Like the living end

Seven-part elegy for David Mather (1954-2010)

Generalized beta generated distributions

This article introduces generalized beta-generated (GBG) distributions. Sub-models include all classical beta-generated, Kumaraswamy-generated and exponentiated distributions. They are maximum entropy distributions under three intuitive conditions, which show that the classical beta generator skewness parameters only control tail entropy and an additional shape parameter is needed to add entropy to the centre of the parent distribution. This parameter controls skewness without necessarily differentiating tail weights. The GBG class also has tractable properties: we present various expansions for moments, generating function and quantiles. The model parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood and the usefulness of the new class is illustrated by means of some real data sets.

Assessing and understanding the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on the earth system

Advances in weather and climate research have demonstrated the role of the stratosphere in the Earth system across a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Stratospheric ozone loss has been identified as a key driver of Southern Hemisphere tropospheric circulation trends, affecting ocean currents and carbon uptake, sea ice, and possibly even the Antarctic ice sheets. Stratospheric variability has also been shown to affect short term and seasonal forecasts, connecting the tropics and midlatitudes and guiding storm track dynamics. The two-way interactions between the stratosphere and the Earth system have motivated the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Stratospheric Processes and Their Role in Climate (SPARC) DynVar activity to investigate the impact of stratospheric dynamics and variability on climate. This assessment will be made possible by two new multi-model datasets. First, roughly 10 models with a well resolved stratosphere are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5), providing the first multi-model ensemble of climate simulations coupled from the stratopause to the sea floor. Second, the Stratosphere Historical Forecasting Project (SHFP) of WCRP's Climate Variability and predictability (CLIVAR) program is forming a multi-model set of seasonal hindcasts with stratosphere resolving models, revealing the impact of both stratospheric initial conditions and dynamics on intraseasonal prediction. The CMIP5 and SHFP model-data sets will offer an unprecedented opportunity to understand the role of the stratosphere in the natural and forced variability of the Earth system and to determine whether incorporating knowledge of the middle atmosphere improves seasonal forecasts and climate projections. Capsule New modeling efforts will provide unprecedented opportunities to harness our knowledge of the stratosphere to improve weather and climate prediction.

Stratosphere‐troposphere coupling and annular mode variability in chemistry‐climate models

The internal variability and coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere in CCMVal‐2 chemistry‐climate models are evaluated through analysis of the annular mode patterns of variability. Computation of the annular modes in long data sets with secular trends requires refinement of the standard definition of the annular mode, and a more robust procedure that allows for slowly varying trends is established and verified. The spatial and temporal structure of the models’ annular modes is then compared with that of reanalyses. As a whole, the models capture the key features of observed intraseasonal variability, including the sharp vertical gradients in structure between stratosphere and troposphere, the asymmetries in the seasonal cycle between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and the coupling between the polar stratospheric vortices and tropospheric midlatitude jets. It is also found that the annular mode variability changes little in time throughout simulations of the 21st century. There are, however, both common biases and significant differences in performance in the models. In the troposphere, the annular mode in models is generally too persistent, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere summer, a bias similar to that found in CMIP3 coupled climate models. In the stratosphere, the periods of peak variance and coupling with the troposphere are delayed by about a month in both hemispheres. The relationship between increased variability of the stratosphere and increased persistence in the troposphere suggests that some tropospheric biases may be related to stratospheric biases and that a well‐simulated stratosphere can improve simulation of tropospheric intraseasonal variability.

Origin of regional climate differences: role of boundary conditions and model formulation in two GCMs

Model differences in projections of extratropical regional climate change due to increasing greenhouse gases are investigated using two atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs): ECHAM4 (Max Planck Institute, version 4) and CCM3 (National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model version 3). Sea-surface temperature (SST) fields calculated from observations and coupled versions of the two models are used to force each AGCM in experiments based on time-slice methodology. Results from the forced AGCMs are then compared to coupled model results from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 2 (CMIP2) database. The time-slice methodology is verified by showing that the response of each model to doubled CO2 and SST forcing from the CMIP2 experiments is consistent with the results of the coupled GCMs. The differences in the responses of the models are attributed to (1) the different tropical SST warmings in the coupled simulations and (2) the different atmospheric model responses to the same tropical SST warmings. Both are found to have important contributions to differences in implied Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter extratropical regional 500 mb height and tropical precipitation climate changes. Forced teleconnection patterns from tropical SST differences are primarily responsible for sensitivity differences in the extratropical North Pacific, but have relatively little impact on the North Atlantic. There are also significant differences in the extratropical response of the models to the same tropical SST anomalies due to differences in numerical and physical parameterizations. Differences due to parameterizations dominate in the North Atlantic. Differences in the control climates of the two coupled models from the current climate, in particular for the coupled model containing CCM3, are also demonstrated to be important in leading to differences in extratropical regional sensitivity.

The TGR5 receptor mediates bile acid-induced itch and analgesia

Patients with cholestatic disease exhibit pruritus and analgesia, but the mechanisms underlying these symptoms are unknown. We report that bile acids, which are elevated in the circulation and tissues during cholestasis, cause itch and analgesia by activating the GPCR TGR5. TGR5 was detected in peptidergic neurons of mouse dorsal root ganglia and spinal cord that transmit itch and pain, and in dermal macrophages that contain opioids. Bile acids and a TGR5-selective agonist induced hyperexcitability of dorsal root ganglia neurons and stimulated the release of the itch and analgesia transmitters gastrin-releasing peptide and leucine-enkephalin. Intradermal injection of bile acids and a TGR5-selective agonist stimulated scratching behavior by gastrin-releasing peptide- and opioid-dependent mechanisms in mice. Scratching was attenuated in Tgr5-KO mice but exacerbated in Tgr5-Tg mice (overexpressing mouse TGR5), which exhibited spontaneous pruritus. Intraplantar and intrathecal injection of bile acids caused analgesia to mechanical stimulation of the paw by an opioid-dependent mechanism. Both peripheral and central mechanisms of analgesia were absent from Tgr5-KO mice. Thus, bile acids activate TGR5 on sensory nerves, stimulating the release of neuropeptides in the spinal cord that transmit itch and analgesia. These mechanisms could contribute to pruritus and painless jaundice that occur during cholestatic liver diseases.

Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches

This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addresses the use of decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system. External forcing influences the predictions throughout, but their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most of the improved skill from initialization with observations vanishes after about six to nine years. Recent multi-model results suggest that there is relatively more decadal predictive skill in the North Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans than in other regions of the world oceans. Aspects of decadal variability of SSTs, like the mid-1970s shift in the Pacific, the mid-1990s shift in the northern North Atlantic and western Pacific, and the early-2000s hiatus, are better represented in initialized hindcasts compared to uninitialized simulations. There is evidence of higher skill in initialized multi-model ensemble decadal hindcasts than in single model results, with multi-model initialized predictions for near term climate showing somewhat less global warming than uninitialized simulations. Some decadal hindcasts have shown statistically reliable predictions of surface temperature over various land and ocean regions for lead times of up to 6-9 years, but this needs to be investigated in a wider set of models. As in the early days of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction, improvements to models will reduce the need for bias adjustment, and increase the reliability, and thus usefulness, of decadal climate predictions in the future.

Updating existing emotional memories involves the frontopolar/orbitofrontal cortex in ways that acquiring new emotional memories does not

In life, we must often learn new associations to people, places, or things we already know. The current fMRI study investigated the neural mechanisms underlying emotional memory updating. Nineteen participants first viewed negative and neutral pictures and learned associations between those pictures and other neutral stimuli, such as neutral objects and encoding tasks. This initial learning phase was followed by a memory updating phase, during which participants learned picture-location associations for old pictures (i.e., pictures previously associated with other neutral stimuli) and new pictures (i.e., pictures not seen in the first phase). There was greater frontopolar/orbito-frontal (OFC) activity when people learned picture–location associations for old negative pictures than for new negative pictures, but frontopolar OFC activity did not significantly differ during learning locations of old versus new neutral pictures. In addition, frontopolar activity was more negatively correlated with the amygdala when participants learned picture–location associations for old negative pictures than for new negative or old neutral pictures. Past studies revealed that the frontopolar OFC allows for updating the affective values of stimuli in reversal learning or extinction of conditioning [e.g., Izquierdo, A., & Murray, E. A. Opposing effects of amygdala and orbital PFC lesions on the extinction of instrumental responding in macaque monkeys. European Journal of Neuroscience, 22, 2341–2346, 2005]; our findings suggest that it plays a more general role in updating associations to emotional stimuli.

Amygdala functional connectivity with medial prefrontal cortex at rest predicts the positivity effect in older adults’ memory

As people get older, they tend to remember more positive than negative information. This age-by-valence interaction has been called “positivity effect.” The current study addressed the hypotheses that baseline functional connectivity at rest is predictive of older adults' brain activity when learning emotional information and their positivity effect in memory. Using fMRI, we examined the relationship among resting-state functional connectivity, subsequent brain activity when learning emotional faces, and individual differences in the positivity effect (the relative tendency to remember faces expressing positive vs. negative emotions). Consistent with our hypothesis, older adults with a stronger positivity effect had increased functional coupling between amygdala and medial PFC (MPFC) during rest. In contrast, younger adults did not show the association between resting connectivity and memory positivity. A similar age-by-memory positivity interaction was also found when learning emotional faces. That is, memory positivity in older adults was associated with (a) enhanced MPFC activity when learning emotional faces and (b) increased negative functional coupling between amygdala and MPFC when learning negative faces. In contrast, memory positivity in younger adults was related to neither enhanced MPFC activity to emotional faces, nor MPFC–amygdala connectivity to negative faces. Furthermore, stronger MPFC–amygdala connectivity during rest was predictive of subsequent greater MPFC activity when learning emotional faces. Thus, emotion–memory interaction in older adults depends not only on the task-related brain activity but also on the baseline functional connectivity.

Sex differences in reward-related decision processing under stress

Recent research indicates gender differences in the impact of stress on decision behavior, but little is known about the brain mechanisms involved in these gender-specific stress effects. The current study used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to determine whether induced stress resulted in gender-specific patterns of brain activation during a decision task involving monetary reward. Specifically, we manipulated physiological stress levels using a cold pressor task, prior to a risky decision making task. Healthy men (n = 24, 12 stressed) and women (n = 23, 11 stressed) completed the decision task after either cold pressor stress or a control task during the period of cortisol response to the cold pressor. Gender differences in behavior were present in stressed participants but not controls, such that stress led to greater reward collection and faster decision speed in males but less reward collection and slower decision speed in females. A gender-by-stress interaction was observed for the dorsal striatum and anterior insula. With cold stress, activation in these regions was increased in males but decreased in females. The findings of this study indicate that the impact of stress on reward-related decision processing differs depending on gender.

Beyond arousal and valence: the importance of the biological versus social relevance of emotional stimuli

The present study addressed the hypothesis that emotional stimuli relevant to survival or reproduction (biologically emotional stimuli) automatically affect cognitive processing (e.g., attention, memory), while those relevant to social life (socially emotional stimuli) require elaborative processing to modulate attention and memory. Results of our behavioral studies showed that (1) biologically emotional images hold attention more strongly than do socially emotional images, (2) memory for biologically emotional images was enhanced even with limited cognitive resources, but (3) memory for socially emotional images was enhanced only when people had sufficient cognitive resources at encoding. Neither images’ subjective arousal nor their valence modulated these patterns. A subsequent functional magnetic resonance imaging study revealed that biologically emotional images induced stronger activity in the visual cortex and greater functional connectivity between the amygdala and visual cortex than did socially emotional images. These results suggest that the interconnection between the amygdala and visual cortex supports enhanced attention allocation to biological stimuli. In contrast, socially emotional images evoked greater activity in the medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) and yielded stronger functional connectivity between the amygdala and MPFC than did biological images. Thus, it appears that emotional processing of social stimuli involves elaborative processing requiring frontal lobe activity.

Emotion strengthens high priority memory traces but weakens low priority memory traces

When people encounter emotional events, their memory for those events is typically enhanced. But it has been unclear how emotionally arousing events influence memory for preceding information. Does emotional arousal induce retrograde amnesia or retrograde enhancement? The current study revealed that this depends on the top-down goal relevance of the preceding information. Across three studies, we found that emotional arousal induced by one image facilitated memory for the preceding neutral item when people prioritized that neutral item. In contrast, an emotionally arousing image impaired memory for the preceding neutral item when people did not prioritize that neutral item. Emotional arousal elicited by both negative and positive pictures showed this pattern of enhancing or impairing memory for the preceding stimulus depending on its priority. These results indicate that emotional arousal amplifies the effects of top-down priority in memory formation.

On the lack of stratospheric dynamical variability in low-top versions of the CMIP5 models

We describe the main differences in simulations of stratospheric climate and variability by models within the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that have a model top above the stratopause and relatively fine stratospheric vertical resolution (high-top), and those that have a model top below the stratopause (low-top). Although the simulation of mean stratospheric climate by the two model ensembles is similar, the low-top model ensemble has very weak stratospheric variability on daily and interannual time scales. The frequency of major sudden stratospheric warming events is strongly underestimated by the low-top models with less than half the frequency of events observed in the reanalysis data and high-top models. The lack of stratospheric variability in the low-top models affects their stratosphere-troposphere coupling, resulting in short-lived anomalies in the Northern Annular Mode, which do not produce long-lasting tropospheric impacts, as seen in observations. The lack of stratospheric variability, however, does not appear to have any impact on the ability of the low-top models to reproduce past stratospheric temperature trends. We find little improvement in the simulation of decadal variability for the high-top models compared to the low-top, which is likely related to the fact that neither ensemble produces a realistic dynamical response to volcanic eruptions.

Triboelectric charging of volcanic ash from the 2011 Grímsvötn eruption

The plume from the 2011 eruption of Grímsvötn was highly electrically charged, as shown by the considerable lightning activity measured by the United Kingdom Met Office’s low-frequency lightning detection network. Previous measurements of volcanic plumes have shown that ash particles are electrically charged up to hundreds of kilometers away from the vent, which indicates that the ash continues to charge in the plume [R. G. Harrison, K. A. Nicoll, Z. Ulanowski, and T. A. Mather, Environ. Res. Lett. 5 024004 (2010); H. Hatakeyama J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. 27 372 (1949)]. In this Letter, we study triboelectric charging of different size fractions of a sample of volcanic ash experimentally. Consistently with previous work, we find that the particle size distribution is a determining factor in the charging. Specifically, our laboratory experiments demonstrate that the normalized span of the particle size distribution plays an important role in the magnitude of charging generated. The influence of the normalized span on plume charging suggests that all ash plumes are likely to be charged, with implications for remote sensing and plume lifetime through scavenging effects.

Measuring large topographic change with InSAR: lava thicknesses, extrusion rate and subsidence rate at Santiaguito volcano, Guatemala

Lava flows can produce changes in topography on the order of 10s-100s of metres. A knowledge of the resulting volume change provides evidence about the dynamics of an eruption. We present a method to measure topographic changes from the differential InSAR phase delays caused by the height differences between the current topography and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM). This does not require a pre-event SAR image, so it does not rely on interferometric phase remaining coherent during eruption and emplacement. Synthetic tests predicts that we can estimate lava thickness of as little as �9 m, given a minimum of 5 interferograms with suitably large orbital baseine separations. In the case of continuous motion, such as lava flow subsidence, we invert interferometric phase simultaneously for topographic change and displacement. We demonstrate the method using data from Santiaguito volcano, Guatemala, and measure increases in lava thickness of up to 140 m between 2000 and 2009, largely associated with activity between 2000 and 2005. We find a mean extrusion rate of 0.43 +/- 0.06 m3/s, which lies within the error bounds of the longer term extrusion rate between 1922-2000. The thickest and youngest parts of the flow deposit were shown to be subsiding at an average rate of �-6 cm/yr. This is the first time that flow thickness and subsidence have been measured simultaneously. We expect this method to be suitable for measurment of landslides and other mass flow deposits as well as lava flows.