Innovation sources and productivity: a quantile regression analysis

This paper explores the effects of two main sources of innovation —intramural and external R&D— on the productivity level in a sample of 3,267 Catalan firms. The data set used is based on the official innovation survey of Catalonia which was a part of the Spanish sample of CIS4, covering the years 2002-2004. We compare empirical results by applying usual OLS and quantile regression techniques both in manufacturing and services industries. In quantile regression, results suggest different patterns at both innovation sources as we move across conditional quantiles. The elasticity of intramural R&D activities on productivity decreased when we move up the high productivity levels both in manufacturing and services sectors, while the effects of external R&D rise in high-technology industries but are more ambiguous in low-technology and services industries.

Simulación de fluidos inmiscibles con el Particle Finite Element Method (PFEM)

Proyecto de investigación realizado a partir de una estancia en el Centro Internacional de Métodos Computacionales en Ingeniería (CIMEC), Argentina, entre febrero y abril del 2007. La simulación numérica de problemas de mezclas mediante el Particle Finite Element Method (PFEM) es el marco de estudio de una futura tesis doctoral. Éste es un método desarrollado conjuntamente por el CIMEC y el Centre Internacional de Mètodos Numèrics en l'Enginyeria (CIMNE-UPC), basado en la resolución de las ecuaciones de Navier-Stokes en formulación Lagrangiana. El mallador ha sido implementado y desarrollado por Dr. Nestor Calvo, investigador del CIMEC. El desarrollo del módulo de cálculo corresponde al trabajo de tesis de la beneficiaria. La correcta interacción entre ambas partes es fundamental para obtener resultados válidos. En esta memoria se explican los principales aspectos del mallador que fueron modificados (criterios de refinamiento geométrico) y los cambios introducidos en el módulo de cálculo (librería PETSc, algoritmo predictor-corrector) durante la estancia en el CIMEC. Por último, se muestran los resultados obtenidos en un problema de dos fluidos inmiscibles con transferencia de calor.

Oxidative potential for fine/ultrafine particles in occupational situations

Introduction : The redox properties of fine/ultrafine particles as well as nanoparticles (NP) are suggested to be important to explain their biological activity and could constitute a novel and promising metric for hazard evaluation. The acellular in vitro dithiothreitol (DTT) assay allows measuring this property. Objectives : (1) to evaluate sampling requirements for fine/ultrafine particle allowing measurement of their oxidative potential (2) to apply the methodology to occupational situations where particle from combustion sources are generated. Material and method : Sampling parameters (type of filters and loaded amount) and storage duration affecting the DTT measurements were evaluated. Based on these results, a methodological approach was defined and applied in two occupational situations where diesel and other combustion particles are present (toll station in a tunnel and mechanical yard for bus reparation). Results : Teflon filters loaded with diesel particles were found more suitable for the DTT assay, due to their better chemical inertness compared to quartz filters: after storage durations larger than 150 hours, an increased reactivity toward DTT was observed only with quartz filters. Reactivity was linearly correlated to the loaded mass until about 1000 μg/filter. Different redox reactivities were determined in both working places, with the mechanical yard presenting a higher DTT consumption rate. Discussion and conclusions : These results demonstrate the feasibility of this method to determine the oxidative potential of fine/ultrafine particles in occupational situations. We propose to include this approach for hazard assessment of work places with exposure to manufactured and other NP.

Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war

We propose an elementary theory of wars fought by fully rational contenders. Two parties play a Markov game that combines stages of bargaining with stages where one side has the ability to impose surrender on the other. Under uncertainty and incomplete information, in the unique equilibrium of the game, long confrontations occur: war arises when reality disappoints initial (rational) optimism, and it persist longer when both agents are optimists but reality proves both wrong. Bargaining proposals that are rejected initially might eventually be accepted after several periods of confrontation. We provide an explicit computation of the equilibrium, evaluating the probability of war, and its expected losses as a function of i) the costs of confrontation, ii) the asymmetry of the split imposed under surrender, and iii) the strengths of contenders at attack and defense. Changes in these parameters display non-monotonic effects.

Comparative studies on the growth and reproductive performances of Rhodnius prolixus reared on different blood sources

Host blood source was found to affect both the development and the reproductive performance of Rhodnius prolixus. The insects were reared on citrated human, rabbit, chicken, sheep and horse blood sources, through a membrane feeder, during an entire life cycle, from eggs to adults. Development and reproduction in terms of the number of unfed insects, number of moulting, mortality intermoulting period, number of egg/female, conversion of blood into egg (mg meal/egg) and percentage of hatch as effective physiological parameters were investigated. Our results showed that human or rabbit blood meals were more nutritionally efficient than the other blood samples used because (i) the insects developed faster, presented low mortality and about 80% of them reached the adult stage; and (ii) females oviposited an average of at least 100% more eggs. The inefficiency of chicken and horse blood sources as diets for R. prolixus was manifested in (i) a decrease of the amount of ingested blood and (ii) only a reasonable nutritional quality. The inadequacy of sheep blood was observed by a mortality extremely high, poor moulting response and drastic reduction in egg production.

On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.

Potential sources of biodynamically active natural products in Brazil

In contrast to China where vegatation is predominantly herbaceous, vegetation in Brazil is commonly arboreous. This fact may explain why Chinese drugs are usually acetate derived, while actual and potential natural therapeutic agents from Brazil are mostly shikimate derived. Only relatively few compounds isolated from Brazilian plants have been submitted to adequate pharmacological testing

Innovation sources and productivity in Catalonian firms: a quantile regression analysis

This paper explores the effects of two main sources of innovation - intramural and external R&D— on the productivity level in a sample of 3,267 Catalonian firms. The data set used is based on the official innovation survey of Catalonia which was a part of the Spanish sample of CIS4, covering the years 2002-2004. We compare empirical results by applying usual OLS and quantile regression techniques both in manufacturing and services industries. In quantile regression, results suggest different patterns at both innovation sources as we move across conditional quantiles. The elasticity of intramural R&D activities on productivity decreased when we move up the high productivity levels both in manufacturing and services sectors, while the effects of external R&D rise in high-technology industries but are more ambiguous in low-technology and knowledge-intensive services. JEL codes: O300, C100, O140 Keywords: Innovation sources, R&D, Productivity, Quantile Regression

Assessing the quality of alternative energy sources: Energy Return On the Investment (EROI), the metabolic pattern of societies and energy statistics

This paper presents an initial challenge to tackle the every so "tricky" points encountered when dealing with energy accounting, and thereafter illustrates how such a system of accounting can be used when assessing for the metabolic changes in societies. The paper is divided in four main sections. The first three, present a general discussion on the main issues encountered when conducting energy analyses. The last section, subsequently, combines this heuristic approach to the actual formalization of it, in quantitative terms, for the analysis of possible energy scenarios. Section one covers the broader issue of how to account for the relevant categories used when accounting for Joules of energy; emphasizing on the clear distinction between Primary Energy Sources (PES) (which are the physical exploited entities that are used to derive useable energy forms (energy carriers)) and Energy Carriers (EC) (the actual useful energy that is transmitted for the appropriate end uses within a society). Section two sheds light on the concept of Energy Return on Investment (EROI). Here, it is emphasized that, there must already be a certain amount of energy carriers available to be able to extract/exploit Primary Energy Sources to thereafter generate a net supply of energy carriers. It is pointed out that this current trend of intense energy supply has only been possible to the great use and dependence on fossil energy. Section three follows up on the discussion of EROI, indicating that a single numeric indicator such as an output/input ratio is not sufficient in assessing for the performance of energetic systems. Rather an integrated approach that incorporates (i) how big the net supply of Joules of EC can be, given an amount of extracted PES (the external constraints); (ii) how much EC needs to be invested to extract an amount of PES; and (iii) the power level that it takes for both processes to succeed, is underlined. Section four, ultimately, puts the theoretical concepts at play, assessing for how the metabolic performances of societies can be accounted for within this analytical framework.