World emissions and economic growth: Application of non-parametric methods

The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesises an inverse U-shaped relationship between a measure of environmental pollution and per capita income levels. In this study, we apply non-parametric estimation of local polynomial regression (local quadratic fitting) to allow more flexibility in local estimation. This study uses a larger and globally representative sample of many local and global pollutants and natural resources including Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD) emission, CO2 emission, CO2 damage, energy use, energy depletion, mineral depletion, improved water source, PM10, particulate emission damage, forest area and net forest depletion. Copyright © 2009 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Energy price-induced and exogenous technological change : Assessing the economic and environmental outcomes

In this paper, we distinguish between factor/output substitution and shifts in the production technology frontier. Our model includes the by-products of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions where the function requires the simultaneous expansion of good outputs and reductions in emissions. We estimate a directional output distance function for 80 countries over the period 1971-2000 to measure the exogenous and oil price-induced technological change. On average, we find substantial oil price-induced technological progress at the world level when long-term oil prices are rising, although the growth rate is more volatile in developed countries than in developing countries. The results also show that developed countries experience higher exogenous technological progress in comparison with developing countries, and the gap between the two has increased during the period of our study.

Chinese economic development and the environment

Over the past two decades, China has become an economic powerhouse. However, as the world’s largest producer of CO2 emissions, the scale and seriousness of China’s environmental problems are clearly evident. This pioneering book provides an economic analysis of the significant environmental and energy problems facing China in the 21st century.

Trade-induced technological change : analyzing economic and environmental outcomes

We analyze how changes in trade openness are related to induced technological innovations that are not only GDP increasing but also pollution saving. Our model includes by-products of carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions. We estimate a directional distance function for 76 countries over the period 1963-2000 to measure exogenous and trade-induced technological change. On average, we find substantial trade-induced technological progress, and its magnitude is about one third of the overall technological change. The trade-induced technological changes, however, are GDP reducing and pollution increasing. Empirically, we find that increased trade openness correlates to increased pollution.

Understanding the quantitative skill base on introductory statistics : a case study from business statistics

Basic mathematical skills are critical to a student’s ability to successfully undertake an introductory statistics course. Yet in business education this vitally important area of mathematics and statistics education is under-researched. The question therefore arises as to what level of mathematical skill a typical business studies student will possess as they enter the tertiary environment, and whether there are any common deficiencies that we can identify with a view to tackling the problem. This paper will focus on a study designed to measure the level of mathematical ability of first year business students. The results provide timely insight into a growing problem faced by many tertiary educators in this field.

UNICEF, Jakarta, Indonesia : Review of Satap Schools

A. Background and context 1. Education, particularly basic education (grades1-9), has been considered critical to promoting national economic growth and social well being1. Three factors that con-tribute to the above are: (i) Education increases human capital inherent in a labor force and thus increases productivity. It also increases capacity for working with others and builds community consensus to support national development. (ii) Education can in-crease the innovative capacity of a community to support social and economic growth—use of new technologies, products and services to promote growth and wellbeing. (iii) Education can facilitate knowledge transfer needed to understand the social and eco-nomic innovations and new processes, practices and values. Cognizant of the above benefits of education, the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) and the Education for All (EFA) declarations advocating universal basic education were formulated and ratified by UN member countries. 2. Achieving universal primary education (grade 6) may not be sufficient to maxim-ize the above noted socio-economic and cultural benefits. There is general consensus that basic literacy and numeracy up to grade 9 are essential foundational blocks for any good education system to support national development. Basic Education provides an educational achievement threshold that ensures the learning is retained. To achieve this, the donor partner led interventions and the UN declarations such as the MDG goals have sought universal access to basic education (grades 1-9). As many countries progress towards achieving the universal access targets, recent research evidence suggests that we need more than just access to basic education to impact on the na-tional development. Measuring basic education completion cycle, gross enrolment rate (GER) and participation rate etc., has to now include a focus on quality and relevance of the education2. 3. While the above research finding is generally accepted by the Government of In-donesia (GoI), unlike many other developing countries, Indonesia is geographically and linguistically complex and has the fourth largest education sector in the world. It has over 3000 islands, 17,000 ethnic groups and it takes as long as 7 hours to travel from east to west of the country and has multiple time differences. The education system has six years of primary education (grades 1-6), 3 years of junior secondary education (grades 7-9) and three years of senior secondary education (grades 10-12). Therefore, applying the findings of the above cited research in a country like Indonesia is a chal-lenge. Nevertheless, since the adoption of the National Education Law (2003)3 the GoI has made significant progress in improving access to and quality of basic education (grades 1-9). The 2011/12 national education statistics show the primary education (grades 1-6) completion rate was 99.3%, the net enrolment rate (NER) was 95.4% and the GER was 115.4%. This is a significant achievement considering the complexities faced within Indonesia. This increase in the primary education sub-sector, however, has not flowed onto the Junior Secondary School (JSS) education. The transition from pri-mary to JSS is still short of the GoI targets. In 2012, there were 146,826 primary schools feeding into 33,668 junior secondary schools. The transition rate from primary to secondary in 2011/12 was 78%. When considering district or sub-district level data the transition in poor districts could be less than the aggregated national rate. Poverty and lack of parents’ education, confounded by opportunity cost, are major obstacles to transitioning to JSS4. 4. Table 1 presents a summary of GoI initiatives to accelerate the transition to JSS. GoI, with assistance from the donor community, has built 2465 new regular JSS, mak-ing the total number of regular JSS 33,668. In addition, 57,825 new classrooms have been added to existing regular JSS. Also, in rural and remote areas 4136 Satu-Atap5 (SATAP) schools were built to increase access to JSS. These SATAP schools are the focus of this study as they provide education opportunities to the most marginalized, ru-ral, remote children who otherwise would not have access to JSS and consequently not complete basic education.

Quantifying economic values of coastal and marine ecosystem services and assessing their use in decision-making : applications in New Caledonia and Australia

This thesis deals with the issues of quantifying economic values of coastal and marine ecosystem services and assessing their use in decision-making. The first analytical part of the thesis focuses on estimating non-market use and non-use values, with an application in New-Caledonia using Discrete Choice Experiment. The second part examines how and to what extent the economic valuation of ecosystem services is used in coastal management decision-making with an application in Australia. Using a multi-criteria analysis, the relative importance of ecological, social and economic evaluation criteria is also assessed in the context of coastal development.

Age, physical inactivity, obesity, health conditions, and health-related quality of life among patients receiving conservative management for musculoskeletal disorders

Background Musculoskeletal conditions and insufficient physical activity have substantial personal and economic costs among contemporary aging societies. This study examined the age distribution, comorbid health conditions, body mass index (BMI), self-reported physical activity levels, and health-related quality of life of patients accessing ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders. The study also investigated whether comorbidity, BMI, and self-reported physical activity were associated with patients’ health-related quality of life after adjusting for age as a potential confounder. Methods A cross-sectional survey was undertaken in three ambulatory hospital clinics for musculoskeletal disorders. Participants (n=224) reported their reason for referral, age, comorbid health conditions, BMI, physical activity levels (Active Australia Survey), and health-related quality of life (EQ-5D). Descriptive statistics and linear modeling were used to examine the associations between age, comorbidity, BMI, intensity and duration of physical activity, and health-related quality of life. Results The majority of patients (n=115, 51.3%) reported two or more comorbidities. In addition to other musculoskeletal conditions, common comorbidities included depression (n=41, 18.3%), hypertension (n=40, 17.9%), and diabetes (n=39, 17.4%). Approximately one-half of participants (n=110, 49.1%) self-reported insufficient physical activity to meet minimum recommended guidelines and 150 (67.0%) were overweight (n=56, 23.2%), obese (n=64, 28.6%), severely obese (n=16, 7.1%), or very severely obese (n=14, 6.3%), with a higher proportion of older patients affected. A generalized linear model indicated that, after adjusting for age, self-reported physical activity was positively associated (z=4.22, P<0.001), and comorbidities were negatively associated (z=-2.67, P<0.01) with patients’ health-related quality of life. Conclusion Older patients were more frequently affected by undesirable clinical attributes of comorbidity, obesity, and physical inactivity. However, findings from this investigation are compelling for the care of patients of all ages. Potential integration of physical activity behavior change or other effective lifestyle interventions into models of care for patients with musculoskeletal disorders is worthy of further investigation.

A contextual analysis of secondary home economic teachers' agency in a time of mandatory curriculum change

This qualitative research explored secondary Home Economics teachers' perceptions of their teacher agency to influence classroom, department and school level curriculum decision making. Teachers responded to curriculum change with proactive, reactive and/or passive agency. Findings indicated that teachers' perceptions of their classroom agency remained high. However, agency decreased at department and school levels. Recent changes in schools as a result of the Australian Curriculum; NAPLAN and Queensland Studies Authority have resulted in changes that have been detrimental to teacher agency. Agency was enacted differently depending on whether change was teacher initiated or mandated by authority.

Modelling the water, energy and economic nexus

The mining industry faces three long term strategic risks in relation to its water and energy use: 1) securing enough water and energy to meet increased production; 2) reducing water use, energy consumption and emissions due to social, environmental and economic pressures; and 3) understanding the links between water and energy, so that an improvement in one area does not create an adverse effect in another. This project helps the industry analyse these risks by creating a hierarchical systems model (HSM) that represents the water and energy interactions on a sub-site, site and regional scales; which is coupled with a flexible risk framework. The HSM consists of: components that represent sources of water and energy; activities that use water and energy and off-site destinations of water and produced emissions. It can also represent more complex components on a site, with inbuilt examples including tailings dams and water treatment plants. The HSM also allows multiple sites and other infrastructure to be connected together to explore regional water and energy interactions. By representing water and energy as a single interconnected system the HSM can explore tradeoffs and synergies. For example, on a synthetic case study, which represents a typical site, simulations suggested that while a synergy in terms of water use and energy use could be made when chemical additives were used to enhance dust suppression, there were trade-offs when either thickened tailings or dry processing were used. On a regional scale, the HSM was used to simulate various scenarios, including: mines only withdrawing water when needed; achieving economics-of-scale through use of a single centralised treatment plant rather than smaller decentralised treatment plants; and capturing of fugitive emissions for energy generation. The HSM also includes an integrated risk framework for interpreting model output, so that onsite and off-site impacts of various water and energy management strategies can be compared in a managerial context. The case studies in this report explored company, social and environmental risks for scenarios of regional water scarcity, unregulated saline discharge, and the use of plantation forestry to offset carbon emissions. The HSM was able to represent the non-linear causal relationship at the regional scale, such as the forestry scheme offsetting a small percentage of carbon emissions but causing severe regional water shortages. The HSM software developed in this project will be released as an open source tool to allow industry personnel to easily and inexpensively quantify and explore the links between water use, energy use, and carbon emissions. The tool can be easily adapted to represent specific sites or regions. Case studies conducted in this project highlighted the potential complexity of these links between water, energy, and carbon emissions, as well as the significance of the cumulative effects of these links over time. A deeper understanding of these links is vital for the mining industry in order to progress to more sustainable operations, and the HSM provides an accessible, robust framework for investigating these links.

Clinical and economic outcomes of nutrition interventions across the continuum of care

Optimal nutrition across the continuum of care plays a key role in the short- and long-term clinical and economic outcomes of patients. Worldwide, an estimated one-quarter to one-half of patients admitted to hospitals each year are malnourished. Malnutrition can increase healthcare costs by delaying patient recovery and rehabilitation and increasing the risk of medical complications. Nutrition interventions have the potential to provide cost-effective preventive care and treatment measures. However, limited data exist on the economics and impact evaluations of these interventions. In this report, nutrition and health system researchers, clinicians, economists, and policymakers discuss emerging global research on nutrition health economics, the role of nutrition interventions across the continuum of care, and how nutrition can affect healthcare costs in the context of hospital malnutrition.

Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia

Economic conditions around the world are likely to deteriorate in the short to medium term. The potential impact of this crisis on the spread of HIV is not clear. Government revenues and aid flows from international donors may face constraints, possibly leading to reductions in funding for HIV programs. Economic conditions (leading to increases in unemployment, for example) may also have an indirect impact on HIV epidemics by affecting the behaviour of individual people. Some behavioural changes may influence the rate of HIV transmission. This report presents findings from a study that investigates the potential impact of the economic crisis on HIV epidemics through the use of mathematical modelling. The potential epidemiological impacts of changes in the economy are explored for two distinctly characterised HIV epidemics: (i) a well-defined, established, and generalised HIV epidemic (specifically Cambodia, where incidence is declining); (ii) an HIV epidemic in its early expansion phase (specifically Papua New Guinea, where incidence has not yet peaked). Country-specific data are used for both settings and the models calibrated to accurately reflect the unique HIV epidemics in each population in terms of both incidence and prevalence. Models calibrated to describe the past and present epidemics are then used to forecast epidemic trajectories over the next few years under assumptions that behavioural or program conditions may change due to economic conditions. It should be noted that there are very limited solid data on how HIV/AIDS program funds may decrease or how social determinants related to HIV risk may change due to the economic crisis. Potential changes in key relevant factors were explored, along with sensitivity ranges around these assumptions, based on extensive discussions with in-country and international experts and stakeholders. As with all mathematical models, assumptions should be reviewed critically and results interpreted cautiously.

An economic case for providing free access to antiretroviral therapy for HIV-positive people in South Australia

Background As financial constraints can be a barrier to accessing HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART), we argue for the removal of copayment requirements from HIV medications in South Australia. Methods Using a simple mathematical model informed by available behavioural and biological data and reflecting the HIV epidemiology in South Australia, we calculated the expected number of new HIV transmissions caused by persons who are not currently on ART compared with transmissions for people on ART. The extra financial investment required to cover the copayments to prevent an HIV infection was compared with the treatment costs saved due to averting HIV infections. Results It was estimated that one HIV infection is prevented per year for every 31.4 persons (median, 24.0–42.7 interquartile range (IQR)) who receive treatment. By considering the incremental change in costs and outcomes of a change in program from the current status quo, it would cost the health sector $17 860 per infection averted (median, $13 651–24 287 IQR) if ART is provided as a three-dose, three-drug combination without requirements for user-pay copayments. Conclusions The costs of removing copayment fees for ART are less than the costs of treating extra HIV infections that would result under current conditions. Removing the copayment requirement for HIV medication would be cost-effective from a governmental perspective.