The Life and Times of Bills

Time is one of the scarcest resources in modern parliaments. In parliamentary systems of government the control of time in the chamber is a significant power resource enjoyed – to varying degrees – by parliamentary majorities and the governments they support. Minorities may not be able to muster enough votes to stop bills, but they may have – varying degrees of – delaying powers enabling them to extract concessions from majorities attempting to get on with their overall legislative programme. This paper provides a comparative analysis of the dynamics of the legislative process in 17 West European parliaments from the formal initiation of bills to their promulgation. The ‘biographies’ of a sample of bills are examined using techniques of event-history analysis (a) charting the dynamics of the legislative process both across the life-times of individual bills and different political systems and (b) examining whether, and to what extent, parliamentary rules and some general regime attributes influence the dynamics of this process, speeding up or delaying the passage of legislation. Using a veto-points framework and transaction cost politics as a theoretical framework, the quantitative analyses suggest a number of counter-intuitive findings (e.g., the efficiency of powerful committees) and cast doubt on some of the claims made by Tsebelis in his veto-player model.

Multimodal treatment for high-risk prostate cancer with high-dose intensity-modulated radiation therapy preceded or not by radical prostatectomy, concurrent intensified-dose docetaxel and long-term androgen deprivation therapy: results of a prospective phase II trial.

BACKGROUND The optimal management of high-risk prostate cancer remains uncertain. In this study we assessed the safety and efficacy of a novel multimodal treatment paradigm for high-risk prostate cancer. METHODS This was a prospective phase II trial including 35 patients with newly diagnosed high-risk localized or locally advanced prostate cancer treated with high-dose intensity-modulated radiation therapy preceded or not by radical prostatectomy, concurrent intensified-dose docetaxel-based chemotherapy and long-term androgen deprivation therapy. Primary endpoint was acute and late toxicity evaluated with the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0. Secondary endpoint was biochemical and clinical recurrence-free survival explored with the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS Acute gastro-intestinal and genito-urinary toxicity was grade 2 in 23% and 20% of patients, and grade 3 in 9% and 3% of patients, respectively. Acute blood/bone marrow toxicity was grade 2 in 20% of patients. No acute grade ≥ 4 toxicity was observed. Late gastro-intestinal and genito-urinary toxicity was grade 2 in 9% of patients each. No late grade ≥ 3 toxicity was observed. Median follow-up was 63 months (interquartile range 31-79). Actuarial 5-year biochemical and clinical recurrence-free survival rate was 55% (95% confidence interval, 35-75%) and 70% (95% confidence interval, 52-88%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS In our phase II trial testing a novel multimodal treatment paradigm for high-risk prostate cancer, toxicity was acceptably low and mid-term oncological outcome was good. This treatment paradigm, thus, may warrant further evaluation in phase III randomized trials.

General distress, hopelessness—suicidal ideation and worrying in adolescence: Concurrent and predictive validity of a symptom-level bifactor model for clinical diagnoses

BACKGROUND: Clinical disorders often share common symptoms and aetiological factors. Bifactor models acknowledge the role of an underlying general distress component and more specific sub-domains of psychopathology which specify the unique components of disorders over and above a general factor. METHODS: A bifactor model jointly calibrated data on subjective distress from The Mood and Feelings Questionnaire and the Revised Children's Manifest Anxiety Scale. The bifactor model encompassed a general distress factor, and specific factors for (a) hopelessness-suicidal ideation, (b) generalised worrying and (c) restlessness-fatigue at age 14 which were related to lifetime clinical diagnoses established by interviews at ages 14 (concurrent validity) and current diagnoses at 17 years (predictive validity) in a British population sample of 1159 adolescents. RESULTS: Diagnostic interviews confirmed the validity of a symptom-level bifactor model. The underlying general distress factor was a powerful but non-specific predictor of affective, anxiety and behaviour disorders. The specific factors for hopelessness-suicidal ideation and generalised worrying contributed to predictive specificity. Hopelessness-suicidal ideation predicted concurrent and future affective disorder; generalised worrying predicted concurrent and future anxiety, specifically concurrent generalised anxiety disorders. Generalised worrying was negatively associated with behaviour disorders. LIMITATIONS: The analyses of gender differences and the prediction of specific disorders was limited due to a low frequency of disorders other than depression. CONCLUSIONS: The bifactor model was able to differentiate concurrent and predict future clinical diagnoses. This can inform the development of targeted as well as non-specific interventions for prevention and treatment of different disorders.

Pre-Election Positions and Voting Behaviour in Parliament: Consistency among Swiss MPs

This article examines the determinants of positional incongruence between pre-election statements and post-election behaviour in the Swiss parliament between 2003 and 2009. The question is examined at the individual MP level, which is appropriate for dispersion-of-powers systems like Switzerland. While the overall rate of political congruence reaches about 85%, a multilevel logit analysis detects the underlying factors which push or curb a candidate's propensity to change his or her mind once elected. The results show that positional changes are more likely when (1) MPs are freshmen, (2) individual voting behaviour is invisible to the public, (3) the electoral district magnitude is not small, (4) the vote is not about a party's core issue, (5) the MP belongs to a party which is located in the political centre, and (6) if the pre-election statement dissents from the majority position of the legislative party group. Of these factors, the last one is paramount.

Studying functional brain networks with concurrent transcranical alternating current stimulation and EEG

Recently transcranial electric stimulation (tES) has been widely used as a mean to modulate brain activity. The modulatory effects of tES have been studied with the excitability of primary motor cortex. However, tES effects are not limited to the site of stimulation but extended to other brain areas, suggesting a need for the study of functional brain networks. Transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS) applies sinusoidal current at a specified frequency, presumably modulating brain activity in a frequency-specific manner. At a behavioural level, tACS has been confirmed to modulate behaviour, but its neurophysiological effects are still elusive. In addition, neural oscillations are considered to reflect rhythmic changes in transmission efficacy across brain networks, suggesting that tACS would provide a mean to modulate brain networks. To study neurophysiological effects of tACS, we have been developing a methodological framework by combining transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), EEG and tACS. We have developed the optimized concurrent tACS-EEG recording protocol and powerful artefact removal method that allow us to study neurophysiological effects of tACS. We also established the concurrent tACS-TMS-EEG recording to study brain network connectivity while introducing extrinsic oscillatory activity by tACS. We show that tACS modulate brain activity in a phase-dependent manner. Our methodological advancement will open an opportunity to study causal role of oscillatory brain activity in neural transmissions in cortical brain networks.

Age, Growth and Population Structure of Jumbo Flying Squid, Dosidicus Gigas, Based on Statolith Microstructure Off the Exclusive Economic Zone of Chilean Waters

The jumbo flying squid, Dosidicus gigas, support an important squid fishery off the Exclusive Economic Zone of Chilean waters. However, we only have limited information about their biology. In this study, age, growth and population structure of D. gigas were studied using statoliths from 333 specimens (386 females and 147 males) randomly sampled in the Chinese squid jigging surveys from 2007 to 2008 off the Exclusive Economic Zone of Chile. Mantle lengths (MLs) of the sample ranged from 206 to 702 mm, and their ages were estimated from 150 to 307 days for females and from 127 to 302 days for males. At least two spawning groups were identified, the main spawning peak tended to occur between August and November (austral spring group), and the secondary peak appeared during March to June (austral autumn group). The ML-age relationship was best modelled by a linear function for the austral spring group and a power function for the austral autumn group, and the body weight (BW)-age relationship was best described by an exponential function for both the groups. Instantaneous relative growth rates and absolute growth rates for ML and BW did not differ significantly between the two groups. The growth rate of D. gigas tended to be high at young stages, and then decreased after the sub-adult stage (>180 days old). This study suggests large spatial and temporal variability in key life history parameters of D. gigas, calling for the collection of more data with fine spatial and temporal scales to further improve our understanding of the fishery biology of D. gigas.

Trace Elements in the Statoliths of Jumbo Flying Squid Off the Exclusive Economic Zones of Chile and Peru

Ontogenetic variation in 4 trace element ((88)Sr, (137)Ba, (24)Mg, (23)Na) concentrations and their ratios to Ca were measured in statoliths of the jumbo flying squid Dosidicus gigas off the Exclusive Economic Zone of Chilean and Peruvian waters using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS). The element compositions of statoliths showed no significant differences between females and males. All of the elements in different growth zones showed significant variations, except for Mg. Sr:Ca and Mg:Ca were good indicators for distinguishing squid from autumn and winter spawning seasons. Sr:Ca and Ba:Ca distribution patterns in statoliths confirmed that paralarvae and juvenile squid inhabit surface waters, while subadult squid migrate into deeper waters. An increasing Sr: Ca ratio of subadult squid could be explained by declining temperature gradients from northern to southern sampling locations, although no significant Sr: Ca differences were observed (p > 0.05). Mg:Ca ratios decreased progressively from the nucleus to the peripheral zone, which might be correlated with statolith growth rates. Na:Ca ratios slightly declined from paralarvae to the subadult phase. Quantitative relationships between statolith trace elements and environmental conditions under different growth stages are needed to improve our understanding of life history of D. gigas.

HIV incidence estimates and HIV/AIDS concurrent diagnosis in Houston/Harris County

The purpose of this dissertation was to estimate HIV incidence among the individuals who had HIV tests performed at the Houston Department of Health and Human Services (HDHHS) public health laboratory, and to examine the prevalence of HIV and AIDS concurrent diagnoses among HIV cases reported between 2000 and 2007 in Houston/Harris County. ^ The first study in this dissertation estimated the cumulative HIV incidence among the individuals testing at Houston public health laboratory using Serologic Testing Algorithms for Recent HIV Seroconversion (STARHS) during the two year study period (June 1, 2005 to May 31, 2007). The HIV incidence was estimated using two independently developed statistical imputation methods, one developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and the other developed by HDHHS. Among the 54,394 persons who tested for HIV during the study period, 942 tested HIV positive (positivity rate=1.7%). Of these HIV positives, 448 (48%) were newly reported to the Houston HIV/AIDS Reporting System (HARS) and 417 of these 448 blood specimens (93%) were available for STARHS testing. The STARHS results showed 139 (33%) out of the 417 specimens were newly infected with HIV. Using both the CDC and HDHHS methods, the estimated cumulative HIV incidences over the two-year study period were similar: 862 per 100,000 persons (95% CI: 655-1,070) by CDC method, and 925 per 100,000 persons (95% CI: 908-943) by HDHHS method. Consistent with the national finding, this study found African Americans, and men who have sex with men (MSM) accounted for most of the new HIV infections among the individuals testing at Houston public health laboratory. Using CDC statistical method, this study also found the highest cumulative HIV incidence (2,176 per 100,000 persons [95%CI: 1,536-2,798]) was among those who tested in the HIV counseling and testing sites, compared to the sexually transmitted disease clinics (1,242 per 100,000 persons [95%CI: 871-1,608]) and city health clinics (215 per 100,000 persons [95%CI: 80-353]. This finding suggested the HIV counseling and testing sites in Houston were successful in reaching high risk populations and testing them early for HIV. In addition, older age groups had higher cumulative HIV incidence, but accounted for smaller proportions of new HIV infections. The incidence in the 30-39 age group (994 per 100,000 persons [95%CI: 625-1,363]) was 1.5 times the incidence in 13-29 age group (645 per 100,000 persons [95%CI: 447-840]); the incidences in 40-49 age group (1,371 per 100,000 persons [95%CI: 765-1,977]) and 50 or above age groups (1,369 per 100,000 persons [95%CI: 318-2,415]) were 2.1 times compared to the youngest 13-29 age group. The increased HIV incidence in older age groups suggested that persons 40 or above were still at risk to contract HIV infections. HIV prevention programs should encourage more people who are age 40 and above to test for HIV. ^ The second study investigated concurrent diagnoses of HIV and AIDS in Houston. Concurrent HIV/AIDS diagnosis is defined as AIDS diagnosis within three months of HIV diagnosis. This study found about one-third of the HIV cases were diagnosed with HIV and AIDS concurrently (within three months) in Houston/Harris County. Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, this study found being male, Hispanic, older, and diagnosed in the private sector of care were positively associated with concurrent HIV and AIDS diagnoses. By contrast, men who had sex with men and also used injection drugs (MSM/IDU) were 0.64 times (95% CI: 0.44-0.93) less likely to have concurrent HIV and AIDS diagnoses. A sensitivity analysis comparing difference durations of elapsed time for concurrent HIV and AIDS diagnosis definitions (1-month, 3-month, and 12-month cut-offs) affected the effect size of the odds ratios, but not the direction. ^ The results of these two studies, one describing characteristics of the individuals who were newly infected with HIV, and the other study describing persons who were diagnosed with HIV and AIDS concurrently, can be used as a reference for HIV prevention program planning in Houston/Harris County. ^