Identifying Individual and Group Effects in the Presence of Sorting: A Neighborhood Effects Application

Researchers have long recognized that the non-random sorting of individuals into groups generates correlation between individual and group attributes that is likely to bias naive estimates of both individual and group effects. This paper proposes a non-parametric strategy for identifying these effects in a model that allows for both individual and group unobservables, applying this strategy to the estimation of neighborhood effects on labor market outcomes. The first part of this strategy is guided by a robust feature of the equilibrium in the canonical vertical sorting model of Epple and Platt (1998), that there is a monotonic relationship between neighborhood housing prices and neighborhood quality. This implies that under certain conditions a non- parametric function of neighborhood housing prices serves as a suitable control function for the neighborhood unobservable in the labor market outcome regression. The second part of the proposed strategy uses aggregation to develop suitable instruments for both exogenous and endogenous group attributes. Instrumenting for each individual's observed neighborhood attributes with the average neighborhood attributes of a set of observationally identical individuals eliminates the portion of the variation in neighborhood attributes due to sorting on unobserved individual attributes. The neighborhood effects application is based on confidential microdata from the 1990 Decennial Census for the Boston MSA. The results imply that the direct effects of geographic proximity to jobs, neighborhood poverty rates, and average neighborhood education are substantially larger than the conditional correlations identified using OLS, although the net effect of neighborhood quality on labor market outcomes remains small. These findings are robust across a wide variety of specifications and robustness checks.

This Was Not on the Syllabus!: An Examination of First-Year Urban Teachers' Self-Efficacy

Many first-year teachers find it difficult to reach the needs of all their students in part, because they feel their college coursework left them ill-prepared for the complexity they face in the classroom. This is particularly true among urban teachers who often face crowded classrooms of diverse students with a wide range of instructional needs. This study is a comparative case study of two University of Connecticut graduates during their first year teaching in urban schools. Using mixed-methods, the study draws on interviews, questionnaires, and videotape data shared as a part of a monthly teacher study group of similar graduates. I also draw on group conversations in which teachers discussed their ability to reach the needs of all of their students as this was related to their preservice coursework. My findings suggest that many first-year teachers feel university coursework failed to help them. One teacher felt it did not help her at all, while the other felt it helped her but she still could not meet all of her students' needs. Many first-year, urban teachers do not feel confident in the classroom as a result of their preparation from coursework. With this lack in confidence, the teachers may be more likely to leave their urban position, and this may contribute to the high turnover of teachers in urban placements.

Nonpoint Pollution Control: Inducing First-best Outcomes through the Use of Threats

In this paper we develop a simple economic model to analyze the use of a policy that combines a voluntary approach to controlling nonpoint-source pollution with a background threat of an ambient tax if the voluntary approach is unsuccessful in meeting a pre-specified environmental goal. We first consider the case where the policy is applied to a single farmer, and then extend the analysis to the case where the policy is applied to a group of farmers. We show that in either case such a policy can induce cost-minimizing abatement without the need for farm-specific information. In this sense, the combined policy approach is not only more effective in protecting environmental quality than a pure voluntary approach (which does not ensure that water quality goals are met) but also less costly than a pure ambient tax approach (since it entails lower information costs). However, when the policy is applied to a group of farmers, we show that there is a potential tradeoff in the design of the policy. In this context, lowering the cutoff level of pollution used for determining total tax payments increases the likely effectiveness of the combined approach but also increases the potential for free riding. By setting the cutoff level equal to the target level of pollution, the regulator can eliminate free riding and ensure that cost-minimizing abatement is the unique Nash equilibrium under which the target is met voluntarily. However, this cutoff level also ensures that zero voluntary abatement is a Nash equilibrium. In addition, with this cutoff level the equilibrium under which the target is met voluntarily will not strictly dominate the equilibrium under which it is not. We show that all results still hold if the background threat instead takes the form of reducing government subsidies if a pre-specified environmental goal is not met.

Sociodemographic characteristics as predictors of successful smoking cessation among a group of Hispanic Spanish speaking smokers

Few studies have examined predictors of smoking abstinence among Hispanic groups. The purpose of this dissertation was to examine the relations of sociodemographic characteristics and smoking related factors with smoking abstinence among a group of Hispanic Spanish speaking smokers. This study utilized previously collected data from Hispanic Spanish-speaking smokers (N = 246) who participated in a study entitled Smoking Cessation Services for Hispanic Smokers in Texas. ^ The first study examined sociodemographic characteristics and smoking related mechanisms that predicted smoking abstinence among this group. Two of the characteristics were related to smoking abstinence, marital status and acculturation level. Being unmarried increased the likelihood of being abstinent at the 12 week assessment (OR = 1.80). Those in the high acculturation group were twice as likely to be abstinent (OR = 2.24). Of the smoking related mechanisms, those with higher positive reinforcement expectancies were less likely to be abstinent (OR = .86), as were those with a higher level of affiliative attachment (OR = .86), a higher level of craving (OR = .78) and a higher tolerance to the effect of smoking (OR = .74). The second study was to examine the relationship of objective measures of socioeconomic status (SES) (income, education, or employment) with smoking abstinence among this group. This study also compared the relationship of a subjective measure of SES (Social Status Ladder) to smoking abstinence. None of the objective measures of SES were related to smoking abstinence at the 12 week assessment. The subjective measure of SES did predict smoking abstinence (OR = 1.9) indicting that those that rated themselves ≤4 on the SES scale were more likely to be abstinent. ^ Although this group was recruited using various methods across the state of Texas, the fact that they preferred to interact with the counselor in Spanish may limit the study findings. The results of this study highlight the need for research to examine specific subgroups of people and understand the special circumstances that influence their health behaviors. Furthering our knowledge of the relations between sociodemographic characteristics and smoking cessation could lead to interventions that reduce disparities in smoking cessation. ^

Clinical decisions related to CBC screening of asymptomatic full-term infants at risk for group B streptococcus disease

Objective. Although complete blood count (CBC) changes occur with the development of clinical sepsis in newborns, the CBC has not been reported to be a sensitive predictor of sepsis in asymptomatic full-term newborn infants, nor has it been reported to be related to risk factors for sepsis or clinical decisions. The objective of this study was to evaluate the relationship between the WBC/I:T (immature:total neutrophil) ratio and maternal group B streptococcal (GBS) risk factors (rupture of membranes ≥18 hours, maternal temperature ≥100.4°F, maternal age ≤20 years, previous infant with invasive GBS disease, maternal GBS bacteriuria, and black ethnicity); and to evaluate the relationship between the WBC/I:T ratios and providers' clinical decisions (observe versus repeat the CBC or complete sepsis evaluation) in the asymptomatic full-term newborn at risk for early-onset GBS sepsis. ^ Methods. Medical records of infants admitted to the well baby nursery at a tertiary care teaching hospital in Houston, TX between 1/1/99 and 12/31/00 whose gestational ages were ≥35 weeks; who had mothers with GBS positive or unknown culture status and inadequate intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis; and who had screening CBCs performed in the first 30 hours of life because of GBS risk were reviewed (n = 412). Demographic information, maternal GBS risk factors, CBC results, clinical decisions, and rationales for clinical decisions were collected. ^ Results. With the exception of black ethnicity (p = .0000, odds ratio = 0.213), no statistically significant differences in risk factors between infants with normal and abnormal WBC counts or normal and abnormal I:T ratios were found. Infants with abnormal WBCs had a significantly higher likelihood of having a CBC repeated (p = 0.002 for WBC). Providers documented the CBC result in the rationale for clinical decisions in 62% of the cases. ^ Conclusion. The CBC results were not related to maternal risk factors for GBS except for ethnicity. Black infants had significantly lower WBC levels than infants of other ethnicities, although this difference was clinically insignificant. Infants with abnormal WBCs had a significantly higher likelihood of undergoing repeat CBCs but not sepsis evaluations. Provider rationale was difficult to evaluate due to insufficient documentation. The screening CBC result did not impact the clinicians' decisions to initiate sepsis evaluations in this population. ^

Factors that affect non-adherence to first line antiretroviral medications among HIV infected children and adolescents in Botswana

The aims of the study were to determine the prevalence of and factors that affect non-adherence to first line antiretroviral (ARV) medications among HIV infected children and adolescents in Botswana. The study used secondary data from Botswana-Baylor Children's Clinical Center of Excellence for the period of June 2008 to February 10th, 2010. The study design was cross-sectional and case-comparison between non-adherent and adherent participants was used to examine the effects of socio-demographic and medication factors on non-adherence to ARV medications. A case was defined as non-adherent child with adherence level < 95% based on pill count and measurement of liquid formulations. The comparison group consisted of children with adherence levels ≥95%.^ A total of 842 participants met the eligibility criteria for determination of the prevalence of non-adherence and 338 participants (169 cases and 169 individuals) were used in the analysis to estimate the effects of factors on non-adherence. ^ Univariate and multivariable logistic regression were used to estimate the association between non-adherence (outcome) and socio-demographic and medication factors (exposures). The prevalence of non-adherence for participants on first line ARV medications was 20.0% (169/842).^ Increase in age (OR (95% CI): 1.10 (1.04–1.17) p = 0.001) was associated with nonadherence, while increase in number of caregivers (OR (95% CI): 0.72 (0.56–0.93) p = 0.01) and increase in number of monthly visits (OR (95% CI): 0.92 (0.86–0.99) p = 0.02), were associated with good adherence in both the unadjusted and the adjusted models. For the categorical variables, having more than two caregivers (OR (95% CI): 0.66 (0.28–0.84), p = 0.002) was associated with good adherence even in the adjusted model. ^ Conclusion. The prevalence of non-adherence to antiretroviral medicines among the study population was estimated to be 20.0%. In previous studies, adherence levels of ≥ 95% have been associated with better clinical outcomes and suppression of virus to prevent development of resistance. Older age, fewer numbers of caregivers and fewer monthly visits were associated with non-adherence. Strategies to improve and sustain adherence especially among older children are needed. The role of caregivers and social support should be investigated further.^

Cardiovascular diseases risk factors during the first year of life

The pattern of change in cardiovascular risk factors, blood pressure (SBP and DBP) and plasma total cholesterol (TC), over time, their tracking and their relation to anthropometric measurements during the first year of life were investigated. Also, the effect of breast feeding on TC and the relationship of blood pressure measurements and family history of CVD risk factors were examined. One hundred five newborn term, healthy infants who were seen at a pediatric clinic in The Woodlands, Texas were followed longitudinally from 2 weeks to 1 year of age. TC, blood pressure, weight and length of the infants were measured at age 2 weeks, and again at 2, 4, 6, 9 and 12 months. In addition, family history, maternal and paternal, of CVD risk factors was obtained. Data analyses included only 40 infants who completed one year of follow up.^ At 2 weeks of age, the median value for TC was 23 mg/dl higher for females than for males. This difference disappeared as infants got older. For males, most of the increase in TC median levels, from 114 to 137 mg/dl, occurred between the ages of 2 weeks and 2 months, whereas for the female group, TC levels increased moderately, about 10 mg/dl, between 9 and 12 months of age. Tracking of TC was examined by using Spearman's correlation analysis. There were strong correlations between measurements taken as early as 2 weeks of age with later measurements. These correlations were stronger and more significant for males than for females (for males, r varied between 0.51 to 0.70, whereas for females, r varied between 0.11 to 0.70). The association of body measurements with TC is no more than modest and is closer for female infants than for male infants. Analysis, also, showed that infants who received breast milk had a TC mean value 47 mg/dl higher than that for infants who received formula milk only during the period of breast feeding and this difference disappeared by age 12 months.^ In both genders, most of the increase in blood pressure (about 10-15 mmHg in both SBP and DBP) occurred during the first 4 months of life. Most of the increase for male infants occurred during the first 2 months of life, while for females, the increase in SBP and DBP was between the age of 2 and 4 months. Neither SBP nor DBP track well during the first year of life and most of the correlations between measurements at different ages were not significant for either gender. The cross-sectional relationship of blood pressure measurements and selected body measurements was assessed. For females, only at age of 12 months did DBP have positive and significant correlations with weight, length and Quetelet index (r = 0.57, 0.60 and 0.57, respectively). There were no significant correlations between blood pressure and body measurements for males. Finally, analysis showed that maternal history of CV risk factors was significantly related to SBP in the female infant group, but not for males. For DBP, neither maternal nor paternal history was related. ^

Robust effect sizes and their confidence intervals for group difference between trajectories in hierarchical linear growth model

Hierarchical linear growth model (HLGM), as a flexible and powerful analytic method, has played an increased important role in psychology, public health and medical sciences in recent decades. Mostly, researchers who conduct HLGM are interested in the treatment effect on individual trajectories, which can be indicated by the cross-level interaction effects. However, the statistical hypothesis test for the effect of cross-level interaction in HLGM only show us whether there is a significant group difference in the average rate of change, rate of acceleration or higher polynomial effect; it fails to convey information about the magnitude of the difference between the group trajectories at specific time point. Thus, reporting and interpreting effect sizes have been increased emphases in HLGM in recent years, due to the limitations and increased criticisms for statistical hypothesis testing. However, most researchers fail to report these model-implied effect sizes for group trajectories comparison and their corresponding confidence intervals in HLGM analysis, since lack of appropriate and standard functions to estimate effect sizes associated with the model-implied difference between grouping trajectories in HLGM, and also lack of computing packages in the popular statistical software to automatically calculate them. ^ The present project is the first to establish the appropriate computing functions to assess the standard difference between grouping trajectories in HLGM. We proposed the two functions to estimate effect sizes on model-based grouping trajectories difference at specific time, we also suggested the robust effect sizes to reduce the bias of estimated effect sizes. Then, we applied the proposed functions to estimate the population effect sizes (d ) and robust effect sizes (du) on the cross-level interaction in HLGM by using the three simulated datasets, and also we compared the three methods of constructing confidence intervals around d and du recommended the best one for application. At the end, we constructed 95% confidence intervals with the suitable method for the effect sizes what we obtained with the three simulated datasets. ^ The effect sizes between grouping trajectories for the three simulated longitudinal datasets indicated that even though the statistical hypothesis test shows no significant difference between grouping trajectories, effect sizes between these grouping trajectories can still be large at some time points. Therefore, effect sizes between grouping trajectories in HLGM analysis provide us additional and meaningful information to assess group effect on individual trajectories. In addition, we also compared the three methods to construct 95% confident intervals around corresponding effect sizes in this project, which handled with the uncertainty of effect sizes to population parameter. We suggested the noncentral t-distribution based method when the assumptions held, and the bootstrap bias-corrected and accelerated method when the assumptions are not met.^

Estimation of the normal boiling point of organic compounds via group contributions

The normal boiling point is a fundamental thermo-physical property, which is important in describing the transition between the vapor and liquid phases. Reliable method which can predict it is of great importance, especially for compounds where there are no experimental data available. In this work, an improved group contribution method, which is second order method, for determination of the normal boiling point of organic compounds based on the Joback functional first order groups with some changes and added some other functional groups was developed by using experimental data for 632 organic components. It could distinguish most of structural isomerism and stereoisomerism, which including the structural, cis- and trans- isomers of organic compounds. First and second order contributions for hydrocarbons and hydrocarbon derivatives containing carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, sulfur, fluorine, chlorine and bromine atoms, are given. The fminsearch mathematical approach from MATLAB software is used in this study to select an optimal collection of functional groups (65 functional groups) and subsequently to develop the model. This is a direct search method that uses the simplex search method of Lagarias et al. The results of the new method are compared to the several currently used methods and are shown to be far more accurate and reliable. The average absolute deviation of normal boiling point predictions for 632 organic compounds is 4.4350 K; and the average absolute relative deviation is 1.1047 %, which is of adequate accuracy for many practical applications.

Rhenium and platinum-group element concentrations and Os isotope data for Philippine Sea Plate basalts from DSDP Legs 31, 58, and 59

Platinum-group elements (PGE), rhenium and osmium isotope data are reported for basalts from Deep Sea Drilling Project cores in the Philippine Sea Plate (PSP). Lithophile trace element and isotopic characteristics indicate a range of source components including DMM, EMII and subduction-enriched mantle. MORB-like basalts possess smooth, inclined chondrite-normalised PGE patterns with high palladium-PGE/iridium-PGE ratios, consistent with previously published data for MORB, and with the inferred compatibility of PGE. In contrast, while basalts with EMII-type lithophile element chemistry possess high Pt/Ir ratios, many have much lower Pd/Ir and unusually high Ru/Ir of >10. Similarly, back-arc samples from the Shikoku and Parece-Vela basins have very high Ru/Ir ratios (>30) and Pd/Ir as low as 1.1. Such extreme Pd/Ir and Ru/Ir ratios have not been previously reported in mafic volcanic suites and cannot be easily explained by variable degrees of melting, fractional crystallisation or by a shallow-level process such as alteration or degassing. The data appear most consistent with sampling of at least two mantle components with distinct PGE compositions. Peridotites with the required PGE characteristics (i.e. low Pd, but relatively high Ru and Re) have not been documented in oceanic mantle, but have been found in sub-continental mantle lithosphere and are the result of considerable melt depletion and selective metasomatic enrichment (mainly Re). The long-term presence of subduction zones surrounding the Philippine Sea Plate makes this a prime location for metasomatic enrichment of mantle, either through fluid enrichment or infiltration by small melt fractions. The Re-Os isotope data are difficult to interpret with confidence due to low Os concentrations in most samples and the uncertainty in sample age. Data for Site 444A (Shikoku Basin) give an age of 17.7+/-1.3 Ma (MSWD = 14), consistent with the proposed age of basement at the site and thus provides the first robust radiometric age for these samples. The initial 187Os/188Os of 0.1298+/-0.0069 is consistent with global MORB, and precludes significant metasomatic enrichment of Os by radiogenic slab fluids. Re-Os data for Sites 446A (two suites, Daito Basin) and 450 (Parece-Vela Basin) indicate ages of 73, 68 and 43 Ma, which are respectively, 30, 17 and >12 Ma older than previously proposed ages. The alkalic and tholeiitic suites from Site 446A define regression lines with different 187Os/188Osinitial (0.170+/-0.033 and 0.112+/-0.024, respectively) which could perhaps be explained by preferential sampling of interstitial, metasomatic sulphides (with higher time-integrated Re/Os ratios) by smaller percentage alkalic melts. One sample, with lithophile elements indistinguishable from MORB, is Os-rich (146 pg/g) and has an initial 187Os/188Os of 0.1594, which is at the upper limit of the accepted OIB range. Given the Os-rich nature of this sample and the lack of evidence for subduction or recycled crust inputs, this osmium isotope ratio likely reflects heterogeneity in the DMM. The dataset as a whole is a striking indication of the possible PGE and Os isotope variability within a region of mantle that has experienced a complex tectonic history.

Geochemical analysis of nine sections from the Nama Group, Namibia

The first appearance of skeletal metazoans in the late Ediacaran (~550 million years ago; Ma) has been linked to the widespread development of oxygenated oceanic conditions, but a precise spatial and temporal reconstruction of their evolution has not been resolved. Here we consider the evolution of ocean chemistry from ~550 to ~541 Ma across shelf-to-basin transects in the Zaris and Witputs Sub-Basins of the Nama Group, Namibia. New carbon isotope data capture the final stages of the Shuram/Wonoka deep negative C-isotope excursion, and these are complemented with a reconstruction of water column redox dynamics utilising Fe-S-C systematics and the distribution of skeletal and soft-bodied metazoans. Combined, these inter-basinal datasets provide insight into the potential role of ocean redox chemistry during this pivotal interval of major biological innovation. The strongly negative d13C values in the lower parts of the sections reflect both a secular, global change in the C-isotopic composition of Ediacaran seawater, as well as the influence of 'local' basinal effects as shown by the most negative d13C values occurring in the transition from distal to proximal ramp settings. Critical, though, is that the transition to positive d13C values postdates the appearance of calcified metazoans, indicating that the onset of biomineralization did not occur under post-excursion conditions. Significantly, we find that anoxic and ferruginous deeper water column conditions were prevalent during and after the transition to positive d13C that marks the end of the Shuram/Wonoka excursion. Thus, if the C isotope trend reflects the transition to global-scale oxygenation in the aftermath of the oxidation of a large-scale, isotopically light organic carbon pool, it was not sufficient to fully oxygenate the deep ocean. Both sub-basins reveal highly dynamic redox structures, where shallow, inner ramp settings experienced transient oxygenation. Anoxic conditions were caused either by episodic upwelling of deeper anoxic waters or higher rates of productivity. These settings supported short-lived and monospecific skeletal metazoan communities. By contrast, microbial (thrombolite) reefs, found in deeper inner- and mid-ramp settings, supported more biodiverse communities with complex ecologies and large skeletal metazoans. These long-lived reef communities, as well as Ediacaran soft-bodied biotas, are found particularly within transgressive systems, where oxygenation was persistent. We suggest that a mid-ramp position enabled physical ventilation mechanisms for shallow water column oxygenation to operate during flooding and transgressive sea-level rise. Our data support a prominent role for oxygen, and for stable oxygenated conditions in particular, in controlling both the distribution and ecology of Ediacaran skeletal metazoan communities.

Platinum-group, major, and trace element abundances in ODP Leg 183 basalts

Seventeen basalts from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 183 to the Kerguelen Plateau (KP) were analyzed for the platinum-group elements (PGEs: Ir, Ru, Rh, Pt, and Pd), and 15 were analyzed for trace elements. Relative concentrations of the PGEs ranged from ~0.1 (Ir, Ru) to ~5 (Pt) times primitive mantle. These relatively high PGE abundances and fractionated patterns are not accounted for by the presence of sulfide minerals; there are only trace sulfides present in thin-section. Sulfur saturation models applied to the KP basalts suggest that the parental magmas may have never reached sulfide saturation, despite large degrees of partial melting (~30%) and fractional crystallization (~45%). First order approximations of the fractionation required to produce the KP basalts from an ~30% partial melt of a spinel peridotite were determined using the PELE program. The model was adapted to better fit the physical and chemical observations from the KP basalts, and requires an initial crystal fractionation stage of at least 30% olivine plus Cr-spinel (49:1), followed by magma replenishment and fractional crystallization (RFC) that included clinopyroxene, plagioclase, and titanomagnetite (15:9:1). The low Pd values ([Pd/Pt]_pm < 1.7) for these samples are not predicted by currently available Kd values. These Pd values are lowest in samples with relatively higher degrees of alteration as indicated by petrographic observations. Positive anomalies are a function of the behavior of the PGEs; they can be reproduced by Cr-spinel, and titanomagnetite crystallization, followed by titanomagnetite resorption during the final stages of crystallization. Our modeling shows that it is difficult to reproduce the PGE abundances by either depleted upper or even primitive mantle sources. Crustal contamination, while indicated at certain sites by the isotopic compositions of the basalts, appears to have had a minimal affect on the PGEs. The PGE abundances measured in the Kerguelen Plateau basalts are best modeled by melting a primitive mantle source to which was added up to 1% of outer core material, followed by fractional crystallization of the melt produced. This reproduces both the abundances and patterns of the PGEs in the Kerguelen Plateau basalts. An alternative model for outer core PGE abundances requires only 0.3% of outer core material to be mixed into the primitive mantle source. While our results are clearly model dependent, they indicate that an outer core component may be present in the Kerguelen plume source.

Steps Ahead in the Few-Group CRoss-Section Library Generation at the Pin Level

There exists an interest in performing pin-by-pin calculations coupled with thermal hydraulics so as to improve the accuracy of nuclear reactor analysis. In the framework of the EU NURISP project, INRNE and UPM have generated an experimental version of a few group diffusion cross sections library with discontinuity factors intended for VVER analysis at the pin level with the COBAYA3 code. The transport code APOLLO2 was used to perform the branching calculations. As a first proof of principle the library was created for fresh fuel and covers almost the full parameter space of steady state and transient conditions. The main objective is to test the calculation schemes and post-processing procedures, including multi-pin branching calculations. Two library options are being studied: one based on linear table interpolation and another one using a functional fitting of the cross sections. The libraries generated with APOLLO2 have been tested with the pin-by-pin diffusion model in COBAYA3 including discontinuity factors; first comparing 2D results against the APOLLO2 reference solutions and afterwards using the libraries to compute a 3D assembly problem coupled with a simplified thermal-hydraulic model.