Saving lives through better design standards /

Mode of access: Internet.

Building safer structures /

Mode of access: Internet.

Utah braces for the future.

Mode of access: Internet.

Averting surprises in the Pacific Northwest /

Mode of access: Internet.

Proposal on debt for climate adaptation swaps: a strategy for growth and economic transformation of Caribbean economies

ECLAC advocates that the Caribbean’s high debt dilemma was not principally driven by policy missteps, or the international financial crisis. Rather, it finds its roots in external shocks, compounded by the inherent structural weaknesses and vulnerabilities confronting Caribbean SIDS and their limited capacity to respond. A major factor has been the underperformance of the export sector, partly due to a decline in competitiveness and a slowdown in economic activity especially among the tourism-dependent economies. Caribbean countries have also accumulated debt as a consequence of increased expenditures to address the impact of extreme events and climate change attendant difficulties. Most Caribbean countries are located in the hurricane belt and are also prone to earthquakes and other hazards. Indeed, a disaster resulting in damage and losses in excess of 5 per cent of GDP can be expected to hit any Caribbean country every few years. Moreover, over the period 2000-2014, it is estimated that the economic cost of natural disasters in Caribbean countries was in excess of US$30.7 billion. The English Speaking Caribbean countries are extremely vulnerable to natural disasters.

Evaluation of Potential Post-Glacial Faults Using Bare-Earth LiDAR Topographic Data Near Ridley Island, British Columbia

I present results of my evaluation to identify topographic lineaments that are potentially related to post-glacial faulting using bare-earth LiDAR topographic data near Ridley Island, British Columbia. The purpose of this evaluation has been to review bare-earth LiDAR data for evidence of post-glacial faulting in the area surrounding Ridley Island and provide a map of the potential faults to review and possibly field check. My work consisted of an extensive literature review to understand the tectonic, geologic, glacial and sea level history of the area and analysis of bare-earth LiDAR data for Ridley Island and the surrounding region. Ridley Island and the surrounding north coast of British Columbia have a long and complex tectonic and geologic history. The north coast of British Columbia consists of a series of accreted terranes and some post-accretionary deposits. The accreted terranes were attached to the North American continent during subduction of the Pacific Plate between approximately 200 Ma and 10 Ma. The terrane and post-accretionary deposits are metamorphosed sedimentary, volcanic and intrusive rocks. The rocks have experienced significant deformation and been intruded by plutonic bodies. Approximately 10 Ma subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the North America Plate ceased along the central and north coast of British Columbia and the Queen Charlotte Fault Zone was formed. The Queen Charlotte Fault Zone is a transform-type fault that separates the Pacific Plate from the North America Plate. Within the past 1 million years, the area has experienced multiple glacial/interglacial cycles. The most recent glacial cycle occurred approximately 23,000 to 13,500 years ago. Few Quaternary deposits have been mapped in the area. The vast majority of seismicity around the northwest coast of British Columbia occurs along the Queen Charlotte Fault Zone. Numerous faults have been mapped in the area, but there is currently no evidence to suggest these faults are active (i.e. have evidence for post-glacial surface displacement or deformation). No earthquakes have been recorded within 50 km of Ridley Island. Several small earthquakes (less than magnitude 6) have been recorded within 100 km of the island. These earthquakes have not been correlated to active faults. GPS data suggests there is ongoing strain in the vicinity of Ridley Island. The strain has the potential to be released along faults, but the calculated strain may be a result of erroneous data or accommodated aseismically. Currently, the greatest known seismic hazard to Ridley Island is the Queen Charlotte Fault Zone. LiDAR data for Ridley Island, Digby Island, Lelu Island and portions of Kaien Island, Smith Island and the British Columbia mainland were reviewed and analyzed for evidence of postglacial faulting. The data showed a strong fabric across the landscape with a northwest-southeast trend that appears to mirror the observed foliation in the area. A total of 80 potential post-glacial faults were identified. Three lineaments are categorized as high, forty-one lineaments are categorized as medium and thirty-six lineaments are categorized as low. The identified features should be examined in the field to further assess potential activity. My analysis did not include areas outside of the LiDAR coverage; however faulting may be present there. LiDAR data analysis is only useful for detecting faults with surficial expressions. Faulting without obvious surficial expressions may be present in the study area.

A comparison of landslide inventories along the shoreline of Steamboat Island Peninsula, Thurston County, WA: office based protocol vs. field based protocol

The mountain ranges and coastlines of Washington State have steep slopes, and they are susceptible to landslides triggered by intense rainstorms, rapid snow melts, earthquakes, and rivers and waves removing slope stability. Over a 30-year timespan (1984-2014 and includes State Route (SR) 530), a total of 28 deep-seated landslides caused 300 million dollars of damage and 45 deaths (DGER, 2015). During that same timeframe, ten storm events triggered shallow landslides and debris flows across the state, resulting in nine deaths (DGER, 2015). The loss of 43 people, due to the SR 530 complex reactivating and moving at a rate and distance unexpected to residents, highlighted the need for an inventory of the stateís landslides. With only 13% of the state mapped (Lombardo et al., 2015), the intention of this statewide inventory is to communicate hazards to citizens and decision makers. In order to compile an accurate and consistent landslide inventory, Washington needs to adopt a graphic information system (GIS) based mapping protocol. A mapping protocol provides consistency for measuring and recording information about landslides, including such information as the type of landslide, the material involved, and the size of the movement. The state of Oregon shares similar landslide problems as Washington, and it created a GIS-based mapping protocol designed to inform its residents, while also saving money and reducing costly hours in the field (Burns and Madin, 2009). In order to determine if the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) protocol, developed by Burns and Madin (2009), could serve as the basis for establishing Washingtonís protocol, I used the office-based DOGAMI protocol to map landslides along a 40-50 km (25-30 mile) shoreline in Thurston County, Washington. I then compared my results to the field-based landslide inventory created in 2009 by the Washington Division of Geology and Earth Resources (DGER) along this same shoreline. If the landslide area I mapped reasonably equaled the area of the DGER (2009) inventory, I would consider the DOGAMI protocol useful for Washington, too. Utilizing 1m resolution lidar flown for Thurston County in 2011 and a GIS platform, I mapped 36 landslide deposits and scarp flanks, covering a total area of 879,530 m2 (9,467,160 ft2). I also found 48 recent events within these deposits. With an exception of two slides, all of the movements occurred within the last fifty years. Along this same coastline, the DGER (2009) recorded 159 individual landslides and complexes, for a total area of 3,256,570 m2 (35,053,400 ft2). At a first glance it appears the DGER (2009) effort found a larger total number and total area of landslides. However, in addition to their field inventory, they digitized landslides previously mapped by other researchers, and they did not field confirm these landslides, which cover a total area of 2,093,860 m2 (22,538,150 ft2) (DGER, 2009). With this questionable landslide area removed and the toes and underwater landslides accounted for because I did not have a bathymetry dataset, my results are within 6,580 m2 (70,840 ft2) of the DGERís results. This similarity shows that the DOGAMI protocol provides a consistent and accurate approach to creating a landslide inventory. With a few additional modifications, I recommend that Washington State adopts the DOGAMI protocol. Acquiring additional 1m lidar and adopting a modified DOGAMI protocol poises the DGER to map the remaining 87% of the state, with an ultimate goal of informing citizens and decision makers of the locations and frequencies of landslide hazards on a user-friendly GIS platform.

Seismically-Induced Rock-Slope Failure: Numerical Investigation using the Bonded Particle Model

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Formation of spinel from olivine

High-resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM) was used to study the olivine to spinel transformation. HRTEM structure images of Mg2GeO4 olivine deformed under a pressure of 6 GPa at 600 degreesC clearly show that a shear mechanism dominates the transformation. The transformation is not a nucleation and growth mechanism. It also differs in certain crucial aspects from the type of martensitic transformation proposed before. During the transformation, it is a shear movement that brings the oxygen anions to their positions in the spinel structure. An edge dislocation following each shear then puts the cations in their spinel sites. The Burgers' vector of each dislocation is perpendicular to the anion shear direction. (C) 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Statistical tests of load-unload response ratio signals by lattice solid model: Implication to tidal triggering and earthquake prediction

Statistical tests of Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) signals are carried in order to verify statistical robustness of the previous studies using the Lattice Solid Model (MORA et al., 2002b). In each case 24 groups of samples with the same macroscopic parameters (tidal perturbation amplitude A, period T and tectonic loading rate k) but different particle arrangements are employed. Results of uni-axial compression experiments show that before the normalized time of catastrophic failure, the ensemble average LURR value rises significantly, in agreement with the observations of high LURR prior to the large earthquakes. In shearing tests, two parameters are found to control the correlation between earthquake occurrence and tidal stress. One is, A/(kT) controlling the phase shift between the peak seismicity rate and the peak amplitude of the perturbation stress. With an increase of this parameter, the phase shift is found to decrease. Another parameter, AT/k, controls the height of the probability density function (Pdf) of modeled seismicity. As this parameter increases, the Pdf becomes sharper and narrower, indicating a strong triggering. Statistical studies of LURR signals in shearing tests also suggest that except in strong triggering cases, where LURR cannot be calculated due to poor data in unloading cycles, the larger events are more likely to occur in higher LURR periods than the smaller ones, supporting the LURR hypothesis.

Spatio-temporal scanning and statistical test of the accelerating moment release (AMR) model using Australian earthquake data

The Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) preceding earthquakes with magnitude above 5 in Australia that occurred during the last 20 years was analyzed to test the Critical Point Hypothesis. Twelve earthquakes in the catalog were chosen based on a criterion for the number of nearby events. Results show that seven sequences with numerous events recorded leading up to the main earthquake exhibited accelerating moment release. Two occurred near in time and space to other earthquakes preceded by AM R. The remaining three sequences had very few events in the catalog so the lack of AMR detected in the analysis may be related to catalog incompleteness. Spatio-temporal scanning of AMR parameters shows that 80% of the areas in which AMR occurred experienced large events. In areas of similar background seismicity with no large events, 10 out of 12 cases exhibit no AMR, and two others are false alarms where AMR was observed but no large event followed. The relationship between AMR and Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) was studied. Both methods predict similar critical region sizes, however, the critical point time using AMR is slightly earlier than the time of the critical point LURR anomaly.

Finite element analysis of fault bend influence on stick-slip instability along an intra-plate fault

Earthquakes have been recognized as resulting from stick-slip frictional instabilities along the faults between deformable rocks. A three-dimensional finite-element code for modeling the nonlinear frictional contact behaviors between deformable bodies with the node-to-point contact element strategy has been developed and applied here to investigate the fault geometry influence on the nucleation and development process of the stick-slip instability along an intra-plate fault through a typical fault bend model, which has a pre-cut fault that is artificially bent by an angle of 5.6degrees at the fault center. The numerical results demonstrate that the geometry of the fault significantly affects nucleation, termination and restart of the stick-slip instability along the intra-plate fault, and all these instability phenomena can be well simulated using the current finite-element algorithm.

A parallel implementation of the lattice solid model for the simulation of rock mechanics and earthquake dynamics

The Lattice Solid Model has been used successfully as a virtual laboratory to simulate fracturing of rocks, the dynamics of faults, earthquakes and gouge processes. However, results from those simulations show that in order to make the next step towards more realistic experiments it will be necessary to use models containing a significantly larger number of particles than current models. Thus, those simulations will require a greatly increased amount of computational resources. Whereas the computing power provided by single processors can be expected to increase according to Moore's law, i.e., to double every 18-24 months, parallel computers can provide significantly larger computing power today. In order to make this computing power available for the simulation of the microphysics of earthquakes, a parallel version of the Lattice Solid Model has been implemented. Benchmarks using large models with several millions of particles have shown that the parallel implementation of the Lattice Solid Model can achieve a high parallel-efficiency of about 80% for large numbers of processors on different computer architectures.

The displacement and strain field of three-dimensional rheologic model of earthquake preparation

Based on the three-dimensional elastic inclusion model proposed by Dobrovolskii, we developed a rheological inclusion model to study earthquake preparation processes. By using the Corresponding Principle in the theory of rheologic mechanics, we derived the analytic expressions of viscoelastic displacement U(r, t) , V(r, t) and W(r, t), normal strains epsilon(xx) (r, t), epsilon(yy) (r, t) and epsilon(zz) (r, t) and the bulk strain theta (r, t) at an arbitrary point (x, y, z) in three directions of X axis, Y axis and Z axis produced by a three-dimensional inclusion in the semi-infinite rheologic medium defined by the standard linear rheologic model. Subsequent to the spatial-temporal variation of bulk strain being computed on the ground produced by such a spherical rheologic inclusion, interesting results are obtained, suggesting that the bulk strain produced by a hard inclusion change with time according to three stages (alpha, beta, gamma) with different characteristics, similar to that of geodetic deformation observations, but different with the results of a soft inclusion. These theoretical results can be used to explain the characteristics of spatial-temporal evolution, patterns, quadrant-distribution of earthquake precursors, the changeability, spontaneity and complexity of short-term and imminent-term precursors. It offers a theoretical base to build physical models for earthquake precursors and to predict the earthquakes.

A unified friction description and its application to the simulation of frictional instability using the finite element method

This article first summarizes some available experimental results on the frictional behaviour of contact interfaces, and briefly recalls typical frictional experiments and relationships, which are applicable for rock mechanics, and then a unified description is obtained to describe the entire frictional behaviour. It is formulated based on the experimental results and applied with a stick and slip decomposition algorithm to describe the stick-slip instability phenomena, which can describe the effects observed in rock experiments without using the so-called state variable, thus avoiding related numerical difficulties. This has been implemented to our finite element code, which uses the node-to-point contact element strategy proposed by the authors to handle the frictional contact between multiple finite-deformation bodies with stick and finite frictional slip, and applied here to simulate the frictional behaviour of rocks to show its usefulness and efficiency.