium bromide (MTT) reduction assay. The results showed a reduction in cancer cell viability of approximately 95% with 4 of 11 fractions without a significant reduction in viability of hCMEC/D3 cells. Data demonstrated that spores of P. tinctorius might serve as an interesting source of compounds with potential anticancer properties.

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Hepatitis C virus infection evolves progressively persisting in the majority of patients (85%). Most patients have high ALT (alanine aminotransferase) levels and approximately 25% normal ALT. The latter are usually female and there is no association between genotype and severity of hepatic lesion. Histologic analysis usually shows small lesion and absence or low amount of fibrosis, despite cirrhosis having been reported. Aiming at assessing prevalence, demographic, genotypical and anatomopathological characteristics in patients with normal ALT levels, we have carried out a study of 68 chronic hepatitis C patients between January 1997 and April 2000. There was a prevalence of 13.8% chronic hepatitis C patients with normal ALT levels, 45.6% of which were male and 54.4% female, the mean age being 38 +/- 13 years. We found a predominance of genotype 1 in 84.7% of the patients, genotype 2 in 6.8% and genotype 3 in 10.7%. In 52.9% of the cases liver biopsies revealed liver reaction, periportal activity score 0-1 was observed in 85.3% of the patients and score 2-4 was seen in 14.7%. Structural activity score 0-1 was seen in 73.5% of the patients and score 2-4 in 26.5% of them. Periportal activity > 2 and structural activity > 1 was seen in 29%, but steatosis was not seen in 73.5%. Our results suggest the need to revisit for liver biopsy practice in patients with Chronic Hepatitis C and normal transaminases.

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Etnográfica, 15 (2): 313-336

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Smart Grids (SGs) have emerged as the new paradigm for power system operation and management, being designed to include large amounts of distributed energy resources. This new paradigm requires new Energy Resource Management (ERM) methodologies considering different operation strategies and the existence of new management players such as several types of aggregators. This paper proposes a methodology to facilitate the coalition between distributed generation units originating Virtual Power Players (VPP) considering a game theory approach. The proposed approach consists in the analysis of the classifications that were attributed by each VPP to the distributed generation units, as well as in the analysis of the previous established contracts by each player. The proposed classification model is based in fourteen parameters including technical, economical and behavioural ones. Depending of the VPP strategies, size and goals, each parameter has different importance. VPP can also manage other type of energy resources, like storage units, electric vehicles, demand response programs or even parts of the MV and LV distribution network. A case study with twelve VPPs with different characteristics and one hundred and fifty real distributed generation units is included in the paper.

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This paper presents a decision support methodology for electricity market players’ bilateral contract negotiations. The proposed model is based on the application of game theory, using artificial intelligence to enhance decision support method’s adaptive features. This model is integrated in AiD-EM (Adaptive Decision Support for Electricity Markets Negotiations), a multi-agent system that provides electricity market players with strategic behavior capabilities to improve their outcomes from energy contracts’ negotiations. Although a diversity of tools that enable the study and simulation of electricity markets has emerged during the past few years, these are mostly directed to the analysis of market models and power systems’ technical constraints, making them suitable tools to support decisions of market operators and regulators. However, the equally important support of market negotiating players’ decisions is being highly neglected. The proposed model contributes to overcome the existing gap concerning effective and realistic decision support for electricity market negotiating entities. The proposed method is validated by realistic electricity market simulations using real data from the Iberian market operator—MIBEL. Results show that the proposed adaptive decision support features enable electricity market players to improve their outcomes from bilateral contracts’ negotiations.

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PURPOSE: 1. Identify differences in optic nerve sheath diameter (ONSD) as an indirect measure of intracranial pressure (ICP) in glaucoma patients and a healthy population. 2. Identify variables that may correlate with ONSD in primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) and normal tension glaucoma (NTG) patients. METHODS: Patients with NTG (n = 46) and POAG (n = 61), and healthy controls (n = 42) underwent B-scan ultrasound measurement of ONSD by an observer masked to the patient diagnosis. Intraocular pressure (IOP) was measured in all groups, with additional central corneal thickness (CCT) and visual field defect measurements in glaucomatous patients. Only one eye per patient was selected. Kruskal-Wallis or Mann-Whitney were used to compare the different variables between the diagnostic groups. Spearman correlations were used to explore relationships among these variables. RESULTS: ONSD was not significantly different between healthy, NTG and POAG patients (6.09 ± 0.78, 6.03 ± 0.69, and 5.71 ± 0.83 respectively; p = 0.08). Visual field damage and CCT were not correlated with ONSD in either of the glaucoma groups (POAG, p = 0.31 and 0.44; NTG, p = 0.48 and 0.90 respectively). However, ONSD did correlate with IOP in NTG patients (r = 0.53, p < 0.001), while it did not in POAG patients and healthy controls (p = 0.86, p = 0.46 respectively). Patient's age did not relate to ONSD in any of the groups (p > 0.25 in all groups). CONCLUSIONS: Indirect measurements of ICP by ultrasound assessment of the ONSD may provide further insights into the retrolaminar pressure component in glaucoma. The correlation of ONSD with IOP solely in NTG patients suggests that the translaminar pressure gradient may be of particular importance in this type of glaucoma.

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There is no complete overview or discussion of the literature of the economics of federalism and fiscal decentralization, even though scholarly interest in the topic has been increasing significantly over recent years. This paper provides a general, brief but comprehensive overview of the main insights from the literature on fiscal federalism and decentralization. In doing so, literature on fiscal federalism and decentralization is grouped into two main approaches: “first generation of theories” and “second generation of theories”.