Methodology for developing real-time motorway traffic risk identification models using individual-vehicle data

Most of existing motorway traffic safety studies using disaggregate traffic flow data aim at developing models for identifying real-time traffic risks by comparing pre-crash and non-crash conditions. One of serious shortcomings in those studies is that non-crash conditions are arbitrarily selected and hence, not representative, i.e. selected non-crash data might not be the right data comparable with pre-crash data; the non-crash/pre-crash ratio is arbitrarily decided and neglects the abundance of non-crash over pre-crash conditions; etc. Here, we present a methodology for developing a real-time MotorwaY Traffic Risk Identification Model (MyTRIM) using individual vehicle data, meteorological data, and crash data. Non-crash data are clustered into groups called traffic regimes. Thereafter, pre-crash data are classified into regimes to match with relevant non-crash data. Among totally eight traffic regimes obtained, four highly risky regimes were identified; three regime-based Risk Identification Models (RIM) with sufficient pre-crash data were developed. MyTRIM memorizes the latest risk evolution identified by RIM to predict near future risks. Traffic practitioners can decide MyTRIM’s memory size based on the trade-off between detection and false alarm rates. Decreasing the memory size from 5 to 1 precipitates the increase of detection rate from 65.0% to 100.0% and of false alarm rate from 0.21% to 3.68%. Moreover, critical factors in differentiating pre-crash and non-crash conditions are recognized and usable for developing preventive measures. MyTRIM can be used by practitioners in real-time as an independent tool to make online decision or integrated with existing traffic management systems.

Why are early maturing girls less active? Links between pubertal development, psychological well-being, and physical activity among girls at ages 11 and 13

Previous research has shown that early maturing girls at age I I have lower subsequent physical activity at age 13 in comparison to later maturing girls. Possible reasons for this association have not been assessed. This study examines girls' psychological response to puberty and their enjoyment of physical activity as intermediary factors linking pubertal maturation and physical activity. Participants included 178 girls who were assessed at age 11, of whom 168 were reassessed at age 13. All participants were non-Hispanic white and resided in the US. Three measures of pubertal development were obtained at age I I including Tanner breast stage, estradiol levels, and mothers' reports of girls' development on the Pubertal Development Scale (PDS). Measures of psychological well-being at ages I I and 13 included depression, global self-worth, perceived athletic competence, maturation fears, and body esteem. At age 13, girls' enjoyment of physical activity was assessed using the Physical Activity Enjoyment Scale and their daily minutes of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were assessed using objective monitoring. Structural Equation Modeling was used to assess direct and indirect pathways between pubertal development at age I I and MVPA at age 13. In addition to a direct effect of pubertal development on MVPA, indirect effects were found for depression, global self-worth and maturity fears controlling for covariates. In each instance, more advanced pubertal development at age I I was associated with lower psychological wellbeing at age 13, which predicted lower enjoyment of physical activity at age 13 and in turn lower MVPA. Results from this study suggest that programs designed to increase physical activity among adolescent girls should address the self-consciousness and discontent that girls' experience with their bodies during puberty, particularly if they mature earlier than their peers, and identify activities or settings that make differences in body shape less conspicuous.

An attack-localizing watermarking scheme for natural language documents

We present a text watermarking scheme that embeds a bitstream watermark Wi in a text document P preserving the meaning, context, and flow of the document. The document is viewed as a set of paragraphs, each paragraph being a set of sentences. The sequence of paragraphs and sentences used to embed watermark bits is permuted using a secret key. Then, English language sentence transformations are used to modify sentence lengths, thus embedding watermarking bits in the Least Significant Bits (LSB) of the sentences’ cardinalities. The embedding and extracting algorithms are public, while the secrecy and security of the watermark depends on a secret key K. The probability of False Positives is extremely small, hence avoiding incidental occurrences of our watermark in random text documents. Majority voting provides security against text addition, deletion, and swapping attacks, further reducing the probability of False Positives. The scheme is secure against the general attacks on text watermarks such as reproduction (photocopying, FAX), reformatting, synonym substitution, text addition, text deletion, text swapping, paragraph shuffling and collusion attacks.

Field validation of controlled Monte Carlo data generation for statistical damage identification employing Mahalanobis squared distance

This article presents the field applications and validations for the controlled Monte Carlo data generation scheme. This scheme was previously derived to assist the Mahalanobis squared distance–based damage identification method to cope with data-shortage problems which often cause inadequate data multinormality and unreliable identification outcome. To do so, real-vibration datasets from two actual civil engineering structures with such data (and identification) problems are selected as the test objects which are then shown to be in need of enhancement to consolidate their conditions. By utilizing the robust probability measures of the data condition indices in controlled Monte Carlo data generation and statistical sensitivity analysis of the Mahalanobis squared distance computational system, well-conditioned synthetic data generated by an optimal controlled Monte Carlo data generation configurations can be unbiasedly evaluated against those generated by other set-ups and against the original data. The analysis results reconfirm that controlled Monte Carlo data generation is able to overcome the shortage of observations, improve the data multinormality and enhance the reliability of the Mahalanobis squared distance–based damage identification method particularly with respect to false-positive errors. The results also highlight the dynamic structure of controlled Monte Carlo data generation that makes this scheme well adaptive to any type of input data with any (original) distributional condition.

Asymptotic minimax robust and misspecified Lorden quickest change detection for dependent stochastic processes

The quick detection of an abrupt unknown change in the conditional distribution of a dependent stochastic process has numerous applications. In this paper, we pose a minimax robust quickest change detection problem for cases where there is uncertainty about the post-change conditional distribution. Our minimax robust formulation is based on the popular Lorden criteria of optimal quickest change detection. Under a condition on the set of possible post-change distributions, we show that the widely known cumulative sum (CUSUM) rule is asymptotically minimax robust under our Lorden minimax robust formulation as a false alarm constraint becomes more strict. We also establish general asymptotic bounds on the detection delay of misspecified CUSUM rules (i.e. CUSUM rules that are designed with post- change distributions that differ from those of the observed sequence). We exploit these bounds to compare the delay performance of asymptotically minimax robust, asymptotically optimal, and other misspecified CUSUM rules. In simulation examples, we illustrate that asymptotically minimax robust CUSUM rules can provide better detection delay performance at greatly reduced computation effort compared to competing generalised likelihood ratio procedures.

On-the-fly web content integrity check boosts users' confidence

Web servers are accessible by anyone who can access the Internet. Although this universal accessibility is attractive for all kinds of Web-based applications, Web servers are exposed to attackers who may want to alter their contents. Alterations range from humorous additions or changes, which are typically easy to spot, to more sinister tampering, such as providing false or damaging information.

Robust numeric set watermarking : numbers don’t lie

Ever since Cox et. al published their paper, “A Secure, Robust Watermark for Multimedia” in 1996 [6], there has been tremendous progress in multimedia watermarking. The same pattern re-emerged with Agrawal and Kiernan publishing their work “Watermarking Relational Databases” in 2001 [1]. However, little attention has been given to primitive data collections with only a handful works of research known to the authors [11, 10]. This is primarily due to the absence of an attribute that differentiates marked items from unmarked item during insertion and detection process. This paper presents a distribution-independent, watermarking model that is secure against secondary-watermarking in addition to conventional attacks such as data addition, deletion and distortion. The low false positives and high capacity provide additional strength to the scheme. These claims are backed by experimental results provided in the paper.

Visualization of long-duration acoustic recordings of the environment

Acoustic recordings of the environment are an important aid to ecologists monitoring biodiversity and environmental health. However, rapid advances in recording technology, storage and computing make it possible to accumulate thousands of hours of recordings, of which, ecologists can only listen to a small fraction. The big-data challenge addressed in this paper is to visualize the content of long-duration audio recordings on multiple scales, from hours, days, months to years. The visualization should facilitate navigation and yield ecologically meaningful information. Our approach is to extract (at one minute resolution) acoustic indices which reflect content of ecological interest. An acoustic index is a statistic that summarizes some aspect of the distribution of acoustic energy in a recording. We combine indices to produce false-color images that reveal acoustic content and facilitate navigation through recordings that are months or even years in duration.

Ethics in project management : some Aristotelian insights

Purpose My aim is to introduce, in the project management field, an Aristotelian ethics lens moving beyond the classical deontological and consequentialism approaches underlying the current ethical practices and codes of ethics and professional conducts. In doing so, I wish to pose the premises of a debate on the implications of a conscious ethical perspective for the structure and agency relationship within the project management field Design/methodology/approach Project management is a knowledge field on its own right. However the current perspectives applied to make sense and develop the field (modernism vs. postmodernism) leads to dichotomous thinking rather than recognizing the merits and contextual validity of both sides. I call for Aristotelian Ethics as a way of moving beyond this dichotomous thinking. I introduce briefly Aristotelian Ethics and its consequences in term of relation theory – practice, means and ends, facts and values, and finally politics (i.e. being part of a community of practitioners). Then I illustrate some consequences for the field taking PMI Code of Ethics and Professional Conduct and APM Code of Professional Conduct as supports for discussion Findings I suggest a need for revisiting and/or redesigning the codes of ethics and professional conducts for project management according to an Aristotelian perspective, in order to move beyond the normative limitations of classical deontological (conflict between competing duties, exemplified by PMI Code) or consequentialism (focusing on the "right" outcome to the detriment of duties, exemplified by APM Code) approaches (both, in fact, leading to a disconnection means and ends, and facts and values). This implicates shifting our view from the question "what is my duty?" to the questions "why should I undertake my duty?" and "how ought I act in this situation?" Practical implications Raising Professional Bodies, Industry and Education institutions awareness and consciousness and leading them to rethink about codes of ethics and the implications for the way they conceive practice and research, bodies of knowledge, credentialing, education... Originality/value To the best of my knowledge, this kind of discussion has not yet been conducted within the project management field, and considering the implication of project management in our life and for the well being of the society, an ethical debate may present some value(s)

Air pollution and invisible violence

In recent years air pollution has been referred to as an ‘invisible killer’, and ‘an invisible health crisis’ (European Respiratory Society 2012). As other chapters in this collection have argued, the invisibility of crime is manifested through various lenses: lack of knowledge, lack of political and media attention, an absence of policing and regulatory focus, and an unwitting and ill-informed public. All such arguments pertain to air pollution; however, toxic emissions are also literally invisible from sight and consciousness, as are the associated consequences.

Genome-wide analysis in a murine Dnmt1 knockdown model identifies epigenetically silenced genes in primary human pituitary tumors

DNA methylation at promoter CpG islands (CGI) is an epigenetic modification associated with inappropriate gene silencing in multiple tumor types. In the absence of a human pituitary tumor cell line, small interfering RNA-mediated knockdown of the maintenance methyltransferase DNA methyltransferase (cytosine 5)-1 (Dnmt1) was used in the murine pituitary adenoma cell line AtT-20. Sustained knockdown induced reexpression of the fully methylated and normally imprinted gene neuronatin (Nnat) in a time-dependent manner. Combined bisulfite restriction analysis (COBRA) revealed that reexpression of Nnat was associated with partial CGI demethylation, which was also observed at the H19 differentially methylated region. Subsequent genome-wide microarray analysis identified 91 genes that were significantly differentially expressed in Dnmt1 knockdown cells (10% false discovery rate). The analysis showed that genes associated with the induction of apoptosis, signal transduction, and developmental processes were significantly overrepresented in this list (P < 0.05). Following validation by reverse transcription-PCR and detection of inappropriate CGI methylation by COBRA, four genes (ICAM1, NNAT, RUNX1, and S100A10) were analyzed in primary human pituitary tumors, each displaying significantly reduced mRNA levels relative to normal pituitary (P < 0.05). For two of these genes, NNAT and S100A10, decreased expression was associated with increased promoter CGI methylation. Induced expression of Nnat in stable transfected AtT-20 cells inhibited cell proliferation. To our knowledge, this is the first report of array-based "epigenetic unmasking" in combination with Dnmt1 knockdown and reveals the potential of this strategy toward identifying genes silenced by epigenetic mechanisms across species boundaries.

Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Nearness and revealing : The edible veil of the sensible being.

Taking cues from the fragility and grace enfolded within Asian cuisine, this paper explores recent experimentation of an edible rice paper veil. The veil fashions a 'secondary skin', what Jeffery Schnapp the author of 'The Fabric of Modern Times', calls an "object for prosthetic shelf extension...bearing a uniquely intimate and direct relation to the human body" (Schnapp, 1997:197). The process reveals a layered material mutable to moisture and humidity, changing its elastic state in relation to body and surroundings. The moving, breathing, sweating surface of the body further modifies both veil and bodily experience drawing forth deeper emotional responses. The implications here offer a reciprocal affect, a revealing, where new materiality evokes the threshold to a new sensible being, one aware of the depth of material consciousness and inter-corporeal engagement, and which extends the relations between thinking and being of Heidegger and Shklovsky's seminal works.

Emotion as a boost to metacognition : how worry enhances the quality of confidence

Emotion and cognition are known to interact during human decision processes. In this study we focus on a specific kind of cognition, namely metacognition. Our experiment induces a negative emotion, worry, during a perceptual task. In a numerosity task subjects have to make a two alternative forced choice and then reveal their confidence in this decision. We measure metacognition in terms of discrimination and calibration abilities. Our results show that metacognition, but not choice, is affected by the level of worry anticipatedbefore the decision. Under worry individuals tend to have better metacognition in terms of the two measures. Furthermore understanding the formation of confidence is better explained with taking into account the level of worry in the model. This study shows the importance of an emotional component in the formation and the quality of the subjective probabilities.

Rupturing otherness : becoming Estonian in the context of contemporary Britain

While identity construction continues to be a widely discussed and researched area in contemporary social sciences, the existing theories have overlooked the importance of understanding why and how identities as semiotic constructions emerge in individuals' consciousness in the flow of their everyday functioning. This article seeks to address this limitation in the theorizing by proposing an alternative conceptualization of identity, according to which identity construction is triggered by rupturing life-experience, which surfaces another perspective and makes the person aware of a possibility to be otherwise or of the reality of being different. Theoretical claims put forward in the paper are drawn from data gathered in a recent study, which explored lived-through experiences of young Estonians, who made study-visits to the United Kingdom. The discussed data will also highlight some interesting aspects in Estonians' self-definition as it is constructed in relation to Eastern-European identity in the context of contemporary Britain.