901 resultados para Filter-rectify-filter-model


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The amount of water available is usually restricted, which leads to a situation where a complete understanding of the process, including water circulations and the influence of water components, is essential. The main aim of this thesis was to clarify the possibilities for the efficient use of residual peroxide by means of water circulation rearrangements. Rearranging water circulations and the reduction of water usage may cause new problems, such as metal induced peroxide decomposition that needs to be addressed. This thesis introduces theoretical methods of water circulations to combine two variables; effective utilization of residual peroxide and avoiding manganese in the alkaline peroxide bleaching stage. Results are mainly based on laboratory and mill site experiments concerning the utilization of residual peroxide. A simulation model (BALAS) was used to evaluate the manganese contents and residual peroxide doses. It was shown that with optimum recirculation of residual peroxide the brightness can be improved or chemical costs can be decreased. From the scientific perspective, it was also very important to discover that recycled peroxide was more effective pre-bleaching agent compared to fresh peroxide. This can be due to the organic acids i.e. per acetic acid in wash press filtrate that have been formed in alkaline bleaching stage. Even short retention time was adequate and the activation of residual peroxide using sodium hydroxide was not necessary. There are several possibilities for using residual peroxide in practice regarding bleaching. A typical modern mechanical pulping process line consist of defibering, screening, a disc filter, a bleach press, high consistency (HC) peroxide bleaching and a wash press. Furthermore there usually is not a particular medium consistency (MC) pre-bleaching stage that includes additional thickening equipment. The most advisable way to utilize residual peroxide in this kind of process is to recycle the wash press filtrate to the dilution of disc filter pulp (low MC pre-bleaching stage). An arrangement such as this would be beneficial in terms of the reduced convection of manganese to the alkaline bleaching stage. Manganese originates from wood material and will be removed to the water phase already in the early stages of the process. Recycling residual peroxide prior to the disc filter is not recommended because of low consistencies. Regarding water circulations, the novel point of view is that, it would be beneficial to divide water circulations into two sections and the critical location for the division is the disc filter. Both of these two sections have their own priority. Section one before the disc filter: manganese removal. Section two after the disc filter: brightening of pulp. This division can be carried out if the disc filter pulp is diluted only by wash press filtrate before the MC storage tower. The situation is even better if there is an additional press after the disc filter, which will improve the consistency of the pulp. This has a significant effect on the peroxide concentration in the MC pre-bleaching stage. In terms of manganese content, it is essential to avoid the use of disc filter filtrate in the bleach press and wash press showers. An additional cut-off press would also be beneficial for manganese removal. As a combination of higher initial brightness and lower manganese content, the typical brightness increase varies between approximately 0.5 and 1% ISO units after the alkaline peroxide bleaching stage. This improvement does not seem to be remarkable, but as it is generally known, the final brightness unit is the most expensive and difficult to achieve. The estimation of cost savings is not unambiguous. For example in GW/TMP mill case 0.6% ISO units higher final brightness gave 10% savings in the costs of bleaching chemicals. With an hypothetical 200 000 ton annual production, this means that the mill could save in the costs of bleaching chemicals more than 400 000 euros per year. In general, it can be said that there were no differences between the behavior of different types of processes (GW, PGW, TMP and BCTMP). The enhancement of recycling gave a similar response in all cases. However, we have to remember that the utilization of residual peroxide in older mills depends a great deal on the process equipment, the amount of water available and existing pipeline connections. In summary, it can be said that processes are individual and the same solutions cannot be applied to all cases.

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Ozonation tests with and without prior filtration by means of a 50 micron mesh cartridge filter were conducted with primary sanitary effluents. Filtration led to increased inactivation efficiencies with regard to total and thermotolerant coliforms but it did not seem to influence heterotrophic plate count (HPC) bacteria inactivation efficiencies significantly. Application of the Chick-Watson model to experimental data obtained in the situation of constant inactivation showed that the ozone dosage was more important to bacterial inactivation than the contact time with regard to the cases of thermotolerant coliform inactivation in filtered samples and HPC bacteria and total coliform inactivation in non-filtered samples.

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Stratospheric ozone can be measured accurately using a limb scatter remote sensing technique at the UV-visible spectral region of solar light. The advantages of this technique includes a good vertical resolution and a good daytime coverage of the measurements. In addition to ozone, UV-visible limb scatter measurements contain information about NO2, NO3, OClO, BrO and aerosols. There are currently several satellite instruments continuously scanning the atmosphere and measuring the UVvisible region of the spectrum, e.g., the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imager System (OSIRIS) launched on the Odin satellite in February 2001, and the Scanning Imaging Absorption SpectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) launched on Envisat in March 2002. Envisat also carries the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) instrument, which also measures limb-scattered sunlight under bright limb occultation conditions. These conditions occur during daytime occultation measurements. The global coverage of the satellite measurements is far better than any other ozone measurement technique, but still the measurements are sparse in the spatial domain. Measurements are also repeated relatively rarely over a certain area, and the composition of the Earth’s atmosphere changes dynamically. Assimilation methods are therefore needed in order to combine the information of the measurements with the atmospheric model. In recent years, the focus of assimilation algorithm research has turned towards filtering methods. The traditional Extended Kalman filter (EKF) method takes into account not only the uncertainty of the measurements, but also the uncertainty of the evolution model of the system. However, the computational cost of full blown EKF increases rapidly as the number of the model parameters increases. Therefore the EKF method cannot be applied directly to the stratospheric ozone assimilation problem. The work in this thesis is devoted to the development of inversion methods for satellite instruments and the development of assimilation methods used with atmospheric models.

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The topic of this thesis is the simulation of a combination of several control and data assimilation methods, meant to be used for controlling the quality of paper in a paper machine. Paper making is a very complex process and the information obtained from the web is sparse. A paper web scanner can only measure a zig zag path on the web. An assimilation method is needed to process estimates for Machine Direction (MD) and Cross Direction (CD) profiles of the web. Quality control is based on these measurements. There is an increasing need for intelligent methods to assist in data assimilation. The target of this thesis is to study how such intelligent assimilation methods are affecting paper web quality. This work is based on a paper web simulator, which has been developed in the TEKES funded MASI NoTes project. The simulator is a valuable tool in comparing different assimilation methods. The thesis contains the comparison of four different assimilation methods. These data assimilation methods are a first order Bayesian model estimator, an ARMA model based on a higher order Bayesian estimator, a Fourier transform based Kalman filter estimator and a simple block estimator. The last one can be considered to be close to current operational methods. From these methods Bayesian, ARMA and Kalman all seem to have advantages over the commercial one. The Kalman and ARMA estimators seems to be best in overall performance.

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In recent years, the network vulnerability to natural hazards has been noticed. Moreover, operating on the limits of the network transmission capabilities have resulted in major outages during the past decade. One of the reasons for operating on these limits is that the network has become outdated. Therefore, new technical solutions are studied that could provide more reliable and more energy efficient power distributionand also a better profitability for the network owner. It is the development and price of power electronics that have made the DC distribution an attractive alternative again. In this doctoral thesis, one type of a low-voltage DC distribution system is investigated. Morespecifically, it is studied which current technological solutions, used at the customer-end, could provide better power quality for the customer when compared with the current system. To study the effect of a DC network on the customer-end power quality, a bipolar DC network model is derived. The model can also be used to identify the supply parameters when the V/kW ratio is approximately known. Although the model provides knowledge of the average behavior, it is shown that the instantaneous DC voltage ripple should be limited. The guidelines to choose an appropriate capacitance value for the capacitor located at the input DC terminals of the customer-end are given. Also the structure of the customer-end is considered. A comparison between the most common solutions is made based on their cost, energy efficiency, and reliability. In the comparison, special attention is paid to the passive filtering solutions since the filter is considered a crucial element when the lifetime expenses are determined. It is found out that the filter topology most commonly used today, namely the LC filter, does not provide economical advantage over the hybrid filter structure. Finally, some of the typical control system solutions are introduced and their shortcomings are presented. As a solution to the customer-end voltage regulation problem, an observer-based control scheme is proposed. It is shown how different control system structures affect the performance. The performance meeting the requirements is achieved by using only one output measurement, when operating in a rigid network. Similar performance can be achieved in a weak grid by DC voltage measurement. An additional improvement can be achieved when an adaptive gain scheduling-based control is introduced. As a conclusion, the final power quality is determined by a sum of various factors, and the thesis provides the guidelines for designing the system that improves the power quality experienced by the customer.

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The control of coating layer properties is becoming increasingly important as a result of an emerging demand for novel coated paper-based products and an increasing popularity of new coating application methods. The governing mechanisms of microstructure formation dynamics during consolidation and drying are nevertheless, still poorly understood. Some of the difficulties encountered by experimental methods can be overcome by the utilisation of numerical modelling and simulation-based studies of the consolidation process. The objective of this study was to improve the fundamental understanding of pigment coating consolidation and structure formation mechanisms taking place on the microscopic level. Furthermore, it is aimed to relate the impact of process and suspension properties to the microstructure of the coating layer. A mathematical model based on a modified Stokesian dynamics particle simulation technique was developed and applied in several studies of consolidation-related phenomena. The model includes particle-particle and particle-boundary hydrodynamics, colloidal interactions, Born repulsion, and a steric repulsion model. The Brownian motion and a free surface model were incorporated to enable the specific investigation of consolidation and drying. Filter cake stability was simulated in various particle systems, and subjected to a range of base substrate absorption rates and system temperatures. The stability of the filter cake was primarily affected by the absorption rate and size of particles. Temperature was also shown to have an influence. The consolidation of polydisperse systems, with varying wet coating thicknesses, was studied using imposed pilot trial and model-based drying conditions. The results show that drying methods have a clear influence on the microstructure development, on small particle distributions in the coating layer and also on the mobility of particles during consolidation. It is concluded that colloidal properties can significantly impact coating layer shrinkage as well as the internal solids concentration profile. Visualisations of particle system development in time and comparison of systems at different conditions are useful in illustrating coating layer structure formation mechanisms. The results aid in understanding the underlying mechanisms of pigment coating layer consolidation. Guidance is given regarding the relationship between coating process conditions and internal coating slurry properties and their effects on the microstructure of the coating.

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State-of-the-art predictions of atmospheric states rely on large-scale numerical models of chaotic systems. This dissertation studies numerical methods for state and parameter estimation in such systems. The motivation comes from weather and climate models and a methodological perspective is adopted. The dissertation comprises three sections: state estimation, parameter estimation and chemical data assimilation with real atmospheric satellite data. In the state estimation part of this dissertation, a new filtering technique based on a combination of ensemble and variational Kalman filtering approaches, is presented, experimented and discussed. This new filter is developed for large-scale Kalman filtering applications. In the parameter estimation part, three different techniques for parameter estimation in chaotic systems are considered. The methods are studied using the parameterized Lorenz 95 system, which is a benchmark model for data assimilation. In addition, a dilemma related to the uniqueness of weather and climate model closure parameters is discussed. In the data-oriented part of this dissertation, data from the Global Ozone Monitoring by Occultation of Stars (GOMOS) satellite instrument are considered and an alternative algorithm to retrieve atmospheric parameters from the measurements is presented. The validation study presents first global comparisons between two unique satellite-borne datasets of vertical profiles of nitrogen trioxide (NO3), retrieved using GOMOS and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III (SAGE III) satellite instruments. The GOMOS NO3 observations are also considered in a chemical state estimation study in order to retrieve stratospheric temperature profiles. The main result of this dissertation is the consideration of likelihood calculations via Kalman filtering outputs. The concept has previously been used together with stochastic differential equations and in time series analysis. In this work, the concept is applied to chaotic dynamical systems and used together with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for statistical analysis. In particular, this methodology is advocated for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate model applications. In addition, the concept is shown to be useful in estimating the filter-specific parameters related, e.g., to model error covariance matrix parameters.

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Stochastic differential equation (SDE) is a differential equation in which some of the terms and its solution are stochastic processes. SDEs play a central role in modeling physical systems like finance, Biology, Engineering, to mention some. In modeling process, the computation of the trajectories (sample paths) of solutions to SDEs is very important. However, the exact solution to a SDE is generally difficult to obtain due to non-differentiability character of realizations of the Brownian motion. There exist approximation methods of solutions of SDE. The solutions will be continuous stochastic processes that represent diffusive dynamics, a common modeling assumption for financial, Biology, physical, environmental systems. This Masters' thesis is an introduction and survey of numerical solution methods for stochastic differential equations. Standard numerical methods, local linearization methods and filtering methods are well described. We compute the root mean square errors for each method from which we propose a better numerical scheme. Stochastic differential equations can be formulated from a given ordinary differential equations. In this thesis, we describe two kind of formulations: parametric and non-parametric techniques. The formulation is based on epidemiological SEIR model. This methods have a tendency of increasing parameters in the constructed SDEs, hence, it requires more data. We compare the two techniques numerically.

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Eutrophication caused by anthropogenic nutrient pollution has become one of the most severe threats to water bodies. Nutrients enter water bodies from atmospheric precipitation, industrial and domestic wastewaters and surface runoff from agricultural and forest areas. As point pollution has been significantly reduced in developed countries in recent decades, agricultural non-point sources have been increasingly identified as the largest source of nutrient loading in water bodies. In this study, Lake Säkylän Pyhäjärvi and its catchment are studied as an example of a long-term, voluntary-based, co-operative model of lake and catchment management. Lake Pyhäjärvi is located in the centre of an intensive agricultural area in southwestern Finland. More than 20 professional fishermen operate in the lake area, and the lake is used as a drinking water source and for various recreational activities. Lake Pyhäjärvi is a good example of a large and shallow lake that suffers from eutrophication and is subject to measures to improve this undesired state under changing conditions. Climate change is one of the most important challenges faced by Lake Pyhäjärvi and other water bodies. The results show that climatic variation affects the amounts of runoff and nutrient loading and their timing during the year. The findings from the study area concerning warm winters and their influences on nutrient loading are in accordance with the IPCC scenarios of future climate change. In addition to nutrient reduction measures, the restoration of food chains (biomanipulation) is a key method in water quality management. The food-web structure in Lake Pyhäjärvi has, however, become disturbed due to mild winters, short ice cover and low fish catch. Ice cover that enables winter seining is extremely important to the water quality and ecosystem of Lake Pyhäjärvi, as the vendace stock is one of the key factors affecting the food web and the state of the lake. New methods for the reduction of nutrient loading and the treatment of runoff waters from agriculture, such as sand filters, were tested in field conditions. The results confirm that the filter technique is an applicable method for nutrient reduction, but further development is needed. The ability of sand filters to absorb nutrients can be improved with nutrient binding compounds, such as lime. Long-term hydrological, chemical and biological research and monitoring data on Lake Pyhäjärvi and its catchment provide a basis for water protection measures and improve our understanding of the complicated physical, chemical and biological interactions between the terrestrial and aquatic realms. In addition to measurements carried out in field conditions, Lake Pyhäjärvi and its catchment were studied using various modelling methods. In the calibration and validation of models, long-term and wide-ranging time series data proved to be valuable. Collaboration between researchers, modellers and local water managers further improves the reliability and usefulness of models. Lake Pyhäjärvi and its catchment can also be regarded as a good research laboratory from the point of view of the Baltic Sea. The main problem in both of them is eutrophication caused by excess nutrients, and nutrient loading has to be reduced – especially from agriculture. Mitigation measures are also similar in both cases.

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This thesis is concerned with the state and parameter estimation in state space models. The estimation of states and parameters is an important task when mathematical modeling is applied to many different application areas such as the global positioning systems, target tracking, navigation, brain imaging, spread of infectious diseases, biological processes, telecommunications, audio signal processing, stochastic optimal control, machine learning, and physical systems. In Bayesian settings, the estimation of states or parameters amounts to computation of the posterior probability density function. Except for a very restricted number of models, it is impossible to compute this density function in a closed form. Hence, we need approximation methods. A state estimation problem involves estimating the states (latent variables) that are not directly observed in the output of the system. In this thesis, we use the Kalman filter, extended Kalman filter, Gauss–Hermite filters, and particle filters to estimate the states based on available measurements. Among these filters, particle filters are numerical methods for approximating the filtering distributions of non-linear non-Gaussian state space models via Monte Carlo. The performance of a particle filter heavily depends on the chosen importance distribution. For instance, inappropriate choice of the importance distribution can lead to the failure of convergence of the particle filter algorithm. In this thesis, we analyze the theoretical Lᵖ particle filter convergence with general importance distributions, where p ≥2 is an integer. A parameter estimation problem is considered with inferring the model parameters from measurements. For high-dimensional complex models, estimation of parameters can be done by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In its operation, the MCMC method requires the unnormalized posterior distribution of the parameters and a proposal distribution. In this thesis, we show how the posterior density function of the parameters of a state space model can be computed by filtering based methods, where the states are integrated out. This type of computation is then applied to estimate parameters of stochastic differential equations. Furthermore, we compute the partial derivatives of the log-posterior density function and use the hybrid Monte Carlo and scaled conjugate gradient methods to infer the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The computational efficiency of MCMC methods is highly depend on the chosen proposal distribution. A commonly used proposal distribution is Gaussian. In this kind of proposal, the covariance matrix must be well tuned. To tune it, adaptive MCMC methods can be used. In this thesis, we propose a new way of updating the covariance matrix using the variational Bayesian adaptive Kalman filter algorithm.

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Time series analysis can be categorized into three different approaches: classical, Box-Jenkins, and State space. Classical approach makes a basement for the analysis and Box-Jenkins approach is an improvement of the classical approach and deals with stationary time series. State space approach allows time variant factors and covers up a broader area of time series analysis. This thesis focuses on parameter identifiablity of different parameter estimation methods such as LSQ, Yule-Walker, MLE which are used in the above time series analysis approaches. Also the Kalman filter method and smoothing techniques are integrated with the state space approach and MLE method to estimate parameters allowing them to change over time. Parameter estimation is carried out by repeating estimation and integrating with MCMC and inspect how well different estimation methods can identify the optimal model parameters. Identification is performed in probabilistic and general senses and compare the results in order to study and represent identifiability more informative way.

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This study analyzed the variation in shape and size of Adzuki beans during soaking at different temperatures. In addition, different mathematical models were fitted to the experimental values of volumetric expansion, selecting the best one. Grains of Adzuki beans (Vigna angularis) with moisture content of approximately 0.25 (decimal d.b.) were manually harvested; they were, then, dried to 0.128 (decimal d.b.). The beans were subjected to soaking in distilled water at the temperatures 18 ± 1, 27 ± 1, 36 ± 1, and 45 ± 1 °C, in five repetitions. Recipients containing 80 mL of distilled water and 20 g of beans for each sample were used. The samples were periodically weighed in order to determine the water absorption. After that, the samples were removed from the recipients and placed on filter papers for two minutes to drain the surface water. Water absorption continued until the beans reached the saturation moisture content. It was concluded that, the form of the Adzuki beans was altered regularly, the orthogonal axes expanded differentially in the radial and axial directions, and that the linear model appropriately described the volumetric expansion of the Adzuki beans, among the series of models analyzed for the temperatures 18, 27, 36 and 45 °C.

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The current thesis manuscript studies the suitability of a recent data assimilation method, the Variational Ensemble Kalman Filter (VEnKF), to real-life fluid dynamic problems in hydrology. VEnKF combines a variational formulation of the data assimilation problem based on minimizing an energy functional with an Ensemble Kalman filter approximation to the Hessian matrix that also serves as an approximation to the inverse of the error covariance matrix. One of the significant features of VEnKF is the very frequent re-sampling of the ensemble: resampling is done at every observation step. This unusual feature is further exacerbated by observation interpolation that is seen beneficial for numerical stability. In this case the ensemble is resampled every time step of the numerical model. VEnKF is implemented in several configurations to data from a real laboratory-scale dam break problem modelled with the shallow water equations. It is also tried in a two-layer Quasi- Geostrophic atmospheric flow problem. In both cases VEnKF proves to be an efficient and accurate data assimilation method that renders the analysis more realistic than the numerical model alone. It also proves to be robust against filter instability by its adaptive nature.

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Nykypäivän monimutkaisessa ja epävakaassa liiketoimintaympäristössä yritykset, jotka kykenevät muuttamaan tuottamansa operatiivisen datan tietovarastoiksi, voivat saavuttaa merkittävää kilpailuetua. Ennustavan analytiikan hyödyntäminen tulevien trendien ennakointiin mahdollistaa yritysten tunnistavan avaintekijöitä, joiden avulla he pystyvät erottumaan kilpailijoistaan. Ennustavan analytiikan hyödyntäminen osana päätöksentekoprosessia mahdollistaa ketterämmän, reaaliaikaisen päätöksenteon. Tämän diplomityön tarkoituksena on koota teoreettinen viitekehys analytiikan mallintamisesta liike-elämän loppukäyttäjän näkökulmasta ja hyödyntää tätä mallinnusprosessia diplomityön tapaustutkimuksen yritykseen. Teoreettista mallia hyödynnettiin asiakkuuksien mallintamisessa sekä tunnistamalla ennakoivia tekijöitä myynnin ennustamiseen. Työ suoritettiin suomalaiseen teollisten suodattimien tukkukauppaan, jolla on liiketoimintaa Suomessa, Venäjällä ja Balteissa. Tämä tutkimus on määrällinen tapaustutkimus, jossa tärkeimpänä tiedonkeruumenetelmänä käytettiin tapausyrityksen transaktiodataa. Data työhön saatiin yrityksen toiminnanohjausjärjestelmästä.

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This thesis concerns the analysis of epidemic models. We adopt the Bayesian paradigm and develop suitable Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. This is done by considering an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo, former Zaïre, 1995 as a case of SEIR epidemic models. We model the Ebola epidemic deterministically using ODEs and stochastically through SDEs to take into account a possible bias in each compartment. Since the model has unknown parameters, we use different methods to estimate them such as least squares, maximum likelihood and MCMC. The motivation behind choosing MCMC over other existing methods in this thesis is that it has the ability to tackle complicated nonlinear problems with large number of parameters. First, in a deterministic Ebola model, we compute the likelihood function by sum of square of residuals method and estimate parameters using the LSQ and MCMC methods. We sample parameters and then use them to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. From the sampled chain from the posterior, we test the convergence diagnostic and confirm the viability of the model. The results show that the Ebola model fits the observed onset data with high precision, and all the unknown model parameters are well identified. Second, we convert the ODE model into a SDE Ebola model. We compute the likelihood function using extended Kalman filter (EKF) and estimate parameters again. The motivation of using the SDE formulation here is to consider the impact of modelling errors. Moreover, the EKF approach allows us to formulate a filtered likelihood for the parameters of such a stochastic model. We use the MCMC procedure to attain the posterior distributions of the parameters of the SDE Ebola model drift and diffusion parts. In this thesis, we analyse two cases: (1) the model error covariance matrix of the dynamic noise is close to zero , i.e. only small stochasticity added into the model. The results are then similar to the ones got from deterministic Ebola model, even if methods of computing the likelihood function are different (2) the model error covariance matrix is different from zero, i.e. a considerable stochasticity is introduced into the Ebola model. This accounts for the situation where we would know that the model is not exact. As a results, we obtain parameter posteriors with larger variances. Consequently, the model predictions then show larger uncertainties, in accordance with the assumption of an incomplete model.