Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Simulation of the micro-physics of rocks using LSMearth

The particle-based Lattice Solid Model (LSM) was developed to provide a basis to study the physics of rocks and the nonlinear dynamics of earthquakes (MORA and PLACE, 1994; PLACE and MORA, 1999). A new modular and flexible LSM approach has been developed that allows different microphysics to be easily included in or removed from the model. The approach provides a virtual laboratory where numerical experiments can easily be set up and all measurable quantities visualised. The proposed approach provides a means to simulate complex phenomena such as fracturing or localisation processes, and enables the effect of different micro-physics on macroscopic behaviour to be studied. The initial 2-D model is extended to allow three-dimensional simulations to be performed and particles of different sizes to be specified. Numerical bi-axial compression experiments under different confining pressure are used to calibrate the model. By tuning the different microscopic parameters (such as coefficient of friction, microscopic strength and distribution of grain sizes), the macroscopic strength of the material and can be adjusted to be in agreement with laboratory experiments, and the orientation of fractures is consistent with the theoretical value predicted based on Mohr-Coulomb diagram. Simulations indicate that 3-D numerical models have different macroscopic properties than in 2-D and, hence, the model must be recalibrated for 3-D simulations. These numerical experiments illustrate that the new approach is capable of simulating typical rock fracture behaviour. The new model provides a basis to investigate nucleation, rupture and slip pulse propagation in complex fault zones without the previous model limitations of a regular low-level surface geometry and being restricted to two-dimensions.

Hemodynamic and ventilatory effects of manual respiratory physiotherapy techniques of chest clapping, vibration, and shaking in an animal model

Chest clapping, vibration, and shaking were studied in 10 physiotherapists who applied these techniques on an anesthetized animal model. Hemodynamic variables (such as heart rate, blood pressure, pulmonary artery pressure, and right atrial pressure) were measured during the application of these techniques to verify claims of adverse events. In addition, expired tidal volume and peak expiratory flow rate were measured to ascertain effects of these techniques. Physiotherapists in this study applied chest clapping at a rate of 6.2 +/- 0.9 Hz, vibration at 10.5 +/- 2.3 Hz, and shaking at 6.2 +/- 2.3 Hz. With the use of these rates, esophageal pressure swings of 8.8 +/- 5.0, 0.7 +/- 0.3, and 1.4 +/- 0.7 mmHg resulted from clapping, vibration, and shaking respectively. Variability in rates and forces generated by these techniques was 80% of variance in shaking force (P = 0.003). Application of these techniques by physiotherapists was found to have no significant effects on hemodynamic and most ventilatory variables in this study. From this study, we conclude that chest clapping, vibration, and shaking 1) can be consistently performed by physiotherapists; 2) are significantly related to physiotherapists' characteristics, particularly clinical experience; and 3) caused no significant hemodynamic effects.

Heat transfer and flow behind a step in high enthalpy superorbital flow

Heat transfer levels have been investigated behind a rearward-facing step in a superorbital expansion tube. The heat transfer was measured along a flat plate and behind 2 and 3mm steps with the same length to step height ratio. Results were obtained with air as the test gas at speeds of 6.76kms(-1) and 9-60kms(-1) corresponding to stagnation enthalpies of 26MJ/kg and 48MJ/kg respectively. A laminar boundary layer was established on the flat plate and measured heat transfer levels were consistent with classical empirical correlations. In the case of flow behind a step, the measurements showed a gradual rise in heat transfer from the rear of the step to a plateau several step heights downstream for both flow conditions. Reattachment distance was estimated to be approximately 1.6 step heights downstream of the 2mm step at the low enthalpy condition through the use of flow visualisation.

Large amplitude vibration of thermo-electro-mechanically stressed FGM laminated plates

This paper presents a large amplitude vibration analysis of pre-stressed functionally graded material (FGM) laminated plates that are composed of a shear deformable functionally graded layer and two surface-mounted piezoelectric actuator layers. Nonlinear governing equations of motion are derived within the context of Reddy's higher-order shear deformation plate theory to account for transverse shear strain and rotary inertia. Due to the bending and stretching coupling effect, a nonlinear static problem is solved first to determine the initial stress state and pre-vibration deformations of the plate that is subjected to uniform temperature change, in-plane forces and applied actuator voltage. By adding an incremental dynamic state to the pre-vibration state, the differential equations that govern the nonlinear vibration behavior of pre-stressed FGM laminated plates are derived. A semi-analytical method that is based on one-dimensional differential quadrature and Galerkin technique is proposed to predict the large amplitude vibration behavior of the laminated rectangular plates with two opposite clamped edges. Linear vibration frequencies and nonlinear normalized frequencies are presented in both tabular and graphical forms, showing that the normalized frequency of the FGM laminated plate is very sensitive to vibration amplitude, out-of-plane boundary support, temperature change, in-plane compression and the side-to-thickness ratio. The CSCF and CFCF plates even change the inherent hard-spring characteristic to soft-spring behavior at large vibration amplitudes. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SPAnDX: a process-based population dynamics model to explore management and climate change impacts on an invasive alien plant, Acacia nilotica

This paper describes a process-based metapopulation dynamics and phenology model of prickly acacia, Acacia nilotica, an invasive alien species in Australia. The model, SPAnDX, describes the interactions between riparian and upland sub-populations of A. nilotica within livestock paddocks, including the effects of extrinsic factors such as temperature, soil moisture availability and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide. The model includes the effects of management events such as changing the livestock species or stocking rate, applying fire, and herbicide application. The predicted population behaviour of A. nilotica was sensitive to climate. Using 35 years daily weather datasets for five representative sites spanning the range of conditions that A. nilotica is found in Australia, the model predicted biomass levels that closely accord with expected values at each site. SPAnDX can be used as a decision-support tool in integrated weed management, and to explore the sensitivity of cultural management practices to climate change throughout the range of A. nilotica. The cohort-based DYMEX modelling package used to build and run SPAnDX provided several advantages over more traditional population modelling approaches (e.g. an appropriate specific formalism (discrete time, cohort-based, process-oriented), user-friendly graphical environment, extensible library of reusable components, and useful and flexible input/output support framework). (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

O grupo como estratégia terapêutica nos Centros de Atenção Psicossocial Álcool e Drogas do Espírito Santo

Este estudo teve por objetivo descrever a assistência grupal prestada pelos profissionais de nível superior nos Centros de Atenção Psicossocial – Álcool e Drogas (CAPSad) do Estado do Espírito Santo. Para tanto, foi realizado uma pesquisa exploratório-descritiva, do tipo qualitativo, que adotou, como técnica de coleta de dados, a entrevista semiestruturada. Os cenários da pesquisa foram os três CAPSad do Estado do Espírito Santo. Foram entrevistados 17 profissionais de nível superior de diversas categorias. As entrevistas foram transcritas e todo o material qualitativo foi submetido à análise de conteúdo, que resultou em quatro categorias de análise: concepções de grupo; metodologias adotadas nos grupos; dificuldades encontradas nos grupos; e formação e preparação profissional para o trabalho com grupos. Os resultados desta pesquisa mostram que os grupos são estratégias muito utilizadas nos CAPSads. Recebem diferentes denominações, dependendo de sua finalidade e contexto, e são coordenados por profissionais de várias áreas. O funcionamento dos grupos se dá por meio de metodologias diversas, a depender do tipo de grupo, dos recursos disponíveis e do referencial teórico adotado pelo profissional que coordena. As principais dificuldades encontradas nos grupos estiveram associadas aos usuários, ao profissional, à falta de recursos e ao processo grupal. Em relação à formação e preparação do profissional, constatou que a experiência do trabalho grupal com os usuários de substâncias psicoativas coloca os profissionais diante de inúmeros desafios que, muitas vezes, esses profissionais não estão preparados para enfrentar e isso influencia fortemente sua prática. Diante disso, conclui que os grupos constituem importantes estratégias no atendimento aos usuários de substâncias psicoativas, sendo práticas ainda pouco sistematizadas nesses contextos.

Estudo da resistência não drenada de solo de baixa consistência por meio de ensaios de campo e laboratório

A variabilidade natural dos solos torna complexo o conhecimento de suas propriedades na elaboração de projetos geotécnicos, sendo a determinação da resistência ao cisalhamento não drenada um parâmetro importante nas análises de estabilidade de solos moles. Os ensaios de laboratório de cone e palheta, não convencionais, os ensaios de campo de palheta e piezocone e os ensaios de compressão simples e triaxial não adensado e não drenado foram utilizados para mensurar a resistência não drenada de uma camada de argila marinha mole localizada na planície costeira central brasileira. Os ensaios de laboratório foram realizados em amostras indeformadas coletadas com amostradores de pistão estacionário em vertical próxima à realização dos ensaios de campo. O sítio foi investigado preliminarmente por sondagens de simples reconhecimento, sendo apresentado o perfil estratigráfico por meio de modelagem computacional. Foram também realizados ensaios para caracterização física (análise granulométrica, teor de umidade, limites de liquidez e plasticidade, densidade real dos grãos) e mineralógica (difração de raios X), e ensaios de adensamento para obtenção do histórico de tensões e classificação de qualidade das amostras indeformadas. Os valores de resistência não drenada obtidos pelos ensaios de laboratório foram comparados ao perfil contínuo de resistência determinado empiricamente pelo ensaio de piezocone, com fator de cone Nkt calibrado pelo ensaio de palheta de campo, apresentando boa concordância, com a variabilidade natural do solo influenciando de forma preponderante a qualidade das amostras na variação entre os resultados. Os valores de resistência obtidos pelos ensaios de laboratório de cone e palheta foram comparados entre si, apresentando boa compatibilidade. Ambos, quando comparados ao ensaio de palheta de campo, não apresentaram boa concordância. Os resultados de resistência obtidos pelos ensaios de compressão simples e triaxial apresentaram boa compatibilidade com os resultados do ensaio de laboratório de cone, o que não ocorreu com os resultados do ensaio de laboratório de palheta. Na comparação entre a resistência normalizada pela tensão de sobreadensamento obtida pelos diversos métodos e algumas correlações empíricas da literatura internacional, foi observado para as amostras de solo com índice de plasticidade superior a 60% boa concordância com as correlações de Mesri (1975) e Jamiolkowski et al (1985). Os ensaios não convencionais apresentaram boa confiabilidade, que aliado a simplicidade e agilidade de execução, justificam a difusão destes na prática da investigação geotécnica brasileira como método alternativo para complementar e dar suporte às estimativas de resistência não drenada de solos moles.

Determinação do momento crítico de flambagem lateral com distorção em vigas mistas contínuas de aço e concreto com perfis de alma senoidal

As vigas mistas de aço e concreto estão sendo largamente utilizadas em construções de edifícios e pontes. Ao se combinar o aço com o concreto obtêm-se estruturas mais econômicas, uma vez que se tira proveito das melhores características de cada material. Nas regiões de momento negativo de uma viga mista contínua, a mesa inferior e parte da alma estão comprimidas, se a alma do perfil não tiver rigidez suficiente para evitar a flexão lateral, ela distorcerá gerando um deslocamento lateral e um giro na mesa comprimida, caracterizando um modo de flambagem denominado flambagem lateral com distorção (FLD). O procedimento de verificação à FLD da EN 1994-1-1:2004 originou o método de cálculo da ABNT NBR 8800:2008, entretanto a EN 1994-1-1:2004 não fornece expressão para o cálculo do momento crítico elástico, enquanto a ABNT NBR 8800:2008 prescreve uma formulação proposta por Roik, Hanswille e Kina (1990) desenvolvida para vigas mistas com perfis de alma plana. Embora as normas prescrevam um método de verificação à FLD para vigas mistas com perfis de alma plana, poucos estudos têm sido feitos sobre esse estado-limite. Além disso, tanto a ABNT NBR 8800:2008 quanto as normas internacionais não abordam perfis de alma senoidal. Neste trabalho, foram implementadas análises de flambagem elástica, com auxílio do software ANSYS 14.0 (2011), em modelos de elementos finitos que retratem o comportamento à FLD de vigas mistas de aço e concreto com perfis de alma plana e senoidal. Os modelos numéricos foram constituídos pelo perfil de aço, por uma mola rotacional que restringe parcialmente o giro da mesa superior e uma restrição ao deslocamento lateral, ao longo de todo o comprimento da viga. Os resultados numéricos são comparados com os obtidos pelas formulações de Roik, Hanswille e Kina (1990) e de Hanswille (2002), adaptadas para levar em consideração a corrugação da alma do perfil de aço. Para avaliação das formulações supracitadas e da consistência da modelagem numérica adotada, o momento crítico elástico foi determinado para vigas mistas com perfis de aço de alma plana. Como resultado, um método para o cálculo do momento crítico elástico de vigas mistas de alma senoidal é proposto.

Tillering and forage accumulation in Marandu grass under different grazing intensities

Studies of plant responses to defoliation are important to develop pasture management strategies. The objective of this study was to evaluate the population density of basal, aerial and reproductive tillers, tiller appearance and mortality rates, forage accumulation and sward structure in Marandu grass pastures under different grazing intensities. The experimental period was from January to June 2006, divided in three seasons: summer, autumn and winter. The pastures were continuously grazed using variable stocking rates. The grazing intensities corresponded to 15, 30 and 45 cm of sward height. The experiment was arranged in a complete randomized block design with three treatments and two replicates. The sward heights were measured twice a week. The response variables were: forage accumulation, forage mass and its morphological components; and population densities of basal (TPDb), aerial (TPDa) and reproductive (TPDr) tillers. The highest TPDb (P > 0.05) was recorded for the shortest sward pasture, and the highest TPDr (P<0.05) for the tallest sward pasture. Swards showed a tiller size/density compensation mechanism and, consequently, the forage accumulation was similar (P > 0.05) among the grazing intensities. Pasture with a sward height of 35 cm had 94% of sun light interception. The highest variations in forage accumulation and sward structure were more influenced by seasonal differences than by grazing intensities. Pastures of Marandu grass showed large flexibility in grazing management, which allowed it to be maintained at sward heights between 15 and 35 cm.

Assessment of 3D scanners for modeling Pectus Carinatum corrective bar

Pectus Carinatum (PC) is a chest deformity consisting on the anterior protrusion of the sternum and adjacent costal cartilages. Non-operative corrections, such as the orthotic compression brace, require previous information of the patient chest surface, to improve the overall brace fit. This paper focuses on the validation of the Kinect scanner for the modelling of an orthotic compression brace for the correction of Pectus Carinatum. To this extent, a phantom chest wall surface was acquired using two scanner systems – Kinect and Polhemus FastSCAN – and compared through CT. The results show a RMS error of 3.25mm between the CT data and the surface mesh from the Kinect sensor and 1.5mm from the FastSCAN sensor

Penetration resistance in a latosol under different moisture and penetration speeds

The soil penetration resistance has been used to represent the compaction situation and several authors have attempted to relate the cone index (CI) with the bulk density. The importance of using the CI as source of information for decisions in agricultural activities, livestock and forestry manner, has become increasingly larger, which requires more knowledge about the penetrometers and penetrographs behavior. This study aimed to verify, in controlled laboratory conditions, the influence of soil water content and cone penetration rate to obtain the cone index, when density variation occurs. The soil was compacted by compression through a universal press cylinder which was specially designed to produce the test specimens. Bulk densities were determined from samples taken from the test specimens and their moisture content. The CI values obtained were between 0.258 and 4.776 MPa, measured in 4 moistures and 7 soil densities with 3 penetration speeds. It was concluded that the determination of IC is strongly influenced by the soil moisture but the penetration speed variation, used in this study, was not sufficient to influence the IC determination. However, the decrease in soil water content may increase the sensitiveness to detect a variation in bulk density by the use of cone index.

Assessment of 3D scanners for modeling pectus carinatum corrective bar

Pectus Carinatum (PC) is a chest deformity consisting on the anterior protrusion of the sternum and adjacent costal cartilages. Non-operative corrections, such as the orthotic compression brace, require previous information of the patient chest surface, to improve the overall brace fit. This paper focuses on the validation of the Kinect scanner for the modelling of an orthotic compression brace for the correction of Pectus Carinatum. To this extent, a phantom chest wall surface was acquired using two scanner systems – Kinect and Polhemus FastSCAN – and compared through CT. The results show a RMS error of 3.25mm between the CT data and the surface mesh from the Kinect sensor and 1.5mm from the FastSCAN sensor.

Environmental performance of aquaculture in Rondônia state, Brazil

The objective of this study was to analyze the environmental performance of aquaculture in the city of Colorado do Oeste, Rondônia State, Brazil. Fifteen fish farmers were interviewed. For data collection, structured interviews were carried out, using a questionnaire based on information supplied by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The questionnaire considered 12 items, organized into three main topics: a) social and legal standards b) environmental standards c) standards of food safety and hygiene. The questionnaire considered 12 items, organized into three main topics: a) social and legal standards b) environmental standards c) standards of food safety and hygiene. Aquaculture in the city of Colorado do Oeste, Rondônia presents two fish production systems: extensive and semi-intensive. In the semi-intensive system, stocking rate was one fish per m3, on average; tambaqui (Colossoma macropomum), tilapias (Oreochromis spp.), pirarucu (Arapaima gigas) and pintado (Pseudoplatystoma spp.) were the species farmed at the largest number. The rate of water renewal was due to the greater availability of natural food in this system. Water renewal was constant in the ponds (1,500 liters per minute). In the semi-intensive system using dug ponds, alevins were stocked and fed during the entire rearing time with natural and exogenous food. The extensive system relied on the natural production of the pond, with stocking density limited by the production of natural food. The little renewal of water made the cultivation tank itself acted as a decantation lake, with the occurrence of oxidation and sedimentation of residual organic matter, consisting of feces, debris and organic fertilizer. Production of reduced effluent volume took place in the extensive system, compared to the cultivation area. In addition, there was high water turbidity, caused by high concentration of planktonic organisms, and low concentrations of dissolved oxygen in the water. Data showed that nine estates of the interviewed fish farmers had critical environmental performance (less than 30.0%). Six estates of fish farmers had bad environmental performance (between 30.0 and 50.0%) (Coefficient of sustentainability = green square x 100 ÷ Total Questions less the yellow squares)