Expert judgement in the processes of commercial property market forecasting

In this paper we investigate the role of judgement in the formation of forecasts in commercial real estate markets. Based on interview surveys with the majority of forecast producers, we find that real estate forecasters are using a range of inputs and data sets to form models to predict an array of variables for a range of locations. The findings suggest that forecasts need to be acceptable to their users (and purchasers) and consequently forecasters generally have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. Where extreme forecasts are generated by a model, forecasters often engage in ‘self-censorship’ or are ‘censored’ following in-house consultation. It is concluded that the forecasting process is more complex than merely carrying out econometric modelling and that the impact of the influences within this process vary considerably across different organizational contexts.

The urban female labour market in Latin America: the myth and the reality

Includes bibliography

Changes in the urban female labour market

Includes bibliography

Non-market valuation of natural and environmental resources in Central America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

The labour market and income distribution in Colombia in the 1990s

Includes bibliography

Surveys on time use and unpaid work in Latin America and the Caribbean: Experience to date and challenges for the future

Incluye bibliografía.

The forestry and cellulose sector in the Province of Concepción, Chile: Production linkages between the Secano Interior and industry in Greater Concepción, or an enclave economy?

Includes bibliography.

Estimating the number of whales entering trade using DNA profiling and capture-recapture analysis of market products

Surveys of commercial markets combined with molecular taxonomy (i.e. molecular monitoring) provide a means to detect products from illegal, unregulated and/or unreported (IUU) exploitation, including the sale of fisheries bycatch and wild meat (bushmeat). Capture-recapture analyses of market products using DNA profiling have the potential to estimate the total number of individuals entering the market. However, these analyses are not directly analogous to those of living individuals because a ‘market individual’ does not die suddenly but, instead, remains available for a time in decreasing quantities, rather like the exponential decay of a radioactive isotope. Here we use mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences and microsatellite genotypes to individually identify products from North Pacific minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata ssp.) purchased in 12 surveys of markets in the Republic of (South) Korea from 1999 to 2003. By applying a novel capture-recapture model with a decay rate parameter to the 205 unique DNA profiles found among 289 products, we estimated that the total number of whales entering trade across the five-year survey period was 827 (SE, 164; CV, 0.20) and that the average ‘half-life’ of products from an individual whale on the market was 1.82 months (SE, 0.24; CV, 0.13). Our estimate of whales in trade (reflecting the true numbers killed) was significantly greater than the officially reported bycatch of 458 whales for this period. This unregulated exploitation has serious implications for the survival of this genetically distinct coastal population. Although our capture-recapture model was developed for specific application to the Korean whale-meat markets, the exponential decay function could be modified to improve the estimates of trade in other wildmeat or fisheries markets or abundance of living populations by noninvasive genotyping.

Quinoa production in the Nor Lipez province (Bolivia): Gender roles in export-led agriculture and challenges for research on rural employment

The recent increase in prices and production of quinoa have had important effects on the employment structures and livelihoods of rural communities in the Nor Lipez Province (Bolivia). The "quinoa boom" resulted in significant changes in household incomes and in gender roles in the context of increasing market integration. The nature of these changes however is not easy to grasp, as new official narratives on gender and on traditional systems of labour divisions and shared access to land have surfaced since the election of Evo Morales (2006) and the adoption of a new constitution (2009). Furthermore, rural employment is found to be much more diverse than the term suggests. Women have always participated in the production of quinoa when it was widely considered as a subsistence crop. Our research takes place in the Nor Lipez Province, Bolivia with exploratory studies that were conducted in January and February 2015 in 8 rural communities of quinoa producers. Preliminary results suggest positive effects for local women in that they managed to earn additional income which might have contributed to their empowerment. This article will present both preliminary results, challenges for gender-oriented research in Bolivia and the methodology aiming to capture changes at the individual, the household and the community level through a survey that will be conducted from September to November 2015 in 500 households.

Cadena de valor de papas nativas (Solanum andigenum sp.) en la provincia de Jauja, Perú

La Asamblea General de la ONU, a solicitud del gobierno peruano, declara en el año 2008 el Año Internacional de la Papa, (AIP). Desde el año 2005, el gobierno peruano ha puesto en marcha estrategias en torno a la importancia de la papa, como la declaración del 30 de Mayo como el Día Nacional de la Papa. El año 2014 es declarado por la FAO, (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), Año Internacional de la Agricultura Familiar, con un enfoque compartido por esta Tesis Doctoral en el apoyo a la familia campesina peruana. El gobierno peruano utiliza las cadenas de valor como una estrategia de promoción de desarrollo sostenible, que ha permitido contribuir a la inclusión social y económica de productores pobres de zonas alto andinas, como las localizadas en la mancomunidad municipal del Yacus, (MMY), provincia de Jauja, departamento de Junín. Esta estrategia, en la que el mercado incorpora a los pequeños agricultores de las zonas altas de los Andes, (que disponen de recursos económicos muy bajos), en procesos productivos rentables, implica una serie de cambios a realizar, como la transformación de los patrones de producción tradicional hacia aquellos productos o servicios que tienen demanda en el mercado, o la variación de la mentalidad del agricultor pequeño hacia una concepción empresarial de su producción. (Fabián, 2013). Por otra parte, la sostenibilidad de las cadenas de valor depende del eslabón más débil, lo que obliga a conocer la situación de todos los eslabones para poder integrar y reforzar la cadena. Se requiere un sistema de transparencia adecuado que facilite el flujo de la información entre los distintos eslabones. (Briz et al., 2012). Además, el establecimiento de la cadena de valor debe hacerse con cuidado, ya que la eficacia y supervivencia de las empresas están cada vez más ligadas a la cadena de valor a la que pertenece y a la coordinación de la misma. (Briz, 2011). En esta situación, adquiere importancia el estudio de la cadena de valor de la papa nativa, para una vez establecidas sus características, poder determinar la viabilidad o no de una cadena de valor de este producto que repercuta parte de la riqueza generada en los pequeños agricultores alto andinos, e incluso, de su extensión hasta España. Existen estudios sobre las papas nativas, realizadas por diferentes universidades de distintos países, e incluso, de diferentes continentes. Sin embargo, la mayoría de los estudios se centran en la mejora de la producción de la papa nativa. La novedad de la investigación realizada en la presente Tesis Doctoral radica en el estudio de la viabilidad de la comercialización de la papa nativa, mediante el establecimiento de una cadena de valor que se inicie en la provincia de Jauja, Perú, y finalice tanto en los mercados peruanos de las regiones de Junín y Lima, como en España. El objetivo planteado en esta investigación es la mejora de las condiciones económicas y sociales de las comunidades agrícolas de la provincia de Jauja en el Perú, así como fomentar su desarrollo tecnológico e industrial, mediante el fomento de la cadena de valor de la papa nativa y sus derivados. Se establecen como objetivos específicos la caracterización de los eslabones de la cadena de valor de la papa nativa y sus derivados en la provincia de Jauja del Perú y en España, de manera que se determine el valor agregado en los mismos; el fortalecimiento de las organizaciones de productores de papas nativas para la comercialización de sus producciones y para el fomento de la cultura empresarial; y el desarrollo de una cadena de comercialización papas nativas y sus derivados con origen en la Provincia de Jauja, Perú, y que finalice en España, con la venta al consumidor español. Para alcanzar estos objetivos la metodología utilizada es la cadena de valor agroalimentaria, utilizando como herramientas de análisis el análisis DAFO de la cadena de valor de la papa nativa. Las fuentes de información primarias utilizadas proceden en parte del proyecto de cooperación de UPM, “Mejora de la cadena de valor de la patata andina como impulso al desarrollo rural. Caso de tres Comunidades Campesinas en la Provincia de Jauja del Perú”, en el que participó el doctorando, y en parte proceden de la batería de encuestas específicamente diseñadas para los diferentes eslabones de la cadena de valor de la papa nativa. Las fuentes de información secundarias proceden de artículos académicos publicados, de artículos publicados por revistas especializadas del sector y de informes realizados por diferentes instituciones gubernamentales, tanto españolas como peruanas. Las conclusiones de la investigación son las siguientes. La creación de la mancomunidad del Yacus ha beneficiado a los pequeños agricultores. Estos consiguen mejores condiciones de venta y mejores precios para sus productos, lo que repercute en la mejora de sus condiciones de vida. Estas mejoras en las condiciones de venta de los productos se deben a su pertenencia a una cadena de valor de papa nativa que está funcionando de forma eficaz. Las empresas consideradas para constituir la cadena de valor han mostrado interés por formar parte de ella: los campesinos para obtener mejores precios por sus productos y unas mejores condiciones de venta; los distribuidores para asegurarse una calidad determinada de unas variedades fijas de papa nativa; la industria transformadora por disponer de un suministro de producto adecuado al derivado de papa nativa correspondiente, (hojuelas, tunta, etc.); las empresas exportadoras para tener suministro garantizado de los productos que ellos requieren en los volúmenes adecuados. Es una situación ventajosa para todas las empresas participantes. A pesar de trabajar con un producto tradicional, la cadena de valor de la papa nativa presenta innovación en los productos comercializados, tanto en la papa nativa fresca como en sus derivados, en los formatos de los productos, en la red de distribución, en las instituciones peruanas y en el consumidor final. Se percibe una demanda de papa nativa y de sus productos derivados en aquellos países donde existen comunidades de latinoamericanos que han emigrado de sus países de origen. España está entre los países que han acogido a un importante número de personas de origen latinoamericano. A pesar de la fuerte crisis económica sufrida por España, que ha llevado consigo la vuelta a sus países de origen de parte de su comunidad latinoamericana, el tamaño de esta población sigue siendo importante. Esta población demanda productos originarios de sus propios países, y los consumirían de forma frecuente si los precios son adecuados a su capacidad de consumo. El precio de venta de la papa nativa y sus derivados en España es de gran importancia. La importación de estos productos desde Perú hace que este eleve a niveles que le resta competitividad, en especial en la papa fresca. Se aconseja la búsqueda de empresas que puedan adaptar la producción de la papa fresca de forma local, y mantener para los derivados la exportación directa a España. Las preferencias de los consumidores peruanos y españoles en cuanto a formatos y marcas se refieren no son coincidentes. De las encuestas realizadas, se concluye que no puede seguirse la misma estrategia de marketing en ambos países, debiéndose diferenciar los formatos de los paquetes de la papa nativa y de sus derivados en España y en Perú, para así lograr llegar a los consumidores potenciales de ambos países. ABSTRACT At the request of the Peruvian government, the UN General Assembly declared the International Year of the Potato in 2008. Since 2005, the Peruvian government has implemented strategies around the importance of the potato, as the declaration of the 30th of May as the National Day of the Potato. FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) has declared 2014 as the International Year of Family Farming, with an approach shared by this Ph.D. dissertation about the Peruvian peasant family. The Peruvian government uses value chains as a strategy to promote sustainable development, which has allowed to contribute to the social and economic inclusion of poor farmers in the high Andean regions as those located in the municipal commonwealth of Yacus (MMY) province of Jauja, department of Junín. This strategy, which incorporates small farmers in the high Andean regions, (who have very low income), to the market with profitable production processes, implies a number of changes that should take place, such as changing patterns of traditional production to those products or services that are in demand in the market, or changes in the mentality of the small farmer into a concept of production business. (Fabián, 2013). Moreover, the sustainability of value chains depends on the weakest link, which demands a knowledge of the status of all the links, in order to integrate and strengthen the chain. It is required an adequate transparency to facilitate the flow of information between the various actors. (Briz et al., 2012). Furthermore, the establishment of the value chain should be done carefully, since the effectiveness and the survival of the businesses are increasingly linked to the value chain where the firm is included and to its coordination. (Briz, 2011). In this situation, it becomes important to study the value chain of the native potato, once we establish its features, to be able to determine the feasibility or not of a value chain of this product, which has an impact of the generated wealth in small farms of the high Andean regions, and even the extension of this value chain to Spain. There are studies on native potatoes, made by different universities in several countries and even in more than one continent. However, most studies focus on improving the production of native potato. The originality of the research conducted in this Ph.D. dissertation is the study of the feasibility of commercialization of native potato, by the creation of a value chain that starts in the province of Jauja, Perú, and ends both in Peruvian markets in the region of Lima, and in Spain. The main goal of this research is to improve the economic and social conditions of farming communities in the province of Jauja in Perú, while promoting its technological and industrial development, by the establishment of a value chain of the native potato and derivatives. The specific objectives of the research are the characterization of the links in the value chain of the native potato and its derivatives in the province of Jauja, (Perú) and in Spain, in order to determine the added value; the strengthening of organizations of native potato producers, to commercialize their products and the promotion of enterprise culture; and the development of a chain to market native potato and its derivatives, with its origin in the province of Jauja, (Perú), and its end in Spain, with the sale to the Spanish consumer. In order to achieve these objectives, the used methodology is the agrifood value chain, using as a tool to analysis it the SWOT analysis of the value chain of the native potato. The primary sources of information used in the research come partly from UPM cooperation project, "Improving the value chain of Andean potato as a boost to rural development. Case Three Rural Communities in the Province of Jauja, (Perú)", in which the Ph.D. student was involved, and partly from the surveys, which were specifically designed for the different links of the value chain of the native potato. The secondary sources of information come from academic articles, from articles published by magazines of the industry, and from reports of several government institutions, both Spanish and Peruvian. The conclusions of the research are as follows. The creation of the commonwealth of Yacus has benefited small farmers. They get better sales conditions and better prices for their products, which results in the improvement of their living conditions. These improvements are due to a value chain of native potato which is working effectively. All the firms invited to constitute the value chain have shown interest in being part of it: the farmers to get better prices for their products and better sale conditions; the distributors to ensure a certain quality of fixed varieties of native potato, the processing industry in order to have an adequate supply of product to the corresponding derivative of native potato (chips, “tunta”, etc.); exporting firms to have a guaranteed supply of the products that they require with the right volumes. It's a win-win situation for all participating companies. Despite being a traditional product, the value chain of the native potato presents innovation in marketed products, (both fresh native potato and its derivatives), in the formats of products, in the distribution network, in Peruvian institutions and in relation with the consumer. There is a perceived demand of native potato and its products in countries where communities of Latin Americans have settled down. Spain is among the countries that have received a significant number of people from Latin America. Despite the strong economic crisis suffered by Spain, which has lead to a return to their home countries of part of the Latin American community, the size of this population is still considerable. This population demands products from their own countries, and they frequently consume them if the prices are suitable to their standard of living. The selling price of the native potato and its derivatives in Spain is of great importance. The import of these products from Perú makes the prices rise to levels that reduce competitiveness, especially in fresh native potatoes. It is advised to look for companies which can adapt the fresh potato production in our country, and keep direct export to Spain for the derivatives products. The preferences of Peruvian and Spanish consumers in terms of formats and brands are not the same. The surveys concluded that the same marketing strategy cannot be followed in both countries. Packet formats of native potato and its derivatives should be differentiated in Spain and Perú, in order to reach the potential consumers of both countries.

The optimal allocation rule and the water market as the most effective tools of managing water shortage in an irrigation district

The conference program will cover all areas of environmental and resource economics, ranging from topics prevailing in the general debate, such as climate change, energy sources, water management and ecosystem services evaluation, to more specialized subjects such as biodiversity conservation or persistent organic pollutants. The congress will be held on the Faculty of Economics of the University of Girona, located in Montilivi, a city quarter situated just few minutes from the city center, conveniently connected by bus lines L8 and L11.

Projeto Aplicado “Acácias Perfume”

O presente trabalho, visa implementar uma perfumaria na província de Benguela-Angola, e tem como objetivo identificar a relevância da mesma e aferir a viabilidade económica e financeira do negócio. O setor da perfumaria e cosméticos ainda são dos menos competitivos em Benguela, contudo o segmento desta junção apresenta uma enorme margem de progressão, pois a oferta ainda é escassa, e existe uma tendência de se procurar cada vez mais estes produtos. A ideia surgiu devido a presença de uma realidade precária na oferta e procura desses produtos naquela província em geral, para além disso, alia-se o facto de não existir nenhuma perfumaria na zona onde se pretende instalar a perfumaria. Como tal, entendeu-se estar perante uma boa oportunidade de negócio. Os meios financeiros necessários foram de, 70% de capitais próprios e 30% através de empréstimo bancário, a uma taxa de juro anual de 14%. O montante total do financiamento foi de 15 306 060,00 AOA. Com base em estudos científicos, pesquisas de campo, livros, entrevistas a pessoas singulares e coletivas, e um plano financeiro aplicado bem elaborado, obtivemos resultados satisfatórios principalmente se analisarmos os três critérios de avaliação mais preponderantes de um projeto aplicado tais como o valor atual líquido de 617 051 187,75 AOA, taxa interna de rentabilidade de 56,40%, e é expectável que o período de recuperação do investimento seja aproximadamente de 3 anos. Consequentemente, foram utilizadas técnicas estratégicas académicas focadas nas características do mercado que apresentaram boas perspetivas futuras através de uma relação entre a visão do investimento o custo de oportunidade do negócio. Portanto, conclui-se que é um investimento viável, devido a características do mercado e os recursos tangíveis e intangíveis que nele ostentam, bem como as perspetivas futuras de sustentabilidade que a mesma apresenta.

Analysis of the Billings, Montana housing market, as of December 1, 1970 /

"March 1971."

Analysis of the St. Louis, Missouri-Illinois housing market, as of July 1, 1970 /

"December 1970."

Changing demographics cause shift in market share.

Mode of access: Internet.