Progress in integrated assessment and modelling

Environmental processes have been modelled for decades. However. the need for integrated assessment and modeling (IAM) has,town as the extent and severity of environmental problems in the 21st Century worsens. The scale of IAM is not restricted to the global level as in climate change models, but includes local and regional models of environmental problems. This paper discusses various definitions of IAM and identifies five different types of integration that Lire needed for the effective solution of environmental problems. The future is then depicted in the form of two brief scenarios: one optimistic and one pessimistic. The current state of IAM is then briefly reviewed. The issues of complexity and validation in IAM are recognised as more complex than in traditional disciplinary approaches. Communication is identified as a central issue both internally among team members and externally with decision-makers. stakeholders and other scientists. Finally it is concluded that the process of integrated assessment and modelling is considered as important as the product for any particular project. By learning to work together and recognise the contribution of all team members and participants, it is believed that we will have a strong scientific and social basis to address the environmental problems of the 21st Century. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Semisolid casting of AlSi7Mg0.35 alloy produced by low-temperature pouring

AlSi7Mg0.35 alloy was cast into permanent moulds using different pouring temperatures (725 to 625degreesC). As the pouring temperature decreased, the as-cast microstructure changed from a coarse dendritic structure, through fine equiaxed grains to fine rosette-like grains. The as-cast materials were then partially remelted and isothermally held at 580degreesC prior to semisolid casting into a stepped die. The feedstock material cast from a high temperature filled only half the die, with severe segregation and other defects. The low-temperature-poured material completely filled the die with negligible porosity. The quality of semisolid castings is significantly affected by the microstructure of the semisolid feedstock material that arises from a combination of as-cast and subsequent thermal treatment conditions. The paper describes (a) the influence of pouring temperature on the microstructure of feedstock; (b) microstructure evolution through remelting and (c) the quality of semisolid castings produced with this material. For A17Si0.35Mg alloy, low temperature pouring in the range of 625-650degreesC followed by suitable isothermal holding treatment can result in good quality semisolid casting.

Effects of alcohol exposure during early life on neuron numbers in the rat hippocampus. I. Hilus neurons and granule cells

We previously showed that 16-day-old rats exposed to a relatively high dose of ethanol at 10-15 postnatal days of age have fewer neurons in the hilus region of the hippocampus compared with controls. Dentate gyrus granule cell numbers, however, showed no statistically significant changes attributable to the ethanol treatment. It is possible that some of the changes in brain morphology, brought about as a result of the exposure to ethanol during early life, may not be manifested until later in life. This question has been further addressed in an extension to our previous study. Wistar rats were exposed to a relatively high daily dose of ethanol on postnatal days 10-15 by placement in a chamber containing ethanol vapour, for 3 h/day. The blood ethanol concentration was found to be similar to430 mg/dl at the end of the period of exposure. Groups of ethanol-treated (ET), separation control (SC), and mother-reared control (MRC) rats were anaesthetised and killed either at 16 or 30 days of age by perfusion with phosphate-buffered 2.5% glutaraldehyde. The Cavalieri principle and the physical disector methods were used to estimate, respectively, the regional volumes and neuron cell numerical densities in the hilus and granule cell regions of the dentate gyrus. The total numbers of neurons in the hilus region and granule cell layer were computed from these estimates. It was found that 16-day-old animals had 398,000-441,000 granule cells, irrespective of group. The numbers of granule cells increased such that by 30 days of age, rats had 487,000-525,500 granule cells. However, there were no significant differences between ethanol-treated rats and their age-matched controls in granule cell numbers. In contrast, ethanol-treated rats had slightly but significantly fewer neurons in the hilus region than did control animals at 16 days of age, but not at 30 days of age. Therefore, it appears that a short period of ethanol exposure during early life can have effects on neuron numbers of some hippocampal neurons, but not others. The effects on hilar neuron numbers, observed as a result of such short periods of ethanol treatment, appeared to be transitory. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Cooperation of cytokine signaling with chimeric transcription factors in leukemogenesis: PML-retinoic acid receptor alpha blocks growth factor-mediated differentiation

We utilized a mouse model of acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) to investigate how aberrant activation of cytokine signaling pathways interacts with chimeric transcription factors to generate acute myeloid leukemia. Expression in mice of the APL-associated fusion, PML-RARA, initially has only modest effects on myelopoiesis. Whereas treatment of control animals with interleukin-3 (IL-3) resulted in expanded myelopoiesis without a block in differentiation, PML-RARA abrogated differentiation that normally characterizes the response to IL-3. Retroviral transduction of bone marrow with an IL-3-expressing retrovirus revealed that IL-3 and promyelocytic leukemia-retinoic acid receptor alpha (PML-RARalpha) combined to generate a lethal leukemia-like syndrome in

Predicting energy requirements in the clinical setting: Are current methods evidence based?

Estimating energy requirements is necessary in clinical practice when indirect calorimetry is impractical. This paper systematically reviews current methods for estimating energy requirements. Conclusions include: there is discrepancy between the characteristics of populations upon which predictive equations are based and current populations; tools are not well understood, and patient care can be compromised by inappropriate application of the tools. Data comparing tools and methods are presented and issues for practitioners are discussed. (C) 2003 International Life Sciences Institute.

Effects of age and alcohol exposure during early life on pyramidal cell numbers in the CA1-CA3 region of the rat hippocampus

We have previously shown that exposing rats to a relatively high dose of ethanol during early postnatal life can result in an alteration in spatial learning ability. The hippocampal formation is known to be involved in the control of this ability. The purpose of the present study was to determine whether exposure of rats to ethanol during early postnatal life had either immediate or delayed effects on the numbers of pyramidal cells in the CA1-CA3 subregion of the hippocampus. Wistar rats were exposed to a relatively high daily dose of ethanol at postnatal day 10-15 by placing them for 3 h/day in a chamber containing ethanol vapor. Groups of ethanol-treated (ET), separation control (SC), and mother-reared control (MRC) rats were anesthetized and killed at 16 and 30 days of age by perfusion with phosphate-buffered 2.5% glutaraldehyde. The Cavalieri principle was used to determine the volumes of the CA1 and CA2+CA3 regions. The physical disector method was used to estimate the numerical density of neurons in each of the subdivisions. The total number of pyramidal cells was calculated by multiplying the appropriate estimates of the numerical density by the volume. There were significant age-related reductions in the total numbers of pyramidal cells at 16-30 days of age irrespective of the groups examined. Ethanol treated rats were found to have slightly but significantly fewer pyramidal cell neurons than either the MRC or SC groups. These observations indicate that pyramidal cells in the hippocampus may be vulnerable to a relatively high dose of ethanol exposure during this short period of early postnatal life. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Indirect Emissions from Biofuels: How Important?

A global biofuels program will lead to intense pressures on land supply and can increase greenhouse gas emissions from land-use changes. Using linked economic and terrestrial biogeochemistry models, we examined direct and indirect effects of possible land-use changes from an expanded global cellulosic bioenergy program on greenhouse gas emissions over the 21st century. Our model predicts that indirect land use will be responsible for substantially more carbon loss ( up to twice as much) than direct land use; however, because of predicted increases in fertilizer use, nitrous oxide emissions will be more important than carbon losses themselves in terms of warming potential. A global greenhouse gas emissions policy that protects forests and encourages best practices for nitrogen fertilizer use can dramatically reduce emissions associated with biofuels production.

Functional and Evolutionary Insights from the Genomes of Three Parasitoid Nasonia Species

We report here genome sequences and comparative analyses of three closely related parasitoid wasps: Nasonia vitripennis, N. giraulti, and N. longicornis. Parasitoids are important regulators of arthropod populations, including major agricultural pests and disease vectors, and Nasonia is an emerging genetic model, particularly for evolutionary and developmental genetics. Key findings include the identification of a functional DNA methylation tool kit; hymenopteran-specific genes including diverse venoms; lateral gene transfers among Pox viruses, Wolbachia, and Nasonia; and the rapid evolution of genes involved in nuclear-mitochondrial interactions that are implicated in speciation. Newly developed genome resources advance Nasonia for genetic research, accelerate mapping and cloning of quantitative trait loci, and will ultimately provide tools and knowledge for further increasing the utility of parasitoids as pest insect-control agents.

Cited2 is required both for heart morphogenesis and establishment of the left-right axis in mouse development

Establishment of the left-right axis is a fundamental process of vertebrate embryogenesis. Failure to develop left-right asymmetry leads to incorrect positioning and morphogenesis of numerous internal organs, and is proposed to underlie the etiology of several common cardiac malformations. The transcriptional modulator Cited2 is essential for embryonic development: Cited2-null embryos die during gestation with profound developmental abnormalities, including cardiac malformations, exencephaly and adrenal agenesis. Cited2 is also required for normal establishment of the left-right axis; we demonstrate that abnormal heart looping and right atrial and pulmonary isomerism are consistent features of the left-right-patterning defect. We show by gene expression analysis that Cited2 acts upstream of Nodal, Lefty2 and Pitx2 in the lateral mesoderm, and of Lefty1 in the presumptive floor plate. Although abnormal left-right patterning has a major impact on the cardiac phenotype in Cited2-null embryos, laterality defects are only observed in a proportion of these embryos. We have therefore used a combination of high-resolution imaging and three-dimensional (3D) modeling to systematically document the full spectrum of Cited2-associated cardiac defects. Previous studies have focused on the role of Cited2 in cardiac neural crest cell development, as Cited2 can bind the transcription factor Tfap2, and thus affect the expression of Erbb3 in neural crest cells. However, we have identified Cited2-associated cardiac defects that cannot be explained by laterality or neural crest abnormalities. In particular, muscular ventricular septal defects and reduced cell density in the atrioventricular (AV) endocardial cushions are evident in Cited2-null embryos. As we found that Cited2 expression tightly correlated with these sites, we believe that Cited2 plays a direct role in development of the AV canal and cardiac septa. We therefore propose that, in addition to the previously described reduction of cardiac neural crest cells, two other distinct mechanisms contribute to the spectrum of complex cardiac defects in Cited2-null mice; disruption of normal left-right patterning and direct loss of Cited2 expression in cardiac tissues.

Mathematically gifted male adolescents activate a unique brain network during mental rotation

Mental rotation involves the creation and manipulation of internal images, with the later being particularly useful cognitive capacities when applied to high-level mathematical thinking and reasoning. Many neuroimaging studies have demonstrated mental rotation to be mediated primarily by the parietal lobes, particularly on the right side. Here, we use fMRI to show for the first time that when performing 3-dimensional mental rotations, mathematically gifted male adolescents engage a qualitatively different brain network than those of average math ability, one that involves bilateral activation of the parietal lobes and frontal cortex, along with heightened activation of the anterior cingulate. Reliance on the processing characteristics of this uniquely bilateral system and the interplay of these anterior/posterior regions may be contributors to their mathematical precocity.

Interferon-gamma is required for killing keratinocytes in vitro and in vivo

Epithelial malignancies are common in immunosuppressed individuals and the general population. However the mechanisms by which the adaptive immune system can eliminate immunogenic epithelial cells remain undefined. The aim of this project was to determine the effector molecules required for induction of apoptosis in murine epidermal keratinocytes (MEKs) in vitro and in vivo. HPV16E7-specific CTL lines and T cell receptor transgenic (E7TCRtg) effector cells were obtained from wild type (wt)-C57 and syngeneic mice rendered functionally inactive for perforin (Pfp), interferon-g (IFN-g) or FasL. CTLs or E7TCRtg spleen cells were co-cultured with primary MEKs in vitro or transferred into skin graft recipients. Inhibition of colony formation and skin graft rejection were used as indicators of T cell:KC interaction. Wt E7-specific CTLs and CTLs deficient in perforin, FasL or IFN-g produced mean reductions in colony formation of 67% (62.4–71.3%), 72% (71.1–72%), 76% (73–78%) and 21.5% (14– 34%) respectively. Wt, perforin deficient or FasL deficient CTLs all induced rejection of skin grafts (wt: 6/12; Pfp: 9/15; FasL: 3/13 survival). Transfer and immunisation of wt E7TCRtg spleen cells induces rejection of 50% of grafts (4/8 survival). In contrast, perforin or IFN-g deficient E7TCRtg failed to induce graft rejection (5/6; 4/4 survival). FasL deficient E7TCRtg induced nonspecific rejection of grafts (E7- 2/6 survival; C57- 4/7 survival). Therefore IFN-g production by CTL is necessary and sufficient in vitro and in vivo to kill epithelial cells which express a nonself antigen. Assessment of immunotherapies directed against epithelial tissues may be more effectively achieved by assaying the amount of IFN-g production by CD8 T cells, and the number and affinity of those cells, in conjunction with quantitation of perforin mediated effects in short term assays.

Quality of diabetes care and coronary heart disease absolute risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus in Australian general practice

Objective: To examine the quality of diabetes care and prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Australian general practice patients with type 2 diabetes and to investigate its relationship with coronary heart disease absolute risk (CHDAR). Methods: A total of 3286 patient records were extracted from registers of patients with type 2 diabetes held by 16 divisions of general practice (250 practices) across Australia for the year 2002. CHDAR was estimated using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study algorithm with higher CHDAR set at a 10 year risk of >15%. Multivariate multilevel logistic regression investigated the association between CHDAR and diabetes care. Results: 47.9% of diabetic patient records had glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) >7%, 87.6% had total cholesterol >= 4.0 mmol/l, and 73.8% had blood pressure (BP) >= 130/85 mm Hg. 57.6% of patients were at a higher CHDAR, 76.8% of whom were not on lipid modifying medication and 66.2% were not on antihypertensive medication. After adjusting for clustering at the general practice level and age, lipid modifying medication was negatively related to CHDAR (odds ratio (OR) 0.84) and total cholesterol. Antihypertensive medication was positively related to systolic BP but negatively related to CHDAR (OR 0.88). Referral to ophthalmologists/optometrists and attendance at other health professionals were not related to CHDAR. Conclusions: At the time of the study the diabetes and CVD preventive care in Australian general practice was suboptimal, even after a number of national initiatives. The Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) guidelines need to be modified to improve CVD preventive care in patients with type 2 diabetes.

A comparison of methods to identify open-lung PEEP

Purpose: Many methods exist in the literature for identifying PEEP to set in ARDS patients following a lung recruitment maneuver (RM). We compared ten published parameters for setting PEEP following a RM. Methods: Lung injury was induced by bilateral lung lavage in 14 female Dorset sheep, yielding a PaO(2) 100-150 mmHg at F(I)O(2) 1.0 and PEEP 5 cmH(2)O. A quasi-static P-V curve was then performed using the supersyringe method; PEEP was set to 20 cmH(2)O and a RM performed with pressure control ventilation (inspiratory pressure set to 40-50 cmH(2)O), until PaO(2) + PaCO(2) > 400 mmHg. Following the RM, a decremental PEEP trial was performed. The PEEP was decreased in 1 cmH(2)O steps every 5 min until 15 cmH(2)O was reached. Parameters measured during the decremental PEEP trial were compared with parameters obtained from the P-V curve. Results: For setting PEEP, maximum dynamic tidal respiratory compliance, maximum PaO(2), maximum PaO(2) + PaCO(2), and minimum shunt calculated during the decremental PEEP trial, and the lower Pflex and point of maximal compliance increase on the inflation limb of the P-V curve (Pmci,i) were statistically indistinguishable. The PEEP value obtained using the deflation upper Pflex and the point of maximal compliance decrease on the deflation limb were significantly higher, and the true inflection point on the inflation limb and minimum PaCO(2) were significantly lower than the other variables. Conclusion: In this animal model of ARDS, dynamic tidal respiratory compliance, maximum PaO(2), maximum PaO(2) + PaCO(2), minimum shunt, inflation lower Pflex and Pmci,i yield similar values for PEEP following a recruitment maneuver.