Transient state estimation in paleoclimatology using data assimilation

Data assimilation methods used for transient atmospheric state estimations in paleoclimatology such as covariance-based approaches, analogue techniques and nudging are briefly introduced. With applications differing widely, a plurality of approaches appears to be the logical way forward.

Impact of volcanic stratospheric aerosols on diurnal temperature range in Europe over the past 200 years: Observations versus model simulations

We analyze the impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols on the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over Europe using long-term subdaily station records. We compare the results with a 28-member ensemble of European Centre/Hamburg version 5.4 (ECHAM5.4) general circulation model simulations. Eight stratospheric volcanic eruptions during the instrumental period are investigated. Seasonal all- and clear-sky DTR anomalies are compared with contemporary (approximately 20 year) reference periods. Clear sky is used to eliminate cloud effects and better estimate the signal from the direct radiative forcing of the volcanic aerosols. We do not find a consistent effect of stratospheric aerosols on all-sky DTR. For clear skies, we find average DTR anomalies of −0.08°C (−0.13°C) in the observations (in the model), with the largest effect in the second winter after the eruption. Although the clear-sky DTR anomalies from different stations, volcanic eruptions, and seasons show heterogeneous signals in terms of order of magnitude and sign, the significantly negative DTR anomalies (e.g., after the Tambora eruption) are qualitatively consistent with other studies. Referencing with clear-sky DTR anomalies to the radiative forcing from stratospheric volcanic eruptions, we find the resulting sensitivity to be of the same order of magnitude as previously published estimates for tropospheric aerosols during the so-called “global dimming” period (i.e., 1950s to 1980s). Analyzing cloud cover changes after volcanic eruptions reveals an increase in clear-sky days in both data sets. Quantifying the impact of stratospheric volcanic eruptions on clear-sky DTR over Europe provides valuable information for the study of the radiative effect of stratospheric aerosols and for geo-engineering purposes.

A global historical ozone data set and prominent features of stratospheric variability prior to 1979

We present a vertically resolved zonal mean monthly mean global ozone data set spanning the period 1901 to 2007, called HISTOZ.1.0. It is based on a new approach that combines information from an ensemble of chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations with historical total column ozone information. The CCM simulations incorporate important external drivers of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics (in particular solar and volcanic effects, greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, sea surface temperatures, and the quasi-biennial oscillation). The historical total column ozone observations include ground-based measurements from the 1920s onward and satellite observations from 1970 to 1976. An off-line data assimilation approach is used to combine model simulations, observations, and information on the observation error. The period starting in 1979 was used for validation with existing ozone data sets and therefore only ground-based measurements were assimilated. Results demonstrate considerable skill from the CCM simulations alone. Assimilating observations provides additional skill for total column ozone. With respect to the vertical ozone distribution, assimilating observations increases on average the correlation with a reference data set, but does not decrease the mean squared error. Analyses of HISTOZ.1.0 with respect to the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the 11 yr solar cycle on stratospheric ozone from 1934 to 1979 qualitatively confirm previous studies that focussed on the post-1979 period. The ENSO signature exhibits a much clearer imprint of a change in strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation compared to the post-1979 period. The imprint of the 11 yr solar cycle is slightly weaker in the earlier period. Furthermore, the total column ozone increase from the 1950s to around 1970 at northern mid-latitudes is briefly discussed. Indications for contributions of a tropospheric ozone increase, greenhouse gases, and changes in atmospheric circulation are found. Finally, the paper points at several possible future improvements of HISTOZ.1.0.

Spectral biases in tree-ring climate proxies

External forcing and internal dynamics result in climate system variability ranging from sub-daily weather to multi-centennial trends and beyond1, 2. State-of-the-art palaeoclimatic methods routinely use hydroclimatic proxies to reconstruct temperature (for example, refs 3, 4), possibly blurring differences in the variability continuum of temperature and precipitation before the instrumental period. Here, we assess the spectral characteristics of temperature and precipitation fluctuations in observations, model simulations and proxy records across the globe. We find that whereas an ensemble of different general circulation models represents patterns captured in instrumental measurements, such as land–ocean contrasts and enhanced low-frequency tropical variability, the tree-ring-dominated proxy collection does not. The observed dominance of inter-annual precipitation fluctuations is not reflected in the annually resolved hydroclimatic proxy records. Likewise, temperature-sensitive proxies overestimate, on average, the ratio of low- to high-frequency variability. These spectral biases in the proxy records seem to propagate into multi-proxy climate reconstructions for which we observe an overestimation of low-frequency signals. Thus, a proper representation of the high- to low-frequency spectrum in proxy records is needed to reduce uncertainties in climate reconstruction efforts.

Long-term stability of early implant placement with contour augmentation

In this prospective case series study, 20 patients with an implant-borne single crown following early implant placement with simultaneous contour augmentation were followed for 6 years. Clinical, radiologic, and esthetic parameters were assessed. In addition, cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) was used at 6 years to examine the facial bone wall. During the study period, all 20 implants were successfully integrated, and the clinical parameters remained stable over time. Pleasing esthetic outcomes were noted, as assessed by the pink esthetic scores. None of the implants developed mucosal recession of 1 mm or more. The periapical radiographs yielded stable peri-implant bone levels, with a mean DIB of 0.44 mm at 6 years. The CBCT scans showed that all 20 implants had a detectable facial bone wall at 6 years, with a mean thickness of around 1.9 mm. In summary, this prospective case series study demonstrated stable peri-implant hard and soft tissues for all 20 implants, and pleasing esthetic outcomes overall. The follow-up of 6 years confirmed that the risk for mucosal recession is low with early implant placement. In addition, contour augmentation with guided bone regeneration (GBR) was able to establish and maintain a facial bone wall in all 20 patients.

Differences between recent and historical records of upperspecies limits in the northern European Alps

Are there differences in historical and recent upper range limits of vascular plants and are such differences more pronounced in individual species groups? The limits of 1103 plants of the Northern Alps are compared to range limits in the mid-19th century. The comparison is based on two surveys. The first survey was conducted by Otto Sendtner in 1848–1853, the second in 1991–2008 during a habitat inventory. To our knowledge this is the first comparative studies reaching back to the end of the “Little Ice Age” and comprising an almost entire regional flora covering the complete range of habitats. During the recent survey, most species were found at higher elevations. Even though the differences fit well with the expected shifts due to climate warming we cannot exclude effects of sampling bias. However, we assume that the relative differences between species groups can be safely interpreted. The differences in upper limits between both surveys were significantly larger among forest species. The most important reason is probably discontinued pasture and mowing, which may have amplified possible warming effects. Nitrogen deposits may have contributed to this effect by placing competitive species in a more advantageous position.

Osteocyte lacunar density and area in newly formed bone of the augmented sinus

OBJECTIVES Osteocytes, the most common cells of the bone, are buried in lacunae. Density and area of the osteocyte lacunae change with increasing maturation of the newly formed bone. Evaluation of osteocyte lacunae can therefore provide insights into the process of graft consolidation. MATERIALS AND METHODS Here, we determined the osteocyte lacunar density (number of osteocyte lacunae per bone area; N.Ot/BAr) and the osteocyte lacunar area in μm(2) (Lac.Ar) in histological specimens 6 and 12 weeks after the sinuses of 10 minipigs were augmented with Bio-Oss(®) , a deproteinized bovine bone mineral, and Ostim(®) , an aqueous paste of synthetic nanoparticular hydroxyapatite. The region of interest was defined by the following criteria: (i) >1 mm from the host bone, (ii) >0.5 mm from the sinus mucosa, (iii) minimum area of 0.2 mm(2) , and (iv) bone tissue spanning at least two bone substitute particles. RESULTS The overall osteocyte lacunar density was significantly higher in the Bio-Oss(®) group than in the Ostim(®) group and decreased during the observation period at a similar range in both groups. The osteocyte lacunar area was smaller in the Bio-Oss(®) group than the Ostim(®) group but there was no significant change within the groups over time. CONCLUSIONS These results suggest that bone substitutes affect the osteocyte lacunar density and the osteocyte lacunar area in the newly formed bone within the augmented sinus in this particular model situation. These measures can provide insights into the maturation of newly formed bone in the augmented sinus.

Bone healing around titanium implants in two rat colitis models

OBJECTIVE Crohn's disease is a chronic inflammatory process that has recently been associated with a higher risk of early implant failure. Herein we provide information on the impact of colitis on peri-implant bone formation using preclinical models of chemically induced colitis. METHODS Colitis was induced by intrarectal instillation of 2,4,6-trinitro-benzene-sulfonic-acid (TNBS). Colitis was also induced by feeding rats dextran-sodium-sulfate (DSS) in drinking water. One week after disease induction, titanium miniscrews were inserted into the tibia. Four weeks after implantation, peri-implant bone volume per tissue volume (BV/TV) and bone-to-implant contacts (BIC) were determined by histomorphometric analysis. RESULTS Cortical histomorphometric parameters were similar in the control (n = 10), DSS (n = 10) and TNBS (n = 8) groups. Cortical BV/TV was 92.2 ± 3.7%, 92.0 ± 3.0% and 92.6 ± 2.7%. Cortical BIC was 81.3 ± 8.8%, 83.2 ± 8.4% and 84.0 ± 7.0%, respectively. No significant differences were observed when comparing the medullary BV/TV and BIC (19.5 ± 6.4%, 16.2 ± 5.6% and 15.4 ± 9.0%) and (48.8 ± 12.9%, 49.2 ± 6.2 and 41.9 ± 11.7%), respectively. Successful induction of colitis was confirmed by loss of body weight and colon morphology. CONCLUSIONS The results suggest bone regeneration around implants is not impaired in chemically induced colitis models. Considering that Crohn's disease can affect any part of the gastrointestinal tract including the mouth, our model only partially reflects the clinical situation.

Pregnancy and birth cohort resources in europe: a large opportunity for aetiological child health research

BACKGROUND During the past 25 years, many pregnancy and birth cohorts have been established. Each cohort provides unique opportunities for examining associations of early-life exposures with child development and health. However, to fully exploit the large amount of available resources and to facilitate cross-cohort collaboration, it is necessary to have accessible information on each cohort and its individual characteristics. The aim of this work was to provide an overview of European pregnancy and birth cohorts registered in a freely accessible database located at http://www.birthcohorts.net. METHODS European pregnancy and birth cohorts initiated in 1980 or later with at least 300 mother-child pairs enrolled during pregnancy or at birth, and with postnatal data, were eligible for inclusion. Eligible cohorts were invited to provide information on the data and biological samples collected, as well as the timing of data collection. RESULTS In total, 70 cohorts were identified. Of these, 56 fulfilled the inclusion criteria encompassing a total of more than 500,000 live-born European children. The cohorts represented 19 countries with the majority of cohorts located in Northern and Western Europe. Some cohorts were general with multiple aims, whilst others focused on specific health or exposure-related research questions. CONCLUSION This work demonstrates a great potential for cross-cohort collaboration addressing important aspects of child health. The web site, http://www.birthcohorts.net, proved to be a useful tool for accessing information on European pregnancy and birth cohorts and their characteristics.

Preterm birth, infant weight gain, and childhood asthma risk: A meta-analysis of 147,000 European children

BACKGROUND Preterm birth, low birth weight, and infant catch-up growth seem associated with an increased risk of respiratory diseases in later life, but individual studies showed conflicting results. OBJECTIVES We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis for 147,252 children of 31 birth cohort studies to determine the associations of birth and infant growth characteristics with the risks of preschool wheezing (1-4 years) and school-age asthma (5-10 years). METHODS First, we performed an adjusted 1-stage random-effect meta-analysis to assess the combined associations of gestational age, birth weight, and infant weight gain with childhood asthma. Second, we performed an adjusted 2-stage random-effect meta-analysis to assess the associations of preterm birth (gestational age <37 weeks) and low birth weight (<2500 g) with childhood asthma outcomes. RESULTS Younger gestational age at birth and higher infant weight gain were independently associated with higher risks of preschool wheezing and school-age asthma (P < .05). The inverse associations of birth weight with childhood asthma were explained by gestational age at birth. Compared with term-born children with normal infant weight gain, we observed the highest risks of school-age asthma in children born preterm with high infant weight gain (odds ratio [OR], 4.47; 95% CI, 2.58-7.76). Preterm birth was positively associated with an increased risk of preschool wheezing (pooled odds ratio [pOR], 1.34; 95% CI, 1.25-1.43) and school-age asthma (pOR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.18-1.67) independent of birth weight. Weaker effect estimates were observed for the associations of low birth weight adjusted for gestational age at birth with preschool wheezing (pOR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.00-1.21) and school-age asthma (pOR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.01-1.27). CONCLUSION Younger gestational age at birth and higher infant weight gain were associated with childhood asthma outcomes. The associations of lower birth weight with childhood asthma were largely explained by gestational age at birth.

Paraseptal accessory pathway in Wolff-Parkinson- White-Syndrom: ablation from the right, from the left or within the coronary sinus/middle cardiac vein?

AIMS In 1999 the consensus statement "living anatomy of the atrioventricular junctions" was published. With that new nomenclature the former posteroseptal accessory pathway (APs) are termed paraseptal APs. The aim of this study was to identify ECG features of manifest APs located in this complex paraseptal space. METHODS AND RESULTS ECG characteristics of all patients who underwent radiofrequency ablation of an AP during a 3 year period were analyzed. Of the 239 patients with one or more APs, 30 patients had a paraseptal AP with preexcitation. Compared to APs within the coronary sinus (CS) or the middle cardiac vein (MCV) the right sided paraseptal APs significantly more often showed an isoelectric delta wave in lead II and/or a negative delta wave in aVR. The left sided paraseptal APs presented a negative delta wave in II significantly more often compared to the right sided APs. CONCLUSIONS According to the site of radiofrequency ablation, paraseptal APs are classified into 4 subgroups: paraseptal right, paraseptal left, inside the CS or inside the MCV. Subtle differences in preexcitation patterns of the delta wave as well as of the QRS complex exist. However, the definitive localization of APs remains reserved to the periinterventional intracardiac electrogram analysis.