Identifying Resiliency Performance Measures for Megaregional Planning Case Study of the Transportation Corridor Between Boston, Massachusetts, and Washington, DC

Transportation corridors in megaregions present a unique challenge for planners because of the high concentration of development, complex interjurisdictional issues, and history of independent development of core urban centers. The concept of resilience, as applied to megaregions, can be used to understand better the performance of these corridors. Resiliency is the ability to recover from or adjust easily to change. Resiliency performance measures can be expanded on for application to megaregions throughout the United States. When applied to transportation corridors in megaregions and represented by performance measures such as redundancy, continuity, connectivity, and travel time reliability, the concept of resiliency captures the spatial and temporal relationships between the attributes of a corridor, a network, and neighboring facilities over time at the regional and local levels. This paper focuses on the development of performance measurements for evaluating corridor resiliency as well as a plan for implementing analysis methods at the jurisdictional level. The transportation corridor between Boston, Massachusetts, and Washington, D.C., is used as a case study to represent the applicability of these measures to megaregions throughout the country.

Using water balance models to approximate the effects of climate change on spring catchment discharge : Mt. Hanang, Tanzania

This project addresses the potential impacts of changing climate on dry-season water storage and discharge from a small, mountain catchment in Tanzania. Villagers and water managers around the catchment have experienced worsening water scarcity and attribute it to increasing population and demand, but very little has been done to understand the physical characteristics and hydrological behavior of the spring catchment. The physical nature of the aquifer was characterized and water balance models were calibrated to discharge observations so as to be able to explore relative changes in aquifer storage resulting from climate changes. To characterize the shallow aquifer supplying water to the Jandu spring, water quality and geochemistry data were analyzed, discharge recession analysis was performed, and two water balance models were developed and tested. Jandu geochemistry suggests a shallow, meteorically-recharged aquifer system with short circulation times. Baseflow recession analysis showed that the catchment behavior could be represented by a linear storage model with an average recession constant of 0.151/month from 2004-2010. Two modified Thornthwaite-Mather Water Balance (TMWB) models were calibrated using historic rainfall and discharge data and shown to reproduce dry-season flows with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies between 0.86 and 0.91. The modified TMWB models were then used to examine the impacts of nineteen, perturbed climate scenarios to test the potential impacts of regional climate change on catchment storage during the dry season. Forcing the models with realistic scenarios for average monthly temperature, annual precipitation, and seasonal rainfall distribution demonstrated that even small climate changes might adversely impact aquifer storage conditions at the onset of the dry season. The scale of the change was dependent on the direction (increasing vs. decreasing) and magnitude of climate change (temperature and precipitation). This study demonstrates that small, mountain aquifer characterization is possible using simple water quality parameters, recession analysis can be integrated into modeling aquifer storage parameters, and water balance models can accurately reproduce dry-season discharges and might be useful tools to assess climate change impacts. However, uncertainty in current climate projections and lack of data for testing the predictive capabilities of the model beyond the present data set, make the forecasts of changes in discharge also uncertain. The hydrologic tools used herein offer promise for future research in understanding small, shallow, mountainous aquifers and could potentially be developed and used by water resource professionals to assess climatic influences on local hydrologic systems.