Assessment of the 10-year probability of osteoporotic hip fracture combining clinical risk factors and heel bone ultrasound: the EPISEM prospective cohort of 12,958 elderly women.

This study aimed to develop a hip screening tool that combines relevant clinical risk factors (CRFs) and quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the heel to determine the 10-yr probability of hip fractures in elderly women. The EPISEM database, comprised of approximately 13,000 women 70 yr of age, was derived from two population-based white European cohorts in France and Switzerland. All women had baseline data on CRFs and a baseline measurement of the stiffness index (SI) derived from QUS at the heel. Women were followed prospectively to identify incident fractures. Multivariate analysis was performed to determine the CRFs that contributed significantly to hip fracture risk, and these were used to generate a CRF score. Gradients of risk (GR; RR/SD change) and areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were calculated for the CRF score, SI, and a score combining both. The 10-yr probability of hip fracture was computed for the combined model. Three hundred seven hip fractures were observed over a mean follow-up of 3.2 yr. In addition to SI, significant CRFs for hip fracture were body mass index (BMI), history of fracture, an impaired chair test, history of a recent fall, current cigarette smoking, and diabetes mellitus. The average GR for hip fracture was 2.10 per SD with the combined SI + CRF score compared with a GR of 1.77 with SI alone and of 1.52 with the CRF score alone. Thus, the use of CRFs enhanced the predictive value of SI alone. For example, in a woman 80 yr of age, the presence of two to four CRFs increased the probability of hip fracture from 16.9% to 26.6% and from 52.6% to 70.5% for SI Z-scores of +2 and -3, respectively. The combined use of CRFs and QUS SI is a promising tool to assess hip fracture probability in elderly women, especially when access to DXA is limited.

Contribution of genetic background, traditional risk factors, and HIV-related factors to coronary artery disease events in HIV-positive persons.

BACKGROUND: Persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have increased rates of coronary artery disease (CAD). The relative contribution of genetic background, HIV-related factors, antiretroviral medications, and traditional risk factors to CAD has not been fully evaluated in the setting of HIV infection. METHODS: In the general population, 23 common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were shown to be associated with CAD through genome-wide association analysis. Using the Metabochip, we genotyped 1875 HIV-positive, white individuals enrolled in 24 HIV observational studies, including 571 participants with a first CAD event during the 9-year study period and 1304 controls matched on sex and cohort. RESULTS: A genetic risk score built from 23 CAD-associated SNPs contributed significantly to CAD (P = 2.9 × 10(-4)). In the final multivariable model, participants with an unfavorable genetic background (top genetic score quartile) had a CAD odds ratio (OR) of 1.47 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-2.04). This effect was similar to hypertension (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06-1.73), hypercholesterolemia (OR = 1.51; 95% CI, 1.16-1.96), diabetes (OR = 1.66; 95% CI, 1.10-2.49), ≥ 1 year lopinavir exposure (OR = 1.36; 95% CI, 1.06-1.73), and current abacavir treatment (OR = 1.56; 95% CI, 1.17-2.07). The effect of the genetic risk score was additive to the effect of nongenetic CAD risk factors, and did not change after adjustment for family history of CAD. CONCLUSIONS: In the setting of HIV infection, the effect of an unfavorable genetic background was similar to traditional CAD risk factors and certain adverse antiretroviral exposures. Genetic testing may provide prognostic information complementary to family history of CAD.

Risk factors for head and neck cancer in young adults: a pooled analysis in the INHANCE consortium.

BACKGROUND: Increasing incidence of head and neck cancer (HNC) in young adults has been reported. We aimed to compare the role of major risk factors and family history of cancer in HNC in young adults and older patients. METHODS: We pooled data from 25 case-control studies and conducted separate analyses for adults ≤45 years old ('young adults', 2010 cases and 4042 controls) and >45 years old ('older adults', 17 700 cases and 22 704 controls). Using logistic regression with studies treated as random effects, we estimated adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: The young group of cases had a higher proportion of oral tongue cancer (16.0% in women; 11.0% in men) and unspecified oral cavity / oropharynx cancer (16.2%; 11.1%) and a lower proportion of larynx cancer (12.1%; 16.6%) than older adult cases. The proportions of never smokers or never drinkers among female cases were higher than among male cases in both age groups. Positive associations with HNC and duration or pack-years of smoking and drinking were similar across age groups. However, the attributable fractions (AFs) for smoking and drinking were lower in young when compared with older adults (AFs for smoking in young women, older women, young men and older men, respectively, = 19.9% (95% CI = 9.8%, 27.9%), 48.9% (46.6%, 50.8%), 46.2% (38.5%, 52.5%), 64.3% (62.2%, 66.4%); AFs for drinking = 5.3% (-11.2%, 18.0%), 20.0% (14.5%, 25.0%), 21.5% (5.0%, 34.9%) and 50.4% (46.1%, 54.3%). A family history of early-onset cancer was associated with HNC risk in the young [OR = 2.27 (95% CI = 1.26, 4.10)], but not in the older adults [OR = 1.10 (0.91, 1.31)]. The attributable fraction for family history of early-onset cancer was 23.2% (8.60% to 31.4%) in young compared with 2.20% (-2.41%, 5.80%) in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: Differences in HNC aetiology according to age group may exist. The lower AF of cigarette smoking and alcohol drinking in young adults may be due to the reduced length of exposure due to the lower age. Other characteristics, such as those that are inherited, may play a more important role in HNC in young adults compared with older adults.

Risk Factors for Incisional and Organ Space Surgical Site Infections After Liver Resection are Different.

BACKGROUND: Surgical site infection (SSI) is a common cause of major morbidity after liver resection. This study aimed to identify the risk factors for incisional and organ/space SSIs after liver resection. METHODS: Our liver surgery database was retrospectively analyzed for patients treated between January 2009 and November 2012 in a tertiary care Swiss hospital. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted on preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables to identify risk factors for incisional and organ/space SSIs. RESULTS: In a total of 226 patients, SSI incidences were 12.8 % (incisional), 4.0 % (organ/space), and 1.8 % (both). Univariate analysis showed that incisional SSIs were associated with high American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) scores, preoperative anemia, hypoalbuminemia, low prothrombin time, viral or alcoholic chronic hepatitis, liver cirrhosis, and prolonged operation times. Organ/space SSIs were associated with high rates of red blood cell transfusions, concomitant bowel surgery, and prolonged operation times. Multivariate analysis revealed that risk factors for incisional SSIs were anemia [odds ratio (OR) 2.82], high ASA scores (OR 2.88), presence of hepatitis or cirrhosis (OR 5.07), and prolonged operation times (OR 9.61). The only risk factor for organ/space SSIs was concomitant bowel surgery (OR 5.53). Hospital stays were similar in organ/space and incisional SSI groups, but significantly longer for those with both organ/space and incisional SSIs. CONCLUSIONS: High ASA scores, anemia, chronic hepatitis or liver cirrhosis, and prolonged operations increased the risk of incisional SSIs; concomitant bowel surgery increased the risk of organ/space SSI. Specific precautions to prevent organ/space and incisional SSIs may shorten hospital stays.

Preoperative nutritional screening by the specialist instead of the nutritional risk score might prevent excess nutrition: a multivariate analysis of nutritional risk factors.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the current study was to assess whether widely used nutritional parameters are correlated with the nutritional risk score (NRS-2002) to identify postoperative morbidity and to evaluate the role of nutritionists in nutritional assessment. METHODS: A randomized trial on preoperative nutritional interventions (NCT00512213) provided the study cohort of 152 patients at nutritional risk (NRS-2002 ≥3) with a comprehensive phenotyping including diverse nutritional parameters (n=17), elaborated by nutritional specialists, and potential demographic and surgical (n=5) confounders. Risk factors for overall, severe (Dindo-Clavien 3-5) and infectious complications were identified by univariate analysis; parameters with P<0.20 were then entered in a multiple logistic regression model. RESULTS: Final analysis included 140 patients with complete datasets. Of these, 61 patients (43.6%) were overweight, and 72 patients (51.4%) experienced at least one complication of any degree of severity. Univariate analysis identified a correlation between few (≤3) active co-morbidities (OR=4.94; 95% CI: 1.47-16.56, p=0.01) and overall complications. Patients screened as being malnourished by nutritional specialists presented less overall complications compared to the not malnourished (OR=0.47; 95% CI: 0.22-0.97, p=0.043). Severe postoperative complications occurred more often in patients with low lean body mass (OR=1.06; 95% CI: 1-1.12, p=0.028). Few (≤3) active co-morbidities (OR=8.8; 95% CI: 1.12-68.99, p=0.008) were related with postoperative infections. Patients screened as being malnourished by nutritional specialists presented less infectious complications (OR=0.28; 95% CI: 0.1-0.78), p=0.014) as compared to the not malnourished. Multivariate analysis identified few co-morbidities (OR=6.33; 95% CI: 1.75-22.84, p=0.005), low weight loss (OR=1.08; 95% CI: 1.02-1.14, p=0.006) and low hemoglobin concentration (OR=2.84; 95% CI: 1.22-6.59, p=0.021) as independent risk factors for overall postoperative complications. Compliance with nutritional supplements (OR=0.37; 95% CI: 0.14-0.97, p=0.041) and supplementation of malnourished patients as assessed by nutritional specialists (OR=0.24; 95% CI: 0.08-0.69, p=0.009) were independently associated with decreased infectious complications. CONCLUSIONS: Nutritional support based upon NRS-2002 screening might result in overnutrition, with potentially deleterious clinical consequences. We emphasize the importance of detailed assessment of the nutritional status by a dedicated specialist before deciding on early nutritional intervention for patients with an initial NRS-2002 score of ≥3.

Complications of systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis: risk factors and management recommendations.

Systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (SJIA) is an inflammatory condition characterized by fever, lymphadenopathy, arthritis, rash and serositis. Systemic inflammation has been associated with dysregulation of the innate immune system, suggesting that SJIA is an autoinflammatory disorder. IL-1 and IL-6 play a major role in the pathogenesis of SJIA, and treatment with IL-1 and IL-6 inhibitors has shown to be highly effective. However, complications of SJIA, including macrophage activation syndrome, limitations in functional outcome by arthritis and long-term damage from chronic inflammation, continue to be a major issue in SJIA patients' care. Translational research leading to a profound understanding of the cytokine crosstalk in SJIA and the identification of risk factors for SJIA complications will help to improve long-term outcome.

A systems view of risk factors for knee osteoarthritis reveals insights into the pathogenesis of the disease.

Early detection of osteoarthritis (OA) remains a critical yet unsolved multifaceted problem. To address the multifaceted nature of OA a systems model was developed to consolidate a number of observations on the biological, mechanical and structural components of OA and identify features common to the primary risk factors for OA (aging, obesity and joint trauma) that are present prior to the development of clinical OA. This analysis supports a unified view of the pathogenesis of OA such that the risk for developing OA emerges when one of the components of the disease (e.g., mechanical) becomes abnormal, and it is the interaction with the other components (e.g., biological and/or structural) that influences the ultimate convergence to cartilage breakdown and progression to clinical OA. The model, applied in a stimulus-response format, demonstrated that a mechanical stimulus at baseline can enhance the sensitivity of a biomarker to predict cartilage thinning in a 5 year follow-up in patients with knee OA. The systems approach provides new insight into the pathogenesis of the disease and offers the basis for developing multidisciplinary studies to address early detection and treatment at a stage in the disease where disease modification has the greatest potential for a successful outcome.

Association study of lipoprotein(a) genetic markers, traditional risk factors, and coronary heart disease in HIV-1-infected patients.

Objectives: General population studies have shown associations between copy number variation (CNV) of the LPA gene Kringle-IV type-2 (KIV-2) coding region, single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs6415084 in LPA and coronary heart disease (CHD). Because risk factors for HIV-infected patients may differ from the general population, we aimed to assess whether these potential associations also occur in HIV-infected patients. Methods: A unicenter, retrospective, case-control (1:3) study. Eighteen HIV-patients with confirmed diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) were adjusted for age, gender, and time since HIV diagnosis to 54 HIV-patients without CHD. After gDNA extraction from frozen blood, both CNV and SNP genotyping were performed using real-time quantitative PCR. All genetic and non-genetic variables for AMI were assessed in a logistic regression analysis. Results: Our results did not confirm any association in terms of lipoprotein(a) LPA structural genetic variants when comparing KIV-2 CNV (p = 0.67) and SNP genotypes (p = 0.44) between AMI cases and controls. However, traditional risk factors such as diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and CD4(+) T cell count showed association (p < 0.05) with CHD. Conclusion: Although significant associations of AMI with diabetes, hypertension and CD4(+) T cell count in HIV-patients were found, this study could not confirm the feasibility neither of KIV-2 CNV nor rs6415084 in LPA as genetic markers of CHD in HIV-infected patients.Highlights:● Individuals with HIV infection are at higher risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) than the non-infected population.● Our results showed no evidence of LPA structural genetic variants associated with CHD in HIV-1-infected patients.● Associations were found between diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, CD4(+) T cell count, and CHD.● The clinical usefulness of these biomarkers to predict CHD in HIV-1-infected population remains unproven.● Further studies are needed to assess the contribution of common genetic variations to CHD in HIV-infected individuals.

Prevalence and risk factors for therapy escalation in ulcerative colitis in the Swiss IBD Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Physicians traditionally treat ulcerative colitis (UC) using a step-up approach. Given the paucity of data, we aimed to assess the cumulative probability of UC-related need for step-up therapy and to identify escalation-associated risk factors. METHODS: Patients with UC enrolled into the Swiss IBD Cohort Study were analyzed. The following steps from the bottom to the top of the therapeutic pyramid were examined: (1) 5-aminosalicylic acid and/or rectal corticosteroids, (2) systemic corticosteroids, (3) immunomodulators (IM) (azathioprine, 6-mercaptopurine, methotrexate), (4) TNF antagonists, (5) calcineurin inhibitors, and (6) colectomy. RESULTS: Data on 996 patients with UC with a median disease duration of 9 years were examined. The point estimates of cumulative use of different treatments at years 1, 5, 10, and 20 after UC diagnosis were 91%, 96%, 96%, and 97%, respectively, for 5-ASA and/or rectal corticosteroids, 63%, 69%, 72%, and 79%, respectively, for systemic corticosteroids, 43%, 57%, 59%, and 64%, respectively, for IM, 15%, 28%, and 35% (up to year 10 only), respectively, for TNF antagonists, 5%, 9%, 11%, and 12%, respectively, for calcineurin inhibitors, 1%, 5%, 9%, and 18%, respectively, for colectomy. The presence of extraintestinal manifestations and extended disease location (at least left-sided colitis) were identified as risk factors for step-up in therapy with systemic corticosteroids, IM, TNF antagonists, calcineurin inhibitors, and surgery. Cigarette smoking at diagnosis was protective against surgery. CONCLUSIONS: The presence of extraintestinal manifestations, left-sided colitis, and extensive colitis/pancolitis at the time of diagnosis were associated with use of systemic corticosteroids, IM, TNF antagonists, calcineurin inhibitors, and colectomy during the disease course.

Prevalence and risk factors for thromboembolic complications in IBD patients

Background: Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients have an increased risk of venous thromboembolic complications (VTEC) such as deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism when compared to the non-IBD population. However, studies assessing VTEC prevalence in IBD as well as analyses of VTEC associated risk factors are scarce. We aimed to assess VTEC prevalence in IBD patients and to identify associated risk factors. Methods: Data from patients enrolled in the Swiss IBD Cohort Study (SIBDCS) were analyzed. Since 2006 the SIBDCS collects data on a large sample of IBD patients from hospitals and private practices across Switzerland. Results: A  total of 90/2284 (3.94%) IBD patients suffered from VTEC. Of these, 45/1324 (3.4% overall; 2.42% with DVT, 1.51% with PE) had CD, and 45/960 (4.7% overall; 3.23% with DVT, 2.40% with PE) presented with UC.

Distribution and risk factors for Plasmodium and helminth co-infections: a cross-sectional survey among children in Bagamoyo district, coastal region of Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium and soil transmitted helminth infections (STH) are a major public health problem, particularly among children. There are conflicting findings on potential association between these two parasites. This study investigated the Plasmodium and helminth co-infections among children aged 2 months to 9 years living in Bagamoyo district, coastal region of Tanzania. METHODS: A community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted among 1033 children. Stool, urine and blood samples were examined using a broad set of quality controlled diagnostic methods for common STH (Ascaris lumbricoides, hookworm, Strongyloides stercoralis, Enterobius vermicularis, Trichuris trichura), schistosoma species and Wuchereria bancrofti. Blood slides and malaria rapid diagnostic tests (mRDTs) were utilized for Plasmodium diagnosis. RESULTS: Out of 992 children analyzed, the prevalence of Plasmodium infection was 13% (130/992), helminth 28.5% (283/992); 5% (50/992) had co-infection with Plasmodium and helminth. The prevalence rate of Plasmodium, specific STH and co-infections increased significantly with age (p < 0.001), with older children mostly affected except for S. stercoralis monoinfection and co-infections. Spatial variations of co-infection prevalence were observed between and within villages. There was a trend for STH infections to be associated with Plasmodium infection [OR adjusted for age group 1.4, 95% CI (1.0-2.1)], which was more marked for S. stercoralis (OR = 2.2, 95% CI (1.1-4.3). Age and not schooling were risk factors for Plasmodium and STH co-infection. CONCLUSION: The findings suggest that STH and Plasmodium infections tend to occur in the same children, with increasing prevalence of co-infection with age. This calls for an integrated approach such as using mass chemotherapy with dual effect (e.g., ivermectin) coupled with improved housing, sanitation and hygiene for the control of both parasitic infections.

Lost in translation: dietary management of cardiovascular risk factors is seldom implemented.

OBJECTIVE: To assess dietary management of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) in the general population. METHOD: Cross-sectional study conducted between 2009 and 2012 on 4811 participants (2567 women, 58±11years) living in Lausanne, Switzerland. RESULTS: Sixteen percent of participants diagnosed with overweight/obesity reported a slimming diet. Slimming diet was associated with diagnosis of hypertension: Odds ratio and (95% confidence interval): 0.61 (0.40-0.93); older age [0.84 (0.58-1.21), 0.79 (0.53-1.18) and 0.47 (0.27-0.81) for [50-60[, [60-70[ and [70+ years, respectively]; female gender [1.84 (1.36-2.48)] and diagnosis of diabetes [2.16 (1.13-4.12)]. Only 8% of participants diagnosed with hypertension reported a low-salt diet. Low-salt diet was associated with antihypertensive drug treatment [2.17 (1.28-3.68)] and diagnosis of diabetes [2.72 (1.26-5.86)]. One-third of participants diagnosed with dyslipidemia reported a low-fat diet. Low-fat diet was associated with female gender [1.47 (1.17-1.86)]; older age [1.29 (0.89-1.87), 1.71 (1.18-2.48) and 2.01 (1.33-3.03) for [50-60[, [60-70[ and [70+ years, respectively]; hypolipidemic drug treatment [OR=1.68 (1.29-2.18)]; current smoking [0.70 (0.51-0.96)] and obesity [0.67 (0.45-1.00)]. Approximately half of participants diagnosed with diabetes reported an antidiabetic diet. Antidiabetic diet was associated with current smoking [0.44 (0.22-0.88)] and antidiabetic drug treatment [OR=3.26 (1.81-5.86)]. CONCLUSION: Dietary management of CVRFs is seldom implemented in Switzerland.

Incidence and Risk Factors of Abdominal Complications After Lung Transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Due to the underlying diseases and the need for immunosuppression, patients after lung transplantation are particularly at risk for gastrointestinal (GI) complications that may negatively influence long-term outcome. The present study assessed the incidences and impact of GI complications after lung transplantation and aimed to identify risk factors. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of all 227 consecutively performed single- and double-lung transplantations at the University hospitals of Lausanne and Geneva was performed between January 1993 and December 2010. Logistic regressions were used to test the effect of potentially influencing variables on the binary outcomes overall, severe, and surgery-requiring complications, followed by a multiple logistic regression model. RESULTS: Final analysis included 205 patients for the purpose of the present study, and 22 patients were excluded due to re-transplantation, multiorgan transplantation, or incomplete datasets. GI complications were observed in 127 patients (62 %). Gastro-esophageal reflux disease was the most commonly observed complication (22.9 %), followed by inflammatory or infectious colitis (20.5 %) and gastroparesis (10.7 %). Major GI complications (Dindo/Clavien III-V) were observed in 83 (40.5 %) patients and were fatal in 4 patients (2.0 %). Multivariate analysis identified double-lung transplantation (p = 0.012) and early (1993-1998) transplantation period (p = 0.008) as independent risk factors for developing major GI complications. Forty-three (21 %) patients required surgery such as colectomy, cholecystectomy, and fundoplication in 6.8, 6.3, and 3.9 % of the patients, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified Charlson comorbidity index of ≥3 as an independent risk factor for developing GI complications requiring surgery (p = 0.015). CONCLUSION: GI complications after lung transplantation are common. Outcome was rather encouraging in the setting of our transplant center.

Prenatal Risk Factors and Outcomes in Gastroschisis: A Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Gastroschisis is a congenital anomaly with increasing incidence, easy prenatal diagnosis and extremely variable postnatal outcomes. Our objective was to systematically review the evidence regarding the association between prenatal ultrasound signs (intraabdominal bowel dilatation [IABD], extraabdominal bowel dilatation, gastric dilatation [GD], bowel wall thickness, polyhydramnios, and small for gestational age) and perinatal outcomes in gastroschisis (bowel atresia, intra uterine death, neonatal death, time to full enteral feeding, length of total parenteral nutrition and length of in hospital stay). METHODS: Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched electronically. Studies exploring the association between antenatal ultrasound signs and outcomes in gastroschisis were considered suitable for inclusion. Two reviewers independently extracted relevant data regarding study characteristics and pregnancy outcome. All meta-analyses were computed using individual data random-effect logistic regression, with single study as the cluster unit. RESULTS: Twenty-six studies, including 2023 fetuses, were included. We found significant positive associations between IABD and bowel atresia (odds ratio [OR]: 5.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.1-9.8), polyhydramnios and bowel atresia (OR: 3.76, 95% CI 1.7-8.3), and GD and neonatal death (OR: 5.58, 95% CI 1.3-24.1). No other ultrasound sign was significantly related to any other outcome. CONCLUSIONS: IABD, polyhydramnios, and GD can be used to an extent to identify a subgroup of neonates with a prenatal diagnosis of gastroschisis at higher risk to develop postnatal complications. Data are still inconclusive on the predictive ability of several signs combined, and large prospective studies are needed to improve the quality of prenatal counseling and the neonatal care for this condition.