Averaging aggregation functions for preferences expressed as Pythagorean membership grades and fuzzy orthopairs

Rather than denoting fuzzy membership with a single value, orthopairs such as Atanassov's intuitionistic membership and non-membership pairs allow the incorporation of uncertainty, as well as positive and negative aspects when providing evaluations in fuzzy decision making problems. Such representations, along with interval-valued fuzzy values and the recently introduced Pythagorean membership grades, present particular challenges when it comes to defining orders and constructing aggregation functions that behave consistently when summarizing evaluations over multiple criteria or experts. In this paper we consider the aggregation of pairwise preferences denoted by membership and non-membership pairs. We look at how mappings from the space of Atanassov orthopairs to more general classes of fuzzy orthopairs can be used to help define averaging aggregation functions in these new settings. In particular, we focus on how the notion of 'averaging' should be treated in the case of Yager's Pythagorean membership grades and how to ensure that such functions produce outputs consistent with the case of ordinary fuzzy membership degrees.

Aggregation of a dibenzo[b,def]chrysene based organic photovoltaic material in solution

Detailed electrochemical studies have been undertaken on molecular aggregation of the organic semiconductor 7,14-bis((triisopropylsilyl)-ethynyl) dibenzo[b,def]chrysene (TIPS-DBC), which is used as an electron donor material in organic solar cells. Intermolecular association of neutral TIPS-DBC molecules was established by using 1H NMR spectroscopy as well as by the pronounced dependence of the color of TIPS-DBC solutions on concentration. Diffusion limited current data provided by near steady-state voltammetry also reveal aggregation. Furthermore, variation of concentration produces large changes in shapes of transient DC and Fourier transformed AC (FTAC) voltammograms for oxidation of TIPS-DBC in dichloromethane. Subtle effects of molecular aggregation on the reduction of TIPS-DBC are also revealed by the highly sensitive FTAC voltammetric method. Simulations of FTAC voltammetric data provide estimates of the kinetic and thermodynamic parameters associated with oxidation and reduction of TIPS-DBC. Significantly, aggregation of TIPS-DBC facilitates both one-electron oxidation and reduction by shifting the reversible potentials to less and more positive values, respectively. EPR spectroscopy is used to establish the identity of one-electron oxidized and reduced forms of TIPS-DBC. Implications of molecular aggregation on the HOMO energy level in solution are considered with respect to efficiency of organic photovoltaic devices utilizing TIPS-DBC as an electron donor material. © 2014 American Chemical Society.

A hybrid weighted aggregation method based on consistency and consensus in group decision making

A recent study in Science indicated that the confidence of a decision maker played an essential role in group decision making problems. In order to make use of the information of each individual's confidence of the current decision problem, a new hybrid weighted aggregation method to solve a group decision making peoblem is proposed in this paper. Specifically, the hybrid weight of each expert is generated by a convex combination of his/her subjective experience-based weight and objective problem-domain-based weight. The experience-based weight is derived from the expert's historical experiences and the problem-domain-based weight is characterized by the confidence degree and consensus degree of each expert's opinions in the current decision making process. Based on the hybrid weighted aggregation method, all the experts' opinions which are expressed in the form of fuzzy preference relations are consequently aggregated to obtain a collective group opinion. Some valuable properities of the proposed method are discussed. A nurse manager hiring problem in a hospital is employed to illustrate that the proposed method provides a rational and valid solution for the group decision making problem when the experts are not willing to change their initial preferences, or the cost of change is high due to time limitation.

Aggregation of Pi-based forecast to enhance prediction accuracy

In contrast to point forecast, prediction interval-based neural network offers itself as an effective tool to quantify the uncertainty and disturbances that associated with process data. However, single best neural network (NN) does not always guarantee to predict better quality of forecast for different data sets or a whole range of data set. Literature reported that ensemble of NNs using forecast combination produces stable and consistence forecast than single best NN. In this work, a NNs ensemble procedure is introduced to construct better quality of Pis. Weighted averaging forecasts combination mechanism is employed to combine the Pi-based forecast. As the key contribution of this paper, a new Pi-based cost function is proposed to optimize the individual weights for NN in combination process. An optimization algorithm, named simulated annealing (SA) is used to minimize the PI-based cost function. Finally, the proposed method is examined in two different case studies and compared the results with the individual best NNs and available simple averaging Pis aggregating method. Simulation results demonstrated that the proposed method improved the quality of Pis than individual best NNs and simple averaging ensemble method.

Image reduction operators as aggregation functions: Fuzzy transform and undersampling

After studying several reduction algorithms that can be found in the literature, we notice that there is not an axiomatic definition of this concept. In this work we propose the definition of weak reduction operators and we propose the properties of the original image that reduced images must keep. From this definition, we study whether two methods of image reduction, undersampling and fuzzy transform, satisfy the conditions of weak reduction operators.

Improving the quality of prediction intervals through optimal aggregation

Neural networks (NNs) are an effective tool to model nonlinear systems. However, their forecasting performance significantly drops in the presence of process uncertainties and disturbances. NN-based prediction intervals (PIs) offer an alternative solution to appropriately quantify uncertainties and disturbances associated with point forecasts. In this paper, an NN ensemble procedure is proposed to construct quality PIs. A recently developed lower-upper bound estimation method is applied to develop NN-based PIs. Then, constructed PIs from the NN ensemble members are combined using a weighted averaging mechanism. Simulated annealing and a genetic algorithm are used to optimally adjust the weights for the aggregation mechanism. The proposed method is examined for three different case studies. Simulation results reveal that the proposed method improves the average PI quality of individual NNs by 22%, 18%, and 78% for the first, second, and third case studies, respectively. The simulation study also demonstrates that a 3%-4% improvement in the quality of PIs can be achieved using the proposed method compared to the simple averaging aggregation method.

Examining performance of aggregation algorithms for neural network-based electricity demand forecasting

The aim of this research is to examine the efficiency of different aggregation algorithms to the forecasts obtained from individual neural network (NN) models in an ensemble. In this study an ensemble of 100 NN models are constructed with a heterogeneous architecture. The outputs from NN models are combined by three different aggregation algorithms. These aggregation algorithms comprise of a simple average, trimmed mean, and a Bayesian model averaging. These methods are utilized with certain modifications and are employed on the forecasts obtained from all individual NN models. The output of the aggregation algorithms is analyzed and compared with the individual NN models used in NN ensemble and with a Naive approach. Thirty-minutes interval electricity demand data from Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and the New York Independent System Operator's web site (NYISO) are used in the empirical analysis. It is observed that the aggregation algorithm perform better than many of the individual NN models. In comparison with the Naive approach, the aggregation algorithms exhibit somewhat better forecasting performance.

A stochastic time-domain model for burst data aggregation in IEEE 802.15.4 wireless sensor networks

In many network applications, the nature of traffic is of burst type. Often, the transient response of network to such traffics is the result of a series of interdependant events whose occurrence prediction is not a trivial task. The previous efforts in IEEE 802.15.4 networks often followed top-down approaches to model those sequences of events, i.e., through making top-view models of the whole network, they tried to track the transient response of network to burst packet arrivals. The problem with such approaches was that they were unable to give station-level views of network response and were usually complex. In this paper, we propose a non-stationary analytical model for the IEEE 802.15.4 slotted CSMA/CA medium access control (MAC) protocol under burst traffic arrival assumption and without the optional acknowledgements. We develop a station-level stochastic time-domain method from which the network-level metrics are extracted. Our bottom-up approach makes finding station-level details such as delay, collision and failure distributions possible. Moreover, network-level metrics like the average packet loss or transmission success rate can be extracted from the model. Compared to the previous models, our model is proven to be of lower memory and computational complexity order and also supports contention window sizes of greater than one. We have carried out extensive and comparative simulations to show the high accuracy of our model.

Aggregation on the fly: Reducing traffic for big data in the cloud

As a leading framework for processing and analyzing big data, MapReduce is leveraged by many enterprises to parallelize their data processing on distributed computing systems. Unfortunately, the all-to-all data forwarding from map tasks to reduce tasks in the traditional MapReduce framework would generate a large amount of network traffic. The fact that the intermediate data generated by map tasks can be combined with significant traffic reduction in many applications motivates us to propose a data aggregation scheme for MapReduce jobs in cloud. Specifically, we design an aggregation architecture under the existing MapReduce framework with the objective of minimizing the data traffic during the shuffle phase, in which aggregators can reside anywhere in the cloud. Some experimental results also show that our proposal outperforms existing work by reducing the network traffic significantly.

Biased experts and similarity based weights in preferences aggregation

In a group decision making setting, we consider the potential impact an expert can have on the overall ranking by providing a biased assessment of the alternatives that differs substantially from the majority opinion. In the framework of similarity based averaging functions, we show that some alternative approaches to weighting the experts' inputs during the aggregation process can minimize the influence the biased expert is able to exert.

Construction and aggregation of preference relations based on fuzzy partial orders

In group decision-making problems it is common to elicit preferences from human experts in the form of pairwise preference relations. When this is extended to a fuzzy setting, entries in the pairwise preference matrix are interpreted to denote strength of preference, however once logical properties such as consistency and transitivity are enforced, the resulting preference relation requires almost as much information as providing raw scores or a complete order over the alternatives. Here we instead interpret fuzzy degrees of preference to only apply where the preference over two alternatives is genuinely fuzzy and then suggest an aggregation procedure that minimizes a generalized Kemeny distance to the nearest complete or partial order. By focusing on the fuzzy partial order, the method is less affected by differences in the natural scale over which an expert expresses their preference, and can also limit the influence of extreme scores.

A note on Chambers's "long memory and aggregation in macroeconomic time series"

Chambers (1998) explores the interaction between long memory and aggregation. For continuous-time processes, he takes the aliasing effect into account when studying temporal aggregation. For discrete-time processes, however, he seems to fail to do so. This note gives the spectral density function of temporally aggregated long memory discrete-time processes in light of the aliasing effect. The results are different from those in Chambers (1998) and are supported by a small simulation exercise. As a result, the order of aggregation may not be invariant to temporal aggregation, specifically if d is negative and the aggregation is of the stock type.

Endogenous wage compression and aggregation boundaries in a model of hierarchical human capital

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