Evaluation of Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: the state-of-the-art

Earth system models are increasing in complexity and incorporating more processes than their predecessors, making them important tools for studying the global carbon cycle. However, their coupled behaviour has only recently been examined in any detail, and has yielded a very wide range of outcomes, with coupled climate-carbon cycle models that represent land-use change simulating total land carbon stores by 2100 that vary by as much as 600 Pg C given the same emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated with differences in how key processes are simulated in different models, and illustrates the necessity of determining which models are most realistic using rigorous model evaluation methodologies. Here we assess the state-of-the-art with respect to evaluation of Earth system models, with a particular emphasis on the simulation of the carbon cycle and associated biospheric processes. We examine some of the new advances and remaining uncertainties relating to (i) modern and palaeo data and (ii) metrics for evaluation, and discuss a range of strategies, such as the inclusion of pre-calibration, combined process- and system-level evaluation, and the use of emergent constraints, that can contribute towards the development of more robust evaluation schemes. An increasingly data-rich environment offers more opportunities for model evaluation, but it is also a challenge, as more knowledge about data uncertainties is required in order to determine robust evaluation methodologies that move the field of ESM evaluation from "beauty contest" toward the development of useful constraints on model behaviour.

Forecasting economic and financial time series with non-linear models

In this paper we discuss the current state-of-the-art in estimating, evaluating, and selecting among non-linear forecasting models for economic and financial time series. We review theoretical and empirical issues, including predictive density, interval and point evaluation and model selection, loss functions, data-mining, and aggregation. In addition, we argue that although the evidence in favor of constructing forecasts using non-linear models is rather sparse, there is reason to be optimistic. However, much remains to be done. Finally, we outline a variety of topics for future research, and discuss a number of areas which have received considerable attention in the recent literature, but where many questions remain.

Evaluation of biospheric components in Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: the state-of-the-art

Earth system models (ESMs) are increasing in complexity by incorporating more processes than their predecessors, making them potentially important tools for studying the evolution of climate and associated biogeochemical cycles. However, their coupled behaviour has only recently been examined in any detail, and has yielded a very wide range of outcomes. For example, coupled climate–carbon cycle models that represent land-use change simulate total land carbon stores at 2100 that vary by as much as 600 Pg C, given the same emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated with differences in how key processes are simulated in different models, and illustrates the necessity of determining which models are most realistic using rigorous methods of model evaluation. Here we assess the state-of-the-art in evaluation of ESMs, with a particular emphasis on the simulation of the carbon cycle and associated biospheric processes. We examine some of the new advances and remaining uncertainties relating to (i) modern and palaeodata and (ii) metrics for evaluation. We note that the practice of averaging results from many models is unreliable and no substitute for proper evaluation of individual models. We discuss a range of strategies, such as the inclusion of pre-calibration, combined process- and system-level evaluation, and the use of emergent constraints, that can contribute to the development of more robust evaluation schemes. An increasingly data-rich environment offers more opportunities for model evaluation, but also presents a challenge. Improved knowledge of data uncertainties is still necessary to move the field of ESM evaluation away from a "beauty contest" towards the development of useful constraints on model outcomes.

The road not taken: observing a process of issue selection and model conceptualization

This article describes a case study involving information technology managers and their new programmer recruitment policy, but the primary interest is methodological. The processes of issue generation and selection and model conceptualization are described. Early use of “magnetic hexagons” allowed the generation of a range of issues, most of which would not have emerged if system dynamics elicitation techniques had been employed. With the selection of a specific issue, flow diagraming was used to conceptualize a model, computer implementation and scenario generation following naturally. Observations are made on the processes of system dynamics modeling, particularly on the need to employ general techniques of knowledge elicitation in the early stages of interventions. It is proposed that flexible approaches should be used to generate, select, and study the issues, since these reduce any biasing of the elicitation toward system dynamics problems and also allow the participants to take up the most appropriate problem- structuring approach.

Evaluation of in vitro and in vivo adhesion and immunomodulatory effect of Lactobacillus species strains isolated from chickens

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Mobility, Aesthetic, Implants, and Satisfaction of the Ocular Prostheses Wearers

During the process of facial rehabilitation, the mobility of ocular prostheses must be considered. Whereas some factors depend exclusively on the dentist, such as molding techniques and selection of material for denture construction, regarding ocular rehabilitation, factors, such as type of surgery, whether to adopt implants, and the use of lubricants, deserve special attention owing to their integration and their association with other factors pertaining exclusively to the patient. To establish harmony, and with the intention of aiding the dentist, after a discerning evaluation, the authors of this study report the factors that provide greater or less mobility to ocular prostheses and conceal the prosthesis in a more natural way, thereby contributing toward achieving a favorable aesthetic result in rehabilitations.

Ultrastructural and immunocytochemical evaluation of the effects of extracorporeal shock wave treatment in the hind limbs of horses with experimentally induced suspensory ligament desmitis

Objective-To evaluate the effects of extracorporeal shock wave therapy (ESWT) on affected ligaments in the hind limbs of horses with experimentally induced suspensory ligament desmitis by use of ultrasonographic, ultrastructural, and immunocytochemical techniques.Animals-10 horses.Procedure-Suspensory ligament desmitis was induced in both hind limbs of each horse by use of 2 collagenase injections (administered 2 weeks apart) in each suspensory ligament. Two weeks after the second injection, the right hind limb of each horse was treated with ESWT (3 treatments at 3-week intervals)- the left hind limb was not treated (control limb). Periodically during the study, the healing process was monitored ultrasonographically and the proportions of ligaments affected with lesions were assessed. Four weeks after the last ESWT treatment, biopsy specimens were collected from all ligaments for ultrastructural evaluation and immunocytochemical analysis of transforming growth factor beta-1.Results-The difference in the proportion of the lesion-affected ligament between ESWT-treated and control limbs was significant (P < 0.05) from 3 weeks after the second ESWT treatment to the end of the study. Compared with control ligaments, ESWT-treated ligaments had more small, newly formed collagen fibrils and greater expression of transforming growth factor beta-1 4 weeks after the last ESWT treatment was administered.Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Results have indicated that ESWT appears to facilitate the healing process in horses with experimentally induced hind limb suspensory ligament desmitis.

Modeling hourly diffuse solar-radiation in the city of São Paulo using a neural-network technique

dIn this work, a perceptron neural-network technique is applied to estimate hourly values of the diffuse solar-radiation at the surface in São Paulo City, Brazil, using as input the global solar-radiation and other meteorological parameters measured from 1998 to 2001. The neural-network verification was performed using the hourly measurements of diffuse solar-radiation obtained during the year 2002. The neural network was developed based on both feature determination and pattern selection techniques. It was found that the inclusion of the atmospheric long-wave radiation as input improves the neural-network performance. on the other hand traditional meteorological parameters, like air temperature and atmospheric pressure, are not as important as long-wave radiation which acts as a surrogate for cloud-cover information on the regional scale. An objective evaluation has shown that the diffuse solar-radiation is better reproduced by neural network synthetic series than by a correlation model. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Power-law distribution in a learning process: competition, learning and natural selection

In the present work, we propose a model for the statistical distribution of people versus number of steps acquired by them in a learning process, based on competition, learning and natural selection. We consider that learning ability is normally distributed. We found that the number of people versus step acquired by them in a learning process is given through a power law. As competition, learning and selection is also at the core of all economical and social systems, we consider that power-law scaling is a quantitative description of this process in social systems. This gives an alternative thinking in holistic properties of complex systems. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recommended Guidelines for the Conduct and Evaluation of Prognostic Studies in Veterinary Oncology

There is an increasing need for more accurate prognostic and predictive markers in veterinary oncology because of an increasing number of treatment options, the increased financial costs associated with treatment, and the emotional stress experienced by owners in association with the disease and its treatment. Numerous studies have evaluated potential prognostic and predictive markers for veterinary neoplastic diseases, but there are no established guidelines or standards for the conduct and reporting of prognostic studies in veterinary medicine. This lack of standardization has made the evaluation and comparison of studies difficult. Most important, translating these results to clinical applications is problematic. To address this issue, the American College of Veterinary Pathologists' Oncology Committee organized an initiative to establish guidelines for the conduct and reporting of prognostic studies in veterinary oncology. The goal of this initiative is to increase the quality and standardization of veterinary prognostic studies to facilitate independent evaluation, validation, comparison, and implementation of study results. This article represents a consensus statement on the conduct and reporting of prognostic studies in veterinary oncology from veterinary pathologists and oncologists from around the world. These guidelines should be considered a recommendation based on the current state of knowledge in the field, and they will need to be continually reevaluated and revised as the field of veterinary oncology continues to progress. As mentioned, these guidelines were developed through an initiative of the American College of Veterinary Pathologists' Oncology Committee, and they have been reviewed and endorsed by the World Small Animal Veterinary Association.

The influence of cardiopulmonary bypass operation on the biodistribution of 99mTc-HMPAO-labelled granulocytes – Evaluation in pigs by planar scintigraphy and section-analyses

Aim of the study was to evaluate the influence of an extra corporal perfusion (cardiopulmonary bypass operation - cpb) on activation and biodistribution of Tc-99m labelled granulocytes in pigs with and without inhibition of the granulocytes by a leukocyte inhibition module (LIM). The cpb is often related to an activation of granulocytes resulting in an inflammatory answer. The biological mechanisms are unsolved yet. First trials of our group showed that LIM may inhibit the activation of neutrophils and therefore antagonize a cpb-caused impairment of cardiac function. This study is the continuation of these experiments with a higher number of animals and the focus on scintigraphic imaging. Animals, material, methods: 39 German landrace pigs were subdivided into three groups: group A (control) median sternotomy without cpb, group B with cpb, group C with LIM in addition to cpb. After labelling with Tc-99m-HMPAO autologues granulocytes were reinjected. Subsequently to cpb, the animals underwent scintigraphic imaging. Quantification was performed with ROI evaluation and with tissue samples (section analysis) examined in a well counter. Results:A high uptake of Tc-99m-HMPAO was found in the liver. The count rates in brain, heart, lung, spleen and kidneys were far below. The amount of Tc-99m-activity in the organ related to the half life corrected administered activity [%] was for the tissue samples (group A/B/C): brain 0.01/0.02/0.03; lung 12.1/8.3/11.5; heart 0.35/0.54/0.42; kidney 1.24/0.87/1.02; spleen 4.0/4.0/4.5, liver 16.8/20.9/19.6. The count rates determined by ROI-evaluation of the scintigraphic images related to the total count rate in the image [%] were (group A/B/C): brain 1.1/0.9/1.0; lung 15.6/10.4/12.2; heart 4.0/3.5/3.4; kidney 4.0/2.9/3.2; spleen 7.6/7.7/9.5, liver 23.1/36.7/31.4. A significant difference in the tracer uptake between the groups could neither be detected by scintigraphic imaging nor evaluation of tissue samples. Conclusion: Scintigraphic imaging as well as section analysis showed a comparable biodistribution of the tracer. Therefore, the initial results of our group were not confirmed with a considerably higher number of animals. Neither cpb nor the use of the LIM influenced distribution of Tc-99m-labelled granulocytes in pigs significantly.

Two-Way Selection for Daily Gain and Feed Conversion in a Composite Rabbit Population

We conducted a two-way selection experiment in a composite rabbit population to investigate the responses to selection for postweaning ADG and feed conversion (FC). Two generations of crossing, followed by four generations of random pair matings, preceded three generations of selection. Selection was practiced within four lines: high-feed conversion (HFC), low-feed conversion (LFC), high gain (HG), and low gain (LG). Data on 1,446 rabbits from the random mating and selection generations were fitted to an animal model to estimate heritabilities of and the genetic correlation between ADG and FC. The two-trait model included rabbit and common litter random effects and line, generation, and sex fixed effects. Estimates of heritability of ADG and FC were .48 and .29, respectively, and the genetic correlation between them was -.82. Common litter environmental effects accounted for a proportion of .11 and . 13 of the phenotypic variation of the two traits, respectively. For ADG (in g/d) the regressions of mean breeding values on generation number during the selection period were 1.23 ± .12 (P < .01) in the HG line and -.86 ± .12 (P < .01) in the LG line; the regressions for FC (in g feed/g gain) were -.07 ± .01 (P < .01) in the HFC line and .03 ± .01 (P < .05) in the LFC line. Selection for ADG was effective in improving ADG and FC.

Doppler ultrasonography principles and methods of evaluation of the reproductive tract in mares

Background: Doppler ultrasonography is a non-invasive real time pulse-wave technique recently used for the transrectal study of the reproductive system hemodynamics in large animals. This technic is based in the Doppler Effect Principle that proposes the change in frequency of a wave for an observer (red blood cells) moving relative to the source of the respective wave (ultrasonic transducer). This method had showed to be effective and useful for the evaluation of the in vivo equine reproductive tract increasing the diagnostic, monitoring, and predictive capabilities of theriogenology in mares. However, an accurate and truthful ultrasonic exam requires the previous knowledge of the Doppler ultrasonography principles. Review: In recent years, the capabilities of ultrasound flow imaging have increased enormously. The current Doppler ultrasound machines offer three methods of evaluation that may be used simultaneously (triplex mode). In B-mode ultrasound, a linear array of transducers simultaneously scans a plane through the tissue that can be viewed as a two-dimensional gray-scale image on screen. This mode is primarily used to identify anatomically a structure for its posterior evaluation using colored ultrasound modes (Color or Spectral modes). Colored ultrasound images of flow, whether Color or Spectral modes, are essentially obtained from measurements of moving red cells. In Color mode, velocity information is presented as a color coded overlay on top of a B-mode image, while Pulsed Wave Doppler provides a measure of the changing velocity throughout the cardiac cycle and the distribution of velocities in the sample volume represented by a spectral graphic. Color images conception varies according to the Doppler Frequency that is the difference between the frequency of received echoes by moving blood red cells and wave frequency transmitted by the transducer. To produce an adequate spectral graphic it is important determine the position and size of the simple gate. Furthermore, blood flow velocity measurement is influence by the intersection angle between ultrasonic pulses and the direction of moving blood-red cells (Doppler angle). Objectively colored ultrasound exam may be done on large arteries of the reproductive tract, as uterine and ovary arteries, or directly on the target tissue (follicle, for example). Mesovarium and mesometrium attachment arteries also can be used for spectral evaluation of the equine reproductive system. Subjectively analysis of the ovarian and uterine vascular perfusion must be done directly on the corpus luteum, follicular wall and uterus (endometrium and myometrium associated), respectively. Power-flow imaging has greater sensitivity to weak blood flow and independent of the Doppler angle, improving the evaluation of vessels with small diameters and slow blood flow. Conclusion: Doppler ultrasonography principles, methods of evaluation and reproductive system anatomy have been described. This knowledge is essential for the competent equipment acquisition and precise collection and analysis of colored ultrasound images. Otherwise, the reporting of inconsistent and not reproducible findings may result in the discredit of Doppler technology ahead of the scientific veterinary community.

Proposal on indicators for follow-up to the goals of the International Conference on Population and Development in Latin America and the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

The success rate of immediate implant placement of mandibular molars: A clinical and radiographic retrospective evaluation between 2 and 8 years

Background: Dental implants, indicated for re-establishing both mastigatory and aesthetic functions, can be placed in the sockets immediately after tooth extraction. Most studies investigate the anterior and upper regions of the dental arch, whereas few examine longitudinal appraisal of immediate implant installation in the mandibular molar region. Objective: The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the success rate of immediate dental implants placement in mandibular molars within a follow-up period as long as 8 years. Materials and methods: Seventy-four mandibular molar implants after non-traumatic tooth extraction between 2002 and 2008 were examined in the study. All implants were evaluated radiographically immediately after prosthesis placement, 1 year after implantation, and by the end of the experimental period, in 2010. Clinical evaluation was done according to [Albrektsson et al. (1986) The International Journal of Oral & Maxillofacial Implants, 1, 11-25] success criteria for marginal bone loss. The mean bone losses, calculated as the difference between the final evaluation measures and those taken by the end of the first year of implant, were compared using Kruskal-Wallis test with a significance level of 5%. Results: All implants presented clinical and radiographic stable conditions, that is, 100% success rate. Significant bone loss was not found between final evaluation and that of the first functional year (P > 0.05). Conclusion: Immediate implant placement of mandibular molars proved to be a viable surgical treatment given the high success rate up to 8 years after implantation. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.