A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.

Aplicação de microssatélites na crioconservação da diversidade genética do cavalo lusitano

O género Equus teve origem na América do Norte e alguns exemplares migraram para a Eurásia pelo Estreito de Bering, durante a última glaciação. No fim da glaciação, todos os cavalos do continente americano extinguiram-se, mas sobreviveram nas estepes da Eurásia, na Peninsula lbérica e nas florestas da Europa Ocidental e Central. O cavalo Lusitano teve a sua origem em cavalos selvagens e domesticados da Peninsula lbérica, ocorrendo uma mistura com outros animais trazidos por eventos migratórios ocorridos no passado. Os cavalos deste gene pool contribuiram para o desenvolvimento de outras raças modernas na Europa e foram mais tarde introduzidos e dispersos pelo continente Americano, tornando-se fundadores de numerosas raças do novo mundo. A raça Lusitana é uma raça equina autóctone portuguesa, com especial relevancia económica no panorama nacional e internacional. Apesar de não ser uma raça ameaçada, alguns autores defendem que a informação genealógica disponivel (pedigrees) indica que uma utilização excessiva de um reduzido número de reprodutores machos esta a diminuir a diversidade genética da raça, tendo como consequência o aumento da consanguinidade e a diminuição do tamanho efetivo da população para cerca de metade dos valores recomendados pela FAO. No entanto, a anàlise da diversidade genética com base em 16 microssatélites (Marcadores de DNA) a um grupo de 2699 machos da raça Lusitana, nascidos entre 1985 e 2010 e inscritos como reprodutores no Livro Genealógico da raça, revelou um elevado nível de diversidade, idêntico ao encontrado na maioria das raças equinas. Dada a crescente relevância da Crioconservação, omo estratégia complementar para a conservação da diversidade genética in situ, e tendo em conta que não existe criopreservação de oocitos, embriões ou sémen, do cavalo de raça Lusitana em Banco de Genes, selecionaram-se 62 machos reprodutores (garanhões) com interesse genético para a criopreservação de sémen, quer no sentido de preservar a diversidade da raça quer no da salvaguardar em caso de calamidade; ABSTRACT: The genus Equus originated in North America and some exemplary migrated to Eurasia through the Bering Strait during the last glaciation. By the end of the last glaciation, all horses on the American continent became extinct but the genus survived in the steppes of Eurasia, in the Iberian Peninsula and on the Central and West Europe forests. The Lusitano horse breed has its origins in wild and domesticated horses of the Iberian Peninsula, where a mixture with other animals brought by migratory events in the past occurred. The horses of this gene pool contributed to the development of other modern breeds in Europe and were later introduced and spread throughout the American continent, becoming founders of numerous breeds of the New World. The Lusitano horse breed, is a Portuguese native equine breed, with special economic relevance in the national and international scene. Although not being an endangered breed, some authors argue that the available genealogical information (pedigrees) indicates that an excessive use of a limited number of stallions is decreasing the genetic diversity of the breed, resulting in the increase of inbreeding and on the decrease of the effective population size to about half of the values recommended by FAO. However, the analysis of genetic diversity based on 16 microsatellites (DNA markers) in a group of 2699 males of the Lusitano horse breed, born between 1985 and 2010 and registered as Stallions in the Studbook, revealed a high level of diversity similar to that found in the majority of equine breeds. Given the growing relevance of Cryopreservation as a complementary strategy for the conservation of genetic diversity in situ and, taking into consideration the inexistence of criopreservation for oocytes, embryos and semen, in a Gene Bank, for the Lusitano horse breed, 62 breeding males (stallions) with genetic interest for semen cryopreservation were selected in order either to preserve the diversity of the breed or as safeguard in case of calamity.

Using a Combination of Phylogenetic Comparative and Paleobotanical Methods to Elucidate Patterns of Lineage Selection in Rosales (Plantae: Anthophyta)

An increasing focus in evolutionary biology is on the interplay between mesoscale ecological and evolutionary processes such as population demographics, habitat tolerance, and especially geographic distribution, as potential drivers responsible for patterns of diversification and extinction over geologic time. However, few studies to date connect organismal processes such as survival and reproduction through mesoscale patterns to long-term macroevolutionary trends. In my dissertation, I investigate how mechanism of seed dispersal, mediated through geographic range size, influences diversification rates in the Rosales (Plantae: Anthophyta). In my first chapter, I validate the phylogenetic comparative methods that I use in my second and third chapters. Available state speciation and extinction (SSE) models assumptions about evolution known to be false through fossil data. I show, however, that as long as net diversification rates remain positive – a condition likely true for the Rosales – these violations of SSE’s assumptions do not cause significantly biased results. With SSE methods validated, my second chapter reconstructs three associations that appear to increase diversification rate for Rosalean genera: (1) herbaceous habit; (2) a three-way interaction combining animal dispersal, high within-genus species richness, and geographic range on multiple continents; (3) a four-way interaction combining woody habit with the other three characteristics of (2). I suggest that the three- and four-way interactions represent colonization ability and resulting extinction resistance in the face of late Cenozoic climate change; however, there are other possibilities as well that I hope to investigate in future research. My third chapter reconstructs the phylogeographic history of the Rosales using both non-fossil-assisted SSE methods as well as fossil-informed traditional phylogeographic analysis. Ancestral state reconstructions indicate that the Rosaceae diversified in North America while the other Rosalean families diversified elsewhere, possibly in Eurasia. SSE is able to successfully identify groups of genera that were likely to have been ancestrally widespread, but has poorer taxonomic resolution than methods that use fossil data. In conclusion, these chapters together suggest several potential causal links between organismal, mesoscale, and geologic scale processes, but further work will be needed to test the hypotheses that I raise here.

Суррвая территория для сильных мужчин. Гендерные аспекты развития туризма в Арктических регионах Россиию

Освоение и развитие Арктических территорий России неразрывно связано с аспектом первооткрывательства и преодоления. Суровые природные условия северного края всегда как казалось, противоречили самому присутствию здесь женщины. Это становится особенно заметным при знакомстве с обстоятельствами проведения самых известных арктических экспедиций, состоявшихся в советский период освоения Севера. Вот, например, известнейшая эпопея экспедиции на пароходе «Семен Челюскин» (руководитель экспедиции О.Ю. Щмидт, капитан судна В.И.Воронин), перед которой была поставлена задача за одну навигацию пройти Северным морским путём. После гибели затёртого льдами парохода и героического спасения коллектива экспедиции имена челюскинцев стали известны всей стране. Любопытно, что в этом злополучном рейсе принимали участие   и женщины, в том числе и мама первого в мире ребенка, родившегося на пароходе в Карском море в честь которого девочку звали Кариной.  Интересно оценить состояние современного информационного арктического пространства России по отношению к женщине, в особенности в условиях, когда большинство программ социально-экономического развития заточены на необходимость активного развития туристского сектора. Этот аспект развития индустрии туризма в Арктике, можно сказать, ещё не изучен. Развитие сферы услуг диктует необходимость активного вовлечения женщин в туризм в качестве основного рабочего агента. Однако в условиях Севера, туристические предложения официальных турфирм, явно не стремятся к активному привлечению женщин в качестве своих клиентов. Сознательно создается ли эта ситуация или она является логическим продолжением уже существующих традиций? Доклад, предлагаемый на ваше осуждение, посвящен более подробному описанию этого и ряда других вопросов связанных с общим имиджем Арктических регионов, создаваемым участниками туристической деятельности.

Patterns in the space use of the Bearded Reedling, Panurus biarmicus, on the Tay Reedbeds, Scotland

This thesis presents research into the space use of a specialist reedbed Passerine, the Bearded Reedling, or Bearded Tit, Panurus biarmicus, with a view to inform the conservation of this species and reedbeds as a whole. How a species uses space, and how space use changes between individuals or over time, can influence: the ability to forage and hunt effectively, breeding success, susceptibility to predation, genetic health, disease spread, robustness against environmental change and ultimately, colonisation or extinction. Thus, understanding the space use of animals can provide critical insight into ecological systems. Birds offer interesting models when studying animal space use, as, by being intrinsically mobile, many bird species can occupy multiple spatial scales. As a consequence of being completely dependent on patchy and ephemeral reedbed habitats, the Bearded Reedling, has a clustered, inhomogeneous distribution throughout its range. This drives the existence of distinct spatial scales upon which space use studies should be characterised. Distribution and movement within a single reedbed can be considered local-scale, while spatial processes between reedbeds can be considered wide-scale. Temporal processes may act upon both of these scales. For example, changing interactions with predators may influence nest positioning at a local-scale, while seasonal changes in resource requirements might drive processes such as migration at a wide-scale. The Bearded Reedling has a wide temperate breeding range, extending over much of Eurasia. On the IUCN’s red list, it is listed as ‘of least concern’, with an estimated European population between 240,000-480,000 breeding pairs. Despite its relatively favourable conservation status, its dependence on reedbed habitats drives a fragmented distribution, with populations being concentrated in small, isolated, stands. Over the last century reedbed wetlands have suffered rapid declines caused by drainage schemes undertaken to improve land for development or agriculture. Additionally, many remaining reed stands are subject to extensive commercial management to produce thatch or biofuel. Conversely, in other areas, management is driven by conservation motives which recognise the present threats to reedbeds, and aim to encourage the diversity of species associated with these habitats. As the Bearded Reedling is fundamentally linked to the quality and structure of a reed stand, understanding the space use of this species will offer information for the direct conservation of this specialist species, and for the effects of reedbed management as a whole. This thesis first presents studies of space use at a local-scale. All local-scale research is conducted at the Tay Reedbeds in eastern Scotland. Mist netting and bird ringing data are used within capture recapture models, which include an explicit spatial component, to gain insight into the abundance of the Bearded Reedling on the Tay. This abundance estimation approach suggests the Tay reedbeds are a stronghold for this species on the British Isles, and that, as a high latitude site, the Tay may have importance for range expansion. A combination of transect surveys and radio-tracking data are then used to establish the local-scale space use of this species during the breeding and autumnal seasons. These data are related to changes in the structure of reed caused by local management in the form of mosaic winter reed cutting. Results suggest that birds exploit young and cut patches of reed as foraging resources when they are available, and that old, unmanaged reed is critical for nesting and winter foraging. Further local-scale studies concern the spatial patterns in the nesting habits of this species. Mosaic reed cutting creates clear edges in a reedbed. Artificial nests placed in the Tay Reedbeds demonstrate increased nest predation rates closer to the edges of cut patches. Additionally, high predation rates become reduced as the cut reed re-grows, suggesting that reed cutting may increase accessibility of the stand to predators. As Bearded Reedling nests are uncommon and difficult to locate, the timing, site selection and structure of a sample of real nests from the Tay is then detailed. These demonstrate an early, and relatively rigid breeding onset in this species, the importance of dense, compacted reeds as nesting sites and a degree of flexibility in nest structure. Conservation efforts will also benefit from studies into wide-scale spatial processes. These may be important when establishing how colonisation events occur and when predicting the effects of climatic change. The Bearded Reedling has been traditionally considered a resident species which only occasionally undertakes wide-scale, between-reedbed, movements. Indeed, the ecology of this species suggests strict year round local residency to reedbeds, with distinct seasonal changes in diet allowing occupation of these habitats year round. The European ringing recoveries of this species, since the 1970s are investigated to better characterise the wider movements of specialist resident. These suggest residency in southern populations, but higher instances of movement than expected in more northerly regions. In these regions wide-scale movement patterns resemble those of partial regular migratory species. An understanding of local and wide-scale spatial processes can offer a strong foundation on which to build conservation strategies. This thesis aims to use studies of space use to provide this foundation for the Bearded Reedling and offer further insight into the ecology of reedbed habitats as a whole. The thesis concludes by proposing an effective strategy for the conservation management of reedbeds that will especially benefit the Bearded Reedling.

Lack of geographic variation in Y-chromosomal introns of red deer (Cervus elaphus)

Intra-specific Y-chromosomal sequence variation is useful for analysing the male contribution to a species’ spatial genetic structure. In red deer (Cervus elaphus) this is especially relevant, because geographic dispersal and game translocations occur mainly through the males. However, Y-chromosomal markers for wild organisms are scarce and frequently non-polymorphic within species. We assessed the intra-specific variation of two Y-chromosomal introns in red deer, one in the DBY (or DDX3Y) gene and the other in the UBE1Y gene. The introns were amplified using previously published exonic primers and directly sequenced in individuals of five red deer subspecies from across Eurasia. However, no nucleotide polymorphism was observed, which rebuts the usefulness of these introns for studies of red deer phylogeography and on illegal transport of red deer within this region. Male-based phylogeographic studies should thus be focused on other Y-chromosomal markers for this species.

Lithic economy and territory of Epipaleolithic hunter–gatherers in the Middle Tagus: The case of Pena d'Água (Portugal)

In Central Portugal (westernmost Eurasia) the transition from the traditional Pleistocene hunter–gatherer societies to the complex Mesolithic societies of the Holocene has been debated for decades. While some argue that these differences were a progressive phenomenon that started with the shift from the Pleistocene to the Holocene, others defend that the Late Pleistocene patterns were fairly similar to those of the Epipaleolithic and that the major shift was rapid, dramatic and triggered by the necessary adaptation to the 8.2 ka cal BP (8.09–8.25 ka cal BP) climatic event. The study of lithic raw material provenance might be useful for this discussion, since it has been suggested that the Magdalenian and Epipaleolithic populations from this region were collecting this resources within a close range territory, whereas the Mesolithic populations were acquiring them at longer distances. In this paper, we present the results from p-XRF, VP-SEM-EDS and μ-XRD analysis done on the Epipaleolithic lithic assemblage from Pena d'Água Rockshelter, and in some geological samples from secondary sources located ∼14 km from this site. This layer is of major relevance for this debate since it is dated from 8.19 ka cal BP. If the transition was gradual, it would be expected that this assemblage would show some traits of higher-complexity seen in the Mesolithic, namely of longer distance acquisition. However, our results indicate correspondence between the archaeological chert types and some of the geological sources. The differences seen between the archaeological specimens and geological samples are mostly present in traits that can be related with manufacture, handling and post-depositional phenomena. The results suggest that, in what concerns to the economy of abiotic resources, the Epipaleolithic populations living at the time of the dramatic 8.2 ka cal BP cold event, were performing a short range acquisition of lithic raw materials which reinforces the idea of continuity from the Late Pleistocene to the 8.2 ka cal BP event and an abrupt and dramatic shift soon after this phenomena.

Literatura, Fronteiras e Margens: Poéticas Fronteiriças na Fronteira Brasil-Paraguai

RESUMO O artigo busca refletir sobre a intrincada relação entre literatura, fronteira(s) e margens como signos que acrescem renovados sentidos à leitura e à abordagem críticas de obras e de artefatos artístico-literários que emergem de/em contextos fronteiriços. Ressalta, dentre outros aspectos, o crescente interesse por experiências literárias e textualidades contemporâneas várias, cuja marca se traduz no atravessamento e na superação das fronteiras que tornavam em outros tempos, mais ou menos, identificáveis os diferentes campos da atuação artística, seus meios de produção e as ferramentas de abordagem teórico-críticas. Destaca, ainda, a flagrante eclosão de hermenêuticas fronteiriças, que atuam não só no sentido de ampliar as possibilidades de leitura e abordagem críticas, mas, também, de reacender as discussões e o interesse sobre as fronteiras e os limites da literatura e do literário, de modo a abrigar um conjunto de novíssimas textualidades que desafiam, por assim dizer, as concepções normativas destas noções, tornando evidente o aspecto reducionista de que estão cercadas. O trabalho se volta para uma fronteira bem específica: a do Brasil com o Paraguai; para o portunhol selvagem, de Douglas Diegues, como uma experiência literária paradigmática, no contexto da literatura contemporânea, ao assumir como projeto estético-político a superação das fronteiras geográficas, linguísticas e as da própria literatura, além de lançar luzes sobre expressões literárias outras, também circunscritas a esse espaço fronteiriço, como é o caso de Selva trágica (1956), por exemplo. A reflexão se dará com base nas teorias pós-coloniais e na crítica decolonial.Palavras-chave: Literatura de fronteira; Poéticas selvagens; textualidades fronteiriças.