Accuracy of four cardiovascular risk scores in a Swiss population-based cohort

Purpose: To assess the global cardiovascular (CV) risk of an individual, several scores have been developed. However, their accuracy and comparability need to be evaluated in populations others from which they were derived. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive accuracy of 4 CV risk scores using data of a large population-based cohort. Methods: Prospective cohort study including 4980 participants (2698 women, mean age± SD: 52.7±10.8 years) in Lausanne, Switzerland followed for an average of 5.5 years (range 0.2 - 8.5). Two end points were assessed: 1) coronary heart disease (CHD), and 2) CV diseases (CVD). Four risk scores were compared: original and recalibrated Framingham coronary heart disease scores (1998 and 2001); original PROCAM score (2002) and its recalibrated version for Switzerland (IAS-AGLA); Reynolds risk score. Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C statistics, model fitness using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and calibration using pseudo Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The sensitivity, specificity and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were assessed for each risk score using the highest risk category ([20+ % at 10 years) as the "positive" test. Results: Recalibrated and original 1998 and original 2001 Framingham scores show better discrimination (>0.720) and model fitness (low AIC) for CHD and CVD. All 4 scores are correctly calibrated (Chi2<20). The recalibrated Framingham 1998 score has the best sensitivities, 37.8% and 40.4%, for CHD and CVD, respectively. All scores present specificities >90%. Framingham 1998, PROCAM and IAS-AGLA scores include the greatest proportion of subjects (>200) in the high risk category whereas recalibrated Framingham 2001 and Reynolds include <=44 subjects. Conclusion: In this cohort, we see variations of accuracy between risk scores, the original Framingham 2001 score demonstrating the best compromise between its accuracy and its limited selection of subjects in the highest risk category. We advocate that national guidelines, based on independently validated data, take into account calibrated CV risk scores for their respective countries.

Assessment of early-stage optic nerve invasion in retinoblastoma using high-resolution 1.5 Tesla MRI with surface coils: a multicentre, prospective accuracy study with histopathological correlation.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the accuracy of high-resolution (HR) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in diagnosing early-stage optic nerve (ON) invasion in a retinoblastoma cohort. METHODS: This IRB-approved, prospective multicenter study included 95 patients (55 boys, 40 girls; mean age, 29 months). 1.5-T MRI was performed using surface coils before enucleation, including spin-echo unenhanced and contrast-enhanced (CE) T1-weighted sequences (slice thickness, 2 mm; pixel size <0.3 × 0.3 mm(2)). Images were read by five neuroradiologists blinded to histopathologic findings. ROC curves were constructed with AUC assessment using a bootstrap method. RESULTS: Histopathology identified 41 eyes without ON invasion and 25 with prelaminar, 18 with intralaminar and 12 with postlaminar invasion. All but one were postoperatively classified as stage I by the International Retinoblastoma Staging System. The accuracy of CE-T1 sequences in identifying ON invasion was limited (AUC = 0.64; 95 % CI, 0.55 - 0.72) and not confirmed for postlaminar invasion diagnosis (AUC = 0.64; 95 % CI, 0.47 - 0.82); high specificities (range, 0.64 - 1) and negative predictive values (range, 0.81 - 0.97) were confirmed. CONCLUSION: HR-MRI with surface coils is recommended to appropriately select retinoblastoma patients eligible for primary enucleation without the risk of IRSS stage II but cannot substitute for pathology in differentiating the first degrees of ON invasion. KEY POINTS: • HR-MRI excludes advanced optic nerve invasion with high negative predictive value. • HR-MRI accurately selects patients eligible for primary enucleation. • Diagnosis of early stages of optic nerve invasion still relies on pathology. • Several physiological MR patterns may mimic optic nerve invasion.

A regional Industrial Symbiosis methodology and its implementation in Geneva, Switzerland

The Agenda 21 for the Geneva region is the results from a broad consultation process including all local actors. The article 12 stipulates that « the State facilitates possible synergies between economic activities in order to minimize their environmental impacts » thus opening the way for Industrial Ecology (IE) and Industrial Symbiosis (IS). An Advisory Board for Industrial Ecology and Industrial Symbiosis implementation was established in 2002 involving relevant government agencies. Regulatory and technical conditions for IS are studied in the Swiss context. Results reveal that the Swiss law on waste does not hinder by-product exchanges. Methodology and technical factors including geographic, qualitative, quantitative and economical aspects are detailed. The competition with waste operators in a highly developed recycling system is also tackled.The IS project develops an empirical and systematic method for detecting and implementing by-products synergies between industrial actors disseminated throughout the Geneva region. Database management tool for the treatment of input-output analysis data and GIS tools for detecting potentials industrial partners are constantly improved. Potential symbioses for 17 flows (including energy, water and material flows) are currently studied for implementation.

Dépistage néonatal systématique de la mucoviscidose en Suisse: dès janvier 2011 [Implementation of the neonatal cystic fibrosis screening program in Switzerland: beginning January 2011].

The diagnosis of cystic fibrosis (CF) is often delayed because of the nonspecificity of a wide variety of clinical symptoms at disease onset. Newborn screening for CF has been advocated to reduce delays in diagnosis, facilitating preventive care for early respiratory and nutritional involvement. According to American and European consensus and experience of existing programs, a Swiss Nationwide Cystic Fibrosis Newborn Screening Program started in January 2011. Screening strategy combines two steps: an immunoreactive trypsinogen assay and DNA mutation analysis in dried blood samples at day 4 (Guthrie cards).

The statistical accuracy of surveys on business and economic perspectives: a case study

In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed.

Challenges to the implementation of behavioural survellance for HIV/STI in Europe

Background: Well-conducted behavioural surveillance (BS) is essential for policy planning and evaluation. Data should be comparable across countries. In 2008, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) began a programme to support Member States in the implementation of BS for Second Generation Surveillance. Methods: Data from a mapping exercise on current BS activities in EU/EFTA countries led to recommendations for establishing national BS systems and international coordination, and the definition of a set of core and transversal (UNGASS-Dublin compatible) indicators for BS in the general and eight specific populations. A toolkit for establishing BS has been developed and a BS needs-assessment survey has been launched in 30 countries. Tools for BS self-assessment and planning are currently being tested during interactive workshops with country representatives. Results: The mapping exercise revealed extreme diversity between countries. Around half had established a BS system, but this did not always correspond to the epidemiological situation. Challenges to implementation and harmonisation at all levels emerged from survey findings and workshop feedback. These include: absence of synergy between biological and behavioural surveillance and of actors having an overall view of all system elements; lack of awareness of the relevance of BS and of coordination between agencies; insufficient use of available data; financial constraints; poor sustainability, data quality and access to certain key populations; unfavourable legislative environments. Conclusions: There is widespread need in the region not only for technical support but also for BS advocacy: BS remains the neglected partner of second generation surveillance and requires increased political support and capacity-building in order to become effective. Dissemination of validated tools for BS, developed in interaction with country experts, proves feasible and acceptable.

Maturity of Concrete: Field Implementation, MLR-96-1, 1996

The result and experience of field implementation of the maturity method on 14 portland cement concrete (PCC) paving and patching projects during 1995 are summarized in this report. The procedure for developing reference PCC maturity-strength curve of concrete is discussed. Temperature measurement as well as effects of datum temperature, entrained air content and type of aggregate on maturity-strength relationship are examined. Some limitations of the maturity method are discussed. The available field experience and results indicate that the maturity method provides a simple approach to determine strength of concrete, and can be easily implemented in field paving and patching projects. The use of the maturity method may result in reduced project construction time.

Time for change: a roadmap to guide the implementation of the World Anti-Doping Code 2015

A medical and scientific multidisciplinary consensus meeting was held from 29 to 30 November 2013 on Anti-Doping in Sport at the Home of FIFA in Zurich, Switzerland, to create a roadmap for the implementation of the 2015 World Anti-Doping Code. The consensus statement and accompanying papers set out the priorities for the antidoping community in research, science and medicine. The participants achieved consensus on a strategy for the implementation of the 2015 World Anti-Doping Code. Key components of this strategy include: (1) sport-specific risk assessment, (2) prevalence measurement, (3) sport-specific test distribution plans, (4) storage and reanalysis, (5) analytical challenges, (6) forensic intelligence, (7) psychological approach to optimise the most deterrent effect, (8) the Athlete Biological Passport (ABP) and confounding factors, (9) data management system (Anti-Doping Administration & Management System (ADAMS), (10) education, (11) research needs and necessary advances, (12) inadvertent doping and (13) management and ethics: biological data. True implementation of the 2015 World Anti-Doping Code will depend largely on the ability to align thinking around these core concepts and strategies. FIFA, jointly with all other engaged International Federations of sports (Ifs), the International Olympic Committee (IOC) and World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA), are ideally placed to lead transformational change with the unwavering support of the wider antidoping community. The outcome of the consensus meeting was the creation of the ad hoc Working Group charged with the responsibility of moving this agenda forward.

Development and Implementation of an Expert System for Forecasting Fog on US Highway 30 in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, HR-357, 1996

Several accidents, some involving fatalities, have occurred on U.S. Highway 30 near the Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) Corn Sweeteners plant in Cedar Rapids, Iowa. A contributing factor to many of these accidents has been the large amounts of water (vapor and liquid) emitted from multiple sources at ADM's facility located along the south side of the highway. Weather and road closure data acquired from IDOT have been used to develop a database of meteorological conditions preceding and accompanying closure of Highway 30 in Cedar Rapids. An expert system and a FORTRAN program were developed as aids in decision making with regard to closure of Highway 30 near the plant. The computer programs were used for testing, evaluation, and final deployment. Reports indicate the decision tools have been successfully implemented and were judged to be helpful in forecasting road closures and in reducing costs and personnel time in monitoring the roadway.

Test result-based sampling: an efficient design for estimating the accuracy of patient safety indicators.

OBJECTIVE: Accuracy studies of Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs) are critical but limited by the large samples required due to low occurrence of most events. We tested a sampling design based on test results (verification-biased sampling [VBS]) that minimizes the number of subjects to be verified. METHODS: We considered 3 real PSIs, whose rates were calculated using 3 years of discharge data from a university hospital and a hypothetical screen of very rare events. Sample size estimates, based on the expected sensitivity and precision, were compared across 4 study designs: random and VBS, with and without constraints on the size of the population to be screened. RESULTS: Over sensitivities ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 and PSI prevalence levels ranging from 0.02 to 0.2, the optimal VBS strategy makes it possible to reduce sample size by up to 60% in comparison with simple random sampling. For PSI prevalence levels below 1%, the minimal sample size required was still over 5000. CONCLUSIONS: Verification-biased sampling permits substantial savings in the required sample size for PSI validation studies. However, sample sizes still need to be very large for many of the rarer PSIs.

Implementation of enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) in colorectal surgery is highly cost-effective

Objective: Enhanced Recovery After Surgery (ERAS) clinical pathways in¦colorectal surgery are known to reduce postoperative complications leading¦to shortened hospital stay. However, the implementation of such an ERAS¦pathway requires time and financial investment. This study evaluates whether¦the savings related to the reduction in the length of stay (LOS) outweigh the¦costs of implementing an ERAS pathway.¦Methods: An ERAS pathway was implemented in our institution for colorectal¦surgery. The first 50 consecutive patients subjected to this ERAS pathway¦(ERAS group) were compared to 50 consecutive patients that were operated one¦year before its introduction (control group). Primary LOS, readmission within¦30 days, and total costs based on costs per day were compared. The mean costs¦per day were: 3,263 CHF for intensive care, 1,152 CHF for intermediate care,¦and 728 CHF for basic care.¦Results: Primary LOS was shorter in the ERAS group than in the control¦group: median 7 (interquartile range 5-12·25) versus 10 (7-18) days (P =¦0·0025). The readmission within 30 postoperative days was similar in both¦groups (2 patients each). In the ERAS group, the added primary LOS was¦485 days (379 in basic care, 99 in intermediate care, 7 in intensive care) compared¦to 706 days in the control group (533 in basic care, 146 in intermediate care,¦27 in intensive care). The total costs were significantly lower for the 50 ERAS¦patients compared to the control group: 412,801 CHF versus 644,317 CHF (P <¦0·01). Investments required for the 50 first ERAS patients were approximately¦83,544 CHF, including 348 working hours as well a full-time ERAS dedicated¦nurse. The overall cost saving was approximately 2,959 CHF per patient.¦Conclusion: Implementation of an ERAS pathway significantly reduced LOS¦after colorectal surgery. The financial investment to introduce and maintain¦such a pathway is clearly inferior to the cost-saving of reduced hospital stay.

Radiographic total disc replacement angle measurement accuracy using the Oxford Cobbometer: precision and bias.

Total disc replacement (TDR) clinical success has been reported to be related to the residual motion of the operated level. Thus, accurate measurement of TDR range of motion (ROM) is of utmost importance. One commonly used tool in measuring ROM is the Oxford Cobbometer. Little is known however on its accuracy (precision and bias) in measuring TDR angles. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of the Cobbometer to accurately measure radiographic TDR angles. An anatomically accurate synthetic L4-L5 motion segment was instrumented with a CHARITE artificial disc. The TDR angle and anatomical position between L4 and L5 was fixed to prohibit motion while the motion segment was radiographically imaged in various degrees of rotation and elevation, representing a sample of possible patient placement positions. An experienced observer made ten readings of the TDR angle using the Cobbometer at each different position. The Cobbometer readings were analyzed to determine measurement accuracy at each position. Furthermore, analysis of variance was used to study rotation and elevation of the motion segment as treatment factors. Cobbometer TDR angle measurements were most accurate (highest precision and lowest bias) at the centered position (95.5%), which placed the TDR directly inline with the x-ray beam source without any rotation. In contrast, the lowest accuracy (75.2%) was observed in the most rotated and off-centered view. A difference as high as 4 degrees between readings at any individual position, and as high as 6 degrees between all the positions was observed. Furthermore, the Cobbometer was unable to detect the expected trend in TDR angle projection with changing position. Although the Cobbometer has been reported to be reliable in different clinical applications, it lacks the needed accuracy to measure TDR angles and ROM. More accurate ROM measurement methods need to be developed to help surgeons and researchers assess radiological success of TDRs.