Quality control, validation and user feedback of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS)

The quality control, validation and verification of the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) are described. EFAS is designed as a flood early warning system at pan-European scale, to complement national systems and provide flood warnings more than 2 days before a flood. On average 20–30 alerts per year are sent out to the EFAS partner network which consists of 24 National hydrological authorities responsible for transnational river basins. Quality control of the system includes the evaluation of the hits, misses and false alarms, showing that EFAS has more than 50% of the time hits. Furthermore, the skills of both the meteorological as well as the hydrological forecasts are evaluated, and are included here for a 10-year period. Next, end-user needs and feedback are systematically analysed. Suggested improvements, such as real-time river discharge updating, are currently implemented.

Calibration of structure in a distributed forecasting model for a semiarid flash flood: dynamic surface storage and channel roughness

Flash floods pose a significant danger for life and property. Unfortunately, in arid and semiarid environment the runoff generation shows a complex non-linear behavior with a strong spatial and temporal non-uniformity. As a result, the predictions made by physically-based simulations in semiarid areas are subject to great uncertainty, and a failure in the predictive behavior of existing models is common. Thus better descriptions of physical processes at the watershed scale need to be incorporated into the hydrological model structures. For example, terrain relief has been systematically considered static in flood modelling at the watershed scale. Here, we show that the integrated effect of small distributed relief variations originated through concurrent hydrological processes within a storm event was significant on the watershed scale hydrograph. We model these observations by introducing dynamic formulations of two relief-related parameters at diverse scales: maximum depression storage, and roughness coefficient in channels. In the final (a posteriori) model structure these parameters are allowed to be both time-constant or time-varying. The case under study is a convective storm in a semiarid Mediterranean watershed with ephemeral channels and high agricultural pressures (the Rambla del Albujón watershed; 556 km 2 ), which showed a complex multi-peak response. First, to obtain quasi-sensible simulations in the (a priori) model with time-constant relief-related parameters, a spatially distributed parameterization was strictly required. Second, a generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) inference applied to the improved model structure, and conditioned to observed nested hydrographs, showed that accounting for dynamic relief-related parameters led to improved simulations. The discussion is finally broadened by considering the use of the calibrated model both to analyze the sensitivity of the watershed to storm motion and to attempt the flood forecasting of a stratiform event with highly different behavior.

Improving flood forecasts for better flood preparedness in the UK (and beyond)

This winter (2013/14) coastal storms and an unprecedented amount of rainfall led to significant and widespread flooding across the southern UK. Despite much criticism and blame surrounding the flood events, the Flood Forecasting Centre, a recent development in national-level flood forecasting capabilities for the government and emergency response communities, has received considerable praise. Here we consider how scientific developments and organisational change have led to improvements in the forecasting and flood preparedness seen in this winter's flooding. Although such improvements are admirable, there are many technical and communication challenges that remain for probabilistic flood forecasts to achieve their full potential.

Efficient incorporation of channel cross-section geometry uncertainty into regional and global scale flood inundation models

This paper investigates the challenge of representing structural differences in river channel cross-section geometry for regional to global scale river hydraulic models and the effect this can have on simulations of wave dynamics. Classically, channel geometry is defined using data, yet at larger scales the necessary information and model structures do not exist to take this approach. We therefore propose a fundamentally different approach where the structural uncertainty in channel geometry is represented using a simple parameterization, which could then be estimated through calibration or data assimilation. This paper first outlines the development of a computationally efficient numerical scheme to represent generalised channel shapes using a single parameter, which is then validated using a simple straight channel test case and shown to predict wetted perimeter to within 2% for the channels tested. An application to the River Severn, UK is also presented, along with an analysis of model sensitivity to channel shape, depth and friction. The channel shape parameter was shown to improve model simulations of river level, particularly for more physically plausible channel roughness and depth parameter ranges. Calibrating channel Manning’s coefficient in a rectangular channel provided similar water level simulation accuracy in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency to a model where friction and shape or depth were calibrated. However, the calibrated Manning coefficient in the rectangular channel model was ~2/3 greater than the likely physically realistic value for this reach and this erroneously slowed wave propagation times through the reach by several hours. Therefore, for large scale models applied in data sparse areas, calibrating channel depth and/or shape may be preferable to assuming a rectangular geometry and calibrating friction alone.

The potential of flood forecasting using a variable-resolution global Digital Terrain Model and flood extents from Synthetic Aperture Radar images

A basic data requirement of a river flood inundation model is a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) of the reach being studied. The scale at which modeling is required determines the accuracy required of the DTM. For modeling floods in urban areas, a high resolution DTM such as that produced by airborne LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) is most useful, and large parts of many developed countries have now been mapped using LiDAR. In remoter areas, it is possible to model flooding on a larger scale using a lower resolution DTM, and in the near future the DTM of choice is likely to be that derived from the TanDEM-X Digital Elevation Model (DEM). A variable-resolution global DTM obtained by combining existing high and low resolution data sets would be useful for modeling flood water dynamics globally, at high resolution wherever possible and at lower resolution over larger rivers in remote areas. A further important data resource used in flood modeling is the flood extent, commonly derived from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images. Flood extents become more useful if they are intersected with the DTM, when water level observations (WLOs) at the flood boundary can be estimated at various points along the river reach. To illustrate the utility of such a global DTM, two examples of recent research involving WLOs at opposite ends of the spatial scale are discussed. The first requires high resolution spatial data, and involves the assimilation of WLOs from a real sequence of high resolution SAR images into a flood model to update the model state with observations over time, and to estimate river discharge and model parameters, including river bathymetry and friction. The results indicate the feasibility of such an Earth Observation-based flood forecasting system. The second example is at a larger scale, and uses SAR-derived WLOs to improve the lower-resolution TanDEM-X DEM in the area covered by the flood extents. The resulting reduction in random height error is significant.

Aeromonas detection and their toxins from drinking water from reservoirs and drinking fountains

Aeromonads are inhabitants of aquatic ecosystems and are described as being involved in intestinal disturbances and other infections. A total of 200 drinking water samples from domestic and public reservoirs and drinking fountains located in Sao Paulo (Brazil), were analyzed for the presence of Aeromonas. Samples were concentrated by membrane filtration and enriched in APW. ADA medium was used for Aeromonas isolation and colonies were confirmed by biochemical characterization. Strains isolated were tested for hemolysin and toxin production. Aeromonas was detected in 12 samples (6.0%). Aeromonas strains (96) were isolated and identified as: A. caviae (41.7%), A. hydrophila (15.7%), A. allosacharophila (10.4%), A. schubertii (1.0%) and Aeromonas spp. (31.2%). The results revealed that 70% of A. caviare, 66.7% of A. hydrophila, 80% of A. allosacharophila and 46.6% of Aeromonas spp. were hemolytic. The assay for checking production of toxins showed that 17.5% of A. caviae, 73.3% of A. hydrophila, 60% of A. allosacharophila, 100% of A. schubertii, and 33.3% of Aeromonas spp. were able to produce toxins. The results demonstrated the pathogenic potential of Aeromonas, indicating that the presence of this emerging pathogen in water systems is a public health concern.

Atlantic Salmon Habitat and Dams in Maine

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Electric Power Service Areas, Energy Lines, and Hydroelectric Dams of Maine

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Population Density and Dams in Maine

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Migratory and Carnivorous Birds in Brazil: Reservoirs for Anaplasma and Ehrlichia Species?

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Changes in abiotic characteristics of water in the Paranapanema River and three lateral lagoons at mouth zone of the Jurumirim Reservoir during the flood period, São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Heat budgets, thermal structure and dissolved oxygen in Brazilian reservoirs

A comparison of the thermal regime and oxygen distribution patterns of some Brazilian reservoirs was made. A strong latitudinal dependence of surface temperature, annual mean and annual range was found. Except for Tucurui Reservoir, a reservoir of the Equatorial zone, the lowest surface temperature of the year in the other compared reservoirs was observed from June to August while the highest extended from October to February. The decreasing trend of annual mean temperatures and thermal ranges was due to the increasing seasonal variability of insolation with the latitude. A positive relationship between the increase on thermal surface-bottom differences and the depth of water column was found for reservoirs of similar latitudes. A long thermal stratification (around four months) was evidenced in the lacustrine zone of reservoirs with a residence time higher than 40 days. Low fluctuation (<2%) of the annual variability of heat contents was observed for the Tucurui Reservoir, while in das Garcas Reservoir a manmade lake located in the frontier between tropical and temperate regions, the annual coefficient of variation attained 13%. Concerning the heat budgets, the value for the Tucurui Reservoir was two times higher than in das Garcas Reservoir. Both the morphometric and climatological factors affected the heat contents of the two compared reservoirs. In deep eutrophic reservoirs, a significant reduction on the oxygen concentrations in the hypolimnetic zone was frequently observed. In some oligotrophic stratified reservoirs, a decrease on oxygen with depth occurred when the temperature of the hypolimnion was higher than 20 degrees C and caused a biochemical oxygen demand. In das Garcas Reservoir, the actual oxygen deficits ranged from 0.40 to 1.52 mg.O-2.cm(-2) and appear to be linked to oxygen consumption after the senescence of Microcystis aeruginosa populations in the spring. But, other factors such as the allochthonous loads of organic matter also had an important role on the oxygen balance of das Garcas Reservoir.