Asset Price Instability and Policy Responses: The Legacy of Liberalisation

The debate about the dynamics and potential policy responses to asset inflation has intensified in recent years. Some analysts, notably Borio and Lowe, have called for 'subtle' changes to existing monetary targeting frameworks to try to deal with the problems of asset inflation and have attempted to developed indicators of financial vulnerability to aid this process. In contrast, this paper argues that the uncertainties involved in understanding financial market developments and their potential impact on the real economy are likely to remain too high to embolden policy makers. The political and institutional risks associated with policy errors are also significant. The fundamental premise that a liberalised financial system is based on 'efficient' market allocation cannot be overlooked. The corollary is that any serious attempt to stabilize financial market outcomes must involve at least a partial reversal of deregulation.

Dependence of transient dynamics in a class-C laser upon variation of inversion with time

The transient statistics of a gain-switched coherently pumped class-C laser displays a linear correlation between the first passage time and subsequent peak intensity. Measurements are reported showing a positive or negative sign of this linear correlation, controlled through the switching time and the laser detuning. Further measurements of the small-signal laser gain combined with calculations involving a three-level laser model indicate that this sign fundamentally depends upon the way the laser inversion varies during the gain switching, despite the added dynamics of the laser polarization in the class-C laser. [S1050-2947(97)07112-6].

Regulation of photosynthetic pigments in micro-algae by multiple environmental factors: a dynamic balance hypothesis

Environmental effects on the concentration of photosynthetic pigments in micro-algae can be explained by dynamics of photosystem synthesis and deactivation. A model that couples photosystem losses to the relative cellular rates of energy harvesting (light absorption) and assimilation predicts optimal concentrations of light-harvesting pigments and balanced energy flow under environmental conditions that affect light availability and metabolic rates. Effects of light intensity, nutrient supply and temperature on growth rate and pigment levels were similar to general patterns observed across diverse micro-algal taxa. Results imply that dynamic behaviour associated with photophysical stress, and independent of gene regulation, might constitute one mechanism for photo-acclimation of photosynthesis.

Matrix elements of U(2n) generators in a multishell spin-orbit basis. III. General formulas

This is the third and final article in a series directed toward the evaluation of the U(2n) generator matrix elements (MEs) in a multishell spin/orbit basis. Such a basis is required for many-electron systems possessing a partitioned orbital space and where spin-dependence is important. The approach taken is based on the transformation properties of the U(2n) generators as an adjoint tensor operator of U(n) x U(2) and application of the Wigner-Eckart theorem. A complete set of adjoint coupling coefficients for the two-shell composite Gelfand-Paldus basis (which is appropriate to the many-electron problem) were obtained in the first and second articles of this series. Ln the first article we defined zero-shift coupling coefficients. These are proportional to the corresponding two-shell del-operator matrix elements. See P. J. Burton and and M. D. Gould, J. Chem. Phys., 104, 5112 (1996), for a discussion of the del-operator and its properties. Ln the second article of the series, the nonzero shift coupling coefficients were derived. Having obtained all the necessary coefficients, we now apply the formalism developed above to obtain the U(2n) generator MEs in a multishell spin-orbit basis. The methods used are based on the work of Gould et al. (see the above reference). (C) 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Improving wheat simulation capabilities in Australia from a cropping systems perspective - II. Testing simulation capabilities of wheat growth

To simulate cropping systems, crop models must not only give reliable predictions of yield across a wide range of environmental conditions, they must also quantify water and nutrient use well, so that the status of the soil at maturity is a good representation of the starting conditions for the next cropping sequence. To assess the suitability for this task a range of crop models, currently used in Australia, were tested. The models differed in their design objectives, complexity and structure and were (i) tested on diverse, independent data sets from a wide range of environments and (ii) model components were further evaluated with one detailed data set from a semi-arid environment. All models were coded into the cropping systems shell APSIM, which provides a common soil water and nitrogen balance. Crop development was input, thus differences between simulations were caused entirely by difference in simulating crop growth. Under nitrogen non-limiting conditions between 73 and 85% of the observed kernel yield variation across environments was explained by the models. This ranged from 51 to 77% under varying nitrogen supply. Water and nitrogen effects on leaf area index were predicted poorly by all models resulting in erroneous predictions of dry matter accumulation and water use. When measured light interception was used as input, most models improved in their prediction of dry matter and yield. This test highlighted a range of compensating errors in all modelling approaches. Time course and final amount of water extraction was simulated well by two models, while others left up to 25% of potentially available soil water in the profile. Kernel nitrogen percentage was predicted poorly by all models due to its sensitivity to small dry matter changes. Yield and dry matter could be estimated adequately for a range of environmental conditions using the general concepts of radiation use efficiency and transpiration efficiency. However, leaf area and kernel nitrogen dynamics need to be improved to achieve better estimates of water and nitrogen use if such models are to be use to evaluate cropping systems. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Spin-glass dynamics

Spin glasses are magnetic systems with conflicting and random interactions between the individual spins. The dynamics of spin glasses, as of structural glasses, reflect their complexity. Both in experimental and numerical work the relaxation below the freezing temperature depends strongly on the annealing conditions (aging) and, above the freezing point, relaxation in equilibrium is slow and non-exponential, In this Forum, observed characteristics of the dynamics were summarized and the physical models proposed to explain them were outlined. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Women's satisfaction with general practice consultations

Objective: To determine women's satisfaction with general practice services. Design: Cross-sectional postal questionnaire conducted during April to September 1996 (part of the baseline survey of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health). Participants: Women aged 18-22 (n=14739), 45-49 (n=14013) and 70-74 (n=12941) years, randomly selected from the Medicare database, with oversampling of women from rural and remote areas. Main outcome measures: Frequency of use of general practice services; satisfaction with the most recent visit to a general practitioner (CP), prevalence of selected symptoms; preference for a female doctor. Results: The most recent visit to a GP was rated overall as good, very good or excellent by more than 80% of women, with increasing levels of satisfaction with increasing age of the women. However, satisfaction was lower for waiting room time and cost of the visit. A third of the young and middle-aged women living in rural and remote areas were dissatisfied with the cost of the visit. Young women were more likely to prefer a female doctor, and many were dissatisfied with their GP's skills at explaining their problem and giving them a chance to give an opinion and ask questions. The most prevalent symptoms for all women included headaches and tiredness, and many were not satisfied with the health services available to help them deal with these symptoms. Conclusions: Australian women have high levels of satisfaction with GP consultations. However, more effective strategies may be needed to improve communication with younger women, and there is an unmet need for services to help all women deal with some common symptoms. Dissatisfaction with cost of services and women's preference for female doctors have implications for future health policy.

A study of the stability of subcycling algorithms in structural dynamics

Algorithms for explicit integration of structural dynamics problems with multiple time steps (subcycling) are investigated. Only one such algorithm, due to Smolinski and Sleith has proved to be stable in a classical sense. A simplified version of this algorithm that retains its stability is presented. However, as with the original version, it can be shown to sacrifice accuracy to achieve stability. Another algorithm in use is shown to be only statistically stable, in that a probability of stability can be assigned if appropriate time step limits are observed. This probability improves rapidly with the number of degrees of freedom in a finite element model. The stability problems are shown to be a property of the central difference method itself, which is modified to give the subcycling algorithm. A related problem is shown to arise when a constraint equation in time is introduced into a time-continuous space-time finite element model. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A.

Ecosystem dynamics at disturbed and undisturbed sites in North Queensland wet tropical rain forest. III. Nutrient returns to the forest floor through litterfall

The nutrient contents and accessions in litterfall over a period of 3 y are reported for undisturbed areas and at two sites disturbed by selective harvesting in tropical rain forest in North Queensland, Australia. Mean concentrations (mg g(-1) dry weight) of nutrients in litterfall ranged from 10 to 12 for nitrogen; 0.33 to 0.43 for phosphorus; 3.6 to 4.3 for potassium; 6.0 to 10.5 for calcium and 1.7 to 2.6 for magnesium. These concentrations are in the middle to lower part of the spectrum of values recorded for tropical forest. Accessions of nutrients in litterfall (kg ha(-1) y(-1)) ranged from 59 to 64 N; 1.9 to 2.4 P; 20 to 24K; 34 to 63 Ca; and 9 to 16 Mg. These rates, particularly for IN and P, are among the lowest recorded for tropical forests. There were no consistent between-site differences in total nutrient accessions in small litterfall. In terms of the contribution of litterfall to the accessions of nutrients to the forest floor, this suggests that the logged sites have recovered from the effects of selective harvesting within 25 y. Nutrient accessions at each site were distinctly seasonal, with maximum accessions occurring in the late dry season to late in the wet season. Leaf-fall accounted for the largest proportion of nutrient accessions over the study period, although at certain times accessions in both reproductive material and wood were significant. A cyclone which crossed the coast near the study sites resulted in large nutrient accessions over a short period but had little effect on the total annual accession. A comparison with previous studies of litterfall in Australian tropical rainforests indicates that nutrient return in litterfall is directly related to soil fertility.

The influence of joint position on the dynamics of perception-action coupling

Six right-handed subjects performed rhythmic flexion and extension movements of the index finger in time with an auditory metronome. On each block of trials, the wrist of the response hand was placed in a extended, neutral or flexed position. In the flex-on-the-beat condition, subjects were instructed to coordinate maximum excursion in the direction of finger flexion with each beat of the metronome. In the extend-on-the-beat condition, subjects were instructed to coordinate maximum excursion in the direction of finger extension with each beat of the metronome. The frequency of the metronome was increased from 2.00 Hz to 3.75 Hz in 8 steps (8 s epochs) of 0.25 Hz. During trials prepared in the extend-on-the-beat pattern, all subjects exhibited transitions to either a flex-on-the-beat pattern or to phase wandering as the frequency of pacing was increased. The time at which these transitions occurred was reliably influenced by the position of the wrist. Four subjects exhibited qualitative departures from the flex-on-the-beat pattern at pacing frequencies that were greater than those at which the extend-on-the-beat pattern could be maintained. The lime at which these departures occurred was not influenced by the position of the wrist. These results are discussed with reference to the constraints imposed on the coordination dynamics by the intrinsic properties of the neuromuscular-skeletal system.