Analysis of metabolic pools in broilers chicks

This paper shows the possibility of obtaining new parameters for the mathematical modelling of data on stable isotopes in biological systems and its application in obtaining data on metabolic pools of blood plasma, blood serum, liver and muscle of broilers. This theory states that the modelling of turnover used for studies of isotopic incorporation when the metabolism has a single metabolic pool is feasible by the technique of setting an exponential. However, when the metabolism has more than one metabolic pool, it is necessary to apply the linearization technique, linear regression adjustment and evaluation of the assumptions of regression to obtain the kinetic parameters such as half-life (T1/2) and isotope exchange rate (k). The application of this technique on carbon-13 data from 100 one-day-old chicks, with the change of diet composed of grains of the photosynthetic cycle of plants from C4 to C3, in broilers has enabled the discovery that the liver, blood plasma and blood serum have a single metabolic pool; however, the pectoral muscle has two metabolic pools. For the liver, blood plasma and blood serum, the half-life values were found by the exponential fit being T1/2 = 1.4 days with the rate of exchange of k = 0.502, T1/2 = 2.4 days with k = 0.293 and T1/2 = 2.0 days with k = 0.348, respectively. For the pectoral muscle, after linearization, the half-life values were found for T1/2(1) = 1.7 and T1/2(2) = 3 days, with exchange rates of k1 = 0.405 and k2 = 0.235, representing approximately 66 and 34 %, respectively.

Previsão de demanda de veículos automotores através do modelo de regressão linear múltipla

This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

Previsão de demanda de veículos automotores através do modelo de regressão linear múltipla

This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

Bartlett corrections in Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models

Lemonte and Cordeiro [Birnbaum-Saunders nonlinear regression models, Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 53 (2009), pp. 4441-4452] introduced a class of Birnbaum-Saunders (BS) nonlinear regression models potentially useful in lifetime data analysis. We give a general matrix Bartlett correction formula to improve the likelihood ratio (LR) tests in these models. The formula is simple enough to be used analytically to obtain several closed-form expressions in special cases. Our results generalize those in Lemonte et al. [Improved likelihood inference in Birnbaum-Saunders regressions, Comput. Stat. DataAnal. 54 (2010), pp. 1307-1316], which hold only for the BS linear regression models. We consider Monte Carlo simulations to show that the corrected tests work better than the usual LR tests.

Response plateau models fitting via isotonic regression

Within the nutritional context, the supplementation of microminerals in bird food is often made in quantities exceeding those required in the attempt to ensure the proper performance of the animals. The experiments of type dosage x response are very common in the determination of levels of nutrients in optimal food balance and include the use of regression models to achieve this objective. Nevertheless, the regression analysis routine, generally, uses a priori information about a possible relationship between the response variable. The isotonic regression is a method of estimation by least squares that generates estimates which preserves data ordering. In the theory of isotonic regression this information is essential and it is expected to increase fitting efficiency. The objective of this work was to use an isotonic regression methodology, as an alternative way of analyzing data of Zn deposition in tibia of male birds of Hubbard lineage. We considered the models of plateau response of polynomial quadratic and linear exponential forms. In addition to these models, we also proposed the fitting of a logarithmic model to the data and the efficiency of the methodology was evaluated by Monte Carlo simulations, considering different scenarios for the parametric values. The isotonization of the data yielded an improvement in all the fitting quality parameters evaluated. Among the models used, the logarithmic presented estimates of the parameters more consistent with the values reported in literature.

Influência da idade no comportamento da frequência cardíaca na transição repouso-exercício: uma análise por deltas e regressão linear

INTRODUÇÃO: As modificações da frequência cardíaca (FC) durante a transição repouso-exercício podem ser caracterizadas por meio da aplicação de cálculos matemáticos simples, como: deltas 0-10 e 0-30s para inferir sobre o sistema nervoso parassimpático, e delta e regressão linear aplicados no intervalo 60-240s para inferir sobre o sistema nervoso simpático. Assim, o objetivo deste estudo foi testar a hipótese de que indivíduos jovens e de meia-idade apresentam diferentes respostas da FC em exercício de intensidade moderada e intensa, com diferentes cálculos matemáticos. MÉTODOS: Homens aparentemente saudáveis, sendo sete de meia-idade e 10 jovens, foram submetidos a testes de carga constante de intensidade moderada e intensa. Foram calculados os deltas da FC nos períodos de 0-10s, 0-30s e 60-240s e a regressão linear simples no período de 60 a 240s. Os parâmetros obtidos na análise de regressão linear simples foram: intercepto e inclinação angular. Utilizou-se o teste Shapiro-Wilk para verificar a distribuição dos dados e o teste t não pareado para comparação entre os grupos. O nível de significância estatística considerado foi 5%. RESULTADOS: O valor do intercepto e do delta 0-10s foi menor no grupo meia-idade nas duas cargas e a inclinação do ângular foi menor no grupo meia-idade no exercício moderado. CONCLUSÃO: Os indivíduos jovens apresentam retirada vagal de maior magnitude no estágio inicial da resposta da FC durante exercício dinâmico em carga constante nas intensidades analisadas e maior velocidade de ajuste da resposta simpática em exercícios moderados.

Non-Linear Analysis and Design of Synchronous Bearingless Multiphase Permanent Magnet Machines and Drives

A two-dimensional model to analyze the distribution of magnetic fields in the airgap of a PM electrical machines is studied. A numerical algorithm for non-linear magnetic analysis of multiphase surface-mounted PM machines with semi-closed slots is developed, based on the equivalent magnetic circuit method. By using a modular structure geometry, whose the basic element can be duplicated, it allows to design whatever typology of windings distribution. In comparison to a FEA, permits a reduction in computing time and to directly changing the values of the parameters in a user interface, without re-designing the model. Output torque and radial forces acting on the moving part of the machine can be calculated. In addition, an analytical model for radial forces calculation in multiphase bearingless Surface-Mounted Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors (SPMSM) is presented. It allows to predict amplitude and direction of the force, depending on the values of torque current, of levitation current and of rotor position. It is based on the space vectors method, letting the analysis of the machine also during transients. The calculations are conducted by developing the analytical functions in Fourier series, taking all the possible interactions between stator and rotor mmf harmonic components into account and allowing to analyze the effects of electrical and geometrical quantities of the machine, being parametrized. The model is implemented in the design of a control system for bearingless machines, as an accurate electromagnetic model integrated in a three-dimensional mechanical model, where one end of the motor shaft is constrained to simulate the presence of a mechanical bearing, while the other is free, only supported by the radial forces developed in the interactions between magnetic fields, to realize a bearingless system with three degrees of freedom. The complete model represents the design of the experimental system to be realized in the laboratory.

A New Prediction Model for Slope Stability Analysis

The instability of river bank can result in considerable human and land losses. The Po river is the most important in Italy, characterized by main banks of significant and constantly increasing height. This study presents multilayer perceptron of artificial neural network (ANN) to construct prediction models for the stability analysis of river banks along the Po River, under various river and groundwater boundary conditions. For this aim, a number of networks of threshold logic unit are tested using different combinations of the input parameters. Factor of safety (FS), as an index of slope stability, is formulated in terms of several influencing geometrical and geotechnical parameters. In order to obtain a comprehensive geotechnical database, several cone penetration tests from the study site have been interpreted. The proposed models are developed upon stability analyses using finite element code over different representative sections of river embankments. For the validity verification, the ANN models are employed to predict the FS values of a part of the database beyond the calibration data domain. The results indicate that the proposed ANN models are effective tools for evaluating the slope stability. The ANN models notably outperform the derived multiple linear regression models.

Population-based analysis of 4113 patients with acute cholecystitis: defining the optimal time-point for laparoscopic cholecystectomy

Objective: To compare clinical outcomes after laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) for acute cholecystitis performed at various time-points after hospital admission. Background: Symptomatic gallstones represent an important public health problem with LC the treatment of choice. LC is increasingly offered for acute cholecystitis, however, the optimal time-point for LC in this setting remains a matter of debate. Methods: Analysis was based on the prospective database of the Swiss Association of Laparoscopic and Thoracoscopic Surgery and included patients undergoing emergency LC for acute cholecystitis between 1995 and 2006, grouped according to the time-points of LC since hospital admission (admission day (d0), d1, d2, d3, d4/5, d ≥6). Linear and generalized linear regression models assessed the effect of timing of LC on intra- or postoperative complications, conversion and reoperation rates and length of postoperative hospital stay. Results: Of 4113 patients, 52.8% were female, median age was 59.8 years. Delaying LC resulted in significantly higher conversion rates (from 11.9% at d0 to 27.9% at d ≥6 days after admission, P < 0.001), surgical postoperative complications (5.7% to 13%, P < 0.001) and re-operation rates (0.9% to 3%, P = 0.007), with a significantly longer postoperative hospital stay (P < 0.001). Conclusions: Delaying LC for acute cholecystitis has no advantages, resulting in significantly increased conversion/re-operation rate, postoperative complications and longer postoperative hospital stay. This investigation—one of the largest in the literature—provides compelling evidence that acute cholecystitis merits surgery within 48 hours of hospital admission if impact on the patient and health care system is to be minimized.

A 13-year analysis from Switzerland of non-fatal sledging (sledding or tobogganing) injuries

INTRODUCTION: Winter sports have evolved from an upper class activity to a mass industry. Especially sledging regained popularity at the start of this century, with more and more winter sports resorts offering sledge runs. This study investigated the rates of sledging injuries over the last 13 years and analysed injury patterns specific for certain age groups, enabling us to make suggestions for preventive measures. METHODS: We present a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. From 1996/1997 to 2008/2009, all patients involved in sledging injuries were recorded upon admission to a Level III trauma centre. Injuries were classified into body regions according to the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS). The Injury Severity Score (ISS) was calculated. Patients were stratified into 7 age groups. Associations between age and injured body region were tested using the chi-squared test. The slope of the linear regression with 95% confidence intervals was calculated for the proportion of patients with different injured body regions and winter season. RESULTS: 4956 winter sports patients were recorded. 263 patients (5%) sustained sledging injuries. Sledging injury patients had a median age of 22 years (interquartile range [IQR] 14-38 years) and a median ISS of 4 (IQR 1-4). 136 (51.7%) were male. Injuries (AIS≥2) were most frequent to the lower extremities (n=91, 51.7% of all AIS≥2 injuries), followed by the upper extremities (n=48, 27.3%), the head (n=17, 9.7%), the spine (n=7, 4.0%). AIS≥2 injuries to different body regions varied from season to season, with no significant trends (p>0.19). However, the number of patients admitted with AIS≥2 injuries increased significantly over the seasons analysed (p=0.031), as did the number of patients with any kind of sledging injury (p=0.004). Mild head injuries were most frequent in the youngest age group (1-10 years old). Injuries to the lower extremities were more often seen in the age groups from 21 to 60 years (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Mild head trauma was mainly found in very young sledgers, and injuries to the lower extremities were more frequent in adults. In accordance with the current literature, we suggest that sledging should be performed in designated, obstacle-free areas that are specially prepared, and that children should always be supervised by adults. The effect of routine use of helmets and other protective devices needs further evaluation, but it seems evident that these should be obligatory on official runs.

Fluctuation analysis of lung function as a predictor of long-term response to beta2-agonists

The response to beta(2)-agonists differs between asthmatics and has been linked to subsequent adverse events, even death. Possible determinants include beta(2)-adrenoceptor genotype at position 16, lung function and airway hyperresponsiveness. Fluctuation analysis provides a simple parameter alpha measuring the complex correlation properties of day-to-day peak expiratory flow. The present study investigated whether alpha predicts clinical response to beta(2)-agonist treatment, taking into account other conventional predictors. Analysis was performed on previously published twice-daily peak expiratory flow measurements in 66 asthmatic adults over three 6-month randomised order treatment periods: placebo, salbutamol and salmeterol. Multiple linear regression was used to determine the association between alpha during the placebo period and response to treatment (change in the number of days with symptoms), taking into account other predictors namely beta(2)-adrenoceptor genotype, lung function and its variability, and airway hyperresponsiveness. The current authors found that alpha measured during the placebo period considerably improved the prediction of response to salmeterol treatment, taking into account genotype, lung function or its variability, or airway hyperresponsiveness. The present study provides further evidence that response to beta(2)-agonists is related to the time correlation properties of lung function in asthma. The current authors conclude that fluctuation analysis of lung function offers a novel predictor to identify patients who may respond well or poorly to treatment.

Pulse contour analysis: a valid assessment of central arterial stiffness in children?

In adults the contour analysis of peripheral pressure waves in the upper limb reflects central aortic stiffness. Here, we wanted to demonstrate the appropriateness of pulse contour analysis to assess large artery stiffness in children. Digital volume pulse analysis, with the computation of the stiffness index and pulse wave velocity between carotid and femoral artery, were simultaneously determined in 79 healthy children between 8 years and 15 years (mean age 11.4 years, 32 girls). The stiffness index of 42 healthy adults (mean age 45.6 years, 26 women) served as control. Pulse wave velocity between carotid and femoral artery was directly correlated with systolic pressure and mean blood pressure, as well as with pulse pressure. The results from the stiffness index of children revealed the expected values extrapolated from the linear regression of adulthood stiffness index vs. age. Childhood stiffness index positively correlated with pulse wave velocity (r(2) = 0.07, P = 0.02) but not with blood pressure parameters. The exclusion of individuals with an increased vascular tone, as indicated by a reflexion index > 90%, improved the correlation between stiffness index and pulse wave velocity (r(2) = 0.13, P = 0.001). Our data indicate that digital volume pulse-based analysis has limitations if compared with pulse wave velocity to measure arterial stiffness, mostly in patients with a high vascular tone.

Analysis of spring break-up and its effects on a biomass feedstock supply chain in northern Michigan

Demand for bio-fuels is expected to increase, due to rising prices of fossil fuels and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions and energy security. The overall cost of biomass energy generation is primarily related to biomass harvesting activity, transportation, and storage. With a commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol processing facility in Kinross Township of Chippewa County, Michigan about to be built, models including a simulation model and an optimization model have been developed to provide decision support for the facility. Both models track cost, emissions and energy consumption. While the optimization model provides guidance for a long-term strategic plan, the simulation model aims to present detailed output for specified operational scenarios over an annual period. Most importantly, the simulation model considers the uncertainty of spring break-up timing, i.e., seasonal road restrictions. Spring break-up timing is important because it will impact the feasibility of harvesting activity and the time duration of transportation restrictions, which significantly changes the availability of feedstock for the processing facility. This thesis focuses on the statistical model of spring break-up used in the simulation model. Spring break-up timing depends on various factors, including temperature, road conditions and soil type, as well as individual decision making processes at the county level. The spring break-up model, based on the historical spring break-up data from 27 counties over the period of 2002-2010, starts by specifying the probability distribution of a particular county’s spring break-up start day and end day, and then relates the spring break-up timing of the other counties in the harvesting zone to the first county. In order to estimate the dependence relationship between counties, regression analyses, including standard linear regression and reduced major axis regression, are conducted. Using realizations (scenarios) of spring break-up generated by the statistical spring breakup model, the simulation model is able to probabilistically evaluate different harvesting and transportation plans to help the bio-fuel facility select the most effective strategy. For early spring break-up, which usually indicates a longer than average break-up period, more log storage is required, total cost increases, and the probability of plant closure increases. The risk of plant closure may be partially offset through increased use of rail transportation, which is not subject to spring break-up restrictions. However, rail availability and rail yard storage may then become limiting factors in the supply chain. Rail use will impact total cost, energy consumption, system-wide CO2 emissions, and the reliability of providing feedstock to the bio-fuel processing facility.

Waiting times for cataract surgery in ten European countries: an analysis using data from the SHARE survey

AIMS: To assess waiting times for cataract surgery and their acceptance in European countries, and to find explanatory, country-specific health indicators. METHODS: Using data from the survey of health, ageing and retirement in Europe (SHARE), waiting times for cataract surgery of 245 respondents in ten countries were analysed with the help of linear regression. The influence of four country specific health indicators on waiting times was studied by multiple linear regression. The influence of waiting time and country on the wish to have surgery performed earlier was determined through logistic regression. Additional information was obtained for each country from opinion leaders in the field of cataract surgery. RESULTS: Waiting times differed significantly (p<0.001) between the ten analysed European countries. The length of wait was significantly influenced by the total expenditure on health (p<0.01) but not by the other country specific health indicators. The wish to have surgery performed earlier was determined by the length of wait (p<0.001) but not by the country where surgery was performed. CONCLUSION: The length of wait is influenced by the total expenditure on health, but not by the rate of public expenditure on health, by the physician density or by the acute bed density. The wish to have surgery performed earlier depends on the length of wait for surgery and is not influenced by the country.

Feasibility of automated slope III and Scond analysis in children.

BACKGROUND Multiple breath washout (MBW) derived Scond is an established index of ventilation inhomogeneity. Time-consuming post hoc calculations of the expirogram's slope of alveolar phase III (SIII) and the lack of available software hampered widespread application of Scond. METHODS Seventy-two school-aged children (45 with cystic fibrosis; CF) performed 3 nitrogen MBW. We tested a new automated algorithm for Scond analysis (Scondauto ) which comprised breath selection for SIII detection, calculation and reporting of test quality. We compared Scondauto to (i) standard Scond analysis (Scondmanual ) with manual breath selection and to (ii) pragmatic Scond analysis including all breaths (Scondall ). Primary outcomes were success rate and agreement between different Scond protocols, and Scond fitting quality (linear regression R(2) ). RESULTS Average Scondauto (0.06 for CF and 0.01 for controls) was not different from Scondmanual (0.06 for CF and 0.01 for controls) and showed comparable fitting quality (R(2) 0.53 for CF and 0.13 for controls vs. R(2) 0.54 for CF and 0.13 for controls). Scondall was similar in CF and controls but with inferior fitting quality compared to Scondauto and Scondmanual . CONCLUSIONS Automated Scond calculation is feasible and produces robust results comparable to the standard manual way of Scond calculation. This algorithm provides a valid, fast and objective tool for regular use, even in children. Pediatr Pulmonol. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.