Interaction strengths and net effects in food web models

Understanding how dynamic ecological communities respond to anthropogenic drivers of change such as habitat loss and fragmentation, climate change and the introduction of alien species requires that there is a theoretical framework able to predict community dynamics. At present there is a lack of empirical data that can be used to inform and test predictive models, which means that much of our knowledge regarding the response of ecological communities to perturbations is obtained from theoretical analyses and simulations. This thesis is composed of two strands of research: an empirical experiment conducted to inform the scaling of intraspecific and interspecific interaction strengths in a three species food chain and a series of theoretical analyses on the changes to equilibrium biomass abundances following press perturbations. The empirical experiment is a consequence of the difficulties faced when parameterising the intraspecific interaction strengths in a Lotka-Volterra model. A modification of the dynamic index is used alongside the original dynamic index to estimate intraspecific interactions and interspecific interaction strengths in a three species food. The theoretical analyses focused on the effect of press perturbations to focal species on the equilibrium biomass densities of all species in the community; these perturbations allow for the quantification of a species total net effect. It was found that there is a strong and consistent positive relationship between a species body size and its total net effect for a set of 97 synthetic food webs and also for the Ythan Estuary and Tuesday Lake food webs (empirically described food webs). It is shown that ecological constraints (due to allometric scaling) on the magnitude of entries in the community matrix cause the patterns observed in the inverse community matrix and thus explain the relationship between a species body mass and its total net effect in a community.

Latest development of the combinatorial model of nuclear level densities

The combinatorial model of nuclear level densities has now reached a level of accuracy comparable to that of the best global analytical expressions without suffering from the limits imposed by the statistical hypothesis on which the latter expressions rely. In particular, it provides, naturally, non-Gaussian spin distribution as well as non-equipartition of parities which are known to have an impact on cross section predictions at low energies [1, 2, 3]. Our previous global models developed in Refs. [1, 2] suffered from deficiencies, in particular in the way the collective effects - both vibrational and rotational - were treated. We have recently improved this treatment using simultaneously the single-particle levels and collective properties predicted by a newly derived Gogny interaction [4], therefore enabling a microscopic description of energy-dependent shell, pairing and deformation effects. In addition for deformed nuclei, the transition to sphericity is coherently taken into account on the basis of a temperature-dependent Hartree-Fock calculation which provides at each temperature the structure properties needed to build the level densities. This new method is described and shown to give promising results with respect to available experimental data.

Selective enhancement of donor hematopoietic cell engraftment by the CXCR4 antagonist AMD3100 in a mouse transplantation model.

The interaction between stromal cell-derived factor-1 (SDF-1) with CXCR4 chemokine receptors plays an important role in hematopoiesis following hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. We examined the efficacy of post transplant administration of a specific CXCR4 antagonist (AMD3100) in improving animal survival and in enhancing donor hematopoietic cell engraftment using a congeneic mouse transplantation model. AMD3100 was administered subcutaneously at 5 mg/kg body weight 3 times a week beginning at day +2 post-transplant. Post-transplant administration of AMD3100 significantly improves animal survival. AMD3100 reduces pro-inflammatory cytokine/chemokine production. Furthermore, post transplant administration of AMD3100 selectively enhances donor cell engraftment and promotes recovery of all donor cell lineages (myeloid cells, T and B lymphocytes, erythrocytes and platelets). This enhancement results from a combined effect of increased marrow niche availability and greater cell division induced by AMD3100. Our studies shed new lights into the biological roles of SDF-1/CXCR4 interaction in hematopoietic stem cell engraftment following transplantation and in transplant-related mortality. Our results indicate that AMD3100 provides a novel approach for enhancing hematological recovery following transplantation, and will likely benefit patients undergoing transplantation.

An evaluation of remifentanil-sevoflurane response surface models in patients emerging from anesthesia: model improvement using effect-site sevoflurane concentrations.

INTRODUCTION: We previously reported models that characterized the synergistic interaction between remifentanil and sevoflurane in blunting responses to verbal and painful stimuli. This preliminary study evaluated the ability of these models to predict a return of responsiveness during emergence from anesthesia and a response to tibial pressure when patients required analgesics in the recovery room. We hypothesized that model predictions would be consistent with observed responses. We also hypothesized that under non-steady-state conditions, accounting for the lag time between sevoflurane effect-site concentration (Ce) and end-tidal (ET) concentration would improve predictions. METHODS: Twenty patients received a sevoflurane, remifentanil, and fentanyl anesthetic. Two model predictions of responsiveness were recorded at emergence: an ET-based and a Ce-based prediction. Similarly, 2 predictions of a response to noxious stimuli were recorded when patients first required analgesics in the recovery room. Model predictions were compared with observations with graphical and temporal analyses. RESULTS: While patients were anesthetized, model predictions indicated a high likelihood that patients would be unresponsive (> or = 99%). However, after termination of the anesthetic, models exhibited a wide range of predictions at emergence (1%-97%). Although wide, the Ce-based predictions of responsiveness were better distributed over a percentage ranking of observations than the ET-based predictions. For the ET-based model, 45% of the patients awoke within 2 min of the 50% model predicted probability of unresponsiveness and 65% awoke within 4 min. For the Ce-based model, 45% of the patients awoke within 1 min of the 50% model predicted probability of unresponsiveness and 85% awoke within 3.2 min. Predictions of a response to a painful stimulus in the recovery room were similar for the Ce- and ET-based models. DISCUSSION: Results confirmed, in part, our study hypothesis; accounting for the lag time between Ce and ET sevoflurane concentrations improved model predictions of responsiveness but had no effect on predicting a response to a noxious stimulus in the recovery room. These models may be useful in predicting events of clinical interest but large-scale evaluations with numerous patients are needed to better characterize model performance.

The numerical simulation of fire spread within a compartment using an integrated gas and solid phase combustion model

An integrated fire spread model is presented in this study including several sub-models representing different phenomena of gaseous and solid combustion. The integrated model comprises of the following sub-models: a gaseous combustion model, a thermal radiation model that includes the effects of soot, and a pyrolysis model for charring combustible solids. The interaction of the gaseous and solid phases are linked together through the boundary conditions of the governing equations for the flow domain and the solid region respectively. The integrated model is used to simulate a fire spread experiment conducted in a half-scale test compartment. Good qualitative and reasonable quantitative agreement is achieved between the experiment and numerical predictions.

Distributed belief revision as applied within a descriptive model of jury deliberations

Belief revision is a well-research topic within AI. We argue that the new model of distributed belief revision as discussed here is suitable for general modelling of judicial decision making, along with extant approach as known from jury research. The new approach to belief revision is of general interest, whenever attitudes to information are to be simulated within a multi-agent environment with agents holding local beliefs yet by interaction with, and influencing, other agents who are deliberating collectively. In the approach proposed, it's the entire group of agents, not an external supervisor, who integrate the different opinions. This is achieved through an election mechanism, The principle of "priority to the incoming information" as known from AI models of belief revision are problematic, when applied to factfinding by a jury. The present approach incorporates a computable model for local belief revision, such that a principle of recoverability is adopted. By this principle, any previously held belief must belong to the current cognitive state if consistent with it. For the purposes of jury simulation such a model calls for refinement. Yet we claim, it constitutes a valid basis for an open system where other AI functionalities (or outer stiumuli) could attempt to handle other aspects of the deliberation which are more specifi to legal narrative, to argumentation in court, and then to the debate among the jurors.

Dynamic fluid–structure interaction using finite volume unstructured mesh procedures

A three-dimensional finite volume, unstructured mesh (FV-UM) method for dynamic fluid–structure interaction (DFSI) is described. Fluid structure interaction, as applied to flexible structures, has wide application in diverse areas such as flutter in aircraft, wind response of buildings, flows in elastic pipes and blood vessels. It involves the coupling of fluid flow and structural mechanics, two fields that are conventionally modelled using two dissimilar methods, thus a single comprehensive computational model of both phenomena is a considerable challenge. Until recently work in this area focused on one phenomenon and represented the behaviour of the other more simply. More recently, strategies for solving the full coupling between the fluid and solid mechanics behaviour have been developed. A key contribution has been made by Farhat et al. [Int. J. Numer. Meth. Fluids 21 (1995) 807] employing FV-UM methods for solving the Euler flow equations and a conventional finite element method for the elastic solid mechanics and the spring based mesh procedure of Batina [AIAA paper 0115, 1989] for mesh movement. In this paper, we describe an approach which broadly exploits the three field strategy described by Farhat for fluid flow, structural dynamics and mesh movement but, in the context of DFSI, contains a number of novel features: • a single mesh covering the entire domain, • a Navier–Stokes flow, • a single FV-UM discretisation approach for both the flow and solid mechanics procedures, • an implicit predictor–corrector version of the Newmark algorithm, • a single code embedding the whole strategy.

Details of an integrated approach to three-dimensional dynamic fluid structure interaction

Fluid structure interaction, as applied to flexible structures, has wide application in diverse areas such as flutter in aircraft, wind response of buildings, flows in elastic pipes and blood vessels. Numerical modelling of dynamic fluid-structure interaction (DFSI) involves the coupling of fluid flow and structural mechanics, two fields that are conventionally modelled using two dissimilar methods, thus a single comprehensive computational model of both phenomena is a considerable challenge and until recently work in this area focused on one phenomenon and represented the behaviour of the other more simply. A single, finite volume unstructured mesh (FV-UM) spatial discretisation method has been employed on a single mesh for the entire domain. The Navier Stokes equations for fluid flow are solved using a SIMPLE type procedure and the Newmark b algorithm is employed for solving the dynamic equilibrium equations for linear elastic solid mechanics and mesh movement is achieved using a spring based mesh procedure for dynamic mesh movement. In the paper we describe a number of additional computation issues for the efficient and accurate modelling of three-dimensional, dynamic fluid-structure interaction problems.

A finite volume unstructured mesh approach to dynamic fluid–structure interaction: an assessment of the challenge of predicting the onset of flutter

Computational modelling of dynamic fluid–structure interaction (DFSI) is a considerable challenge. Our approach to this class of problems involves the use of a single software framework for all the phenomena involved, employing finite volume methods on unstructured meshes in three dimensions. This method enables time and space accurate calculations in a consistent manner. One key application of DFSI simulation is the analysis of the onset of flutter in aircraft wings, where the work of Yates et al. [Measured and Calculated Subsonic and Transonic Flutter Characteristics of a 45° degree Sweptback Wing Planform in Air and Freon-12 in the Langley Transonic Dynamic Tunnel. NASA Technical Note D-1616, 1963] on the AGARD 445.6 wing planform still provides the most comprehensive benchmark data available. This paper presents the results of a significant effort to model the onset of flutter for the AGARD 445.6 wing planform geometry. A series of key issues needs to be addressed for this computational approach. • The advantage of using a single mesh, in order to eliminate numerical problems when applying boundary conditions at the fluid-structure interface, is counteracted by the challenge of generating a suitably high quality mesh in both the fluid and structural domains. • The computational effort for this DFSI procedure, in terms of run time and memory requirements, is very significant. Practical simulations require even finer meshes and shorter time steps, requiring parallel implementation for operation on large, high performance parallel systems. • The consistency and completeness of the AGARD data in the public domain is inadequate for use in the validation of DFSI codes when predicting the onset of flutter.

A generic time and space accurate numerical approach to closely coupled fluid-structure interaction problems

Fluid structure interaction, as applied to flexible structures, has wide application in diverse areas such as flutter in aircraft, flow in elastic pipes and blood vessels and extrusion of metals through dies. However a comprehensive computational model of these multi-physics phenomena is a considerable challenge. Until recently work in this area focused on one phenomenon and represented the behaviour of the other more simply even to the extent in metal forming, for example, that the deformation of the die is totally ignored. More recently, strategies for solving the full coupling between the fluid and soild mechanics behaviour have developed. Conventionally, the computational modelling of fluid structure interaction is problematical since computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is solved using finite volume (FV) methods and computational structural mechanics (CSM) is based entirely on finite element (FE) methods. In the past the concurrent, but rather disparate, development paths for the finite element and finite volume methods have resulted in numerical software tools for CFD and CSM that are different in almost every respect. Hence, progress is frustrated in modelling the emerging multi-physics problem of fluid structure interaction in a consistent manner. Unless the fluid-structure coupling is either one way, very weak or both, transferring and filtering data from one mesh and solution procedure to another may lead to significant problems in computational convergence. Using a novel three phase technique the full interaction between the fluid and the dynamic structural response are represented. The procedure is demonstrated on some challenging applications in complex three dimensional geometries involving aircraft flutter, metal forming and blood flow in arteries.

Simulating the interaction of cabin crew with passengers during aircraft emergency evacuation conditions

In this paper we briefly describe new modelling capabilities within the airEXODUS evacuation model. These new capabilities involve the explicit ability to simulate the interaction of crew with passengers in managing evacuation situations

Representing the influence of signage on evacuation behavior within an evacuation model

Occupant interaction with signage systems is being introduced into evacuation simulations through the newly developed concept of the Visibility Catchment Area or VCA. In this article, we describe the concept of VCA and how it has been extended to incorporate the presence of physical obstructions and termination distance. The VCA concept is then linked to a prototype behavior model intended to represent the occupant's interaction with the signage system. The functionality and performance of the newly developed model is then demonstrated through the simulation of various evacuation scenarios within a hypothetical supermarket layout

Time dependent electric, magnetic and hydrodynamic interaction in aluminium electrolysis cells

The waves in commercial cells for electrolytic aluminium production originate at the interface between the liquid aluminium and electrolyte, but their effect can spread into the surrounding busbar network as electric current perturbation, and the total magnetic field acquires a time dependent component. The presented model for the wave development accounts for the nonuniform electric current distribution at the cathode and the whole network of the surrounding busbars. The magnetic field is computed for the continuous current in the fluid zones, all busbars and the ferromagnetic construction elements. When the electric current and the associated magnetic field are computed according to the actual electrical circuit and updated for all times, the instability growth rate is significantly affected. The presented numerical model for the wave and electromagnetic interaction demonstrates how different physical coupling factors are affecting the wave development in the electrolysis cells. These small amplitude self-sustained interface oscillations are damped in the presence of intense turbulent viscosity created by the horizontal circulation velocity field. Additionally, the horizontal circulation vortices create a pressure gradient contributing to the deformation of the interface. Instructive examples for the 500 kA demonstration cell are presented.

Simulating the interaction of occupants with signage systems

This paper describes the introduction of chained signage systems into evacuation simulation models. Signage systems are widely used in buildings to provide information for wayfinding, thereby providing exiting information during emergencies and assisting in navigation during normal circulation of pedestrians. Recently a system was developed to introduce simple signs into egress models. The system, known as Visibility Catchment Area or VCA, allowed similated agents to interact with signs which point directly to an exit and signs which are located directly above the exit. However, this approach was not able to represent the more general situation of a sign netwokr within an arbitrarily complex building. In this paper we extend the method to include chained signage systems which provides simulated agents that are unfamiliar with the structure a means by which to navigate to an emergency exit. The model includes the associated navigation behaviours exhibited by occupants that rely on a signage system for navigation including: Searching behaviours, Backtracking behaviours, Lost behaviours and Communication behaviours. The new features are demonstrated through a series of demonstration cases and are shown to produce plausible results.

A Phase-field Model for Computer Simulation of Lamellar Structure Formation in y-TiAI

In the present paper, a phase-field model is developed to simulate the formation and evolution of lamellar microstructure in γ-TiAl alloys. The mechanism of formation of TiAl lamellae proposed by Denquin and Naka is incorporated into the model. The model describes the formation and evolution of the face-centered cubic (fcc) stacking lamellar zone followed by the subsequent appearance and growth of the γ-phase, involving both the chemical composition change by atom transfer and the ordering of the fcc lattice. The thermodynamics of the model system and the interaction between the displacive and diffusional transformations are described by a non-equilibrium free energy formulated as a function of concentration and structural order parameter fields. The long-range elastic interactions, arising from the lattice misfit between the α, fcc (A1) and the various orientation variants of the γ-phase are taken into account by incorporating of the elastic strain energy into the total free energy. Simulation studies based on the model successfully predicted some essential features of the lamellar structure. It is found that the formation and evolution of the lamellar structure are predominantly controlled by the minimization of the elastic energy of the interfaces between the different fcc stacking groups, low-symmetry product phase γ and the high-symmetry α-phase, as well as between the various orientation variants of the product phase.