Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Exchange rate sensitivity of Australian international equity funds

This paper analyses the exchange rate exposure displayed by a sample of Australian international equity trusts (IET). Exchange rate exposure is also examined in the context of differing economic climates with particular emphasis on the Asian crisis in mid-1997. It is found that there is evidence of exchange rate exposure particularly in the context of a multiple exchange rate model. Exposure varies substantially between three alternative time periods with different exposure apparent subsequent to the Asian crisis than prior to this event.

Predicting the HER2 status of breast cancer from basic histopathology data: an analysis of 1500 breast cancers as part of the HER2000 International Study

The tests that are currently available for the measurement of overexpression of the human epidermal growth factor-2 (HER2) in breast cancer have shown considerable problems in accuracy and interlaboratory reproducibility. Although these problems are partly alleviated by the use of validated, standardised 'kits', there may be considerable cost involved in their use. Prior to testing it may therefore be an advantage to be able to predict from basic pathology data whether a cancer is likely to overexpress HER2. In this study, we have correlated pathology features of cancers with the frequency of HER2 overexpression assessed by immunohistochemistry (IHC) using HercepTest (Dako). In addition, fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) has been used to re-test the equivocal cancers and interobserver variation in assessing HER2 overexpression has been examined by a slide circulation scheme. Of the 1536 cancers, 1144 (74.5%) did not overexpress HER2. Unequivocal overexpression (3+ by IHC) was seen in 186 cancers (12%) and an equivocal result (2+ by IHC) was seen in 206 cancers (13%). Of the 156 IHC 3+ cancers for which complete data was available, 149 (95.5%) were ductal NST and 152 (97%) were histological grade 2 or 3. Only 1 of 124 infiltrating lobular carcinomas (0.8%) showed HER2 overexpression. None of the 49 'special types' of carcinoma showed HER2 overexpression. Re-testing by FISH of a proportion of the IHC 2+ cancers showed that only 25 (23%) of those assessable exhibited HER2 gene amplification, but 46 of the 47 IHC 3+ cancers (98%) were confirmed as showing gene amplification. Circulating slides for the assessment of HER2 score showed a moderate level of agreement between pathologists (kappa 0.4). As a result of this study we would advocate consideration of a triage approach to HER-2 testing. Infiltrating lobular and special types of carcinoma may not need to be routinely tested at presentation nor may grade 1 NST carcinomas in which only 1.4% have been shown to overexpress HER2. Testing of these carcinomas may be performed when HER2 status is required to assist in therapeutic or other clinical/prognostic decision-making. The highest yield of HER2 overexpressing carcinomas is seen in the grade 3 NST subgroup in which 24% are positive by IHC. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of a more efficient classifying cyclone

A more efficient classifying cyclone (CC) for fine particle classification has been developed in recent years at the JKMRC. The novel CC, known as the JKCC, has modified profiles of the cyclone body, vortex finder, and spigot when compared to conventional hydrocyclones. The novel design increases the centrifugal force inside the cyclone and mitigates the short circuiting flow that exists in all current cyclones. It also decreases the probability of particle contamination in the place near the cyclone spigot. Consequently the cyclone efficiency is improved while the unit maintains a simple structure. An international patent has been granted for this novel cyclone design. In the first development stage-a feasibility study-a 100 mm JKCC was tested and compared with two 100 min commercial units. Very encouraging results were achieved, indicating good potential for the novel design. In the second development stage-a scale-up stage-the JKCC was scaled up to 200 mm in diameter, and its geometry was optimized through numerous tests. The performance of the JKCC was compared with a 150 nun commercial unit and exhibited sharper separation, finer separation size, and lower flow ratios. The JKCC is now being scaled up into a fill-size (480 mm) hydrocyclone in the third development stage-an industrial study. The 480 mm diameter unit will be tested in an Australian coal preparation plant, and directly compared with a commercial CC operating under the same conditions. Classifying cyclone performance for fine coal could be further improved if the unit is installed in an inclined position. The study using the 200 mm JKCC has revealed that sharpness of separation improved and the flow ratio to underflow was decreased by 43% as the cyclone inclination was varied from the vertical position (0degrees) to the horizontal position (90degrees). The separation size was not affected, although the feed rate was slightly decreased. To ensure self-emptying upon shutdown, it is recommended that the JKCC be installed at an inclination of 75-80degrees. At this angle the cyclone performance is very similar to that at a horizontal position. Similar findings have been derived from the testing of a conventional hydrocyclone. This may be of benefit to operations that require improved performance from their classifying cyclones in terms of sharpness of separation and flow ratio, while tolerating slightly reduced feed rate.

Experimental study of phase equilibria in the PbO-ZnO-"Fe2O3"-(CaO+SiO2) system in air for the lead and zinc blast furnace sinters (CaO/SiO2 weight ratio of 0.933 and PbO/(CaO+SiO2) ratios of 2.0 and 3.2)

Experimental studies on phase equilibria and liquidus in the multicomponent system PbO-ZnO-CaO-SiO2-FeO-Fe2O3 in air have been conducted over the temperature range between 1323 K (1050 degreesC) and 1623 K (1350 degreesC) to characterize the phase relations of the complex slag systems encountered in lead and zinc blast furnace sinters. The liquidus in two pseudoternary sections ZnO-Fe2O3-(PbO + CaO + SiO2) with the CaO/SiO2 weight ratio of 0.933 and PbO/(CaO + SiO2) weight ratios of 2.0 and 3.2 have been constructed.

An international perspective on sunken state vessels as underwater cultural heritage

On 2 November 2001, the General Assembly of the United Nations Scientific, Economic and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) adopted the convention on the Protection of the Underwater Cultural Heritage. Among the many complex issues addressed in the convention is the legal status of sunken state-owned vessels, including warships. Prior to the adoption of this convention, no conventional or customary international law existed with regards to the question of abandonment of state-owned vessels or the application of the principle of sovereign immunity to sunken state vessels. While difficulties between coastal states and maritime and former colonial powers resulted in a regime that does not comprehensively address the issues, the convention does provide some guidance in this regard and may provide a basis for further development.