Bayesian generalized linear models for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests

With the recognition of the importance of evidence-based medicine, there is an emerging need for methods to systematically synthesize available data. Specifically, methods to provide accurate estimates of test characteristics for diagnostic tests are needed to help physicians make better clinical decisions. To provide more flexible approaches for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests, we developed three Bayesian generalized linear models. Two of these models, a bivariate normal and a binomial model, analyzed pairs of sensitivity and specificity values while incorporating the correlation between these two outcome variables. Noninformative independent uniform priors were used for the variance of sensitivity, specificity and correlation. We also applied an inverse Wishart prior to check the sensitivity of the results. The third model was a multinomial model where the test results were modeled as multinomial random variables. All three models can include specific imaging techniques as covariates in order to compare performance. Vague normal priors were assigned to the coefficients of the covariates. The computations were carried out using the 'Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling' implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We investigated the properties of the three proposed models through extensive simulation studies. We also applied these models to a previously published meta-analysis dataset on cervical cancer as well as to an unpublished melanoma dataset. In general, our findings show that the point estimates of sensitivity and specificity were consistent among Bayesian and frequentist bivariate normal and binomial models. However, in the simulation studies, the estimates of the correlation coefficient from Bayesian bivariate models are not as good as those obtained from frequentist estimation regardless of which prior distribution was used for the covariance matrix. The Bayesian multinomial model consistently underestimated the sensitivity and specificity regardless of the sample size and correlation coefficient. In conclusion, the Bayesian bivariate binomial model provides the most flexible framework for future applications because of its following strengths: (1) it facilitates direct comparison between different tests; (2) it captures the variability in both sensitivity and specificity simultaneously as well as the intercorrelation between the two; and (3) it can be directly applied to sparse data without ad hoc correction. ^

Detecting genetic and nutritional lung cancer risk factors related to folate metabolism using Bayesian generalized linear models

Complex diseases, such as cancer, are caused by various genetic and environmental factors, and their interactions. Joint analysis of these factors and their interactions would increase the power to detect risk factors but is statistically. Bayesian generalized linear models using student-t prior distributions on coefficients, is a novel method to simultaneously analyze genetic factors, environmental factors, and interactions. I performed simulation studies using three different disease models and demonstrated that the variable selection performance of Bayesian generalized linear models is comparable to that of Bayesian stochastic search variable selection, an improved method for variable selection when compared to standard methods. I further evaluated the variable selection performance of Bayesian generalized linear models using different numbers of candidate covariates and different sample sizes, and provided a guideline for required sample size to achieve a high power of variable selection using Bayesian generalize linear models, considering different scales of number of candidate covariates. ^ Polymorphisms in folate metabolism genes and nutritional factors have been previously associated with lung cancer risk. In this study, I simultaneously analyzed 115 tag SNPs in folate metabolism genes, 14 nutritional factors, and all possible genetic-nutritional interactions from 1239 lung cancer cases and 1692 controls using Bayesian generalized linear models stratified by never, former, and current smoking status. SNPs in MTRR were significantly associated with lung cancer risk across never, former, and current smokers. In never smokers, three SNPs in TYMS and three gene-nutrient interactions, including an interaction between SHMT1 and vitamin B12, an interaction between MTRR and total fat intake, and an interaction between MTR and alcohol use, were also identified as associated with lung cancer risk. These lung cancer risk factors are worthy of further investigation.^

An Economic Derivation on Trade Coefficients under the Framework of Multi-regional I-O Analysis

The gravity model, entropy model, potential type model and others like these have been adopted to formulate interregional trade coefficients under the framework of Multi-Regional I-O (MRIO) analysis. Since most of these models are based upon analogies in physics or on statistical principles, they do not provide a theoretical explanation from the view of a firm's or individual's rational and deterministic decision making. In this paper, according to the deterministic choice theory, not only is an alternative formulation of the trade coefficients presented, but also a discussion of an appropriate definition for purchasing prices indices. Since this formulation is consistent with the MRIO system, it can be employed as a useful model-building tool in multi-regional models such as the spatial CGE model.

A Generalized Regression Methodology for Bivariate Heteroscedastic Data

We present a methodology for reducing a straight line fitting regression problem to a Least Squares minimization one. This is accomplished through the definition of a measure on the data space that takes into account directional dependences of errors, and the use of polar descriptors for straight lines. This strategy improves the robustness by avoiding singularities and non-describable lines. The methodology is powerful enough to deal with non-normal bivariate heteroscedastic data error models, but can also supersede classical regression methods by making some particular assumptions. An implementation of the methodology for the normal bivariate case is developed and evaluated.

Compile-time derivation of variable dependency using abstract interpretation

Traditional schemes for abstract interpretation-based global analysis of logic programs generally focus on obtaining procedure argument mode and type information. Variable sharing information is often given only the attention needed to preserve the correctness of the analysis. However, such sharing information can be very useful. In particular, it can be used for predicting runtime goal independence, which can eliminate costly run-time checks in and-parallel execution. In this paper, a new algorithm for doing abstract interpretation in logic programs is described which concentrates on inferring the dependencies of the terms bound to program variables with increased precisión and at all points in the execution of the program, rather than just at a procedure level. Algorithms are presented for computing abstract entry and success substitutions which extensively keep track of variable aliasing and term dependence information. In addition, a new, abstract domain independent ñxpoint algorithm is presented and described in detail. The algorithms are illustrated with examples. Finally, results from an implementation of the abstract interpreter are presented.

A Web Implementation of A Generalized NEP

The Networks of Evolutionary Processors (NEPs) are computing mechanisms directly inspired from the behavior of cell populations more specifically the point mutations in DNA strands. These mechanisms are been used for solving NP-complete problems by means of a parallel computation postulation. This paper describes an implementation of the basic model of NEP using Web technologies and includes the possibility of designing some of the most common variants of it by means the use of the web page design which eases the configuration of a given problem. It is a system intended to be used in a multicore processor in order to benefit from the multi thread use.

Altered brain rhythms and functional network disruptions involved in patients with generalized fixation-off epilepsy

Fixation-off sensitivity (FOS) denotes the forms of epilepsy elicited by elimination of fixation. FOS-IGE patients are rare cases [1]. In a previous work [2] we showed that two FOS-IGE patients had different altered EEG rhythms when closing eyes; only beta band was altered in patient 1 while theta, alpha and beta were altered in patient 2. In the present work, we explain the relationship between the altered brain rhythms in these patients and the disruption in functional brain networks.

A derivation of thermodynamic principles

A detailed macroscopic description as in continuum mechanics, and just the concept of microstate,have been used to derive thermodynamics from mechanics. In opposition to statistical physics, the derivation lays emphasis on a definite prescription for macrostates (and non-equilibrium entropy), and uses basic features of the macrostate concept: complementary descriptions, involving either conservative and additive quantities or densities;scale-free character; reference to finite velocities and regions distant in space, thus introducing time indirectly. On the other hand, the derivation keeps the particle substratum (limit of number of particles N taken at fixed densities), and makes no ergodic-type considerations.

A new similarity function for generalized trapezoidal fuzzy numbers

Numerous authors have proposed functions to quantify the degree of similarity between two fuzzy numbers using various descriptive parameters, such as the geometric distance, the distance between the centers of gravity or the perimeter. However, these similarity functions have drawback for specific situations. We propose a new similarity measure for generalized trapezoidal fuzzy numbers aimed at overcoming such drawbacks. This new measure accounts for the distance between the centers of gravity and the geometric distance but also incorporates a new term based on the shared area between the fuzzy numbers. The proposed measure is compared against other measures in the literature.

Variable structure control with chattering elimination and guaranteed stability for a generalized T-S model

In this paper, a fuzzy based Variable Structure Control (VSC) with guaranteed stability is presented. The main objective is to obtain an improved performance of highly non-linear unstable systems. The main contribution of this work is that, firstly, new functions for chattering reduction and error convergence without sacrificing invariant properties are proposed, which is considered the main drawback of the VSC control. Secondly, the global stability of the controlled system is guaranteed.The well known weighting parameters approach, is used in this paper to optimize local and global approximation and modeling capability of T-S fuzzy model.A one link robot is chosen as a nonlinear unstable system to evaluate the robustness, effectiveness and remarkable performance of optimization approach and the high accuracy obtained in approximating nonlinear systems in comparison with the original T-S model. Simulation results indicate the potential and generality of the algorithm. The application of the proposed FLC-VSC shows that both alleviation of chattering and robust performance are achieved with the proposed FLC-VSC controller. The effectiveness of the proposed controller is proven in front of disturbances and noise effects.

Variable structure control with chattering reduction of a generalized T-S model

In this paper, a fuzzy logic controller (FLC) based variable structure control (VSC) is presented. The main objective is to obtain an improved performance of highly non-linear unstable systems. New functions for chattering reduction and error convergence without sacrificing invariant properties are proposed. The main feature of the proposed method is that the switching function is added as an additional fuzzy variable and will be introduced in the premise part of the fuzzy rules; together with the state variables. In this work, a tuning of the well known weighting parameters approach is proposed to optimize local and global approximation and modelling capability of the Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy model to improve the choice of the performance index and minimize it. The main problem encountered is that the T-S identification method can not be applied when the membership functions are overlapped by pairs. This in turn restricts the application of the T-S method because this type of membership function has been widely used in control applications. The approach developed here can be considered as a generalized version of the T-S method. An inverted pendulum mounted on a cart is chosen to evaluate the robustness, effectiveness, accuracy and remarkable performance of the proposed estimation approach in comparison with the original T-S model. Simulation results indicate the potential, simplicity and generality of the estimation method and the robustness of the chattering reduction algorithm. In this paper, we prove that the proposed estimation algorithm converge the very fast, thereby making it very practical to use. The application of the proposed FLC-VSC shows that both alleviation of chattering and robust performance are achieved.

Nonparametric generalized belief propagation based on pseudo-junction tree for cooperative localization in wireless networks

Non-parametric belief propagation (NBP) is a well-known message passing method for cooperative localization in wireless networks. However, due to the over-counting problem in the networks with loops, NBP’s convergence is not guaranteed, and its estimates are typically less accurate. One solution for this problem is non-parametric generalized belief propagation based on junction tree. However, this method is intractable in large-scale networks due to the high-complexity of the junction tree formation, and the high-dimensionality of the particles. Therefore, in this article, we propose the non-parametric generalized belief propagation based on pseudo-junction tree (NGBP-PJT). The main difference comparing with the standard method is the formation of pseudo-junction tree, which represents the approximated junction tree based on thin graph. In addition, in order to decrease the number of high-dimensional particles, we use more informative importance density function, and reduce the dimensionality of the messages. As by-product, we also propose NBP based on thin graph (NBP-TG), a cheaper variant of NBP, which runs on the same graph as NGBP-PJT. According to our simulation and experimental results, NGBP-PJT method outperforms NBP and NBP-TG in terms of accuracy, computational, and communication cost in reasonably sized networks.