Uncertainty Quantification Of A Semi-Supervised Support Vector Regression Reservoir Model

Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.

Structural and functional brain changes in middle-aged type 2 diabetic patients: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is an emerging risk factor for cognitive impairment. Whether this impairment is a direct effect of this metabolic disorder on brain function, a consequence of vascular disease, or both, remains unknown. Structural and functional neuroimaging studies in patients with T2DM could help to elucidate this question. OBJECTIVE We designed a cross-sectional study comparing 25 T2DM patients with 25 age- and gender-matched healthy control participants. Clinical information, APOE genotype, lipid and glucose analysis, structural cerebral magnetic resonance imaging including voxel-based morphometry, and F-18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography were obtained in all subjects. METHODS Gray matter densities and metabolic differences between groups were analyzed using statistical parametric mapping. In addition to comparing the neuroimaging profiles of both groups, we correlated neuroimaging findings with HbA1c levels, duration of T2DM, and insulin resistance measurement (HOMA-IR) in the diabetic patients group. Results: Patients with T2DM presented reduced gray matter densities and reduced cerebral glucose metabolism in several fronto-temporal brain regions after controlling for various vascular risk factors. Furthermore, within the T2DM group, longer disease duration, and higher HbA1c levels and HOMA-IR were associated with lower gray matter density and reduced cerebral glucose metabolism in fronto-temporal regions. CONCLUSION In agreement with previous reports, our findings indicate that T2DM leads to structural and metabolic abnormalities in fronto-temporal areas. Furthermore, they suggest that these abnormalities are not entirely explained by the role of T2DM as a cardiovascular risk factor.

Where do these bugs come from? Phenotypic structure ofTriatoma infestans populations after control interventions in the Argentine Chaco

House re-invasion by native triatomines after insecticide-based control campaigns represents a major threat for Chagas disease vector control. We conducted a longitudinal intervention study in a rural section (Area III, 407 houses) of Pampa del Indio, northeastern Argentina, and used wing geometric morphometry to compare pre-spray and post-spray (re-infestant bugs) Triatoma infestanspopulations. The community-wide spraying with pyrethroids reduced the prevalence of house infestation by T. infestans from 31.9% to < 1% during a four-year follow-up, unlike our previous studies in the neighbouring Area I. Two groups of bug collection sites differing in wing shape variables before interventions (including 221 adults from 11 domiciles) were used as a reference for assigning 44 post-spray adults. Wing shape variables from post-spray, high-density bug colonies and pre-spray groups were significantly different, suggesting that re-infestant insects had an external origin. Insects from one house differed strongly in wing shape variables from all other specimens. A further comparison between insects from both areas supported the existence of independent re-infestation processes within the same district. These results point to local heterogeneities in house re-infestation dynamics and emphasise the need to expand the geographic coverage of vector surveillance and control operations to the affected region.

Do we truly see what we think we see? The role of cognitive bias in pathological interpretation.

In the histomorphological grading of prostate carcinoma, pathologists have regularly assigned comparable scores for the architectural Gleason and the now-obsolete nuclear World Health Organization (WHO) grading systems. Although both systems demonstrate good correspondence between grade and survival, they are based on fundamentally different biological criteria. We tested the hypothesis that this apparent concurrence between the two grading systems originates from an interpretation bias in the minds of diagnostic pathologists, rather than reflecting a biological reality. Three pathologists graded 178 prostatectomy specimens, assigning Gleason and WHO scores on glass slides and on digital images of nuclei isolated out of their architectural context. The results were analysed with respect to interdependencies among the grading systems, to tumour recurrence (PSA relapse > 0.1 ng/ml at 48 months) and robust nuclear morphometry, as assessed by computer-assisted image analysis. WHO and Gleason grades were strongly correlated (r = 0.82) and demonstrated identical prognostic power. However, WHO grades correlated poorly with nuclear morphology (r = 0.19). Grading of nuclei isolated out of their architectural context significantly improved accuracy for nuclear morphology (r = 0.55), but the prognostic power was virtually lost. In conclusion, the architectural organization of a tumour, which the pathologist cannot avoid noticing during initial slide viewing at low magnification, unwittingly influences the subsequent nuclear grade assignment. In our study, the prognostic power of the WHO grading system was dependent on visual assessment of tumour growth pattern. We demonstrate for the first time the influence a cognitive bias can have in the generation of an error in diagnostic pathology and highlight a considerable problem in histopathological tumour grading.

Diagnosi multifuncional de la conca de la riera de Santa Coloma

Estudi de la qualitat de l’aigua de la riera de Santa Coloma i el seu paper dins la connectivitat multifuncional de la comarca de la Selva. La riera és l’eix fluvial principal de la subconca més important de la Tordera i el seu curs abraça gran part de la comarca. Per avaluar la qualitat de l’aigua s’han fet anàlisis amb paràmetres fisicoquímics i biològics. Per a l’estudi de la connectivitat s’ha fet un anàlisi a nivell local (barreres transversals a la llera i QBR) i a nivell regional identificant les principals amenaces per a la connectivitat ecològica i paisatgística (col.lisions d’ungulats o punts negres, fitxes de punts crítics, entre d’altres). S’arriba a la conclusió que la riera no té una bona qualitat de l’aigua (en alguns casos hi ha eutrofització), el seu bosc de ribera està molt degradat (sobretot a la part baixa del curs) i finalment, hi ha un gran nombre d’espais amb una gran importància estratègica per a la connectivitat però que alhora pateixen fortes pressions antròpiques per les infraestructures lineals, les quals a més, redueixen la permeabilització ecològica i fins i tot, provoquen col.lisions amb ungulats

Musical training intensity yields opposite effects on grey matter density in cognitive versus sensorimotor networks.

Using optimized voxel-based morphometry, we performed grey matter density analyses on 59 age-, sex- and intelligence-matched young adults with three distinct, progressive levels of musical training intensity or expertise. Structural brain adaptations in musicians have been repeatedly demonstrated in areas involved in auditory perception and motor skills. However, musical activities are not confined to auditory perception and motor performance, but are entangled with higher-order cognitive processes. In consequence, neuronal systems involved in such higher-order processing may also be shaped by experience-driven plasticity. We modelled expertise as a three-level regressor to study possible linear relationships of expertise with grey matter density. The key finding of this study resides in a functional dissimilarity between areas exhibiting increase versus decrease of grey matter as a function of musical expertise. Grey matter density increased with expertise in areas known for their involvement in higher-order cognitive processing: right fusiform gyrus (visual pattern recognition), right mid orbital gyrus (tonal sensitivity), left inferior frontal gyrus (syntactic processing, executive function, working memory), left intraparietal sulcus (visuo-motor coordination) and bilateral posterior cerebellar Crus II (executive function, working memory) and in auditory processing: left Heschl's gyrus. Conversely, grey matter density decreased with expertise in bilateral perirolandic and striatal areas that are related to sensorimotor function, possibly reflecting high automation of motor skills. Moreover, a multiple regression analysis evidenced that grey matter density in the right mid orbital area and the inferior frontal gyrus predicted accuracy in detecting fine-grained incongruities in tonal music.

Indicator taxa of benthic diatom communities: a case study in Mediterranean streams

A key issue in the implementation of the Water Framework Directive is the classification of streams and rivers using biological quality parameters and type-specific reference conditions. Four groups of stream types were defined in NE Spain on the basis of 152 diatom samples by means of detrended correspondence analysis and classification techniques. Diatom analysis was restricted to epilithic taxa, and the sites included gradients ranging from near-natural streams to sites with poor ecological quality. The main gradient shows a clear separation of sites in relation to the degree of human influence: polluted streams (mainly located in the lowlands) differ from streams in mountainous areas and in the Pyrenees. A second gradient is related to physiographical features. Headwater streams can be distinguished by their catchment geology. The type-specific diatom taxa for the stream types studied were determined by using indicator species analysis (IndVal). The type-specific taxa from near-natural streams are coincident with the indicator taxa for high ecological status. Human impact reduced the typological heterogeneity of the diatom community composition. Overall, the diatom communities in NE Spain exhibit a regional distribution pattern that closely corresponds with that observed in river systems elsewhere. Physiographical differences are only evident in undisturbed sites, while nutrient enrichment and other human disturbances may mask the regional differences in the distribution of diatom communities

Estudi de la connectivitat longitudinal del riu Fluvià i la seva aplicació per a la gestió de l’anguila europea (Anguilla anguilla)

Estudi de la connectivitat fluvial del riu Fluvià en relació a l’anguila europea (Anguilla anguilla). S’identifiquen les barreres físiques transversals del curs principal d’aquest riu, es valora la connectivitat longitudinal mitjançant l’índex de connectivitat fluvial (ICF) i es proposen mesures correctores per tal de millorar la migració de l’anguila i el moviment natural d’altres espècies

ROCK Inhibitor Enhances Adhesion and Wound Healing of Human Corneal Endothelial Cells.

Maintenance of corneal transparency is crucial for vision and depends mainly on the endothelium, a non-proliferative monolayer of cells covering the inner part of the cornea. When endothelial cell density falls below a critical threshold, the barrier and "pump" functions of the endothelium are compromised which results in corneal oedema and loss of visual acuity. The conventional treatment for such severe disorder is corneal graft. Unfortunately, there is a worldwide shortage of donor corneas, necessitating amelioration of tissue survival and storage after harvesting. Recently it was reported that the ROCK inhibitor Y-27632 promotes adhesion, inhibits apoptosis, increases the number of proliferating monkey corneal endothelial cells in vitro and enhance corneal endothelial wound healing both in vitro and in vivo in animal models. Using organ culture human cornea (N = 34), the effect of ROCK inhibitor was evaluated in vitro and ex vivo. Toxicity, corneal endothelial cell density, cell proliferation, apoptosis, cell morphometry, adhesion and wound healing process were evaluated by live/dead assay standard cell counting method, EdU labelling, Ki67, Caspase3, Zo-1 and Actin immunostaining. We demonstrated for the first time in human corneal endothelial cells ex vivo and in vitro, that ROCK inhibitor did not induce any toxicity effect and did not alter cell viability. ROCK inhibitor treatment did not induce human corneal endothelial cells proliferation. However, ROCK inhibitor significantly enhanced adhesion and wound healing. The present study shows that the selective ROCK inhibitor Y-27632 has no effect on human corneal endothelial cells proliferative capacities, but alters cellular behaviours. It induces changes in cell shape, increases cell adhesion and enhances wound healing ex vivo and in vitro. Its absence of toxicity, as demonstrated herein, is relevant for its use in human therapy.

Predicting clinical scores from magnetic resonance scans in Alzheimer's disease.

Machine learning and pattern recognition methods have been used to diagnose Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) from individual MRI scans. Another application of such methods is to predict clinical scores from individual scans. Using relevance vector regression (RVR), we predicted individuals' performances on established tests from their MRI T1 weighted image in two independent data sets. From Mayo Clinic, 73 probable AD patients and 91 cognitively normal (CN) controls completed the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Dementia Rating Scale (DRS), and Auditory Verbal Learning Test (AVLT) within 3months of their scan. Baseline MRI's from the Alzheimer's disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) comprised the other data set; 113 AD, 351 MCI, and 122 CN subjects completed the MMSE and Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive subtest (ADAS-cog) and 39 AD, 92 MCI, and 32 CN ADNI subjects completed MMSE, ADAS-cog, and AVLT. Predicted and actual clinical scores were highly correlated for the MMSE, DRS, and ADAS-cog tests (P<0.0001). Training with one data set and testing with another demonstrated stability between data sets. DRS, MMSE, and ADAS-Cog correlated better than AVLT with whole brain grey matter changes associated with AD. This result underscores their utility for screening and tracking disease. RVR offers a novel way to measure interactions between structural changes and neuropsychological tests beyond that of univariate methods. In clinical practice, we envision using RVR to aid in diagnosis and predict clinical outcome.

The role of territory choice mate choice and arrival date on breeding success in the Savi's warbler (Locustella luscinioides)

We investigated how territory quality, settlement date and morphometry affected several components of yearly breeding success of a Swiss population of Savi's Warblers Locustella luscinioides. Territories occupied by males differed from unoccupied sites of similar size and location by having higher and denser reeds, a more extensive straw litter, and a thicker cover of dead sedge leaves. Territories with these characteristics were the ones first chosen by males upon spring arrival. These males, however, did not differ in morphometry from those that arrived later. Availability of suitable nesting sites; rather than food availability, appears to be an important choice criterion for territories. Early arriving males had higher breeding success than late males because of a higher mating success and more successful clutches. The positive correlation between male breeding success and territory quality was thus mediated through their common dependence on occupancy date. Female breeding success decreased with the date of first-clutch laying, mainly because late-nesting females fledged fewer broods. Breeding success in either sex did not correlate with morphometry. Our results provide clear support for territory choice by males, but not for mate or territory choice by females, and show the crucial role played by individual settlement date on many aspects of the breeding cycle of both sexes. We propose a lottery model of mate choice. arriving females obtain the best available territories even without choosing mates or territories; since males occupy territories sequentially and in order of decreasing quality, the few unpaired males available at any moment also occupy the best available territories.

Dèficits neuromotors en trastorns de personalitat de l'espectre esquizofrènic : Una visió neuro-anatòmica

Aquest estudi pretén aprofundir, mitjançant tècniques de neuroimatge, en la cerca de diferències volumètriques, tant en volum de substància gris com blanca, que presenten els pacients de trastorns de personalitat esquizoide i esquizotípic amb relació amb un grup control.

MP2RAGE, a self bias-field corrected sequence for improved segmentation and T1-mapping at high field.

The large spatial inhomogeneity in transmit B(1) field (B(1)(+)) observable in human MR images at high static magnetic fields (B(0)) severely impairs image quality. To overcome this effect in brain T(1)-weighted images, the MPRAGE sequence was modified to generate two different images at different inversion times, MP2RAGE. By combining the two images in a novel fashion, it was possible to create T(1)-weighted images where the result image was free of proton density contrast, T(2) contrast, reception bias field, and, to first order, transmit field inhomogeneity. MP2RAGE sequence parameters were optimized using Bloch equations to maximize contrast-to-noise ratio per unit of time between brain tissues and minimize the effect of B(1)(+) variations through space. Images of high anatomical quality and excellent brain tissue differentiation suitable for applications such as segmentation and voxel-based morphometry were obtained at 3 and 7 T. From such T(1)-weighted images, acquired within 12 min, high-resolution 3D T(1) maps were routinely calculated at 7 T with sub-millimeter voxel resolution (0.65-0.85 mm isotropic). T(1) maps were validated in phantom experiments. In humans, the T(1) values obtained at 7 T were 1.15+/-0.06 s for white matter (WM) and 1.92+/-0.16 s for grey matter (GM), in good agreement with literature values obtained at lower spatial resolution. At 3 T, where whole-brain acquisitions with 1 mm isotropic voxels were acquired in 8 min, the T(1) values obtained (0.81+/-0.03 s for WM and 1.35+/-0.05 for GM) were once again found to be in very good agreement with values in the literature.

Multiparametric brainstem segmentation using a modified multivariate mixture of Gaussians

The human brainstem is a densely packed, complex but highly organised structure. It not only serves as a conduit for long projecting axons conveying motor and sensory information, but also is the location of multiple primary nuclei that control or modulate a vast array of functions, including homeostasis, consciousness, locomotion, and reflexive and emotive behaviours. Despite its importance, both in understanding normal brain function as well as neurodegenerative processes, it remains a sparsely studied structure in the neuroimaging literature. In part, this is due to the difficulties in imaging the internal architecture of the brainstem in vivo in a reliable and repeatable fashion. A modified multivariate mixture of Gaussians (mmMoG) was applied to the problem of multichannel tissue segmentation. By using quantitative magnetisation transfer and proton density maps acquired at 3 T with 0.8 mm isotropic resolution, tissue probability maps for four distinct tissue classes within the human brainstem were created. These were compared against an ex vivo fixated human brain, imaged at 0.5 mm, with excellent anatomical correspondence. These probability maps were used within SPM8 to create accurate individual subject segmentations, which were then used for further quantitative analysis. As an example, brainstem asymmetries were assessed across 34 right-handed individuals using voxel based morphometry (VBM) and tensor based morphometry (TBM), demonstrating highly significant differences within localised regions that corresponded to motor and vocalisation networks. This method may have important implications for future research into MRI biomarkers of pre-clinical neurodegenerative diseases such as Parkinson's disease.

The role of soil in vegetated gravelly river braid plains: more than just a passive response?

This paper reviews the role of alluvial soils in vegetated gravelly river braid plains. When considering decadal time scales of river evolution, we argue that it becomes vital to consider soil development as an emergent property of the developing ecosystem. Soil processes have been relatively overlooked in accounts of the interactions between braided river processes and vegetation, although soils have been observed on vegetated fluvial landforms. We hypothesise that soil development plays a major role in the transition (speed and pathway) from a fresh sediment deposit to a vegetated soil-covered landform. Disturbance (erosion and/or deposition), vertical sediment structure (process history), vegetation succession, biological activity and water table fluctuation are seen as the main controls on early alluvial soil evolution. Erosion and deposition processes may not only act as soil disturbing agents, but also as suppliers of ecosystem resources, because of their role in delivering and changing access (e.g. through avulsion) to fluxes of water, fine sediments and organic matter. In turn, the associated initial ecosystem may influence further fluvial landform development, such as through the trapping of fine-grained sediments (e.g. sand) by the engineering action of vegetation and the deposit stabilisation by the developing above and belowground biomass. This may create a strong feedback between geomorphological processes, vegetation succession and soil evolution which we summarise in a conceptual model. We illustrate this model by an example from the Allondon River (CH) and identify the research questions that follow.