Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium

Understanding natural climate variability and its driving factors is crucial to assessing future climate change. Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as well as comparing these with paleoclimate model simulations is key to gaining insights into the relative roles of internal versus forced variability. A review of the state of modelling of the climate of the last millennium prior to the CMIP5–PMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5–Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) coordinated effort is presented and compared to the available temperature reconstructions. Simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on reproducing the major temperature changes and suggest an overall linear response to external forcing on multidecadal or longer timescales. Internal variability is found to have an important influence at hemispheric and global scales. The spatial distribution of simulated temperature changes during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age disagrees with that found in the reconstructions. Thus, either internal variability is a possible major player in shaping temperature changes through the millennium or the model simulations have problems realistically representing the response pattern to external forcing. A last millennium transient climate response (LMTCR) is defined to provide a quantitative framework for analysing the consistency between simulated and reconstructed climate. Beyond an overall agreement between simulated and reconstructed LMTCR ranges, this analysis is able to single out specific discrepancies between some reconstructions and the ensemble of simulations. The disagreement is found in the cases where the reconstructions show reduced covariability with external forcings or when they present high rates of temperature change.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

The response of atmospheric nitrous oxide to climate variations during the last glacial period

Detailed insight into natural variations of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) in response to changes in the Earth's climate system is provided by new measurements along the ice core of the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP). The presented record reaches from the early Holocene back into the previous interglacial with a mean time resolution of about 75 years. Between 11 and 120 kyr BP, atmospheric N2O concentrations react substantially to the last glacial-interglacial transition (Termination 1) and millennial time scale climate variations of the last glacial period. For long-lasting Dansgaard/Oeschger (DO) events, the N2O increase precedes Greenland temperature change by several hundred years with an increase rate of about 0.8-1.3 ppbv/century, which accelerates to about 3.8-10.7 ppbv/century at the time of the rapid warming in Greenland. Within each bundle of DO events, the new record further reveals particularly low N2O concentrations at the approximate time of Heinrich events. This suggests that the response of marine and/or terrestrial N2O emissions on a global scale are different for stadials with and without Heinrich events.

ELUCIDATING FUNCTIONAL ROLES FOR MYOGENIN IN ADULT SKELETAL MUSCLE METABOLISM, EXERCISE CAPACITY, AND REGENERATION

The four basic helix-loop-helix myogenic transcription factors, myogenin, Myf5, MRF4, and MyoD are critical for embryonic skeletal muscle development. Myogenin is necessary for the terminal differentiation of myoblasts into myofibers during embryogenesis, but little is known about the roles played by myogenin in adult skeletal muscle function and metabolism. Furthermore, while metabolism is a well-studied physiological process, how it is regulated at the transcriptional level remains poorly understood. In this study, my aim was to determine the function of myogenin in adult skeletal muscle metabolism, exercise capacity, and regeneration. To investigate this, I utilized a mouse strain harboring the Myogflox allele and a Cre recombinase transgene, enabling the efficient deletion of myogenin in the adult mouse. Myogflox/flox mice were stressed physically through involuntary treadmill running and by breeding them with a strain harboring the Duchenne’s muscular dystrophy (DMDmdx) allele. Surprisingly, Myog-deleted animals exhibited an enhanced capacity for exercise, running farther and faster than their wild-type counterparts. Increased lactate production and utilization of glucose as a fuel source indicated that Myog-deleted animals exhibited an increased glycolytic flux. Hypoglycemic Myog-deleted mice no longer possessed the ability to outrun their wild-type counterparts, implying the ability of these animals to further deplete their glucose reserves confers their enhanced exercise capacity. Moreover, Myog-deleted mice exhibited an enhanced response to long-term exercise training. The mice developed a greater proportion of type 1 oxidative muscle fibers, and displayed increased levels of succinate dehydrogenase activity, indicative of increased oxidative metabolism. Mdx:Myog-deleted mice exhibited a similar phenotype, outperforming their mdx counterparts, although lagging behind wild-type animals. The morphology of muscle tissue from mdx:Myog-deleted mice appears to mimic that of mdx animals, indicating that myogenin is dispensable for adult skeletal muscle regeneration. Through global gene expression profiling and quantitative (q)RT-PCR, I identified a unique set of putative myogenin-dependent genes involved in regulating metabolic processes. These data suggest myogenin’s functions during adulthood are distinctly different than those during embryogenesis, and myogenin acts as a high-level transcription factor regulating metabolic activity in adult skeletal muscle.

Activation of heat shock and antioxidant responses by the natural product celastrol: transcriptional signatures of a thiol-targeted molecule.

Stress response pathways allow cells to sense and respond to environmental changes and adverse pathophysiological states. Pharmacological modulation of cellular stress pathways has implications in the treatment of human diseases, including neurodegenerative disorders, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. The quinone methide triterpene celastrol, derived from a traditional Chinese medicinal herb, has numerous pharmacological properties, and it is a potent activator of the mammalian heat shock transcription factor HSF1. However, its mode of action and spectrum of cellular targets are poorly understood. We show here that celastrol activates Hsf1 in Saccharomyces cerevisiae at a similar effective concentration seen in mammalian cells. Transcriptional profiling revealed that celastrol treatment induces a battery of oxidant defense genes in addition to heat shock genes. Celastrol activated the yeast Yap1 oxidant defense transcription factor via the carboxy-terminal redox center that responds to electrophilic compounds. Antioxidant response genes were likewise induced in mammalian cells, demonstrating that the activation of two major cell stress pathways by celastrol is conserved. We report that celastrol's biological effects, including inhibition of glucocorticoid receptor activity, can be blocked by the addition of excess free thiol, suggesting a chemical mechanism for biological activity based on modification of key reactive thiols by this natural product.

Transcriptional regulation of the Borrelia burgdorferi antigenically variable VlsE surface protein.

The Lyme disease agent Borrelia burgdorferi can persistently infect humans and other animals despite host active immune responses. This is facilitated, in part, by the vls locus, a complex system consisting of the vlsE expression site and an adjacent set of 11 to 15 silent vls cassettes. Segments of nonexpressed cassettes recombine with the vlsE region during infection of mammalian hosts, resulting in combinatorial antigenic variation of the VlsE outer surface protein. We now demonstrate that synthesis of VlsE is regulated during the natural mammal-tick infectious cycle, being activated in mammals but repressed during tick colonization. Examination of cultured B. burgdorferi cells indicated that the spirochete controls vlsE transcription levels in response to environmental cues. Analysis of PvlsE::gfp fusions in B. burgdorferi indicated that VlsE production is controlled at the level of transcriptional initiation, and regions of 5' DNA involved in the regulation were identified. Electrophoretic mobility shift assays detected qualitative and quantitative changes in patterns of protein-DNA complexes formed between the vlsE promoter and cytoplasmic proteins, suggesting the involvement of DNA-binding proteins in the regulation of vlsE, with at least one protein acting as a transcriptional activator.

Transcriptional regulation of the invariant chain associated with MHC class II molecules

The invariant chain associated with the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class II molecules is a non-polymorphic glycoprotein implicated in antigen processing and class II molecule intracellular transport. Class II molecules and invariant chain (In) are expressed primarily by B lymphocytes and antigen-presenting cells such as macrophages and can be induced by interferon gamma (IFN-$\gamma$) in a variety of cell types such as endothelial cells, fibroblasts, and astrocytes. In this study the cis-acting sequences involved in the constitutive, tissue-specific, and IFN-$\gamma$ induced expression of the human In gene were investigated and nuclear proteins which specifically bound these sequences were identified.^ To define promoter sequences involved in the regulation of the human In gene, 790 bp 5$\sp\prime$ to the initiation of transcription were subcloned upstream of the gene encoding chloramphenicol acetyl transferase (CAT). Transfection of this construct into In expressing and non-expressing cell lines demonstrated that this 790 bp In promoter sequence conferred tissue specificity to the CAT gene. Deletion mutants were created in the promoter to identify sequences important for transcription. Three regulatory regions were identified $-$396 to $-$241, $-$241 to $-$216, and $-$216 to $-$165 bp 5$\sp\prime$ to the cap site. Transfection into a human glioblastoma cell line, U-373 MG, and treatment with IFN-$\gamma$, demonstrated that this 5$\sp\prime$ region is responsive to IFN-$\gamma$. An IFN-$\gamma$ response element was sublocalized to the region $-$120 to $-$61 bp. This region contains homology to the interferon-stimulated response element (ISRE) identified in other IFN responsive genes. IFN-$\gamma$ induces a sequence-specific DNA binding factor which binds to an oligonucleotide corresponding to $-$107 to $-$79 bp of the In promoter. This factor also binds to an oligonucleotide corresponding to $-$91 to $-$62 of the interferon-$\beta$ gene promoter, suggesting this factor may be member of the IRF-1/ISGF2, IRF-2, ICSBP family of ISRE binding proteins. A transcriptional enhancer was identified in the first intron of the In gene. This element, located in a 2.6 kb BamHI/PstI fragment, enhances the IFN-$\gamma$ response of the promoter in U-373 MG. The majority of the In enhancer activity was sublocalized to a 550 bp region $\sim$1.6 kb downstream of the In transcriptional start site. ^

Identification of two vitamin D response elements in the rat osteopontin gene

Studies to elucidate the function of vitamin D have demonstrated an important role in regulating bone-related cells, including osteoblasts and osteoclasts. A seemingly paradoxical observation is that 1,25(OH)$\sb2$D$\sb3$, the active metabolite of vitamin D, stimulates bone resorption, yet regulates transcription of genes expressed by osteoblasts. One mechanism that could explain these actions is the upregulation of transcription of osteoblast-specific genes. These gene products could then act as effectors to influence osteoclastic activity. We hypothesized that molecular signals could be deposited directly into the mineralized matrix in the form of noncollagenous proteins, such as osteopontin (OPN). The structure, biosynthesis and localization of OPN suggest that it could function to mediate the molecular "cross talk" between osteoblasts and osteoclasts in response to 1,25(OH)$\sb2$D$\sb3$. To begin to address this hypothesis, elucidation of the molecular mechanisms of action involved in the transactivation of OPN by 1,25(OH)$\sb2$D$\sb3$ is essential.^ In the present study, the rat opn gene was isolated and characterized. Functional analysis by transient transfection of the 5$\sp\prime$ flanking sequences of the rat opn gene fused to the luciferase gene demonstrated that OPN is transcriptionally upregulated by 1,25(OH)$\sb2$D$\sb3$, mediated through two vitamin D response elements (VDRE). Both proximal and distal VDREs are structurally similar (two imperfect direct repeats separated by a 3 nucleotide spacer) and bind protein complexes that include the VDR and retinoid-X receptor (RXR). Isolated VDRE expression constructs produce functional activity of equivalent magnitude of responsiveness to 1,25(OH)$\sb2$D$\sb3$. However, expression constructs containing either VDRE and at least 200 bp of 5$\sp\prime$ and 3$\sp\prime$ flanking sequence demonstrated that the distal VDRE produces an amplitude of response significantly higher than the proximal VDRE. We conclude that the transcriptional upregulation of the opn gene by 1,25(OH)$\sb2$D$\sb3$ involves the transactivation of two VDREs, while maximal responsiveness requires interaction of the VDREs with additional cis-elements contained in the 5$\sp\prime$ sequence. ^

Transcriptional regulation of the human Fas (CD95) promoter

The coordination of the apoptotic program necessitates the timely expression of sensor, effector, and mediator molecules. Fas/CD95, a transmembrane receptor which tethers the cell-death machinery, triggers apoptosis to maintain immune homeostasis, tolerance, and surveillance. Dysregulation in Fas-mediated apoptosis, either from disproportionate expression or disruptions in the downstream signaling pathway, manifests in autoimmune disorders and certain malignant progression. ^ In this project, the transcriptional requirements underlying two modulators of Fas expression were investigated. In T-lymphocytes, activation results in potent Fas upregulation followed by an acquisition of sensitivity towards FasL-mediated apoptosis. Human fas promoter cloning and analysis have identified a cis-element critical for inducible Fas expression. EMSA studies using this region demonstrated a constitutive association with the transcription factor Sp1 and inducible NF-κB binding in response to activation. These interactions were mutually exclusive, as the rB/Sp1 element bound with recombinant Sp1 was readily displaced by increasing amounts of NF-κB p50. Thus, Fas upregulation by T-cell activation stimuli is dependent upon NF-κB binding at the fas promoter. ^ The capacity of Sp1 to direct basal Fas expression was examined through mutagenesis of several GC-rich regions within the core fas promoter. Reporter analysis of single or combinatorial mutant GC-box constructs revealed usage of a particular GC-element in moderating over 50% of basal fas transcription. Inducible expression was Sp1-independent, however, since activated Jurkat cells containing fas Sp1-mutant constructs retained equivalent reporter induction. Overall, a dual-level of transcriptional control exists in fas, where constitutive activity is monitored through Sp1 binding, whereas T-cell activation obligates NF κB transactivation. ^ In response to genotoxic damage, p53 modulates Fas levels partly by a transcription-dependent mechanism. Reconstitution of wild-type p53 in the hepatoma cell line Hep3B readily induced Fas transcription. Furthermore, fas promoter analysis identified an undescribed p53 responsive element which, when deleted, ablated p53-mediated reporter activity. Therefore, the pro-apoptotic function mediated by p53 is driven partially through the enhancement of Fas expression. ^ Altogether, events elicting Fas transcription may invoke single or overlapping mechanisms that converge at the level of promoter activity. Agents that enhance or attenuate these pathways may be therapeutically beneficial in modulating the expression and sensitivity towards Fas-dependent apoptosis. ^

The importance of biotic interactions and local adaptation for plant response to environmental changes: field evidence along an elevational gradient

Predicting the response of species to environmental changes is a great and on-going challenge for ecologists, and this requires a more in-depth understanding of the importance of biotic interactions and the population structuration in the landscape. Using a reciprocal transplantation experiment, we tested the response of five species to an elevational gradient. This was combined to a neighbour removal treatment to test the importance of local adaptation and biotic interactions. The trait studied was performance measured as survival and biomass. Species response varied along the elevational gradient, but with no consistent pattern. Performance of species was influenced by environmental conditions occurring locally at each site, as well as by positive or negative effects of the surrounding vegetation. Indeed, we observed a shift from competition for biomass to facilitation for survival as a response to the increase in environmental stress occurring in the different sites. Unlike previous studies pointing out an increase of stress along the elevation gradient, our results supported a stress gradient related to water availability, which was not strictly parallel to the elevational gradient. For three of our species, we observed a greater biomass production for the population coming from the site where the species was dominant (central population) compared to population sampled at the limit of the distribution (marginal population). Nevertheless, we did not observe any pattern of local adaptation that could indicate adaptation of populations to a particular habitat. Altogether, our results highlighted the great ability of plant species to cope with environmental changes, with no local adaptation and great variability in response to local conditions. Our study confirms the importance of taking into account biotic interactions and population structure occurring at local scale in the prediction of communities’ responses to global environmental changes.

Hypertrophy of infected Peyer’s patches arises from global, interferon-receptor, and CD69-independent shutdown of lymphocyte egress

Lymphoid organ hypertrophy is a hallmark of localized infection. During the inflammatory response, massive changes in lymphocyte recirculation and turnover boost lymphoid organ cellularity. Intriguingly, the exact nature of these changes remains undefined to date. Here, we report that hypertrophy of Salmonella-infected Peyer's patches (PPs) ensues from a global "shutdown" of lymphocyte egress, which traps recirculating lymphocytes in PPs. Surprisingly, infection-induced lymphocyte sequestration did not require previously proposed mediators of lymphoid organ shutdown including type I interferon receptor and CD69. In contrast, following T-cell receptor-mediated priming, CD69 was essential to selectively block CD4+ effector T-cell egress. Our findings segregate two distinct lymphocyte sequestration mechanisms, which differentially rely on intrinsic modulation of lymphocyte egress capacity and inflammation-induced changes in the lymphoid organ environment.

Characterization of the potential role for RNA-binding protein FUS/TLS in DNA damage response: A quantitative proteomic approach

FUS/TLS (fused in sarcoma/translocated in liposarcoma) is a ubiquitously expressed RNA-binding protein of the hnRNP family, that has been discovered as fused to transcription factors, through chromosomal translocations, in several human sarcomas and found in protein aggregates in neurons of patients with an inherited form of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) [1]. To date, FUS/TLS has been implicated in a variety of cellular processes such as gene expression control, transcriptional regulation, pre-mRNA splicing and miRNA processing [2]. In addition, some evidences link FUS/TLS to genome stability control and DNA damage response. In fact, mice lacking FUS/TLS are hypersensitive to ionizing radiation (IR) and show high levels of chromosome instability and in response to double-strand breaks, FUS/TLS gets phosphorylated by the protein kinase ATM [3,4,5]. Furthermore, the inducible depletion of FUS/TLS in a neuroblastoma cell line (SH-SY5Y FUS/TLS TET-off iKD) subjected to genotoxic stress (IR) resulted in an increased phosphorylation of γH2AX respect to control cells, suggesting an higher activation of the DNA damage response. The study aims to investigate the specific role of FUS/TLS in DNA damage response through the characterization of the proteomic profile of SH-SY5Y FUS/TLS iKD cells subjected to DNA damage stress, by mass spectrometry-based quantitative proteomics (e.g. SILAC). Preliminary results of mass spectrometric identification of FUS/TLS interacting proteins in HEK293 cells, expressing a recombinant flag-tagged FUS/TLS protein, highlighted the interactions with several proteins involved in DNA damage response, such as DNA-PK, XRCC-5/-6, and ERCC-6, raising the possibilities that FUS/TLS is involved in this pathway, even thou its exact role still need to be addressed.

Characterization of the potential role for RNA-binding protein FUS in DNA damage response: A quantitative proteomic approach

FUS/TLS (fused in sarcoma/translocated in liposarcoma) is a ubiquitously expressed protein of the hnRNP family, that has been discovered as fused to transcription factors in several human sarcomas and found in protein aggregates in neurons of patients with an inherited form of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis [Vance C. et al., 2009]. FUS is a 53 kDa nuclear protein that contains structural domains, such as a RNA Recognition Motif (RRM) and a zinc finger motif, that give to FUS the ability to bind to both RNA and DNA sequences. It has been implicated in a variety of cellular processes, such as pre-mRNA splicing, miRNA processing, gene expression control and transcriptional regulation [Fiesel FC. and Kahle PJ., 2011]. Moreover, some evidences link FUS to genome stability control and DNA damage response: mice lacking FUS are hypersensitive to ionizing radiation (IR) and show high levels of chromosome instability and, in response to double-strand breaks, FUS is phosphorylated by the protein kinase ATM [Kuroda M. et al., 2000; Hicks GG. et al., 2000; Gardiner M. et al., 2008]. Furthermore, preliminary results of mass spectrometric identification of FUS interacting proteins in HEK293 cells, expressing a recombinant flag-tagged FUS protein, highlighted the interactions with proteins involved in DNA damage response, such as DNA-PK, XRCC-5/-6, and ERCC-6, raising the possibilities that FUS is involved in this pathway, even though its role still needs to be clarified. This study aims to investigate the biological roles of FUS in human cells and in particular the putative role in DNA damage response through the characterization of the proteomic profile of the neuroblastoma cell line SH-SY5Y upon FUS inducible depletion, by a quantitative proteomic approach. The SH-SY5Y cell line that will be used in this study expresses, in presence of tetracycline, a shRNA that targets FUS mRNA, leading to FUS protein depletion (SH-SY5Y FUS iKD cells). To quantify changes in proteins expression levels a SILAC strategy (Stable Isotope Labeling by Amino acids in Cell culture) will be conducted on SH-SY5Y FUS iKD cells and a control SH-SY5Y cell line (that expresses a mock shRNA) and the relative changes in proteins levels will be evaluated after five and seven days upon FUS depletion, by nanoliquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (nLC-MS/MS) and bioinformatics analysis. Preliminary experiments demonstrated that the SH-SY5Y FUS iKD cells, when subjected to genotoxic stress (high dose of IR), upon inducible depletion of FUS, showed a increased phosphorylation of gH2AX with respect to control cells, suggesting an higher activation of the DNA damage response.

Plant-plant interactions, environmental gradients and plant diversity: A global synthesis of community-level studies

Previous syntheses on the effects of environmental conditions on the outcome of plant-plant interactions summarize results from pairwise studies. However, the upscaling to the community-level of such studies is problematic because of the existence of multiple species assemblages and species-specific responses to both the environmental conditions and the presence of neighbors. We conducted the first global synthesis of community-level studies from harsh environments, which included data from 71 alpine and 137 dryland communities to: (i) test how important are facilitative interactions as a driver of community structure, (ii) evaluate whether we can predict the frequency of positive plant-plant interactions across differing environmental conditions and habitats, and (iii) assess whether thresholds in the response of plant-plant interactions to environmental gradients exists between ``moderate'' and ``extreme'' environments. We also used those community-level studies performed across gradients of at least three points to evaluate how the average environmental conditions, the length of the gradient studied, and the number of points sampled across such gradient affect the form and strength of the facilitation-environmental conditions relationship. Over 25% of the species present were more spatially associated to nurse plants than expected by chance in both alpine and chyland areas, illustrating the high importance of positive plant-plant interactions for the maintenance of plant diversity in these environments. Facilitative interactions were more frequent, and more related to environmental conditions, in alpine than in dryland areas, perhaps because drylands are generally characterized by a larger variety of environmental stress factors and plant functional traits. The frequency of facilitative interactions in alpine communities peaked at 1000 mm of annual rainfall, and globally decreased with elevation. The frequency of positive interactions in dtyland communities decreased globally with water scarcity or temperature annual range. Positive facilitation-drought stress relationships are more likely in shorter regional gradients, but these relationships are obscured in regions with a greater species turnover or with complex environmental gradients. By showing the different climatic drivers and behaviors of plant-plant interactions in dryland and alpine areas, our results will improve predictions regarding the effect of facilitation on the assembly of plant communities and their response to changes in environmental conditions.

The global carbon budget 1959–2011

Accurate assessments of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. Finally, the global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms. For the last decade available (2002–2011), EFF was 8.3 ± 0.4 PgC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 PgC yr−1. For year 2011 alone, EFF was 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, 3.0 percent above 2010, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, approximately constant throughout the decade; GATM was 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.7 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. GATM was low in 2011 compared to the 2002–2011 average because of a high uptake by the land probably in response to natural climate variability associated to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 391.31 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011. We estimate that EFF will have increased by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of gross world product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future.