Some statistical aspects of the long-term gill net monitoring programme for pike Esox lucius in Windermere (English Lake District)

For more than 55 years, data have been collected on the population of pike Esox lucius in Windermere, first by the Freshwater Biological Association (FBA) and, since 1989, by the Institute of Freshwater Ecology (IFE) of the NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. The aim of this article is to explore some methodological and statistical issues associated with the precision of pike gill net catches and catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data, further to those examined by Bagenal (1972) and especially in the light of the current deployment within the Windermere long-term sampling programme. Specifically, consideration is given to the precision of catch estimates from gill netting, including the effects of sampling different locations, the effectiveness of sampling for distinguishing between years, and the effects of changing fishing effort.

Dangeardia sporapiculata n.sp., the term 'apiculus' and the species limitation of some chytrids [Translation from: Sydowia 16 324-330, 1963]

Taxonomic observations are given on Dangeardia sporapiculata n. sp. Furthermore the term 'apiculus' and the species limitation of some chytrids are being discussed. It is concluded that the newly described species Dangeardia sporapiculata does not fit satisfactorily into the present system of phlyctidiacee, because their characteristics do not agree exactly with any genus.

Range of validity of the method of averaging

Sufficient conditions are derived for the validity of approximate periodic solutions of a class of second order ordinary nonlinear differential equations. An approximate solution is defined to be valid if an exact solution exists in a neighborhood of the approximation.

Two classes of validity criteria are developed. Existence is obtained using the contraction mapping principle in one case, and the Schauder-Leray fixed point theorem in the other. Both classes of validity criteria make use of symmetry properties of periodic functions, and both classes yield an upper bound on a norm of the difference between the approximate and exact solution. This bound is used in a procedure which establishes sufficient stability conditions for the approximated solution.

Application to a system with piecewise linear restoring force (bilinear system) reveals that the approximate solution obtained by the method of averaging is valid away from regions where the response exhibits vertical tangents. A narrow instability region is obtained near one-half the natural frequency of the equivalent linear system. Sufficient conditions for the validity of resonant solutions are also derived, and two term harmonic balance approximate solutions which exhibit ultraharmonic and subharmonic resonances are studied.

Long-term natural acidification of upland sites in Cumbria: Evidence from post-glacial lake sediments

Studies by the Freshwater Biological Association over the last 25 years have supplied data relevant to the levels of acidity in local soils and water before the onset of industrial pollution and current interest in acid rain. This article reviews published analysis from cores of lake sediments, in or near the catchment of the River Duddon. Electron spin resonance spectra of humic acids and iodine values confirm evidence from pollen analysis for a history of progressive acidification of the source material of lake sediments since before 5000 radiocarbon years, in upland catchments of the Lake District. Processes involved included: removal of basic ions from soils by rainfall, the effects of which were intensified by removal by man of deciduous forest; acidification of soils and waters by decomposition products of Calluna and further acidification of waters by Sphagnum species which colonized habitats where drainage became impeded by paludification processes.

Estimation of catalyst activity profiles and deactivation parameters from reactor operating data with applications to naphtha reforming

Techniques are developed for estimating activity profiles in fixed bed reactors and catalyst deactivation parameters from operating reactor data. These techniques are applicable, in general, to most industrial catalytic processes. The catalytic reforming of naphthas is taken as a broad example to illustrate the estimation schemes and to signify the physical meaning of the kinetic parameters of the estimation equations. The work is described in two parts. Part I deals with the modeling of kinetic rate expressions and the derivation of the working equations for estimation. Part II concentrates on developing various estimation techniques.

Part I: The reactions used to describe naphtha reforming are dehydrogenation and dehydroisomerization of cycloparaffins; isomerization, dehydrocyclization and hydrocracking of paraffins; and the catalyst deactivation reactions, namely coking on alumina sites and sintering of platinum crystallites. The rate expressions for the above reactions are formulated, and the effects of transport limitations on the overall reaction rates are discussed in the appendices. Moreover, various types of interaction between the metallic and acidic active centers of reforming catalysts are discussed as characterizing the different types of reforming reactions.

Part II: In catalytic reactor operation, the activity distribution along the reactor determines the kinetics of the main reaction and is needed for predicting the effect of changes in the feed state and the operating conditions on the reactor output. In the case of a monofunctional catalyst and of bifunctional catalysts in limiting conditions, the cumulative activity is sufficient for predicting steady reactor output. The estimation of this cumulative activity can be carried out easily from measurements at the reactor exit. For a general bifunctional catalytic system, the detailed activity distribution is needed for describing the reactor operation, and some approximation must be made to obtain practicable estimation schemes. This is accomplished by parametrization techniques using measurements at a few points along the reactor. Such parametrization techniques are illustrated numerically with a simplified model of naphtha reforming.

To determine long term catalyst utilization and regeneration policies, it is necessary to estimate catalyst deactivation parameters from the the current operating data. For a first order deactivation model with a monofunctional catalyst or with a bifunctional catalyst in special limiting circumstances, analytical techniques are presented to transform the partial differential equations to ordinary differential equations which admit more feasible estimation schemes. Numerical examples include the catalytic oxidation of butene to butadiene and a simplified model of naphtha reforming. For a general bifunctional system or in the case of a monofunctional catalyst subject to general power law deactivation, the estimation can only be accomplished approximately. The basic feature of an appropriate estimation scheme involves approximating the activity profile by certain polynomials and then estimating the deactivation parameters from the integrated form of the deactivation equation by regression techniques. Different bifunctional systems must be treated by different estimation algorithms, which are illustrated by several cases of naphtha reforming with different feed or catalyst composition.

Approximate analytical description for fundamental-mode fields of graded-index fibers: Beyond the Gaussian approximation

An approximate analytical description for fundamental-mode fields of graded-index fibers is explicitly presented by use of the power-series expansion method, the maximum-value condition at the fiber axis, the decay properties of fundamental-mode fields at large distance from the fiber axis, and the approximate modal parameters U obtained from the Gaussian approximation. This analytical description is much more accurate than the Gaussian approximation and at the same time keep the simplicity of the latter. As two special examples, we present the approximate analytical formulas for the fundamental-mode fields of a step profile fiber and a Gaussian profile fiber, and we find that they are both highly accurate in the single-mode range by comparing them with the corresponding exact solutions.

Corrections to the paraxial approximation of an arbitrary free-propagation beam

A relatively simple transform from an arbitrary solution of the paraxial wave equation to the corresponding exact solution of the Helmholtz wave equation is derived in the condition that the evanescent waves are ignored and is used to study the corrections to the paraxial approximation of an arbitrary free-propagation beam. Specifically, the general lowest-order correction field is given in a very simple form and is proved to be exactly consistent with the perturbation method developed by Lax et nl. [Phys. Rev. A 11, 1365 (1975)]. Some special examples, such as the lowest-order correction to the paraxial approximation of a fundamental Gaussian beam whose waist plane has a parallel shin from the z = 0 plane, are presented. (C) 1998 Optical Society of America.

Corrections to the paraxial approximation solutions in transversely nonuniform refractive-index media

The coupled differential recurrence equations for the corrections to the paraxial approximation solutions in transversely nonuniform refractive-index media are established in terms of the perturbation method. All the corrections (including the longitudinal field corrections) to the paraxial approximation solutions are presented in the weak-guidance approximation. As a concrete application, the first-order longitudinal field correction and the second-order transverse field correction to the paraxial approximation of a Gaussian beam propagating in a transversely quadratic refractive index medium are analytically investigated. (C) 1999 Optical Society of America [S0740-3232(99)00310-5].

Is there a subgroup of long-term evolution among patients with advanced lung cancer?: Hints from the analysis of survival curves from cancer registry data

Background: Recently, with the access of low toxicity biological and targeted therapies, evidence of the existence of a long-term survival subpopulation of cancer patients is appearing. We have studied an unselected population with advanced lung cancer to look for evidence of multimodality in survival distribution, and estimate the proportion of long-term survivors. Methods: We used survival data of 4944 patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) stages IIIb-IV at diagnostic, registered in the National Cancer Registry of Cuba (NCRC) between January 1998 and December 2006. We fitted one-component survival model and two-component mixture models to identify short-and long-term survivors. Bayesian information criterion was used for model selection. Results: For all of the selected parametric distributions the two components model presented the best fit. The population with short-term survival (almost 4 months median survival) represented 64% of patients. The population of long-term survival included 35% of patients, and showed a median survival around 12 months. None of the patients of short-term survival was still alive at month 24, while 10% of the patients of long-term survival died afterwards. Conclusions: There is a subgroup showing long-term evolution among patients with advanced lung cancer. As survival rates continue to improve with the new generation of therapies, prognostic models considering short-and long-term survival subpopulations should be considered in clinical research.