Estimation of parametric and nonparametric models for univariate claim severity distributions - an approach using R

This paper presents an analysis of motor vehicle insurance claims relating to vehicle damage and to associated medical expenses. We use univariate severity distributions estimated with parametric and non-parametric methods. The methods are implemented using the statistical package R. Parametric analysis is limited to estimation of normal and lognormal distributions for each of the two claim types. The nonparametric analysis presented involves kernel density estimation. We illustrate the benefits of applying transformations to data prior to employing kernel based methods. We use a log-transformation and an optimal transformation amongst a class of transformations that produces symmetry in the data. The central aim of this paper is to provide educators with material that can be used in the classroom to teach statistical estimation methods, goodness of fit analysis and importantly statistical computing in the context of insurance and risk management. To this end, we have included in the Appendix of this paper all the R code that has been used in the analysis so that readers, both students and educators, can fully explore the techniques described

A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

Apport de la systématique dans l'amélioration de la compréhension des systèmes de prise en compte des risques en entreprise

La gestion des risques est souvent appréhendée par l'utilisation de méthodes linéaires mettant l'accent sur des raisonnements de positionnement et de type causal : à tel événement correspond tel risque et telle conséquence. Une prise en compte des interrelations entre risques est souvent occultée et les risques sont rarement analysés dans leurs dynamiques et composantes non linéaires. Ce travail présente ce que les méthodes systémiques et notamment l'étude des systèmes complexes sont susceptibles d'apporter en matière de compréhension, de management et d'anticipation et de gestion des risques d'entreprise, tant sur le plan conceptuel que de matière appliquée. En partant des définitions relatives aux notions de systèmes et de risques dans différents domaines, ainsi que des méthodes qui sont utilisées pour maîtriser les risques, ce travail confronte cet ensemble à ce qu'apportent les approches d'analyse systémique et de modélisation des systèmes complexes. En mettant en évidence les effets parfois réducteurs des méthodes de prise en compte des risques en entreprise ainsi que les limitations des univers de risques dues, notamment, à des définitions mal adaptées, ce travail propose également, pour la Direction d'entreprise, une palette des outils et approches différentes, qui tiennent mieux compte de la complexité, pour gérer les risques, pour aligner stratégie et management des risques, ainsi que des méthodes d'analyse du niveau de maturité de l'entreprise en matière de gestion des risques. - Risk management is often assessed through linear methods which stress positioning and causal logical frameworks: to such events correspond such consequences and such risks accordingly. Consideration of the interrelationships between risks is often overlooked and risks are rarely analyzed in their dynamic and nonlinear components. This work shows what systemic methods, including the study of complex systems, are likely to bring to knowledge, management, anticipation of business risks, both on the conceptual and the practical sides. Based on the definitions of systems and risks in various areas, as well as methods used to manage risk, this work confronts these concepts with approaches of complex systems analysis and modeling. This work highlights the reducing effects of some business risk analysis methods as well as limitations of risk universes caused in particular by unsuitable definitions. As a result this work also provides chief officers with a range of different tools and approaches which allows them a better understanding of complexity and as such a gain in efficiency in their risk management practices. It results in a better fit between strategy and risk management. Ultimately the firm gains in its maturity of risk management.

How to use the standard model with own data?

In this work discuss the use of the standard model for the calculation of the solvency capital requirement (SCR) when the company aims to use the specific parameters of the model on the basis of the experience of its portfolio. In particular, this analysis focuses on the formula presented in the latest quantitative impact study (2010 CEIOPS) for non-life underwriting premium and reserve risk. One of the keys of the standard model for premium and reserves risk is the correlation matrix between lines of business. In this work we present how the correlation matrix between lines of business could be estimated from a quantitative perspective, as well as the possibility of using a credibility model for the estimation of the matrix of correlation between lines of business that merge qualitative and quantitative perspective.

NanoImpactNet - Stakeholders' knowledge needs for research on the health and environmental impact of nanomaterials

NanoImpactNet (NIN) is a multidisciplinary European Commission funded network on the environmental, health and safety (EHS) impact of nanomaterials. The 24 founding scientific institutes are leading European research groups active in the fields of nanosafety, nanorisk assessment and nanotoxicology. This 4−year project is the new focal point for information exchange within the research community. Contact with other stakeholders is vital and their needs are being surveyed. NIN is communicating with 100s of stakeholders: businesses; internet platforms; industry associations; regulators; policy makers; national ministries; international agencies; standard−setting bodies and NGOs concerned by labour rights, EHS or animal welfare. To improve this communication, internet research, a questionnaire distributed via partners and targeted phone calls were used to identify stakeholders' interests and needs. Knowledge gaps and the necessity for further data mentioned by representatives of all stakeholder groups in the targeted phone calls concerned: potential toxic and safety hazards of nanomaterials throughout their lifecycles; fate and persistence of nanoparticles in humans, animals and the environment; risks associated to nanoparticle exposure; participation in the preparation of nomenclature, standards, methodologies, protocols and benchmarks; development of best practice guidelines; voluntary schemes on responsibility; databases of materials, research topics and themes. Findings show that stakeholders and NIN researchers share very similar knowledge needs, and that open communication and free movement of knowledge will benefit both researchers and industry. Consequently NIN will encourage stakeholders to be active members. These survey findings will be used to improve NIN's communication tools to further build on interdisciplinary relationships towards a healthy future with nanotechnology.

Mycophenolic acid formulations in adult renal transplantation - update on efficacy and tolerability.

The description more than 30 years ago of the role of de novo purine synthesis in T and B lymphocytes clonal proliferation opened the possibility for selective immunosuppression by targeting specific enzymatic pathways. Mycophenolic acid (MPA) blocks the key enzyme inosine monophosphate dehydrogenase and the production of guanosine nucleotides required for DNA synthesis. Two MPA formulations are currently used in clinical transplantation as part of the maintenance immunosuppressive regimen. Mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) was the first MPA agent to be approved for the prevention of acute rejection following renal transplantation, in combination with cyclosporine and steroids. Enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium (EC-MPS) is an alternative MPA formulation available in clinical transplantation. In this review, we will discuss the clinical trials that have evaluated the efficacy and safety of MPA in adult kidney transplantation for the prevention of acute rejection and their use in new combination regimens aiming at minimizing calcineurin inhibitor toxicity and chronic allograft nephropathy. We will also discuss MPA pharmacokinetics and the rationale for therapeutic drug monitoring in optimizing the balance between efficacy and safety in individual patients.

Framework for Corporate and Financial Governance for Regulatory Bodies under the aegis of the Department of Health and Children

The document should be read as supplementary to existing requirements as set out both in statute â?" particularly legislation specific to your organisation, the Health Acts 1947-2004, Ombudsman Act, 1980, Data Protection Acts 1988 & 2003, Freedom of Information Acts 1997-2003, Ethics in Public Office Acts 1995 & 2001, Ombudsman for Children Act, 2002 and the Comptroller and Auditor General (Amendment) Act, 1993 – and in Government approved guidelines, including the Code of Practice for the Governance of State Bodies (2001), Public Financial Procedures, The Role and Responsibilities of Accounting Officers (2003) and Risk Management Guidance for Government Departments and Offices (2004). Read the report (PDF, 1.4mb)  

NanoImpactNet - building a multi-stakeholder dialogue on the health and environmental impact of nanomaterials

NanoImpactNet (NIN) is a multidisciplinary European Commission funded network on the environmental, health and safety (EHS) impact of nanomaterials. The 24 founding scientific institutes are leading European research groups active in the fields of nanosafety, nanorisk assessment and nanotoxicology. This 4-year project is the new focal point for information exchange within the research community. Contact with other stakeholders is vital and their needs are being surveyed. NIN is communicating with 100s of stakeholders: businesses; internet platforms; industry associations; regulators; policy makers; national ministries; international agencies; standard-setting bodies and NGOs concerned by labour rights, EHS or animal welfare. To improve this communication, internet research, a questionnaire distributed via partners and targeted phone calls were used to identify stakeholders' interests and needs. Knowledge gaps and the necessity for further data mentioned by representatives of all stakeholder groups in the targeted phone calls concerned: • the potential toxic and safety hazards of nanomaterials throughout their lifecycles; • the fate and persistence of nanoparticles in humans, animals and the environment; • the associated risks of nanoparticle exposure; • greater participation in: the preparation of nomenclature, standards, methodologies, protocols and benchmarks; • the development of best practice guidelines; • voluntary schemes on responsibility; • databases of materials, research topics and themes, but also of expertise. These findings suggested that stakeholders and NIN researchers share very similar knowledge needs, and that open communication and free movement of knowledge will benefit both researchers and industry. Subsequently a workshop was organised by NIN focused on building a sustainable multi-stakeholder dialogue. Specific questions were asked to different stakeholder groups to encourage discussions and open communication. 1. What information do stakeholders need from researchers and why? The discussions about this question confirmed the needs identified in the targeted phone calls. 2. How to communicate information? While it was agreed that reporting should be enhanced, commercial confidentiality and economic competition were identified as major obstacles. It was recognised that expertise was needed in the areas of commercial law and economics for a wellinformed treatment of this communication issue. 3. Can engineered nanomaterials be used safely? The idea that nanomaterials are probably safe because some of them have been produced 'for a long time', was questioned, since many materials in common use have been proved to be unsafe. The question of safety is also about whether the public has confidence. New legislation like REACH could help with this issue. Hazards do not materialise if exposure can be avoided or at least significantly reduced. Thus, there is a need for information on what can be regarded as acceptable levels of exposure. Finally, it was noted that there is no such thing as a perfectly safe material but only boundaries. At this moment we do not know where these boundaries lie. The matter of labelling of products containing nanomaterials was raised, as in the public mind safety and labelling are connected. This may need to be addressed since the issue of nanomaterials in food, drink and food packaging may be the first safety issue to attract public and media attention, and this may have an impact on 'nanotechnology as a whole. 4. Do we need more or other regulation? Any decision making process should accommodate the changing level of uncertainty. To address the uncertainties, adaptations of frameworks such as REACH may be indicated for nanomaterials. Regulation is often needed even if voluntary measures are welcome because it mitigates the effects of competition between industries. Data cannot be collected on voluntary bases for example. NIN will continue with an active stakeholder dialogue to further build on interdisciplinary relationships towards a healthy future with nanotechnology.

Proposing a 'Consent Commons' in open education - balancing the desire for openness with the rights of people to refuse or withdraw from participation

A new 'Consent Commons' licensing framework is proposed, complementing Creative Commons, to clarify the permissions given for using and reusing clinical and non-clinical digital recordings of people (patients and non-patients) for educational purposes. Consent Commons is a sophisticated expression of ethically based 'digital professionalism', which recognises the rights of patients, carers, their families, teachers, clinicians, students and members of the public to have some say in how their digital recordings are used (including refusing or withdrawing their consent), and is necessary in order to ensure the long term sustainability of teaching materials, including Open Educational Resources (OER). Consent Commons can ameliorate uncertainty about the status of educational resources depicting people, and protect institutions from legal risk by developing robust and sophisticated policies and promoting best practice in managing their information.

Estrategia para la seguridad del paciente en el SSPA 2011-2014

En soporte papel, está acompañada por el "Análisis de la implementación de la Estrategia para la Seguridad del Paciente en el SSPA 2006-2010."

Análisis de la implementación de la estrategia para la seguridad del paciente en el SSPA 2006-2010

Es la evaluación del desarrollo de la implantación de la "Estrategia para la Seguridad del Paciente 2006-2010" en Andalucía.En soporte papel, acompaña a la "Estrategia para la seguridad del paciente en el SSPA 2011-2014".

Anàlisi i redisseny de la xarxa de distribució d’ aigua potable a alta pressió de Santa Cristina d’ Aro.

En el present treball es realitza un estudi hidràulic i de qualitat de les aigües de la xarxa municipal per tal d’analitzar en primer lloc el seu estat actual i proposar posteriorment una sèrie d’actuacions de millora. Això s’ha desenvolupat amb l’ajuda d’un programa de simulació de xarxes hidràuliques i de qualitat, en ser l’estudi d’una elevada envergadura, que feia inviable l’estudi empíric de la instal•lació. El simulador utilitzat ha estat l’EPANET, el qual va estar elaborat per la NATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT RESEARCH LABORATORY de Cincinatty, als Estats Units i traduït a l’espanyol pel grup REDHISP Inst. Ingenieria del agua y M.A. de la Universitat Politècnica de València