Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters

This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our empirical work. Given the relatively short data span of the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the need to control for many explanatory variables, we use dynamic model averaging in order to ensure a parsimonious econometric speci cation. We use both regression-based and VAR-based methods. We find no support for the backward looking behavior embedded in the Neo-classical Phillips curve. Much more support is found for the forward looking behavior of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but most of this support is found after the beginning of the financial crisis.

Dimensionality of the Rosenberg self-esteem scale and its relationships with the three- and five-factor personality models

The authors investigated the dimensionality of the French version of the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (RSES; Rosenberg, 1965) using confirmatory factor analysis. We tested models of 1 or 2 factors. Results suggest the RSES is a 1-dimensional scale with 3 highly correlated items. Comparison with the Revised NEO-Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R; Costa, McCrae, & Rolland, 1998) demonstrated that Neuroticism correlated strongly and Extraversion and Conscientiousness moderately with the RSES. Depression accounted for 47% of the variance of the RSES. Other NEO-PI-R facets were also moderately related with self-esteem.

Gene duplication and neofunctionalization: POLR3G and POLR3GL.

RNA polymerase III (Pol III) occurs in two versions, one containing the POLR3G subunit and the other the closely related POLR3GL subunit. It is not clear whether these two Pol III forms have the same function, in particular whether they recognize the same target genes. We show that the POLR3G and POLR3GL genes arose from a DNA-based gene duplication, probably in a common ancestor of vertebrates. POLR3G- as well as POLR3GL-containing Pol III are present in cultured cell lines and in normal mouse liver, although the relative amounts of the two forms vary, with the POLR3G-containing Pol III relatively more abundant in dividing cells. Genome-wide chromatin immunoprecipitations followed by high-throughput sequencing (ChIP-seq) reveal that both forms of Pol III occupy the same target genes, in very constant proportions within one cell line, suggesting that the two forms of Pol III have a similar function with regard to specificity for target genes. In contrast, the POLR3G promoter-not the POLR3GL promoter-binds the transcription factor MYC, as do all other promoters of genes encoding Pol III subunits. Thus, the POLR3G/POLR3GL duplication did not lead to neo-functionalization of the gene product (at least with regard to target gene specificity) but rather to neo-functionalization of the transcription units, which acquired different mechanisms of regulation, thus likely affording greater regulation potential to the cell.

Personality traits and behavioural and psychological symptoms in patients with mild cognitive impairment.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Both personality changes and behavioural and psychological symptoms (BPS) may be associated with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in later life and help identify incipient dementia. We wished to investigate the links between personality and BPS in MCI. METHOD: We studied premorbid personality traits as estimated 5 years back and their changes in 83 control subjects and 52 MCI patients using the revised NEO Personality Inventory for the Five-Factor Model completed by a proxy. Information on BPS was obtained using the Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI). Analyses were controlled for current depression and anxiety. RESULTS: Premorbid neuroticism and openness to experience were associated with the total NPI score. The changes in neuroticism, extraversion, openness to experiences, and conscientiousness were associated with apathy and affective symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Personality changes and BPS occur in MCI. The occurrence of affective BPS and apathy is associated with both premorbid personality traits and their changes.

‘Right Back Where We Started From’: From ‘The Classics’ To Keynes, And Back Again

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the curiously circular course followed by mainstream macroeconomic thinking in recent times. Having broken from classical orthodoxy in the late 1930s via Keynes’s General Theory, over the last three or four decades the mainstream conventional wisdom, regressing rather than progressing, has now come to embrace a conception of the working of the macroeconomy which is again of a classical, essentially pre-Keynesian, character. At the core of the analysis presented in the typical contemporary macro textbook is the (neo)classical model of the labour market, which represents employment as determined (given conditions of productivity) by the terms of labour supply. While it is allowed that changes in aggregate demand may temporarily affect output and employment, the contention is that in due course employment will automatically return to its ‘natural’ (full employment) level. Unemployment is therefore identified as a merely frictional or voluntary phenomenon: involuntary unemployment - in other words persisting demand-deficient unemployment - is entirely absent from the picture. Variations in aggregate demand are understood to have a lasting impact only on the price level, not on output and employment. This in effect amounts to a return to a Pigouvian conception such as targeted by Keynes in the General Theory. We take the view that this reversion to ideas which should by now be obsolete reflects not the discovery of logical or empirical deficiencies in the Keynes analysis, but results rather from doctrinaire blindness and failure of scholarship on account of which essential features of the Keynes theory have been overlooked or misrepresented. There is an urgent need for a critical appraisal of the current conventional macroeconomic wisdom.

Personality traits and behavioral and psychological symptoms in patients at an early stage of Alzheimer's disease.

OBJECTIVE: The origins of behavioral and psychological symptoms (BPS) in Alzheimer's disease (AD) are still poorly understood. Focusing on individual personality structure, we explored the relationship between premorbid personality and its changes over 5 years, and BPS in patients at an early stage of AD. METHOD: A total of 54 patients at an early stage of AD according to ICD-10 and NINCDS-ADRDA criteria and 64 control subjects were included. Family members filled in the Neuropsychiatric Inventory Questionnaire to evaluate their proxies' current BPS and the NEO Personality Inventory Revised twice, the first time to evaluate the participants' current personality and the second time to assess personality traits as they were remembered to be 5 years earlier. RESULTS: Behavioral and psychological symptoms, in particular apathy, depression, anxiety, and agitation, are frequent occurrences in early stage AD. Premorbid personality differed between AD patients and normal control, but it was not predictive of BPS in patients with AD. Personality traits clearly change in the course of beginning AD, and this change seems to develop in parallel with BPS as early signs of AD. CONCLUSIONS: Premorbid personality was not associated with BPS in early stage of AD, although complex and non-linear relationships between the two are not excluded. However, both personality and behavioral changes occur early in the course of AD, and recognizing them as possible, early warning signs of neurodegeneration may prove to be a key factor for early detection and intervention. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Subjective cognitive decline in patients with mild cognitive impairment and healthy older adults: association with personality traits.

AIM: In normal aging, subjective cognitive decline (SCD) might reflect personality traits or affective states rather than objective cognitive decline. However, little is known on the correlates of SCD in mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The present study investigates SCD in MCI patients and healthy older adults, and explores the association of SCD with personality traits, affective states, behavioral and psychological symptoms (BPS), and episodic memory in patients with MCI as compared with healthy older adults. METHODS: A total of 55 patients with MCI and 84 healthy older adults were recruited. Standard instruments were used to evaluate SCD, episodic memory, BPS and affective states. Premorbid and current personality traits were assessed by proxies using the NEO Personality Inventory Revised. RESULTS: Patients with MCI generally reported SCD more often than healthy older adults. SCD was positively associated with depressive symptoms in both groups. With regard to personality, no significant relationship was found in the healthy older group, whereas agreeableness was significantly negatively related to SCD in the MCI group. No significant association was found between SCD and episodic memory. CONCLUSIONS: SCD is more prevalent in patients with MCI than in the healthy elderly, but it does not reflect an objective cognitive impairment. SCD rather echoes depressive symptoms in both patients with MCI and healthy subjects. The negative association of SCD with agreeableness observed in patients with MCI could indicate that MCI patients scoring high on the agreeableness trait would not report SCD in order to prevent their relatives worrying about their increasing cognitive difficulties.

De la Tartarie à l'Asie centrale : le coeur d'un continent dans l'histoire des idées entre la cartographie et la géopolitique

Résumé: Relevant du domaine des représentations, cette thèse porte sur la reconstitution du processus relatif à l'invention des notions liées au «coeur du continent » asiatique, distinguant deux phases: avant et après l'apparition de la dénomination Asie centrale. Partant de l'idée que dans le processus de création de cet objet d'investigation deux actes restent primordiaux - le découpage d'un continuum géographique et culturel et la nomination des parties extraites cette étude cherche à reconstituer selon quels critères et en fonction de quelles justifications et de quels arguments, il a été possible de parvenir, via des mots, à créer les notions centre-asiatiques, afin de faire valoir des «choses» en les représentant verbalement ou graphiquement comme réelles. Cette optique invite, dans une perspective d'histoire des sciences, à travers des images changeantes, à interroger l'Asie centrale en tant qu'objet d'étude, tel qu'il a été historiquement inventé, construit et représenté par les voyageurs et les scientifiques, sans négliger l'analyse du processus politique qui a réussi à insérer des lignes-frontières dans cet espace. Cette investigation aidera à mieux comprendre le sens épistémologique des expressions relatives à l'Asie centrale, souvent imprégnées d'une vision eurocentriste, lors de la progression des connaissances sur la région, en faisant revivre des courants de pensées multiples afin de pouvoir saisir la logique du développement des idées et comprendre quel rôle ces limites centre-asiatiques inventées, qui ne sont que la codification temporelle de certaines données, jouent dans les investigations scientifiques. Abstract: This dissertation proposes a reconstitution of the process of construction of the concepts relating to the Asia's «Heart of the Continent». It is divided into two parts: I: before the invention of the Central. Asia concept, from Antiquity until nineteenth century; II: the notion after this event. The study is mainly devoted to an epistemologic analysis of the arguments used during the delineation and the designation of this space

Perfil d'un grup de penats per delictes contra la seguretat del trànsit

La recent qualificació de certs comportaments en la conducció de vehicles, amb conseqüències letals i indesitjables per a les víctimes, com a conductes delictives ha impactat de manera notable en la reducció de la freqüència i la gravetat d'aquestes conductes. La gestió i la intervenció juridicopenal amb aquests nous tipus d'infractors requereix conèixer les seves característiques individuals psicològiques i criminològiques que els fan especialment susceptibles de reincidir en el futur en aquests tipus delictius. L'objectiu d'aquest treball era avaluar les possibles diferències actitudinals i de personalitat entre un grup de condemnats per delictes contra la seguretat del trànsit, que estaven seguint una MPA, i un grup de controls. Es van seleccionar dues mostres de conductors, infractors i no-infractors, i es van avaluar mitjançant el NEO-FFI i el JI-R simultàniament. Els resultats indiquen que, respecte a les actituds antisocials, els membres del grup d'infractors mostren més actituds antisocials en general que els del grup control. Els infractors de trànsit mostren actituds antisocials compartides amb d'altres delinqüents. Tanmateix, en relació amb el segon objectiu de l'estudi, no es van detectar diferències significatives respecte a la personalitat entre els dos grups. És important ressenyar que la combinació de les mesures de personalitat i actitudinals emprades en aquest estudi permet classificar els conductors amb un bon nivell de precisió en les categories de presència/absència d'una condemna judicial per delicte de trànsit. Cal remarcar la necessitat d'un estudi més ampli i perllongat en el temps per tal de replicar aquests resultats i especialment verificar el seu efecte en la reincidència a un any, ja que en aquesta mostra no hem pogut contrastar-ho.

Compressed collagen gel: a novel scaffold for human bladder cells.

Collagen is highly conserved across species and has been used extensively for tissue regeneration; however, its mechanical properties are limited. A recent advance using plastic compression of collagen gels to achieve much higher concentrations significantly increases its mechanical properties at the neo-tissue level. This controlled, cell-independent process allows the engineering of biomimetic scaffolds. We have evaluated plastic compressed collagen scaffolds seeded with human bladder smooth muscle cells inside and urothelial cells on the gel surface for potential urological applications. Bladder smooth muscle and urothelial cells were visualized using scanning electron microscopy, conventional histology and immunohistochemistry; cell viability and proliferation were also quantified for 14 days in vitro. Both cell types tested proliferated on the construct surface, forming dense cell layers after 2 weeks. However, smooth muscle cells seeded within the construct, assessed with the Alamar blue assay, showed lower proliferation. Cellular distribution within the construct was also evaluated, using confocal microscopy. After 14 days of in vitro culture, 30% of the smooth muscle cells were found on the construct surface compared to 0% at day 1. Our results provide some evidence that cell-seeded plastic compressed collagen has significant potential for bladder tissue regeneration, as these materials allow efficient cell seeding inside the construct as well as cell proliferation.

Highly inducible synthesis of heterologous proteins in epithelial cells carrying a glucocorticoid-responsive vector.

A glucocorticoid-responsive vector is described which allows for the highly inducible expression of complementary DNAs (cDNAs) in stably transfected mammalian cell lines. This vector, pLK-neo, composed of a variant mouse mammary tumor virus long terminal repeat promoter, containing a hormone regulatory element, a Geneticin resistance-encoding gene in a simian virus 40 transcription unit, and a polylinker insertion site for heterologous cDNAs, was used to express the polymeric immunoglobulin (poly-Ig) receptor and the thymocyte marker, Thy-1, in Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cells and in murine fibroblast L cells. A high level of poly-Ig receptor or Thy-1 mRNA accumulation was observed in MDCK cells in response to dexamethasone with a parallel ten- to 200-fold increase in protein synthesis depending on the recombinant protein and the transfected cell clone.

Behavior of endogenous tumor-associated macrophages assessed in vivo using a functionalized nanoparticle.

Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) invade the tumor stroma in many cancers, yet their role is incompletely understood. To visualize and better understand these critical cells in tumor progression, we screened a portfolio of rationally selected, injectable agents to image endogenous TAMs ubiquitously in three different cancer models (colon carcinoma, lung adenocarcinoma, and soft tissue sarcoma). AMTA680, a functionally derivatized magneto-fluorescent nanoparticle, labeled a subset of myeloid cells with an "M2" macrophage phenotype, whereas other neighboring cells, including tumor cells and a variety of other leukocytes, remained unlabeled. We further show that AMTA680-labeled endogenous TAMs are not altered and can be tracked noninvasively at different resolutions and using various imaging modalities, e.g., fluorescence molecular tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and multiphoton and confocal intravital microscopy. Quantitative assessment of TAM distribution and activity in vivo identified that these cells cluster in delimited foci within tumors, show relatively low motility, and extend cytoplasmic protrusions for prolonged physical interactions with neighboring tumor cells. Noninvasive imaging can also be used to monitor TAM-depleting regimen quantitatively. Thus, AMTA680 or related cell-targeting agents represent appropriate injectable vehicles for in vivo analysis of the tumor microenvironment.

Ecologie et liberté : libéralisme versus républicanisme

La question centrale de ce travail est celle de la relation entre finitude environnementale et liberté individuelle. Par finitude environnementale il faut entendre l'ensemble des contraintes écologiques variées qui posent des limites à l'action humaine. Celles-ci sont de deux types généraux : les limites de disponibilité des ressources naturelles et: les limites de charge des écosystèmes et des grands cycles biogéochimiques globaux (chapitre 1). La thèse défendue ici est que les conceptions libertariennes et libérales de la liberté sont en conflit avec la nécessité de prendre en compte de telles limites et qu'une approche néo-républicaine est mieux à même de répondre à ces enjeux écologiques. Les théories libertariennes, de droite comme de gauche, sont inadaptées à la prise en compte de la finitude des ressources naturelles car elles maintiennent un droit à l'appropriation illimitée de ces dernières par les individus. Ce point est en contradiction avec le caractère systémique de la rareté et avec l'absence de substitut pour certaines ressources indispensables à la poursuite d'une vie décente (chapitres 2 et 3). La théorie libérale de la neutralité, appuyée par le principe du tort (harm principle), est quant à elle inadaptée à la prise en compte des problèmes environnementaux globaux comme le changement climatique. Les mécanismes causaux menant à la création de dommages environnementaux sont en effet indirects et diffus, ce qui empêche l'assignation de responsabilités au niveau individuel. La justification de politiques environnementales contraignantes s'en trouve donc mise en péril (chapitre 4). Ces difficultés proviennent avant tout de deux traits caractéristiques de ces doctrines : leur ontologie sociale atomiste et leur conception de la liberté comme liberté de choix. Le néo-républicanisme de Philip Pettit permet de répondre à ces deux problèmes grâce à son ontologie holiste et à sa conception de la liberté comme non- domination. Cette théorie permet donc à la fois de proposer une conception de la liberté compatible avec la finitude environnementale et de justifier des politiques environnementales exigeantes, sans que le sacrifice en termes de liberté n'apparaisse trop important (chapitre 5). - The centrai issue of this work is that of the relationship between environmental finiteness and individual liberty. By environmental finiteness one should understand the set of diverse ecological constraints that limit human action. These limits are of two general kinds: on the one hand the availability of natural resources, and on the other hand the carrying capacity of ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles (chapter 1}. The thesis defended here is that libertarian and liberal conceptions of liberty conflict with the necessity to take such limits into account, and that a neo-republican approach is best suited to address environmental issues. Libertarian theories, right-wing as well as left-wing, are in particular not able to take resource scarcity into account because they argue for an unlimited right of individuals to appropriate those resources. This point is in contradiction with the systemic nature of scarcity and with the absence of substitutes for some essential resources (chapters 2 and 3). The liberal doctrine of neutrality, as associated with the harm principle, is unsuitable when addressing global environmental issues like climate change. Causal mechanisms leading to environmental harm are indirect and diffuse, which prevents the assignation of individual responsibilities. This makes the justification of coercive environmental policies difficult (chapter 4). These difficulties stem above all from two characteristic features of libertarian and liberal doctrines: their atomistic social ontology and their conception of freedom as liberty of choice. Philip Pettit's neo- republicanism on the other hand is able to address these problems thanks to its holist social ontology and its conception of liberty as non-domination. This doctrine offers a conception of liberty compatible with environmental limits and theoretical resources able to justify demanding environmental policies without sacrificing too much in terms of liberty (chapter 5).

Triassic stratigraphic evolution of the Arabian-Greater India embayment of the southern Tethys margin

An exceptional, tectonically remarkably unaffected, nearly 200 m-thick continuous section of hemipelagic and turbiditic sediments, covering most of the Triassic is described from the Batain Complex of north-eastern Oman. According to conodont and radiolarian data the sequence spans the late Scythian to the early Norian, a time period of nearly 30 M. Coupled with a high resolution stratigraphy, the lithostratigraphy, sedimentology, as well as sequence and isotope stratigraphy of the section are documented. For the Triassic of the Batain Plain we propose the new name Sal Formation, which replaces the formerly used Matbat Formation, and subdivide it into three new members. The Sal Formation was deposited on the proximal continental margin of northeastern Arabia and records various depositional environments. The lower member is interpreted as the distal part of a homoclinal ramp which evolves to a distally steepened ramp during time of deposition of the middle member. The upper member displays a toe of slope position which is indicated by an increase of proximal turbidites. These sediments form part of a segment of the Neo-Tethyan embayment between Arabia and India. The stratigraphic analysis indicates highly varying sedimentation rates from a minimum of 2 m/M gamma around the Anisian/Ladinian boundary up to 15 m/M gamma during the Lower and Upper Triassic. Sequence-stratigraphically, the Sal section is subdivided into six third order cycles which are biochronologically well integrated into the global Triassic cycle chart. The mixed siliciclastic-calcareous upper member of the Sal Formation typically shows highstand related carbonate shedding. It is, therefore, an important test case for sequence-stratigraphic controlled carbonate export to mixed basin fills. The well developed sequence stratigraphic cycles are mirrored in the isotope patterns. Additionally, the carbon and oxygen isotope data from the Sal Formation record the same chemostratigraphic marker at the Spathian/Anisian boundary known from other Tethyan sections.

Personality changes in patients with beginning Alzheimer disease.

Objective: To investigate personality traits in patients with Alzheimer disease, compared with mentally healthy control subjects. We compared both current personality characteristics using structured interviews as well as current and previous personality traits as assessed by proxies. Method: Fifty-four patients with mild Alzheimer disease and 64 control subjects described their personality traits using the Structured Interview for the Five-Factor Model. Family members filled in the Revised NEO Personality Inventory, Form R, to evaluate their proxies' current personality traits, compared with 5 years before the estimated beginning of Alzheimer disease or 5 years before the control subjects. Results: After controlling for age, the Alzheimer disease group presented significantly higher scores than normal control subjects on current neuroticism, and significantly lower scores on current extraversion, openness, and conscientiousness, while no significant difference was observed on agreeableness. A similar profile, though less accentuated, was observed when considering personality traits as the patients' proxies remembered them. Diachronic personality assessment showed again significant differences between the 2 groups for the same 4 domains, with important personality changes only for the Alzheimer disease group. Conclusions: Group comparison and retrospective personality evaluation are convergent. Significant personality changes follow a specific trend in patients with Alzheimer disease and contrast with the stability generally observed in mentally healthy people in their personality profile throughout their lives. Whether or not the personality assessment 5 years before the current status corresponds to an early sign of Alzheimer disease or real premorbid personality differences in people who later develop Alzheimer disease requires longitudinal studies.