Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework1. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4–0.5 °C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8–1.0 °C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22–27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

Adapting agricultural land management to climate change: a regional multi-objective optimization approach

In several regions of the world, climate change is expected to have severe impacts on agricultural systems. Changes in land management are one way to adapt to future climatic conditions, including land-use changes and local adjustments of agricultural practices. In previous studies, options for adaptation have mostly been explored by testing alternative scenarios. Systematic explorations of land management possibilities using optimization approaches were so far mainly restricted to studies of land and resource management under constant climatic conditions. In this study, we bridge this gap and exploit the benefits of multi-objective regional optimization for identifying optimum land management adaptations to climate change. We design a multi-objective optimization routine that integrates a generic crop model and considers two climate scenarios for 2050 in a meso-scale catchment on the Swiss Central Plateau with already limited water resources. The results indicate that adaptation will be necessary in the study area to cope with a decrease in productivity by 0–10 %, an increase in soil loss by 25–35 %, and an increase in N-leaching by 30–45 %. Adaptation options identified here exhibit conflicts between productivity and environmental goals, but compromises are possible. Necessary management changes include (i) adjustments of crop shares, i.e. increasing the proportion of early harvested winter cereals at the expense of irrigated spring crops, (ii) widespread use of reduced tillage, (iii) allocation of irrigated areas to soils with low water-retention capacity at lower elevations, and (iv) conversion of some pre-alpine grasslands to croplands.

Studies on the {\it in vivo} function of a phosphatidylinositol transfer protein from {\it Saccharomyces cerevisiae}

Phosphatidylinositol transfer proteins (PI-TP's) catalyze the transfer of phosphatidylinositol and phosphatidylcholine between membranes in vitro. However the in vivo function of these proteins is unknown. In this thesis we have used a combined biochemical and genetic approach to determine the importance of PI-TP in vivo. An oligonucleotide based on the amino terminal sequence of the PI-TP from Saccharomyces cerevisiae, was used to screen a yeast genomic library for the gene encoding PI-TP (PIT1 gene). Yeast strains transformed with the positive clones showed overproduction of transfer activities and transfer protein in the 100,000 x g supernatants. The 5$\sp\prime$ terminus of the PIT1 gene correlates with the predicted codons for residues 3-30 of the determined protein sequence. Tetrad analysis of a heterozygous diploid (PIT1/pit1::LEU2) revealed that the PIT1 gene is essential for cell growth. Non-viable spores could be rescued by transformation of the above diploid prior to sporulation, with a plasmid borne copy of the wild type gene. Sequencing of the entire PIT1 gene has revealed that the PIT1 gene is identical to the SEC14 gene. The sec14 ts mutant which exhibits conditional defects at the Golgi stage of protein secretion, is also temperature sensitive for PI-TP activity in vitro. These findings represent the first instance in which a physiological function has been assigned to any phospholipid transfer protein. ^

Does Land-Use Intensification Decrease Plant Phylogenetic Diversity in Local Grasslands?

Phylogenetic diversity (PD) has been successfully used as a complement to classical measures of biological diversity such as species richness or functional diversity. By considering the phylogenetic history of species, PD broadly summarizes the trait space within a community. This covers amongst others complex physiological or biochemical traits that are often not considered in estimates of functional diversity, but may be important for the understanding of community assembly and the relationship between diversity and ecosystem functions. In this study we analyzed the relationship between PD of plant communities and land-use intensification in 150 local grassland plots in three regions in Germany. Specifically we asked whether PD decreases with land-use intensification and if so, whether the relationship is robust across different regions. Overall, we found that species richness decreased along land-use gradients the results however differed for common and rare species assemblages. PD only weakly decreased with increasing land-use intensity. The strength of the relationship thereby varied among regions and PD metrics used. From our results we suggest that there is no general relationship between PD and land-use intensification probably due to lack of phylogenetic conservatism in land- use sensitive traits. Nevertheless, we suggest that depending on specific regional idiosyncrasies the consideration of PD as a complement to other measures of diversity can be useful.

Anthropogenic perturbation of the carbon fluxes from land to ocean

A substantial amount of the atmospheric carbon taken up on land through photosynthesis and chemical weathering is transported laterally along the aquatic continuum from upland terrestrial ecosystems to the ocean. So far, global carbon budget estimates have implicitly assumed that the transformation and lateral transport of carbon along this aquatic continuum has remained unchanged since pre-industrial times. A synthesis of published work reveals the magnitude of present-day lateral carbon fluxes from land to ocean, and the extent to which human activities have altered these fluxes. We show that anthropogenic perturbation may have increased the flux of carbon to inland waters by as much as 1.0 Pg C yr(-1) since pre-industrial times, mainly owing to enhanced carbon export from soils. Most of this additional carbon input to upstream rivers is either emitted back to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide (similar to 0.4 Pg C yr(-1)) or sequestered in sediments (similar to 0.5 Pg C yr(-1)) along the continuum of freshwater bodies, estuaries and coastal waters, leaving only a perturbation carbon input of similar to 0.1 Pg C yr(-1) to the open ocean. According to our analysis, terrestrial ecosystems store similar to 0.9 Pg C yr(-1) at present, which is in agreement with results from forest inventories but significantly differs from the figure of 1.5 Pg C yr(-1) previously estimated when ignoring changes in lateral carbon fluxes. We suggest that carbon fluxes along the land-ocean aquatic continuum need to be included in global carbon dioxide budgets.

Long-term relationships among pesticide applications, mobility, and soil erosion in a vineyard watershed

Agricultural pesticide use has increased worldwide during the last several decades, but the long-term fate, storage, and transfer dynamics of pesticides in a changing environment are poorly understood. Many pesticides have been progressively banned, but in numerous cases, these molecules are stable and may persist in soils, sediments, and ice. Many studies have addressed the question of their possible remobilization as a result of global change. In this article, we present a retro-observation approach based on lake sediment records to monitor micropollutants and to evaluate the long-term succession and diffuse transfer of herbicides, fungicides, and insecticide treatments in a vineyard catchment in France. The sediment allows for a reliable reconstruction of past pesticide use through time, validated by the historical introduction, use, and banning of these organic and inorganic pesticides in local vineyards. Our results also revealed how changes in these practices affect storage conditions and, consequently, the pesticides’ transfer dynamics. For example, the use of postemergence herbicides (glyphosate), which induce an increase in soil erosion, led to a release of a banned remnant pesticide (dichlorodiphenyltrichloro- ethane, DDT), which had been previously stored in vineyard soil, back into the environment. Management strategies of ecotoxico- logical risk would be well served by recognition of the diversity of compounds stored in various environmental sinks, such as agriculture soil, and their capability to become sources when environmental conditions change.

Three essays on prices and selection

Competitive Market Segmentation Abstract In a two-firm model where each firm sells a high-quality and a low-quality version of a product, customers differ with respect to their brand preferences and their attitudes towards quality. We show that the standard result of quality-independent markups crucially depends on the assumption that the customers' valuation of quality is identical across firms. Once we relax this assumption, competition across qualities leads to second-degree price discrimination. We find that markups on low-quality products are higher if consuming a low-quality product involves a firm-specific disutility. Likewise, markups on high-quality products are higher if consuming a high-quality product creates a firm-specific surplus. Selection upon Wage Posting Abstract We discuss a model of a job market where firms announce salaries. Thereupon, they decide through the evaluation of a productivity test whether to hire applicants. Candidates for a job are locked in once they have applied at a given employer. Hence, such a market exhibits a specific form of the bargain-then-ripoff principle. With a single firm, the outcome is efficient. Under competition, what might be called "positive selection" leads to market failure. Thus our model provides a rationale for very small employment probabilities in some sectors. Exclusivity Clauses: Enhancing Competition, Raising Prices Abstract In a setting where retailers and suppliers compete for each other by offering binding contracts, exclusivity clauses serve as a competitive device. As a result of these clauses, firms addressed by contracts only accept the most favorable deal. Thus the contract-issuing parties have to squeeze their final customers and transfer the surplus within the vertical supply chain. We elaborate to what extent the resulting allocation depends on the sequence of play and discuss the implications of a ban on exclusivity clauses.

Land-atmosphere coupling over North America in CRCM5

Land-atmosphere coupling and its impact on extreme precipitation and temperature events over North America are studied using the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). To this effect, two 30 year long simulations, spanning the 1981–2010 period, with and without land-atmosphere coupling, have been performed with CRCM5, driven by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis at the boundaries. In the coupled simulation, the soil moisture interacts freely with the atmosphere at each time step, while in the uncoupled simulation, soil moisture is replaced with its climatological value computed from the coupled simulation, thus suppressing the soil moisture-atmosphere interactions. Analyses of the coupled and uncoupled simulations, for the summer period, show strong soil moisture-temperature coupling over the Great Plains, consistent with previous studies. The maxima of soil moisture-precipitation coupling is more spread out and covers the semiarid regions of the western U.S. and parts of the Great Plains. However, the strength of soil moisture-precipitation coupling is found to be generally weaker than that of soil moisture-temperature coupling. The study clearly indicates that land-atmosphere coupling increases the interannual variability of the seasonal mean daily maximum temperature in the Great Plains. Land-atmosphere coupling is found to significantly modulate selected temperature extremes such as the number of hot days, frequency, and maximum duration of hot spells over the Great Plains. Results also suggest additional hot spots, where soil moisture modulates extreme events. These hot spots are located in the southeast U.S. for the hot days/hot spells and in the semiarid regions of the western U.S. for extreme wet spells. This study thus demonstrates that climatologically wet/dry regions can become hot spots of land-atmosphere coupling when the soil moisture decreases/increases to an intermediate transitional level where evapotranspiration becomes moisture sensitive and large enough to affect the climate.

The geography of large-scale land acquisitions: Analysing socio-ecological patterns of target contexts in the global South

This paper analyses local geographical contexts targeted by transnational large-scale land acquisitions (>200 ha per deal) in order to understand how emerging patterns of socio-ecological characteristics can be related to processes of large-scale foreign investment in land. Using a sample of 139 land deals georeferenced with high spatial accuracy, we first analyse their target contexts in terms of land cover, population density, accessibility, and indicators for agricultural potential. Three distinct patterns emerge from the analysis: densely populated and easily accessible croplands (35% of land deals); remote forestlands with lower population densities (34% of land deals); and moderately populated and moderately accessible shrub- or grasslands (26% of land deals). These patterns are consistent with processes described in the relevant case study literature, and they each involve distinct types of stakeholders and associated competition over land. We then repeat the often-cited analysis that postulates a link between land investments and target countries with abundant so-called “idle” or “marginal” lands as measured by yield gap and available suitable but uncultivated land; our methods differ from the earlier approach, however, in that we examine local context (10-km radius) rather than countries as a whole. The results show that earlier findings are disputable in terms of concepts, methods, and contents. Further, we reflect on methodologies for exploring linkages between socioecological patterns and land investment processes. Improving and enhancing large datasets of georeferenced land deals is an important next step; at the same time, careful choice of the spatial scale of analysis is crucial for ensuring compatibility between the spatial accuracy of land deal locations and the resolution of available geospatial data layers. Finally, we argue that new approaches and methods must be developed to empirically link socio-ecological patterns in target contexts to key determinants of land investment processes. This would help to improve the validity and the reach of our findings as an input for evidence-informed policy debates.

Classifying and mapping the urban transition in Vietnam

The urban transition almost always involves wrenching social adjustment as small agricultural communities are forced to adjust rapidly to industrial ways of life. Large-scale in-migration of young people, usually from poor regions, creates enormous demand and expectations for community and social services. One immediate problem planners face in approaching this challenge is how to define, differentiate, and map what is rural, urban, and transitional (i.e., peri-urban). This project established an urban classification for Vietnam by using national census and remote sensing data to identify and map the smallest administrative units for which data are collected as rural, peri-urban, urban, or urban core. We used both natural and human factors in the quantitative model: income from agriculture, land under agriculture and forests, houses with modern sanitation, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. Model results suggest that in 2006, 71% of Vietnam's 10,891 communes were rural, 18% peri-urban, 3% urban, and 4% urban core. Of the communes our model classified as peri-urban, 61% were classified by the Vietnamese government as rural. More than 7% of Vietnam's land area can be classified as peri-urban and approximately 13% of its population (more than 11 million people) lives in peri-urban areas. We identified and mapped three types of peri-urban places: communes in the periphery of large towns and cities; communes along highways; and communes associated with provincial administration or home to industrial, energy, or natural resources projects (e.g., mining). We validated this classification based on ground observations, analyses of multi-temporal night-time lights data, and an examination of road networks. The model provides a method for rapidly assessing the rural–urban nature of places to assist planners in identifying rural areas undergoing rapid change with accompanying needs for investments in building, sanitation, road infrastructure, and government institutions.

Elevated temperature differentially affects virulence, VirB protein accumulation, and T-pilus formation in different Agrobacterium tumefaciens and Agrobacterium vitis strains.

That gene transfer to plant cells is a temperature-sensitive process has been known for more than 50 years. Previous work indicated that this sensitivity results from the inability to assemble a functional T pilus required for T-DNA and protein transfer to recipient cells. The studies reported here extend these observations and more clearly define the molecular basis of this assembly and transfer defect. T-pilus assembly and virulence protein accumulation were monitored in Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain C58 at different temperatures ranging from 20 degrees C to growth-inhibitory 37 degrees C. Incubation at 28 degrees C but not at 26 degrees C strongly inhibited extracellular assembly of the major T-pilus component VirB2 as well as of pilus-associated protein VirB5, and the highest amounts of T pili were detected at 20 degrees C. Analysis of temperature effects on the cell-bound virulence machinery revealed three classes of virulence proteins. Whereas class I proteins (VirB2, VirB7, VirB9, and VirB10) were readily detected at 28 degrees C, class II proteins (VirB1, VirB4, VirB5, VirB6, VirB8, VirB11, VirD2, and VirE2) were only detected after cell growth below 26 degrees C. Significant levels of class III proteins (VirB3 and VirD4) were only detected at 20 degrees C and not at higher temperatures. Shift of virulence-induced agrobacteria from 20 to 28 or 37 degrees C had no immediate effect on cell-bound T pili or on stability of most virulence proteins. However, the temperature shift caused a rapid decrease in the amount of cell-bound VirB3 and VirD4, and VirB4 and VirB11 levels decreased next. To assess whether destabilization of virulence proteins constitutes a general phenomenon, levels of virulence proteins and of extracellular T pili were monitored in different A. tumefaciens and Agrobacterium vitis strains grown at 20 and 28 degrees C. Levels of many virulence proteins were strongly reduced at 28 degrees C compared to 20 degrees C, and T-pilus assembly did not occur in all strains except "temperature-resistant" Ach5 and Chry5. Virulence protein levels correlated well with bacterial virulence at elevated temperature, suggesting that degradation of a limited set of virulence proteins accounts for the temperature sensitivity of gene transfer to plants.

Revealing regional deforestation dynamics in north-eastern Madagascar - Insights from multi-temporal land cover change analysis

The north-eastern escarpment of Madagascar harbours the island’s last remaining large-scale humid forest massifs surrounded by a small-scale agricultural mosaic. There is high deforestation, commonly thought to be caused by shifting cultivation practiced by local land users to produce upland rice. However, little is known about the dynamics between forest and shifting cultivation systems at a regional level. Our study presents a first attempt to quantify changes in the extent of forest and different agricultural land cover classes, and to identify the main dynamics of land cover change for two intervals, 1995–2005 and 2005–2011. Over the 16-year study period, the speed of forest loss increased, the total area of upland rice production remained almost stable, and the area of irrigated rice fields slightly increased. While our findings seem to confirm a general trend of land use intensification, deforestation through shifting cultivation is still on the rise. Deforestation mostly affects the small forest fragments interspersed in the agricultural mosaic and is slowly leading to a homogenization of the landscape. These findings have important implications for future interventions to slow forest loss in the region, as the processes of agricultural expansion through shifting cultivation versus intensified land use cannot per se be considered mutually exclusive.

Dynamics of Traditional Ecological Knowledge, Local Use and Conservation of Native Trees and Shrubs in the Bolivian Andes

Native trees and shrubs are essential components of rural landscapes in the semi-arid inner-Andean valleys of Bolivia. They can be found as hedges and bushes in various agroecosystems such as terrace walls, slopes, field boundaries and fallow land. Their distribution and floristic composition are the result of dynamic spatial and temporal interactions between local farmers and the environment. Local uses of natural resources and biodiversity reflect the constantly evolving Andean culture, which can be generally characterised as an intertwining of the human, natural, and spiritual worlds. The aim of the present ethnobotanical study was to analyse the dynamics of traditional ecological knowledge, to ascertain local farmers’ perceptions and uses of native woody species in Andean communities and to associate the results with local conservation activities for the trees and shrubs concerned. Our case study was carried out within two communities of the Tunari National Park (Dept. Cochabamba) in Bolivia. For data collection, research methods from social science (semi-structured interviews, participative observation, participatory mapping) as well as vegetation surveys were combined. Local actors included women and men of all ages as well as families from different social categories and altitudinal levels of permanent residence. Our study indicates that, due to a multitude of socio-economic pressures (e.g. migration of young people) as well as changes in use of biodiversity (e.g. replacement of native by exotic introduced species), the traditional ecological knowledge base of native trees and shrubs and their respective uses has become diminished over time. In many cases it has led to a decline in people’s awareness of native species and as a consequence their practical, emotional and spiritual relationships with them have been lost. However, results also show that applied traditional ecological knowledge has led to local conservation strategies, which have succeeded in protecting those tree and shrub species which are most widely regarded for their multifunctional, constant and exclusive uses (e.g. Schinus molle, Prosopis laevigata, Baccharis dracunculifolia). The presentation will discuss the question if and how applied traditional ecological knowledge positively contributes to local initiatives of sustainable use and conservation of biodiversity in rural areas.

Quantifying differences in land use emission estimates implied by definition discrepancies

The quantification of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land use and land use change (eLUC) is essential to understand the drivers of the atmospheric CO2 increase and to inform climate change mitigation policy. Reported values in synthesis reports are commonly derived from different approaches (observation-driven bookkeeping and process-modelling) but recent work has emphasized that inconsistencies between methods may imply substantial differences in eLUC estimates. However, a consistent quantification is lacking and no concise modelling protocol for the separation of primary and secondary components of eLUC has been established. Here, we review differences of eLUC quantification methods and apply an Earth System Model (ESM) of Intermediate Complexity to quantify them. We find that the magnitude of effects due to merely conceptual differences between ESM and offline vegetation model-based quantifications is ~ 20 % for today. Under a future business-as-usual scenario, differences tend to increase further due to slowing land conversion rates and an increasing impact of altered environmental conditions on land-atmosphere fluxes. We establish how coupled Earth System Models may be applied to separate secondary component fluxes of eLUC arising from the replacement of potential C sinks/sources and the land use feedback and show that secondary fluxes derived from offline vegetation models are conceptually and quantitatively not identical to either, nor their sum. Therefore, we argue that synthesis studies should resort to the "least common denominator" of different methods, following the bookkeeping approach where only primary land use emissions are quantified under the assumption of constant environmental boundary conditions.

Prognostic and diagnostic value of EEG signal coupling measures in coma.

OBJECTIVE Our aim was to assess the diagnostic and predictive value of several quantitative EEG (qEEG) analysis methods in comatose patients. METHODS In 79 patients, coupling between EEG signals on the left-right (inter-hemispheric) axis and on the anterior-posterior (intra-hemispheric) axis was measured with four synchronization measures: relative delta power asymmetry, cross-correlation, symbolic mutual information and transfer entropy directionality. Results were compared with etiology of coma and clinical outcome. Using cross-validation, the predictive value of measure combinations was assessed with a Bayes classifier with mixture of Gaussians. RESULTS Five of eight measures showed a statistically significant difference between patients grouped according to outcome; one measure revealed differences in patients grouped according to the etiology. Interestingly, a high level of synchrony between the left and right hemisphere was associated with mortality on intensive care unit, whereas higher synchrony between anterior and posterior brain regions was associated with survival. The combination with the best predictive value reached an area-under the curve of 0.875 (for patients with post anoxic encephalopathy: 0.946). CONCLUSIONS EEG synchronization measures can contribute to clinical assessment, and provide new approaches for understanding the pathophysiology of coma. SIGNIFICANCE Prognostication in coma remains a challenging task. qEEG could improve current multi-modal approaches.