Designing a Demand Forecasting Process in the Fast Moving Consumer Goods Context

The purpose of this thesis was to study the design of demand forecasting processes. A literature review in the field of forecasting was conducted, including general forecasting process design, forecasting methods and techniques, the role of human judgment in forecasting and forecasting performance measurement. The purpose of the literature review was to identify the important design choices that an organization aiming to design or re-design their demand forecasting process would have to make. In the empirical part of the study, these choices and the existing knowledge behind them was assessed in a case study where a demand forecasting process was re-designed for a company in the fast moving consumer goods business. The new target process is described, as well as the reasoning behind the design choices made during the re-design process. As a result, the most important design choices are highlighted, as well as their immediate effect on other processes directly tied to the demand forecasting process. Additionally, some new insights on the organizational aspects of demand forecasting processes are explored. The preliminary results indicate that in this case the new process did improve forecasting accuracy, although organizational issues related to the process proved to be more challenging than anticipated.

Instability of a square sheet under symmetric biaxial loading

An early experiment found that a square rubber sheet under symmetric biaxial loading may not remain square. This curious result has been one of the most instructive examples in finite elasticity. Here thermodynamic considerations are used to analyze this instability.

Numerical study on mixed convection in a horizontal flow past a square porous cavity using UNIFAES scheme

Mixed convection on the flow past a heated length and past a porous cavity located in a horizontal wall bounding a saturated porous medium is numerically simulated. The cavity is heated from below. The steady-state regime is studied for several intensities of the buoyancy effects due to temperature variations. The influences of Péclet and Rayleigh numbers on the flow pattern and the temperature distributions are examined. Local and global Nusselt numbers are reported for the heated surface. The convective-diffusive fluxes at the volume boundaries are represented using the UNIFAES, Unified Finite Approach Exponential-type Scheme, with the Power-Law approximation to reduce the computing time. The conditions established by Rivas for the quadratic order of accuracy of the central differencing to be maintained in irregular grids are shown to be extensible to other quadratic schemes, including UNIFAES, so that accuracy estimates could be obtained.

Histopathological diagnosis of intra- and extrahepatic neonatal cholestasis

The histopathology of the liver is fundamental for the differential diagnosis between intra- and extrahepatic causes of neonatal cholestasis. However, histopathological findings may overlap and there is disagreement among authors concerning those which could discriminate between intra- and extrahepatic cholestasis. Forty-six liver biopsies (35 wedge biopsies and 11 percutaneous biopsies) and one specimen from a postmortem examination, all from patients hospitalized for neonatal cholestasis in the Pediatrics Service of Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, were prospectively studied using a specially designed histopathological protocol. At least 4 of 5 different stains were used, and 46 hepatic histopathological variables related to the differential diagnosis of neonatal cholestasis were studied. The findings were scored for severity on a scale from 0 to 4. Sections which showed less than 3 portal spaces were excluded from the study. Sections were examined by a pathologist who was unaware of the final diagnosis of each case. Bile tract permeability was defined by scintigraphy of the bile ducts and operative cholangiography. The F test and discriminant analysis were used as statistical methods for the study of the hepatic histopathological variables. The chi-square method with Yates correction was used to relate the age of the patients on the date of the histopathological study to the discriminatory variables between intra- and extrahepatic cholestasis selected by the discriminant function test. The most valuable hepatic histopathological variables for the discrimination between intra- and extrahepatic cholestasis, in decreasing order of importance, were periportal ductal proliferation, portal ductal proliferation, portal expansion, cholestasis in neoductules, foci of myeloid metaplasia, and portal-portal bridges. The only variable which pointed to the diagnosis of intrahepatic cholestasis was myeloid metaplasia. Due to the small number of patients who were younger than 60 days on the date of the histopathological study (N = 6), no variable discriminated between intra- and extrahepatic cholestasis before the age of 2 months and all of them, except for the portal expansion, were discriminatory after this age. In infants with cholestasis, foci of myeloid metaplasia, whenever present in the liver biopsy, suggested intrahepatic cholestasis. Periportal ductal proliferation, portal ductal proliferation, portal expansion, cholestasis in neoductules, portal cholestasis and portal-portal bridges suggested extrahepatic obstructive cholestasis.

Influence of a multideficient diet from northeastern Brazil on resting blood pressure and baroreflex sensitivity in conscious, freely moving rats

The "regional basic diet" or RBD is a multideficient diet (providing 8% protein) which is known to produce dietary deficiencies in some populations in northeastern Brazil. The present study investigated the effects of RBD-induced malnutrition on resting blood pressure and baroreflex sensitivity in conscious rats. Malnourished rats were obtained by feeding dams the RBD during mating and pregnancy (RBD-1 group) or during nursing and a 10-day period after weaning (RBD-2 group). At 90 days of age, only RBD-2 rats weighed significantly (P<0.001) less than control rats born to dams fed a standard commercial diet (23% protein) during pregnancy and nursing. Baseline mean arterial pressure and heart rate of both RBD-1 and RBD-2 rats were comparable to those of controls. The slopes for both reflex bradycardia and tachycardia (bpm/mmHg) induced by intravenous phenylephrine and sodium nitroprusside, respectively, were unchanged in either RBD-1 (-2.08 ± 0.11 and -3.10 ± 0.43, respectively) or RBD-2 (-2.32 ± 0.30 and -3.73 ± 0.53, respectively) rats, when compared to controls (-2.09 ± 0.10 and -3.17 ± 0.33, respectively). This study shows that, after a prolonged period of nutritional recovery, the patterns of resting blood pressure and baroreflex sensitivity of both pre- and postnatally malnourished rats were similar to those of controls. The decreased body weight and the tendency to increased reflex tachycardia in RBD-2 rats may suggest that this type of maternal malnutrition during lactation is more critical than during pregnancy.

Effects of septal cholinergic lesion on rat exploratory behavior in an open-field

The medial septum participates in the modulation of exploratory behavior triggered by novelty. Also, selective lesions of the cholinergic component of the septohippocampal system alter the habituation of rats to an elevated plus-maze without modifying anxiety indices. We investigated the effects of the intraseptal injection of the cholinergic immunotoxin 192 IgG-saporin (SAP) on the behavior of rats in an open-field. Thirty-nine male Wistar rats (weight: 194-230 g) were divided into three groups, non-injected controls and rats injected with either saline (0.5 µl) or SAP (237.5 ng/0.5 µl). Twelve days after surgery, the animals were placed in a square open-field (120 cm) and allowed to freely explore for 5 min. After the test, the rats were killed by decapitation and the septum, hippocampus and frontal cortex were removed and assayed for acetylcholinesterase activity. SAP increased acetylcholinesterase activity in the septum, hippocampus and frontal cortex and decreased the total distance run (9.15 ± 1.51 m) in comparison to controls (13.49 ± 0.91 m). The time spent in the center and at the periphery was not altered by SAP but the distance run was reduced during the first and second minutes (2.43 ± 0.36 and 1.75 ± 0.34 m) compared to controls (4.18 ± 0.26 and 3.14 ± 0.25 m). SAP-treated rats showed decreased but persistent exploration throughout the session. These results suggest that septohippocampal cholinergic mechanisms contribute to at least two critical processes, one related to the motivation to explore new environments and the other to the acquisition and storage of spatial information (i.e., spatial memory).

A brain microdialysis study on 5-HT release in freely moving rat lines selectively bred for differential 5-HT1A receptor function

Breeding for high and low hypothermic responses to systemic administration of a serotonin1A (5-HT1A) receptor agonist (8-hydroxy-2-(di-n-propylamino)tetralin, 8-OH-DPAT) has resulted in high DPAT-sensitive (HDS) and low DPAT-sensitive (LDS) lines of rats, respectively. These lines also differ in several behavioral measures associated with stress. In the present microdialysis study we observed that basal 5-HT concentrations in the prefrontal cortex and dorsal hippocampus did not differ significantly between HDS and LDS rats. Thus, behavioral differences between the HDS and LDS lines might not be attributed to differences in basal 5-HT release. However, both lines had lower basal levels of 5-HT release than their randomly bred control group (random DPAT-sensitive, RDS) in the prefrontal cortex (mean ± SEM, pg/20 µl, was 3.0 ± 0.4 for LDS, 3.8 ± 0.3 for HDS and 6.4 ± 0.6 for RDS; F(2,59) = 5.8, P<0.005). The administration of (±)-fenfluramine (10 mg/kg) induced a greater increase in hippocampal 5-HT levels in HDS rats (500%) as compared with LDS (248%) or RDS (243%) rats (P<0.0001). There were no significant differences in the prefrontal cortex among lines, with a fenfluramine-induced 5-HT increase of about 900% in the three groups. This differential response to fenfluramine may be due to functional alterations of hippocampal 5-HT reuptake sites in the HDS line.

Hygro-elasto-plastic behavior of planar orthotropic material

The mechanical and hygroscopic properties of paper and board are factors affecting the whole lifecycle of a product, including paper/board quality, production, converting, and material and energy savings. The progress of shrinkage profiles, loose edges of web, baggy web causing wrinkling and misregistration in printing are examples of factors affecting runnability and end product quality in the drying section and converting processes, where paper or board is treated as a moving web. The structural properties and internal stresses or plastic strain differences built up during production also cause the end-product defects related to distortion of the shape of the product such as sheet or box. The objective of this work was to construct a model capable of capturing the characteristic behavior of hygroscopic orthotropic material under moisture change, during different external in-plane stretch or stress conditions. Two independent experimental models were constructed: the elasto-plastic material model and the hygroexpansivity-shrinkage model. Both describe the structural properties of the sheet with a fiber orientation probability distribution, and both are functions of the dry solids content and fiber orientation anisotropy index. The anisotropy index, introduced in this work, simplifies the procedure of determining the constitutive parameters of the material model and the hygroexpansion coefficients in different in-plane directions of the orthotropic sheet. The mathematically consistent elasto-plastic material model and the dry solids content dependent hygroexpansivity have been constructed over the entire range from wet to dry. The presented elastoplastic and hygroexpansivity-shrinkage models can be used in an analytical approach to estimate the plastic strain and shrinkage in simple one-dimensional cases. For studies of the combined and more complicated effects of hygro-elasto-plastic behavior, both models were implemented in a finite element program for a numerical solution. The finite element approach also offered possibilities for studying different structural variations of orthotropic planar material, as well as local buckling behavior and internal stress situations of the sheet or web generated by local strain differences. A comparison of the simulation examples presented in this work to results published earlier confirms that the hygro-elasto-plastic model provides at least qualitatively reasonable estimates. The application potential of the hygro-elasto-plastic model is versatile, including several phenomena and defects appearing in the drying, converting and end-use conditions of the paper or board webs and products, or in other corresponding complex planar materials.

Comparative effects of organic and inorganic mercury on in vivo dopamine release in freely moving rats

The present study was carried out in order to compare the effects of administration of organic (methylmercury, MeHg) and inorganic (mercury chloride, HgCl 2 ) forms of mercury on in vivo dopamine (DA) release from rat striatum. Experiments were performed in conscious and freely moving female adult Sprague-Dawley (230-280 g) rats using brain microdialysis coupled to HPLC with electrochemical detection. Perfusion of different concentrations of MeHg or HgCl 2 (2 µL/min for 1 h, N = 5-7/group) into the striatum produced significant increases in the levels of DA. Infusion of 40 µM, 400 µM, or 4 mM MeHg increased DA levels to 907 ± 31, 2324 ± 156, and 9032 ± 70% of basal levels, respectively. The same concentrations of HgCl 2 increased DA levels to 1240 ± 66, 2500 ± 424, and 2658 ± 337% of basal levels, respectively. These increases were associated with significant decreases in levels of dihydroxyphenylacetic acid and homovallinic acid. Intrastriatal administration of MeHg induced a sharp concentration-dependent increase in DA levels with a peak 30 min after injection, whereas HgCl 2 induced a gradual, lower (for 4 mM) and delayed increase in DA levels (75 min after the beginning of perfusion). Comparing the neurochemical profile of the two mercury derivatives to induce increases in DA levels, we observed that the time-course of these increases induced by both mercurials was different and the effect produced by HgCl 2 was not concentration-dependent (the effect was the same for the concentrations of 400 µM and 4 mM HgCl 2 ). These results indicate that HgCl 2 produces increases in extracellular DA levels by a mechanism differing from that of MeHg.

HLA-DRB1 alleles in juvenile-onset systemic lupus erythematosus: renal histologic class correlations

Human leukocyte antigens (HLA) DRB1*03 and DRB1*02 have been associated with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Caucasians and black populations. It has been observed that certain HLA alleles show stronger associations with SLE autoantibodies and clinical subsets, although they have rarely been associated with lupus renal histologic class. In the present study, HLA-DRB1 allele correlations with clinical features, autoantibodies and renal histologic class were analyzed in a cohort of racially mixed Brazilian patients with juvenile-onset SLE. HLA-DRB1 typing was carried out by polymerase chain reaction amplification with sequence-specific primers using genomic DNA from 55 children and adolescents fulfilling at least four of the American College of Rheumatology criteria for SLE. Significance was determined by the chi-square test applied to 2 x 2 tables. The HLA-DRB1*15 allele was most frequent in patients with renal, musculoskeletal, cutaneous, hematologic, cardiac, and neuropsychiatric involvement, as well as in patients positive for anti-dsDNA, anti-Sm, anti-U1-RNP, and anti-SSA/Ro antibodies, although an association between HLA alleles and SLE clinical features and autoantibodies could not be observed. The HLA-DRB1*17, HLA-DRB1*10, HLA-DRB1*15, and HLA-DRB1*07 alleles were significantly higher in patients with renal histologic class I, class IIA, class IIB, and class V, respectively. The present results suggest that the contribution of HLA- DRB1 alleles to juvenile-onset SLE could not be related to clinical or serological subsets of the disease, but it may be related to renal histologic classes, especially class I, class II A, class II B, and class V. The latter correlations have not been observed in literature.

Treadmill exercise testing of asymptomatic men and women without evidence of heart disease

The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis of differences in performance including differences in ST-T wave changes between healthy men and women submitted to an exercise stress test. Two hundred (45.4%) men and 241 (54.6%) women (mean age: 38.7 ± 11.0 years) were submitted to an exercise stress test. Physiologic and electrocardiographic variables were compared by the Student t-test and the chi-square test. To test the hypothesis of differences in ST-segment changes, data were ranked with functional models based on weighted least squares. To evaluate the influence of gender and age on the diagnosis of ST-segment abnormality, a logistic model was adjusted; P < 0.05 was considered to be significant. Rate-pressure product, duration of exercise and estimated functional capacity were higher in men (P < 0.05). Sixteen (6.7%) women and 9 (4.5%) men demonstrated ST-segment upslope ≥0.15 mV or downslope ≥0.10 mV; the difference was not statistically significant. Age increase of one year added 4% to the chance of upsloping of segment ST ≥0.15 mV or downsloping of segment ST ≥0.1 mV (P = 0.03; risk ratio = 1.040, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.002-1.080). Heart rate recovery was higher in women (P < 0.05). The chance of women showing an increase of systolic blood pressure ≤30 mmHg was 85% higher (P = 0.01; risk ratio = 1.85, 95%CI = 1.1-3.05). No significant difference in the frequency of ST-T wave changes was observed between men and women. Other differences may be related to different physical conditioning.

Classification of brain tumor extracts by high resolution ¹H MRS using partial least squares discriminant analysis

High resolution proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (¹H MRS) can be used to detect biochemical changes in vitro caused by distinct pathologies. It can reveal distinct metabolic profiles of brain tumors although the accurate analysis and classification of different spectra remains a challenge. In this study, the pattern recognition method partial least squares discriminant analysis (PLS-DA) was used to classify 11.7 T ¹H MRS spectra of brain tissue extracts from patients with brain tumors into four classes (high-grade neuroglial, low-grade neuroglial, non-neuroglial, and metastasis) and a group of control brain tissue. PLS-DA revealed 9 metabolites as the most important in group differentiation: γ-aminobutyric acid, acetoacetate, alanine, creatine, glutamate/glutamine, glycine, myo-inositol, N-acetylaspartate, and choline compounds. Leave-one-out cross-validation showed that PLS-DA was efficient in group characterization. The metabolic patterns detected can be explained on the basis of previous multimodal studies of tumor metabolism and are consistent with neoplastic cell abnormalities possibly related to high turnover, resistance to apoptosis, osmotic stress and tumor tendency to use alternative energetic pathways such as glycolysis and ketogenesis.

Chi-square analysis of the reduction of ATP levels in L-02 hepatocytes by hexavalent chromium

This study explored the reduction of adenosine triphosphate (ATP) levels in L-02 hepatocytes by hexavalent chromium (Cr(VI)) using chi-square analysis. Cells were treated with 2, 4, 8, 16, or 32 μM Cr(VI) for 12, 24, or 36 h. Methyl thiazolyl tetrazolium (MTT) experiments and measurements of intracellular ATP levels were performed by spectrophotometry or bioluminescence assays following Cr(VI) treatment. The chi-square test was used to determine the difference between cell survival rate and ATP levels. For the chi-square analysis, the results of the MTT or ATP experiments were transformed into a relative ratio with respect to the control (%). The relative ATP levels increased at 12 h, decreased at 24 h, and increased slightly again at 36 h following 4, 8, 16, 32 μM Cr(VI) treatment, corresponding to a "V-shaped" curve. Furthermore, the results of the chi-square analysis demonstrated a significant difference of the ATP level in the 32-μM Cr(VI) group (P < 0.05). The results suggest that the chi-square test can be applied to analyze the interference effects of Cr(VI) on ATP levels in L-02 hepatocytes. The decreased ATP levels at 24 h indicated disruption of mitochondrial energy metabolism and the slight increase of ATP levels at 36 h indicated partial recovery of mitochondrial function or activated glycolysis in L-02 hepatocytes.