Bayesian Prediction of Weibull Distribution Based on Fixed and Random Sample Size

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62E16, 65C05, 65C20.

Dark matter in dwarf irregular galaxies, DDO 210 and DDO 169

It has been proposed that dwarf irregular galaxies can be separated into two classes based on their formation mechanism; that they are the result of the collapse of a primordial gas cloud or that they are the product of condensation of gas in the tidal tails of interacting galaxies. Simulations of galaxy interactions indicate that one can differentiate between these two scenarios by the dark matter content, with a low dark matter content indicating a fossil tidal dwarf. The purpose of this dissertation was to explore the dark matter distribution of two dwarf irregular galaxies using optical and neutral atomic hydrogen data. For DDO 210, the method of mass-modelling was used to determine its dark matter. About 64% of the galaxy mass was calculated to be in the form of dark matter and hence it is unlikely to be a fossil tidal dwarf. The method of mass-modelling could not be used for DDO 169 as the galaxy shows evidence of being tidally disrupted and hence, has a disturbed velocity field. Instead, the suggestion that dark matter might be responsible for a pressure anomaly in DDO 169 was tested to determine its dark matter content. According to this method, a pressure anomaly does exist but without a concrete value for the scale-height, it is unclear whether the anomaly is due to the presence of dark matter. Hence one cannot say how much dark matter might actually be present in DDO 169. A rotation curve would be required to do this. ^

From theory-inspired to theory-based interventions : A protocol for developing and testing a methodology for linking behaviour change techniques to theoretical mechanisms of action

This research is funded by UK Medical Research Council grant number MR/L011115/1

From Theory-Inspired to Theory-Based Interventions : A Protocol for Developing and Testing a Methodology for Linking Behaviour Change Techniques to Theoretical Mechanisms of Action

This research is funded by UK Medical Research Council grant number MR/L011115/1. We would like to thank the 105 experts in behaviour change who have committed their time and offered their expertise for study 2 of this research. We are also very grateful to all those who sent us peer-reviewed behaviour change intervention descriptions for study 1. Finally, we would like thank Dr. Emma Beard and Dr. Dan Dediu for their statistical input and to all the researchers, particularly Holly Walton, who have assisted in the coding of papers for study 1.

Computer-based tools for assessing micro-longitudinal patterns of cognitive function in older adults

Patterns of cognitive change over micro-longitudinal timescales (i.e., ranging from hours to days) are associated with a wide range of age-related health and functional outcomes. However, practical issues with conducting high-frequency assessments make investigations of micro-longitudinal cognition costly and burdensome to run. One way of addressing this is to develop cognitive assessments that can be performed by older adults, in their own homes, without a researcher being present. Here, we address the question of whether reliable and valid cognitive data can be collected over micro-longitudinal timescales using unsupervised cognitive tests.In study 1, 48 older adults completed two touchscreen cognitive tests, on three occasions, in controlled conditions, alongside a battery of standard tests of cognitive functions. In study 2, 40 older adults completed the same two computerized tasks on multiple occasions, over three separate week-long periods, in their own homes, without a researcher present. Here, the tasks were incorporated into a wider touchscreen system (Novel Assessment of Nutrition and Ageing (NANA)) developed to assess multiple domains of health and behavior. Standard tests of cognitive function were also administered prior to participants using the NANA system.Performance on the two “NANA” cognitive tasks showed convergent validity with, and similar levels of reliability to, the standard cognitive battery in both studies. Completion and accuracy rates were also very high. These results show that reliable and valid cognitive data can be collected from older adults using unsupervised computerized tests, thus affording new opportunities for the investigation of cognitive function.

The Califa and Hipass circular velocity function for all morphological galaxy types

The velocity function (VF) is a fundamental observable statistic of the galaxy population that is similar to the luminosity function in importance, but much more difficult to measure. In this work we present the first directly measured circular VF that is representative between 60 < v_circ < 320 km s^-1 for galaxies of all morphological types at a given rotation velocity. For the low-mass galaxy population (60 < v_circ < 170 km s^-1), we use the HI Parkes All Sky Survey VF. For the massive galaxy population (170 < v_circ < 320 km s^-1), we use stellar circular velocities from the Calar Alto Legacy Integral Field Area Survey (CALIFA). In earlier work we obtained the measurements of circular velocity at the 80% light radius for 226 galaxies and demonstrated that the CALIFA sample can produce volume-corrected galaxy distribution functions. The CALIFA VF includes homogeneous velocity measurements of both late and early-type rotation-supported galaxies and has the crucial advantage of not missing gas-poor massive ellipticals that HI surveys are blind to. We show that both VFs can be combined in a seamless manner, as their ranges of validity overlap. The resulting observed VF is compared to VFs derived from cosmological simulations of the z = 0 galaxy population. We find that dark-matter-only simulations show a strong mismatch with the observed VF. Hydrodynamic simulations fare better, but still do not fully reproduce observations.

Censored Linear Regression Models For Irregularly Observed Longitudinal Data Using The Multivariate-t Distribution.

In acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) studies it is quite common to observe viral load measurements collected irregularly over time. Moreover, these measurements can be subjected to some upper and/or lower detection limits depending on the quantification assays. A complication arises when these continuous repeated measures have a heavy-tailed behavior. For such data structures, we propose a robust structure for a censored linear model based on the multivariate Student's t-distribution. To compensate for the autocorrelation existing among irregularly observed measures, a damped exponential correlation structure is employed. An efficient expectation maximization type algorithm is developed for computing the maximum likelihood estimates, obtaining as a by-product the standard errors of the fixed effects and the log-likelihood function. The proposed algorithm uses closed-form expressions at the E-step that rely on formulas for the mean and variance of a truncated multivariate Student's t-distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to an Human Immunodeficiency Virus-AIDS (HIV-AIDS) study and several simulation studies.

Geographical Distribution Of The Association Between El Niño South Oscillation And Dengue Fever In The Americas: A Continental Analysis Using Geographical Information System-based Techniques.

El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO) is one climatic phenomenon related to the inter-annual variability of global meteorological patterns influencing sea surface temperature and rainfall variability. It influences human health indirectly through extreme temperature and moisture conditions that may accelerate the spread of some vector-borne viral diseases, like dengue fever (DF). This work examines the spatial distribution of association between ENSO and DF in the countries of the Americas during 1995-2004, which includes the 1997-1998 El Niño, one of the most important climatic events of 20(th) century. Data regarding the South Oscillation index (SOI), indicating El Niño-La Niña activity, were obtained from Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The annual DF incidence (AIy) by country was computed using Pan-American Health Association data. SOI and AIy values were standardised as deviations from the mean and plotted in bars-line graphics. The regression coefficient values between SOI and AIy (rSOI,AI) were calculated and spatially interpolated by an inverse distance weighted algorithm. The results indicate that among the five years registering high number of cases (1998, 2002, 2001, 2003 and 1997), four had El Niño activity. In the southern hemisphere, the annual spatial weighted mean centre of epidemics moved southward, from 6° 31' S in 1995 to 21° 12' S in 1999 and the rSOI,AI values were negative in Cuba, Belize, Guyana and Costa Rica, indicating a synchrony between higher DF incidence rates and a higher El Niño activity. The rSOI,AI map allows visualisation of a graded surface with higher values of ENSO-DF associations for Mexico, Central America, northern Caribbean islands and the extreme north-northwest of South America.

The ichthyofauna of upper rio Capivari: defining conservation strategies based on the composition and distribution of fish species

Although the rio Capivari basin is recognized as an area of great importance for the ichthyofauna, it lacks virtually every basic requirement for the definition of appropriate conservation strategies, since not even its species composition is known. The objective of this work is to determine the composition and distribution of fish species in the upper rio Capivari basin, relating them to the local physical features, and to evaluate the effectiveness of proposed conservations units, delimited based on areas of native vegetation remains, on the conservation of local ichthyofauna. During 2007, 50 different watercourses were sampled with gillnets, cast nets and kick nets. A total of 1308 individuals belonging to 41 species were captured. Degree of conservation, altitude and width were the parameters that best explained fish species richness. Considering the recently proposed boundaries for potential conservation units in the region only 15 or 20 out of 41 species would be found in the State Park and Environmental Protection Area respectively. In practice, the proposed conservation units would not be effective tools for fish conservation, since it would be located in mountainous areas of high altitude, of headwaters streams and where few species are found. In such context, the conservation of specific stretches of larger rivers is critical.

The Relationship between Population Structure and Aluminum Tolerance in Cultivated Sorghum

Background: Acid soils comprise up to 50% of the world's arable lands and in these areas aluminum (Al) toxicity impairs root growth, strongly limiting crop yield. Food security is thereby compromised in many developing countries located in tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. In sorghum, SbMATE, an Al-activated citrate transporter, underlies the Alt(SB) locus on chromosome 3 and confers Al tolerance via Al-activated root citrate release. Methodology: Population structure was studied in 254 sorghum accessions representative of the diversity present in cultivated sorghums. Al tolerance was assessed as the degree of root growth inhibition in nutrient solution containing Al. A genetic analysis based on markers flanking Alt(SB) and SbMATE expression was undertaken to assess a possible role for Alt(SB) in Al tolerant accessions. In addition, the mode of gene action was estimated concerning the Al tolerance trait. Comparisons between models that include population structure were applied to assess the importance of each subpopulation to Al tolerance. Conclusion/Significance: Six subpopulations were revealed featuring specific racial and geographic origins. Al tolerance was found to be rather rare and present primarily in guinea and to lesser extent in caudatum subpopulations. Alt(SB) was found to play a role in Al tolerance in most of the Al tolerant accessions. A striking variation was observed in the mode of gene action for the Al tolerance trait, which ranged from almost complete recessivity to near complete dominance, with a higher frequency of partially recessive sources of Al tolerance. A possible interpretation of our results concerning the origin and evolution of Al tolerance in cultivated sorghum is discussed. This study demonstrates the importance of deeply exploring the crop diversity reservoir both for a comprehensive view of the dynamics underlying the distribution and function of Al tolerance genes and to design efficient molecular breeding strategies aimed at enhancing Al tolerance.

Skewed Distribution of Circulating Activated Natural Killer T (NKT) Cells in Patients with Common Variable Immunodeficiency Disorders (CVID)

Common variable immunodeficiency disorder (CVID) is the commonest cause of primary antibody failure in adults and children, and characterized clinically by recurrent bacterial infections and autoimmune manifestations. Several innate immune defects have been described in CVID, but no study has yet investigated the frequency, phenotype or function of the key regulatory cell population, natural killer T (NKT) cells. We measured the frequencies and subsets of NKT cells in patients with CVID and compared these to healthy controls. Our results show a skewing of NKT cell subsets, with CD4+ NKT cells at higher frequencies, and CD8+ NKT cells at lower frequencies. However, these cells were highly activated and expression CD161. The NKT cells had a higher expression of CCR5 and concomitantly expression of CCR5+CD69+CXCR6 suggesting a compensation of the remaining population of NKT cells for rapid effector action.

SSSPM J1102-3431 brown dwarf characterization from accurate proper motion and trigonometric parallax

Context. In 2005, Scholz and collaborators discovered, in a proper motion survey, a young brown dwarf SSSPM J1102-3431 (SSSPM J1102) of spectral type M8.5, probable member of the TW Hydrae Association and possible companion of the T Tauri star TWHya. The physical characterization of SSSPM J1102 was based on the hypothesis that it forms a binary system with TWHya. The recent discovery of a probable giant planet with a very short-period inside the TW Hya protoplanetary disk, as well as a disk around SSSPM J1102, make it especially interesting and important to measure well the physical parameters of SSSPM J1102. Aims. Trigonometric parallax and proper motion measurements of SSSPM J1102 are necessary to test for TWA membership and, thus, to determine the mass and age of this young brown dwarf and the possibility that it forms a wide binary system with TW Hya. Methods. Two years of regular observations at the ESO NTT/SUSI2 telescope have enabled us to determine the trigonometric parallax and proper motion of SSSPM J1102. Results. With our accurate distance determination of 55.2(-1.4)(+1.6) pc and proper motions of (-67.2, -14.0) +/- 0.6 mas/yr, we could confirm SSSPM J1102 as a very probable member of TWA. Assuming the TW Hydrae association age of 5-10 Myr, the evolutionary models compared to the photometry of this young brown dwarf indicate a mass of M = 25 +/- 5 M(Jup) and an effective temperature T(eff) = 2550 +/- 100 K. Conclusions. Our parallax and proper motion determination allow us to precisely describe the physical properties of this low mass object and to confirm its TWA membership. Our results indicate that SSSPMJ1102 may be a very wide separation companion of the star TW Hya.

Chemical evolution of the Galactic bulge as traced by microlensed dwarf and subgiant stars III. Detection of lithium in the metal-poor bulge dwarf MOA-2010-BLG-285S

Context. To study the evolution of Li in the Galaxy it is necessary to observe dwarf or subgiant stars. These are the only long-lived stars whose present-day atmospheric chemical composition reflects their natal Li abundances according to standard models of stellar evolution. Although Li has been extensively studied in the Galactic disk and halo, to date there has only been one uncertain detection of Li in an unevolved bulge star. Aims. Our aim with this study is to provide the first clear detection of Li in the Galactic bulge, based on an analysis of a dwarf star that has largely retained its initial Li abundance. Methods. We performed a detailed elemental abundance analysis of the bulge dwarf star MOA-2010-BLG-285S using a high-resolution and high signal-to-noise spectrum obtained with the UVES spectrograph at the VLT when the object was optically magnified during a gravitational microlensing event (visual magnification A similar to 550 during observation). The Li abundance was determined through synthetic line profile fitting of the (7)Li resonance doublet line at 670.8 nm. The results have been corrected for departures from LTE. Results. MOA-2010-BLG-285S is, at [Fe/H] = -1.23, the most metal-poor dwarf star detected so far in the Galactic bulge. Its old age (12.5 Gyr) and enhanced [alpha/Fe] ratios agree well with stars in the thick disk at similar metallicities. This star represents the first unambiguous detection of Li in a metal-poor dwarf star in the Galactic bulge. We find an NLTE corrected Li abundance of log epsilon(Li) = 2.16, which is consistent with values derived for Galactic disk and halo dwarf stars at similar metallicities and temperatures. Conclusions. Our results show that there are no signs of Li enrichment or production in the Galactic bulge during its earliest phases. Observations of Li in other galaxies (omega Cen) and other components of the Galaxy suggest further that the Spite plateau is universal.

Age distribution of the central stars of galactic disk planetary nebulae

Context. Determination of the ages of central stars of planetary nebulae (CSPN) is a complex problem, and there is presently no single method that can be generally applied. We have developed several methods of estimating the ages of CSPN, based on both the observed nebular properties and some properties of the stars themselves. Aims. Our aim is to estimate the ages and the age distribution of CSPN and to compare the derived results with mass and age determinations of CSPN and white dwarfs based on empirical determinations of these quantities. Methods. We considered a sample of planetary nebulae in the galactic disk, most of which (similar to 69%) are located in the solar neighbourhood, within 3 kpc from the Sun. We discuss several methods of deriving the age distribution of CSPN, namely; (i) the use of an age-metallicity relation that also depends on the galactocentric distance; (ii) the use of an age-metallicity relation obtained for the galactic disk; and (iii) the determination of ages from the central star masses obtained from the observed nitrogen abundances. Results. We estimated the age distribution of CSPN with average uncertainties of 1-2 Gyr, and compared our results with the expected distribution based both on the observed mass distribution of white dwarfs and on the age distribution derived from available mass distributions of CSPN. Based on our derived age distributions, we conclude that most CSPN in the galactic disk have ages under 6 Gyr, and that the age distribution is peaked around 2-4 Gyr.

MASS DISTRIBUTION IN HICKSON COMPACT GROUPS OF GALAXIES

This study presents the mass distribution for a sample of 18 late-type galaxies in nine Hickson compact groups. We used Ha rotation curves (RCs) from high-resolution two-dimensional velocity fields of Fabry-Perot observations and the J-band photometry from the Two Micron All Sky Survey, in order to determine the dark halo and the visible matter distributions. The study compares two halo density profiles, an isothermal core-like distribution, and a cuspy one. We also compare their visible and dark matter distributions with those of galaxies belonging to cluster and field galaxies coming from two samples: 40 cluster galaxies of Barnes et al. and 35 field galaxies of Spano et al. The central halo surface density is found to be constant with respect to the total absolute magnitude similar to what is found for the isolated galaxies. This suggests that the halo density is independent of galaxy type and environment. We have found that core-like density profiles better fit the RCs than cuspy-like ones. No major differences have been found between field, cluster, and compact group galaxies with respect to their dark halo density profiles.