Predictors of mental health in post-menopausal women : results from the Australian healthy aging of women study

Objective: To examine the extent to which socio-demographics, modifiable lifestyle, and physical health status influence the mental health of post-menopausal Australian women. Methods: Cross-sectional data on health status, chronic disease and modifiable lifestyle factors were collected from a random cross-section of 340 women aged 60-70 years, residing in Queensland, Australia. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was used to measure the effect of a range of socio-demographic characteristics, modifiable lifestyle factors, and health markers (self-reported physical health, history of chronic illness) on the latent construct of mental health status. Mental health was evaluated using the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 12 (SF-12®) which examined and Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D). Results: The model was a good fit for the data (χ2=4.582, df=3, p=0.205) suggesting that mental health is negatively correlated with sleep disturbance (β = -0.612, p <0.001), and a history of depression (β = -0.141, p = 0.024).While mental health was associated with poor sleep, it was not correlated with most lifestyle factors (BMI, alcohol consumption, or cigarette smoking) or socio-demographics like age, income or employment category and they were removed from the final model. Conclusion: Research suggests that it is important to engage in a range of health promoting behaviours to preserve good health. We found that predictors of current mental health status included sleep disturbance, and past mental health problems, while socio-demographics and modifiable lifestyle had little impact. It may be however, that these factors influenced other variables associated with the mental health of post-menopausal women, and these relationships warrant further investigation.

Retrieval of health advice on the web: AEHRC at ShARe/CLEF eHealth Evaluation Lab Task 3

This paper details the participation of the Australian e- Health Research Centre (AEHRC) in the ShARe/CLEF 2013 eHealth Evaluation Lab { Task 3. This task aims to evaluate the use of information retrieval (IR) systems to aid consumers (e.g. patients and their relatives) in seeking health advice on the Web. Our submissions to the ShARe/CLEF challenge are based on language models generated from the web corpus provided by the organisers. Our baseline system is a standard Dirichlet smoothed language model. We enhance the baseline by identifying and correcting spelling mistakes in queries, as well as expanding acronyms using AEHRC's Medtex medical text analysis platform. We then consider the readability and the authoritativeness of web pages to further enhance the quality of the document ranking. Measures of readability are integrated in the language models used for retrieval via prior probabilities. Prior probabilities are also used to encode authoritativeness information derived from a list of top-100 consumer health websites. Empirical results show that correcting spelling mistakes and expanding acronyms found in queries signi cantly improves the e ectiveness of the language model baseline. Readability priors seem to increase retrieval e ectiveness for graded relevance at early ranks (nDCG@5, but not precision), but no improvements are found at later ranks and when considering binary relevance. The authoritativeness prior does not appear to provide retrieval gains over the baseline: this is likely to be because of the small overlap between websites in the corpus and those in the top-100 consumer-health websites we acquired.

Spatiotemporal model or time series model for assessing city-wide temperature effects on mortality?

Most studies examining the temperature–mortality association in a city used temperatures from one site or the average from a network of sites. This may cause measurement error as temperature varies across a city due to effects such as urban heat islands. We examined whether spatiotemporal models using spatially resolved temperatures produced different associations between temperature and mortality compared with time series models that used non-spatial temperatures. We obtained daily mortality data in 163 areas across Brisbane city, Australia from 2000 to 2004. We used ordinary kriging to interpolate spatial temperature variation across the city based on 19 monitoring sites. We used a spatiotemporal model to examine the impact of spatially resolved temperatures on mortality. Also, we used a time series model to examine non-spatial temperatures using a single site and the average temperature from three sites. We used squared Pearson scaled residuals to compare model fit. We found that kriged temperatures were consistent with observed temperatures. Spatiotemporal models using kriged temperature data yielded slightly better model fit than time series models using a single site or the average of three sites' data. Despite this better fit, spatiotemporal and time series models produced similar associations between temperature and mortality. In conclusion, time series models using non-spatial temperatures were equally good at estimating the city-wide association between temperature and mortality as spatiotemporal models.

Effects of hyperbaric oxygen and inducible nitric oxide synthase inhibitor treatment on femoral head osteonecrosis in a rat model

Introduction: Apoptosis is the final destiny of many cells in the body, though this process has been observed in some pathological processes. One of these pathological processes is femoral head non-traumatic osteonecrosis. Among many pro/anti-apoptotic factors, nitric oxide has recently been an area of further interest. Osteocyte apoptosis and its relation to pro-apoptotic action invite further research, and the inducible form of nitric oxide synthase (iNOS)—which produces a high concentration of nitric oxide—has been flagged. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of hyperbaric oxygen (HBO) and inducible NOS suppressor (Aminoguanidine) in prevention of femoral head osteonecrosis in an experimental model of osteonecrosis in spontaneous hypertensive rats (SHRs). Methods: After animal ethic approval 34 SHR rats were divided into four groups. Ten rats were allocated to the control group without any treatment, and eight rats were allocated to three treatment groups namely: HBO, Aminoguanidine (AMG), and the combination of HBO and AMG treatments (HBO+AMG). The HBO group received 250 kPa of oxygen via hyperbaric chamber for 30 days started at their 5th week of life; the AMG group received 1mg/ml of AMG in drinking water from the fifth week till the 17th week of life; and the last group received a combination of these treatments. Rats were sacrificed at the end of the 17th week of life and both femurs were analysed for evidence of osteonecrosis using Micro CT scan and H&E staining. Also, osteocyte apoptosis and the presence of two different forms of NOS (inducible (iNOS) and endothelial (eNOS)) were analysed by immunostaining and apoptosis staining (Hoechst and TUNEL). Results: Bone morphology of metaphyseal and epiphyseal area of all rats were investigated and analysed. Micro CT findings revealed significantly higher mean fractional trabecular bone volume (FBV) of metaphyseal area in untreated SHRs compared with all other treatments (HBO, P<0.05, HBO+AMG, P<0.005, and AMG P<0.001). Bone surface to volume ratio also significantly increased with HBO+AMG and AMG treatments when compared with the control group (18.7 Vs 20.8, P<0.05, and 18.7 Vs 21.1, P<0.05). Epiphyseal mean FBV did not change significantly among groups. In the metaphyseal area, trabecular thickness and numbers significantly decreased with AMG treatment, while trabecular separation significantly increased with both AMG and HBO+AMG treatment. Histological ratio of no ossification and osteonecrosis was 37.5%, 43.7%, 18.7% and 6.2% of control, HBO, HBO+AMG and AMG groups respectively with only significant difference observed between HBO and AMG treatment (P<0.01). High concentration of iNOS was observed in the region of osteonecrosis while there was no evidence of eNOS activity around that region. In comparison with the control group, the ratio of osteocyte apoptosis significantly reduced in AMG treatment (P<0.005). We also observed significantly fewer apoptotic osteocytes in AMG group comparing with HBO treatment (P<0.05). Conclusion: None of our treatments prevents osteonecrosis at the histological or micro CT scan level. High concentration of iNOS in the region of osteonecrosis and significant reduction of osteocyte apoptosis with AMG treatment were supportive of iNOS modulating osteocyte apoptosis in SHRs.

An androgen receptor mutation in the MDA-MB-453 cell line model of molecular apocrine breast cancer compromises receptor activity

Recent evidence indicates that the estrogen receptor-a-negative, androgen receptor (AR)- positive molecular apocrine subtype of breast cancer is driven by AR signaling. The MDA-MB-453 cell line is the prototypical model of this breast cancer subtype; its proliferation is stimulated by androgens such as 5a-dihydrotestosterone (DHT) but inhibited by the progestin medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) via AR-mediated mechanisms. We report here that the AR gene in MDAMB- 453 cells contains a G-T transversion in exon 7, resulting in a receptor variant with a glutamine to histidine substitution at amino acid 865 (Q865H) in the ligand binding domain. Compared with wild-type AR, the Q865H variant exhibited reduced sensitivity to DHT and MPA in transactivation assays in MDA-MB-453 and PC-3 cells but did not respond to non-androgenic ligands or receptor antagonists. Ligand binding, molecular modeling, mammalian two-hybrid and immunoblot assays revealed effects of the Q865H mutation on ligand dissociation, AR intramolecular interactions, and receptor stability. Microarray expression profiling demonstrated that DHT and MPA regulate distinct transcriptional programs in MDA-MB-453 cells. Gene Set Enrichment Analysis revealed that DHT- but not MPA-regulated genes were associated with estrogen-responsive transcriptomes from MCF-7 cells and the Wnt signaling pathway. These findings suggest that the divergent proliferative responses of MDA-MB-453 cells to DHT and MPA result from the different genetic programs elicited by these two ligands through the AR-Q865H variant. This work highlights the necessity to characterize additional models of molecular apocrine breast cancer to determine the precise role of AR signaling in this breast cancer subtype. Endocrine-Related Cancer (2012) 19 599–613

Privacy oriented access control for electronic health records

Information privacy is a critical success/failure factor in information technology supported healthcare (eHealth). eHealth systems utilise electronic health records (EHR) as the main source of information, thus, implementing appropriate privacy preserving methods for EHRs is vital for the proliferation of eHealth. Whilst information privacy may be a fundamental requirement for eHealth consumers, healthcare professionals demand non-restricted access to patient information for improved healthcare delivery, thus, creating an environment where stakeholder requirements are contradictory. Therefore, there is a need to achieve an appropriate balance of requirements in order to build successful eHealth systems. Towards achieving this balance, a new genre of eHealth systems called Accountable-eHealth (AeH) systems has been proposed. In this paper, an access control model for EHRs is presented that can be utilised by AeH systems to create information usage policies that fulfil both stakeholders’ requirements. These policies are used to accomplish the aforementioned balance of requirements creating a satisfactory eHealth environment for all stakeholders. The access control model is validated using a Web based prototype as a proof of concept.

Building an augmented map for road risk assessment

Recent road safety statistics show that the decades-long fatalities decreasing trend is stopping and stagnating. Statistics further show that crashes are mostly driven by human error, compared to other factors such as environmental conditions and mechanical defects. Within human error, the dominant error source is perceptive errors, which represent about 50% of the total. The next two sources are interpretation and evaluation, which accounts together with perception for more than 75% of human error related crashes. Those statistics show that allowing drivers to perceive and understand their environment better, or supplement them when they are clearly at fault, is a solution to a good assessment of road risk, and, as a consequence, further decreasing fatalities. To answer this problem, currently deployed driving assistance systems combine more and more information from diverse sources (sensors) to enhance the driver's perception of their environment. However, because of inherent limitations in range and field of view, these systems' perception of their environment remains largely limited to a small interest zone around a single vehicle. Such limitations can be overcomed by increasing the interest zone through a cooperative process. Cooperative Systems (CS), a specific subset of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), aim at compensating for local systems' limitations by associating embedded information technology and intervehicular communication technology (IVC). With CS, information sources are not limited to a single vehicle anymore. From this distribution arises the concept of extended or augmented perception. Augmented perception allows extending an actor's perceptive horizon beyond its "natural" limits not only by fusing information from multiple in-vehicle sensors but also information obtained from remote sensors. The end result of an augmented perception and data fusion chain is known as an augmented map. It is a repository where any relevant information about objects in the environment, and the environment itself, can be stored in a layered architecture. This thesis aims at demonstrating that augmented perception has better performance than noncooperative approaches, and that it can be used to successfully identify road risk. We found it was necessary to evaluate the performance of augmented perception, in order to obtain a better knowledge on their limitations. Indeed, while many promising results have already been obtained, the feasibility of building an augmented map from exchanged local perception information and, then, using this information beneficially for road users, has not been thoroughly assessed yet. The limitations of augmented perception, and underlying technologies, have not be thoroughly assessed yet. Most notably, many questions remain unanswered as to the IVC performance and their ability to deliver appropriate quality of service to support life-saving critical systems. This is especially true as the road environment is a complex, highly variable setting where many sources of imperfections and errors exist, not only limited to IVC. We provide at first a discussion on these limitations and a performance model built to incorporate them, created from empirical data collected on test tracks. Our results are more pessimistic than existing literature, suggesting IVC limitations have been underestimated. Then, we develop a new CS-applications simulation architecture. This architecture is used to obtain new results on the safety benefits of a cooperative safety application (EEBL), and then to support further study on augmented perception. At first, we confirm earlier results in terms of crashes numbers decrease, but raise doubts on benefits in terms of crashes' severity. In the next step, we implement an augmented perception architecture tasked with creating an augmented map. Our approach is aimed at providing a generalist architecture that can use many different types of sensors to create the map, and which is not limited to any specific application. The data association problem is tackled with an MHT approach based on the Belief Theory. Then, augmented and single-vehicle perceptions are compared in a reference driving scenario for risk assessment,taking into account the IVC limitations obtained earlier; we show their impact on the augmented map's performance. Our results show that augmented perception performs better than non-cooperative approaches, allowing to almost tripling the advance warning time before a crash. IVC limitations appear to have no significant effect on the previous performance, although this might be valid only for our specific scenario. Eventually, we propose a new approach using augmented perception to identify road risk through a surrogate: near-miss events. A CS-based approach is designed and validated to detect near-miss events, and then compared to a non-cooperative approach based on vehicles equiped with local sensors only. The cooperative approach shows a significant improvement in the number of events that can be detected, especially at the higher rates of system's deployment.

Packed red blood cells suppress myeloid dendritic cell and monocyte inflammatory responses in a whole blood model of transfusion

Purpose/Objective: The basis for poor outcomes in some patients post transfusion remains largely unknown. Despite leukodepletion, there is still evidence of immunomodulatory effects of transfusion that require further study. In addition, there is evidence that the age of blood components transfused significantly affects patient outcomes. Myeloid dendritic cell (DC) and monocyte immune function were studied utilising an in vitro whole blood model of transfusion. Materials and methods: Freshly collected (‘recipient’) whole blood was cultured with ABO compatible leukodepleted PRBC at 25% blood replacement-volume (6hrs). PRBC were assayed at [Day (D) 2, 14, 28and 42 (date-of expiry)]. In parallel, LPS or Zymosan (Zy) were added to mimic infection. Recipients were maintained for the duration of the time course (2 recipients, 4 PRBC units, n = 8).Recipient DC and monocyte intracellular cytokines and chemokines (IL-6, IL-10, IL-12,TNF-a, IL-1a, IL-8, IP-10, MIP-1a, MIP-1b, MCP-1) were measured using flow cytometry. Changes in immune response were calculated by comparison to a parallel no transfusion control (Wilcoxin matched pairs). Influence of storage age was calculated using ANOVA. Results: Significant suppression of DC and monocyte inflammatory responses were evident. DC and monocyte production of IL-1a was reduced following exposure to PRBC regardless of storage age (P < 0.05 at all time points). Storage independent PRBC mediated suppression of DC and monocyte IL-1a was also evident in cultures costimulated with Zy. In cultures co-stimulated with either LPS or Zy, significant suppression of DC and monocyte TNF-a and IL-6 was also evident. PRBC storage attenuated monocyte TNF-a production when co-cultured with LPS (P < 0.01 ANOVA). DC and monocyte production of MIP-1a was significantly reduced following exposure to PRBC (DC: P < 0.05 at D2, 28, 42; Monocyte P < 0.05 all time points). In cultures co-stimulated with LPS and zymosan, a similar suppression of MIP-1a production was also evident, and production of both DC and monocyte MIP-1b and IP-10 were also significantly reduced. Conclusions: The complexity of the transfusion context was reflected in the whole blood approach utilised. Significant suppression of these key DC and monocyte immune responses may contribute to patient outcomes, such as increased risk of infection and longer hospital stay, following blood transfusion.

Bridging the biology of the ovine TRALI model – human inflammatory cell responses to TRALI inducing supernatants

Background Transfusion-related acute lung injury (TRALI) is a serious and potentially fatal consequence of transfusion. A two-event TRALI model demonstrated date-of-expiry - day (D) 5 platelet (PLT) and D42 packed red blood cell (PRBC) supernatants (SN) induced TRALI in LPS-treated sheep. We have adapted a whole blood transfusion culture model as an investigative bridge between the ovine TRALI model human responses to transfusion. Methods A whole blood transfusion model was adapted to replicate the ovine model - specifically +/- 0.23μg/mL LPS as the first event and 10% SN volume (transfusion) as the second event. Four pooled SN from blood products, previously used in the TRALI ovine model, were investigated: D1-PLT, D5-PLT, D1-PRBC, and D42-PRBC. Fresh human whole blood (recipient) was mixed with combinations of LPS and BP-SN stimuli and incubated in vitro for 6 hrs. Addition of golgi plug enabled measurement of monocyte cytokine production (IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12, TNF-α, IL-1α, CXCL-5, IP-10, MIP-1α, MCP-1) using multi-colour flow cytometry. Responses for 6 recipients were assessed. Results In the presence of LPS, D42-PRBC-SN significantly increased monocyte IL-6 (P=0.031), IL-8 (P=0.016) and IL-1α (P=0.008) production compared to D1-PRBC-SN. This response to D42-PRBC-SN was LPS-dependent, and was not evident in non-LPSstimulated controls. This response was also specific to D42-PRBC-SN, as similar changes were not evident for the D5-PLT-SN, compared to the D1-PLT-SN, regardless of the presence of LPS. D5-PLT-SN significantly increased IL-12 production (P=0.024) compared to D1-PLT-SN. This response was again LPS-dependent. Conclusions These data demonstrate a novel two-event mechanism of monocyte inflammatory response that was dependent upon both the presence of date-of-expiry blood product SN and LPS. Further, these results demonstrate different cytokines responses induced by date-of-expiry PLT-SN and PRBC-SN. These data are consistent with the evidence from the ovine TRALI model, and enhancing its relevance to transfusion related changes in humans.

Princess Alexandra Hospital model of comprehensive geriatric assessment of cancer patients : methodological and logistical aspects

There is increasing momentum in cancer care to implement a two stage assessment process that accurately determines the ability of older patients to cope with, and benefit from, chemotherapy. The two-step approach aims to ensure that patients clearly fit for chemotherapy can be accurately identified and referred for treatment without undergoing a time- and resource-intensive comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA). Ideally, this process removes the uncertainty of how to classify and then appropriately treat the older cancer patient. After trialling a two-stage screen and CGA process in the Division of Cancer Services at Princess Alexandra Hospital (PAH) in 2011-2012, we implemented a model of oncogeriatric care based on our findings. In this paper, we explore the methodological and practical aspects of implementing the PAH model and outline further work needed to refine the process in our treatment context.

The development of a kinematic model to quantify in-shoe foot motion

A multi-segment foot model was used to develop an accurate and reliable kinematic model to describe in-shoe foot kinematics during gait.

A cross-discipline and collaborative approach to identifying the predictors of environmentally friendly and health protective behaviour

Background. As a society, our interaction with the environment is having a negative impact on human health. For example, an increase in car use for short trips, over walking or cycling, has contributed to an increase in obesity, diabetes and poor heart health and also contributes to pollution, which is associated with asthma and other respiratory diseases. In order to change the nature of that interaction, to be more positive and healthy, it is recommended that individuals adopt a range of environmentally friendly behaviours (such as walking for transport and reducing the use of plastics). Effective interventions aimed at increasing such behaviours will need to be evidence based and there is a need for the rapid communication of information from the point of research, into policy and practice. Further, a number of health disciplines, including psychology and public health, share a common mission to promote health and well-being. Therefore, the objective of this project is to take a cross-discipline and collaborative approach to reveal psychological mechanisms driving environmentally friendly behaviour. This objective is further divided into three broad aims, the first of which is to take a cross-discipline and collaborative approach to research. The second aim is to explore and identify the salient beliefs which most strongly predict environmentally friendly behaviour. The third aim is to build an augmented model to explain environmentally friendly behaviour. The thesis builds on the understanding that an interdisciplinary collaborative approach will facilitate the rapid transfer of knowledge to inform behaviour change interventions. Methods. The application of this approach involved two surveys which explored the psycho-social predictors of environmentally friendly behaviour. Following a qualitative pilot study, and in collaboration with an expert panel comprising academics, industry professionals and government representatives, a self-administered, Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) based, mail survey was distributed to a random sample of 3000 residents of Brisbane and Moreton Bay Region (Queensland, Australia). This survey explored specific beliefs including attitudes, norms, perceived control, intention and behaviour, as well as environmental altruism and green identity, in relation to walking for transport and switching off lights when not in use. Following analysis of the mail survey data and based on feedback from participants and key stakeholders, an internet survey was employed (N=451) to explore two additional behaviours, switching off appliances at the wall when not in use, and shopping with reusable bags. This work is presented as a series of interrelated publications which address each of the research aims. Presentation of Findings. Chapter five of this thesis consists of a published paper which addresses the first aim of the research and outlines the collaborative and multidisciplinary approach employed in the mail survey. The paper argued that forging alliances with those who are in a position to immediately utilise the findings of research has the potential to improve the quality and timely communication of research. Illustrating this timely communication, Chapter six comprises a report presented to Moreton Bay Regional Council (MBRC). This report addresses aim's one and two. The report contains a summary of participation in a range of environmentally friendly behaviours and identifies the beliefs which most strongly predicted walking for transport and switching off lights (from the mail survey). These salient beliefs were then recommended as targets for interventions and included: participants believing that they might save money; that their neighbours also switch off lights; that it would be inconvenient to walk for transport and that their closest friend also walks for transport. Chapter seven also addresses the second aim and presents a published conference paper in which the salient beliefs predicting the four specified behaviours (from both surveys) are identified and potential applications for intervention are discussed. Again, a range of TPB based beliefs, including descriptive normative beliefs, were predictive of environmentally friendly behaviour. This paper was also provided to MBRC, along with recommendations for applying the findings. For example, as descriptive normative beliefs were consistently correlated with environmentally friendly behaviour, local councils could engage in marketing and interventions (workshops, letter box drops, internet promotions) which encourage parents and friends to model, rather than simply encourage, environmentally friendly behaviour. The final two papers, presented in Chapters eight and nine, addresses the third aim of the project. These papers each present two behaviours together to inform a TPB based theoretical model with which to predict environmentally friendly behaviour. A generalised model is presented, which is found to predict the four specific behaviours under investigation. The role of demographics was explored across each of the behaviour specific models. It was found that some behaviour's differ by age, gender, income or education. In particular, adjusted models predicted more of the variance in walking for transport amongst younger participants and females. Adjusted models predicted more variance in switching off lights amongst those with a bachelor degree or higher and predicted more variance in switching off appliances amongst those on a higher income. Adjusted models predicted more variance in shopping with reusable bags for males, people 40 years or older, those on a higher income and those with a bachelor degree or higher. However, model structure and general predictability was relatively consistent overall. The models provide a general theoretical framework from which to better understand the motives and predictors of environmentally friendly behaviour. Conclusion. This research has provided an example of the benefits of a collaborative interdisciplinary approach. It has identified a number of salient beliefs which can be targeted for social marketing campaigns and educational initiatives; and these findings, along with recommendations, have been passed on to a local council to be used as part of their ongoing community engagement programs. Finally, the research has informed a practical model, as well as behaviour specific models, for predicting sustainable living behaviours. Such models can highlight important core constructs from which targeted interventions can be designed. Therefore, this research represents an important step in undertaking collaborative approaches to improving population health through human-environment interactions.

Characterisation of Polycaprolatone-Based Scaffold Plus Recombinant Human Morphogenetic Protein - 2 (RHBMP-2) in an Ovine Thoracic Spine Model

This thesis represents a step forward in the development of a pre-clinical model investigating a suitable substitute for host bone for use in human spinal fusion. By way of an animal model, it examines the biological performance of a novel bone graft substitute comprised of a combination of a custom-designed biodegradable material and biologics.

A novel characterisation model for microvasulature changes following closed soft tissue trauma using micro-CT imaging

INTRODUCTION There is evidence that the reduction of blood perfusion caused by closed soft tissue trauma (CSTT) delays the healing of the affected soft tissues and bone [1]. We hypothesise that the characterisation of vascular morphology changes (VMC) following injury allows us to determine the effect of the injury on tissue perfusion and thereby the severity of the injury. This research therefore aims to assess the VMC following CSTT in a rat model using contrast-enhanced micro-CT imaging. METHODOLOGY A reproducible CSTT was created on the left leg of anaesthetized rats (male, 12 weeks) with an impact device. After euthanizing the animals at 6 and 24 hours following trauma, the vasculature was perfused with a contrast agent (Microfil, Flowtech, USA). Both hind-limbs were dissected and imaged using micro-CT for qualitative comparison of the vascular morphology and quantification of the total vascular volume (VV). In addition, biopsy samples were taken from the CSTT region and scanned to compare morphological parameters of the vasculature between the injured and control limbs. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION While the visual observation of the hindlimb scans showed consistent perfusion of the microvasculature with microfil, enabling the identification of all major blood vessels, no clear differences in the vascular architecture were observed between injured and control limbs. However, overall VV within the region of interest (ROI)was  measured to be higher for the injured limbs after 24h. Also, scans of biopsy samples demonstrated that vessel diameter and density were higher in the injured legs 24h after impact. CONCLUSION We believe these results will contribute to the development of objective diagnostic methods for CSTT based on changes to the microvascular morphology as well as aiding in the validation of future non-invasive clinical assessment modalities.

A Bayesian network approach to modelling temporal behaviour of Lyngbya majuscula bloom initiation

Lyngbya majuscula is a cyanobacterium (blue-green algae) occurring naturally in tropical and subtropical coastal areas worldwide. Deception Bay, in Northern Moreton Bay, Queensland, has a history of Lyngbya blooms, and forms a case study for this investigation. The South East Queensland (SEQ) Healthy Waterways Partnership, collaboration between government, industry, research and the community, was formed to address issues affecting the health of the river catchments and waterways of South East Queensland. The Partnership coordinated the Lyngbya Research and Management Program (2005-2007) which culminated in a Coastal Algal Blooms (CAB) Action Plan for harmful and nuisance algal blooms, such as Lyngbya majuscula. This first phase of the project was predominantly of a scientific nature and also facilitated the collection of additional data to better understand Lyngbya blooms. The second phase of this project, SEQ Healthy Waterways Strategy 2007-2012, is now underway to implement the CAB Action Plan and as such is more management focussed. As part of the first phase of the project, a Science model for the initiation of a Lyngbya bloom was built using Bayesian Networks (BN). The structure of the Science Bayesian Network was built by the Lyngbya Science Working Group (LSWG) which was drawn from diverse disciplines. The BN was then quantified with annual data and expert knowledge. Scenario testing confirmed the expected temporal nature of bloom initiation and it was recommended that the next version of the BN be extended to take this into account. Elicitation for this BN thus occurred at three levels: design, quantification and verification. The first level involved construction of the conceptual model itself, definition of the nodes within the model and identification of sources of information to quantify the nodes. The second level included elicitation of expert opinion and representation of this information in a form suitable for inclusion in the BN. The third and final level concerned the specification of scenarios used to verify the model. The second phase of the project provides the opportunity to update the network with the newly collected detailed data obtained during the previous phase of the project. Specifically the temporal nature of Lyngbya blooms is of interest. Management efforts need to be directed to the most vulnerable periods to bloom initiation in the Bay. To model the temporal aspects of Lyngbya we are using Object Oriented Bayesian networks (OOBN) to create ‘time slices’ for each of the periods of interest during the summer. OOBNs provide a framework to simplify knowledge representation and facilitate reuse of nodes and network fragments. An OOBN is more hierarchical than a traditional BN with any sub-network able to contain other sub-networks. Connectivity between OOBNs is an important feature and allows information flow between the time slices. This study demonstrates more sophisticated use of expert information within Bayesian networks, which combine expert knowledge with data (categorized using expert-defined thresholds) within an expert-defined model structure. Based on the results from the verification process the experts are able to target areas requiring greater precision and those exhibiting temporal behaviour. The time slices incorporate the data for that time period for each of the temporal nodes (instead of using the annual data from the previous static Science BN) and include lag effects to allow the effect from one time slice to flow to the next time slice. We demonstrate a concurrent steady increase in the probability of initiation of a Lyngbya bloom and conclude that the inclusion of temporal aspects in the BN model is consistent with the perceptions of Lyngbya behaviour held by the stakeholders. This extended model provides a more accurate representation of the increased risk of algal blooms in the summer months and show that the opinions elicited to inform a static BN can be readily extended to a dynamic OOBN, providing more comprehensive information for decision makers.